REB's Rubbish: Round Seven
Posted: Fri May 11, 2007 1:45 pmI have to admit that unlike Dutchy I don't spend too much time looking at statistics to figure out who is going to win this week's matches. I've always been a 'hunch' tipster, although you can't discount statistics entirely. My 'touchy feely' approach has got me 30 winners so far this season, with last week's haul of six being my best so far. I would be interested to know how many Dutchy has with his scientific approach.
This round looks like a real tough one with several games that could go either way.
Kangaroos should be able to make it four on the trot against Essendon. The Kangas have continued with the smaller foward line and have the momentum at this point of the season. There wouldn't be too many sides that I would select Essendon to beat without Matty Lloyd, especially when Scott Lucas' form has dropped off. The Kangas take it for granted that they have to work hard and as a result are a tough side to beat. Roos to win by 25 points.
Carlton can pull a surprise victory out of the bag in its massive clash with Collingwood this week. The Pies have been sensational so far this year and Carlton have merely improved from a low level of performance but with Clement out and Prestigiacomo suffering a foot injury last week, the defensive options appear to be thinly spread for this match. At full strength the Pies would more than have Carlton's measure but with Kouta and Fisher making their return to the Blues lineup, they appear to have the necessary personnel to win this match. Carlton by 15 points.
Port Adelaide were flat last week but still managed to outlast a desperate Melbourne in a tight encounter. Expect no such thing this week from the timid Tigers. Any team with heart would want to hit back hard after getting flogged like they were last week but when you look at Richmond's appalling record at this venue for this opponent, and coupled with the fact that the underwhelming Pattison will line up in the ruck against the formidable Brogan/Lade combination then it is hard to see Richmond even being competitive. The Power are the most improved side in the league and will pound the Tigers by 77 points.
Brisbane are at full strength and appear to have got their groove back. The Lions lineup of this weekend bears (pardon the pun) little resemblence to the side that got belted at home more often than not last season. The Lions are back and so is the Gabbatoir factor. In the past I have enjoyed writing off the Crows and have of course done so prematurely but I have taken my previous lack of respect for Adelaide into account here when considering this match. The Crow forward line has struggled to kick a score in the last few weeks and even though they will kick their highest score for a month, I still can't see them winning. Brisbane by 13 points.
Sydney in Melbourne appear to be a dicey proposition this season but I'm sticking my neck out for them one last time here as the new St Kilda man has changed his side into Sydney II, and since when is the sequel ever as good as the original? Matty Clarke will miss here for the Saints and I can see Peter Everitt getting right on top giving the Swines the precious advantage in the centre of the ground. This will put the undermanned Saints defence under the pump. Hall and Gehrig will get amongst the goals here but something is amiss with St Nick, and the Swannies will salute by 7 points in a real grinder.
Geelong have finally gotten rid of the handbagger tag but the our new label 'Flat track bullies' is only slightly more flattering. What am I thinking? The bigger the expectation down at Catland the bigger the fall, and after all - Geelong has only won twice in their last seven matches at Cat Park. Still, I think that the Catters can gain some measure of revenge here for that heartbreaking loss of last season, not because of the Richmond thrashing but in spite of it. The West Coast midfield is of course the best in the competition but this week the Eagles go in minus Ruckman Dean Cox, Andrew Embley and of course perinnial Cat killer Ben Cousins won't be there either. The Cats will be minus Paul Chapman here but a few of these Eagles have yet to grace Cat Park. The Eagles appear slightly vulnerable here and I reckon the Cats can win by 21 points. (NB: A draw might be a good bet here - three of the last five have been decided by 3 points or less with one draw at this venue).
Melbourne will go one step further this weekend and open their account for 2007. As the weeks go by, players are steadily returning to this Melbourne side and even though they will struggle to make the eight, they are no bunnies. Green is the man back in this week and Neitz will be better off for the run last week. These Bulldogs look a bit leg weary to me and their game is based around their run. I reckon Neiter will get amongst the goals and that Brad Johnson will have plenty of company. Melbourne to sing the club song after winning by 18 points.
Fremantle are this years' Geelong and have been this season's most disappointing team. Undisciplined and inconsistent, they face a Hawk team on the rise on the back of a budding (ho ho) superstars' nine goal performance. All week the talk has been 'who's going to stop Buddy' but I'd like to ask 'who's going to stop Pavlich'. Freo have been accused of being a slow side but I don't think the Hawk midfield is laced with pace and if guys like Haselby and Bell can extract the digit and get the pill, then the Dockers can pull back a victory here. Fremantle to win at home by 28 points.
regards,
REB
This round looks like a real tough one with several games that could go either way.
