Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[mighty_tiger_79]

I'm on LPH

Waller has 4 confirmed runners with jocks booked in.

It's his race to lose

[JK]

Chris Waller confirms Who Shot Thebarman for Caulfield Cup start.
Currently $26 on Sportsbet for 4 Places - Get On Lads
He was 'cuddled' to the line in the Turnbull.
As I said last week, he's 'thrown in' @ the weights with 54.5 kgs - Giddy Up

Not sure about Caulfield but like it for the Cup

[LPH]

I'm on LPH

Waller has 4 confirmed runners with jocks booked in.

It's his race to lose

If he draws inside Barrier 10 - I seriously think he's going to be very hard to beat.
The Japanese Horse is very good - the talk is he is very similar to Delta Blues.
JK - I just think the weight advantage is huge & I reckon as a result, Waller has set this horse for the Caulfield Cup this time in - 4th Up.
With 4 Place Dividends $6.50 the Place @ this point is too good not to have an Each Way Ticket - he will be running on from the 500m on the bend.
I think he 'profiles' very similar to 2007 winner Master O'Reilly.

Waller's Derby Horse from last year, Preferment, is his Melbourne Cup Horse IMHO - reckon he'll run in the Cox Plate & should top him off nicely, which will mean he's 5th Up in the Cup.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Bossy rode the Barman last spring and declared it a genuine Cup chance.

It didn't run but it does have another season under its belt

[OnSong]

A mate of mine has a share of Little Indian, ran second in the first at Mornington yesterday. Finished with a head of steam, unlucky to go down.
Keep an eye out for it.

Accepted for Race 1 at Caulfield on Saturday. 1200m, so an extra 200m and good track. Chris Parnham aboard.
Following this one with interest.

Replay of its fast finish at Mornington on Sep 10 here:
http://www.racing.com/form/2015-09-10/mornington/race/1/results

Had bad luck at Sale last week:
https://www.racing.com/videos/2015-09-24/sale-race-2--24915

could it find anymore trouble? Did fly late, interesting what it's last 200 would have been. Definite black booker and a mile looks perfect.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Accepted this week race three bottom weight. Ben Melham on board

[mighty_tiger_79]

Let's hope it doesn't become Craiglea Jabiru!!!!

[LPH]

Don't think it will.
It was very unlucky last start - when got galloping room, really accelerated & hit the line hard for 3rd.

Wawail is running in the last - up against Politeness.
Currently $5 & $1.95
Would be tempted if I can get 'black' figures the Place but... Depends on the 'inside', could be 'off' by Race 10.

[Computer Crashed]

I'm on LPH

Waller has 4 confirmed runners with jocks booked in.

It's his race to lose

If he draws inside Barrier 10 - I seriously think he's going to be very hard to beat.
The Japanese Horse is very good - the talk is he is very similar to Delta Blues.
JK - I just think the weight advantage is huge & I reckon as a result, Waller has set this horse for the Caulfield Cup this time in - 4th Up.
With 4 Place Dividends $6.50 the Place @ this point is too good not to have an Each Way Ticket - he will be running on from the 500m on the bend.
I think he 'profiles' very similar to 2007 winner Master O'Reilly.

Waller's Derby Horse from last year, Preferment, is his Melbourne Cup Horse IMHO - reckon he'll run in the Cox Plate & should top him off nicely, which will mean he's 5th Up in the Cup.

The Jap horse Fame Game is extremely good,not just good.
Hokko Brave it's travelling partner is no slouch either.
Got on Fame Game a month ago 9s for the Caufield and 11s for the Melb.

[OnSong]

Let's hope it doesn't become Craiglea Jabiru!!!!

Ack! Glad I haven't sighted that thing in a long time

[OnSong]

I'm on LPH

Waller has 4 confirmed runners with jocks booked in.

It's his race to lose

If he draws inside Barrier 10 - I seriously think he's going to be very hard to beat.
The Japanese Horse is very good - the talk is he is very similar to Delta Blues.
JK - I just think the weight advantage is huge & I reckon as a result, Waller has set this horse for the Caulfield Cup this time in - 4th Up.
With 4 Place Dividends $6.50 the Place @ this point is too good not to have an Each Way Ticket - he will be running on from the 500m on the bend.
I think he 'profiles' very similar to 2007 winner Master O'Reilly.

Waller's Derby Horse from last year, Preferment, is his Melbourne Cup Horse IMHO - reckon he'll run in the Cox Plate & should top him off nicely, which will mean he's 5th Up in the Cup.

The Jap horse Fame Game is extremely good,not just good.
Hokko Brave it's travelling partner is no slouch either.
Got on Fame Game a month ago 9s for the Caufield and 11s for the Melb.

Yeah, been watching those two Japanese horses closely. Plenty of ability there.

[OnSong]

So this weekend, I Love It in Race 2 is one I've been following since last spring carnival. Will be at big odds to beat Lankan Rupee but I'll have a little EW nibble.
Little Indian in race three is constantly improving but needs to travel in the pack before pouncing in the straight. Doesn't lead well but hits the line hard and having seen the last three starts, is probably suited to more distance. Still, will have another EW crack in a classier field.
Race 6 has Criterion, Happy Trails and Fawkner in the same race, along with Kermadec. Boxing em up and going Criterion FTW.

[OnSong]

Really liked The Eunuch's last run. Lines up today at Rocky R1.

Also be watching the #10, Magic Fish. Been close a few times over the 1300m at Rocky, fresh off a spell. Usually goes better second up. EW chance IMO

The Eunuch in again race 3 at Rocky today, the extra 100m doesn't really help IMO and top weight. Will start shorter but if you can get anywhere near $7, it's probably a fair price. Seems to run second a lot and is showing $3.70. Means there could be a value winner in this field. Breath Of Tera should be fave IMO, shown consistency over the distance, extra kilo on board but would be hard to see her missing top 3.
The one I wanted to watch last week, Magic Fish, is in the same race, second up, I think a good EW show at $20 or so.

1, 5, 11 without knowing too much about the rest. What a wrap for a provincial maiden! I'll deadset give up for a few days if none of these go top 3. Haha

[OnSong]

Well, they all jumped at unders. And the extra 100m probably hurt the Fish and The Eunuch found the going too tough, as expected.
Thank god Tera made top 3 but did not see either 4 or 6 doing as well as they did. Back to the drawing board.

[JK]

Ormans first two rides today were crunched significantly ($16 into $3.10 and $22 into $6) .. Thank God for Fixed price betting

[OnSong]

Ormans first two rides today were crunched significantly ($16 into $3.10 and $22 into $6) .. Thank God for Fixed price betting

Yeah, I saw a few firm right up. Magic Fish and Ticatime crunched big time in Race 3 after opening at $20 or so

[mighty_tiger_79]

quick squiz at Caulfield

Race 3 - 4 Secret agenda with Newitt on board. Drawn wide is the concern, but it should be pushing forward and get itself into the race. $4.00 and $1.75

Race 6 - Fawkner - I really can't go past this - $4.40 and $1.70, loves it here at Caulfield. It is a cracking race, Kermadec was a horse I was following last campaign and it seems to have stepped it up again this prep. Not a bad race.

Race 7 - 7 - Disposition - Drawn in the middle, will slide forward here. this is the WA sensation and $4.80 - $1.95 with Dunny on board, I can see this winning. but it is a cracking race with a good case to be made for many of the runners in the field.

Race 8 - 4 - Jameka - $9.00 - $2.70
10 - Super Cash - $16 - $4.40
I have the 10 just above the 4 here in my final picks. can see the 10 just sitting in the first 5, just behind the leaders and hopefully with a barnstorming run getting the cash from the Gunpowder who will be the one to beat

race 9
5 - $9 - $3 - gotta respect the Kiwi's
7 - $26 - $7
15 - $11 - $3.40 - this should be around the 20/1. the $11 is unders. its drawn the carpark as it did last start where it managed to come with a good run to come in 2nd, they will go like cut snakes up front and just pinning my hopes on another big finish here.

race 10 - 9 - catch the cat - $23 and $5.00 - wasn't too far away here last start, a little bit more luck and it would've figured closer and it would be half these odds!!!