Kangaroos should be able to make it four on the trot against Essendon. The Kangas have continued with the smaller foward line and have the momentum at this point of the season. There wouldn't be too many sides that I would select Essendon to beat without Matty Lloyd, especially when Scott Lucas' form has dropped off. The Kangas take it for granted that they have to work hard and as a result are a tough side to beat. Roos to win by 25 points.
Carlton can pull a surprise victory out of the bag in its massive clash with Collingwood this week. The Pies have been sensational so far this year and Carlton have merely improved from a low level of performance but with Clement out and Prestigiacomo suffering a foot injury last week, the defensive options appear to be thinly spread for this match. At full strength the Pies would more than have Carlton's measure but with Kouta and Fisher making their return to the Blues lineup, they appear to have the necessary personnel to win this match. Carlton by 15 points.
Port Adelaide were flat last week but still managed to outlast a desperate Melbourne in a tight encounter. Expect no such thing this week from the timid Tigers. Any team with heart would want to hit back hard after getting flogged like they were last week but when you look at Richmond's appalling record at this venue for this opponent, and coupled with the fact that the underwhelming Pattison will line up in the ruck against the formidable Brogan/Lade combination then it is hard to see Richmond even being competitive. The Power are the most improved side in the league and will pound the Tigers by 77 points.
Brisbane are at full strength and appear to have got their groove back. The Lions lineup of this weekend bears (pardon the pun) little resemblence to the side that got belted at home more often than not last season. The Lions are back and so is the Gabbatoir factor. In the past I have enjoyed writing off the Crows and have of course done so prematurely but I have taken my previous lack of respect for Adelaide into account here when considering this match. The Crow forward line has struggled to kick a score in the last few weeks and even though they will kick their highest score for a month, I still can't see them winning. Brisbane by 13 points.
Sydney in Melbourne appear to be a dicey proposition this season but I'm sticking my neck out for them one last time here as the new St Kilda man has changed his side into Sydney II, and since when is the sequel ever as good as the original? Matty Clarke will miss here for the Saints and I can see Peter Everitt getting right on top giving the Swines the precious advantage in the centre of the ground. This will put the undermanned Saints defence under the pump. Hall and Gehrig will get amongst the goals here but something is amiss with St Nick, and the Swannies will salute by 7 points in a real grinder.
Geelong have finally gotten rid of the handbagger tag but the our new label 'Flat track bullies' is only slightly more flattering. What am I thinking? The bigger the expectation down at Catland the bigger the fall, and after all - Geelong has only won twice in their last seven matches at Cat Park. Still, I think that the Catters can gain some measure of revenge here for that heartbreaking loss of last season, not because of the Richmond thrashing but in spite of it. The West Coast midfield is of course the best in the competition but this week the Eagles go in minus Ruckman Dean Cox, Andrew Embley and of course perinnial Cat killer Ben Cousins won't be there either. The Cats will be minus Paul Chapman here but a few of these Eagles have yet to grace Cat Park. The Eagles appear slightly vulnerable here and I reckon the Cats can win by 21 points. (NB: A draw might be a good bet here - three of the last five have been decided by 3 points or less with one draw at this venue).
Melbourne will go one step further this weekend and open their account for 2007. As the weeks go by, players are steadily returning to this Melbourne side and even though they will struggle to make the eight, they are no bunnies. Green is the man back in this week and Neitz will be better off for the run last week. These Bulldogs look a bit leg weary to me and their game is based around their run. I reckon Neiter will get amongst the goals and that Brad Johnson will have plenty of company. Melbourne to sing the club song after winning by 18 points.
Fremantle are this years' Geelong and have been this season's most disappointing team. Undisciplined and inconsistent, they face a Hawk team on the rise on the back of a budding (ho ho) superstars' nine goal performance. All week the talk has been 'who's going to stop Buddy' but I'd like to ask 'who's going to stop Pavlich'. Freo have been accused of being a slow side but I don't think the Hawk midfield is laced with pace and if guys like Haselby and Bell can extract the digit and get the pill, then the Dockers can pull back a victory here. Fremantle to win at home by 28 points.
regards,
REB