[JK]

Firmer ground should help Kermadec even more but Fawkner is class too and should be thereabouts

[Computer Crashed]

Firmer ground should help Kermadec even more but Fawkner is class too and should be thereabouts

I've backed Fawkner ever start for 3 years 20/20.
I've backed it in the Cox but I reckon the youngsters are starting to get to the champ.
Hope I'm wrong.
Kermadec may just get the job done on Saturday.

[LPH]

As I will be at AUFC tonight (& in the Pub from about 4pm), I figured I would again be a little early this week. I hope you guys aren’t bored by my analysis – please tell me if you are & I will refrain. I trust you got a piece of the $7.50 the Place on offer last week in the Epsom – the Quinella paid very nicely too, although I missed the Trifecta. Anyway, I hate post-mortems & tomorrow is another great day’s racing.

The Guineas is always an open race but Class usually wins out – might be a Derby trial there too perhaps, so look for something lightly raced that’s running on. Liked Tarzino’s run 3 weeks ago, he might be one to watch with the Derby in mind – he’s currently Fav for the Derby. Happy to watch this race tomorrow.

The Girl’s Race looks like there’s some value in Jameka – she drops 2kgs on last 2 runs & meets Miss Gunpowder 3.5gs better at ‘relative weights’. If you can get eachway value of $9 & $3 – she’s the one for me in the race – I think she is vulnerable to win the race (as her Win % strike rate is poor – 1 from 6 starts) & I think this isn’t the ‘target race’ for her. Regardless of what happens, I reckon if she runs well (& hits the line hard) she’ll have 2 more runs – the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day & then The Oaks. Maher is a good staying distance trainer & I would assume The Oaks is her target race – currently $11 for that race. I’m prepared to risk waiting, in case she doesn’t win the 1000 tomorrow, as the price will get out a bit (hopefully $15) – obviously if she wins, then it will come in but Hey, that’s the Punt isn’t it?

My Value Runner tomorrow is in the Toorak – generally get value in this race every year. I am prepared to wait to see how the track plays & if the inside is ‘off’ then, no bet. But, if its fair or on pace biased for the inside 3m of the track, I reckon there’s a good priced one in Hopfgarten.
He’s had the one run in Melbourne (at Caulfield) to acclimatise. You know that I do like Rob Heathcote as a trainer, if he were in Melbourne or Sydney he would be higher rated than he is IMHO. I think he is in the top 5 ‘sprinter/miler’ trainers in the country – Waterhouse, Moody, Weir & Team Hawkes are the others. I leave out O’Shea & Snowden because they have/had the huge advantage of Darby/Goldolphin backing.

Anyway, Hopfgarten; Ran well in the Rupert Clarke behind the leading group, only wound up late (his last 400m was very good).
The Mile is his ‘pet’ distance range, having won 3 of 9 & been 2nd twice as well. His 2nd Up form is good. But the thing for me that ‘sells’ him is the weight; He stays @ 54kgs. He ran 5th in the Doomben Cup at WFA, had a bad gate & sat wide. Ran behind Pornichet, Weary, I’m Imposing. If Pornichet was in this race it would be $5 to $6.
I think Colless will go forward from the barrier, I reckon he’ll be 5th or 6th on the fence. I think both Strawberry Boy & Jacquinot Bay will come across from the outside gates & set the pace. If Hopfgarten can ‘get out’ coming around the turn & be 3 or 4 wide as they fan he could well be the one finishing the last 250m off the best. Currently $17 & $4.80. Might take a little of the Place price today because I wouldn’t want any less than about $4.60, take a little in the ‘Powerprice’ in the Morning, Hopefully $20 & $5, & then if the inside is OK – I’ll take some more later in the Day.

Enjoy the Day Lads !!! This time of year is so much fun

[JK]

Love these write-ups LPH, keep em coming mate!!