REB's Rubbish: Round Seven

[Rik E Boy]

I have to admit that unlike Dutchy I don't spend too much time looking at statistics to figure out who is going to win this week's matches. I've always been a 'hunch' tipster, although you can't discount statistics entirely. My 'touchy feely' approach has got me 30 winners so far this season, with last week's haul of six being my best so far. I would be interested to know how many Dutchy has with his scientific approach.

This round looks like a real tough one with several games that could go either way.

Kangaroos should be able to make it four on the trot against Essendon. The Kangas have continued with the smaller foward line and have the momentum at this point of the season. There wouldn't be too many sides that I would select Essendon to beat without Matty Lloyd, especially when Scott Lucas' form has dropped off. The Kangas take it for granted that they have to work hard and as a result are a tough side to beat. Roos to win by 25 points.

Carlton can pull a surprise victory out of the bag in its massive clash with Collingwood this week. The Pies have been sensational so far this year and Carlton have merely improved from a low level of performance but with Clement out and Prestigiacomo suffering a foot injury last week, the defensive options appear to be thinly spread for this match. At full strength the Pies would more than have Carlton's measure but with Kouta and Fisher making their return to the Blues lineup, they appear to have the necessary personnel to win this match. Carlton by 15 points.

Port Adelaide were flat last week but still managed to outlast a desperate Melbourne in a tight encounter. Expect no such thing this week from the timid Tigers. Any team with heart would want to hit back hard after getting flogged like they were last week but when you look at Richmond's appalling record at this venue for this opponent, and coupled with the fact that the underwhelming Pattison will line up in the ruck against the formidable Brogan/Lade combination then it is hard to see Richmond even being competitive. The Power are the most improved side in the league and will pound the Tigers by 77 points.

Brisbane are at full strength and appear to have got their groove back. The Lions lineup of this weekend bears (pardon the pun) little resemblence to the side that got belted at home more often than not last season. The Lions are back and so is the Gabbatoir factor. In the past I have enjoyed writing off the Crows and have of course done so prematurely but I have taken my previous lack of respect for Adelaide into account here when considering this match. The Crow forward line has struggled to kick a score in the last few weeks and even though they will kick their highest score for a month, I still can't see them winning. Brisbane by 13 points.

Sydney in Melbourne appear to be a dicey proposition this season but I'm sticking my neck out for them one last time here as the new St Kilda man has changed his side into Sydney II, and since when is the sequel ever as good as the original? Matty Clarke will miss here for the Saints and I can see Peter Everitt getting right on top giving the Swines the precious advantage in the centre of the ground. This will put the undermanned Saints defence under the pump. Hall and Gehrig will get amongst the goals here but something is amiss with St Nick, and the Swannies will salute by 7 points in a real grinder.

Geelong have finally gotten rid of the handbagger tag but the our new label 'Flat track bullies' is only slightly more flattering. What am I thinking? The bigger the expectation down at Catland the bigger the fall, and after all - Geelong has only won twice in their last seven matches at Cat Park. Still, I think that the Catters can gain some measure of revenge here for that heartbreaking loss of last season, not because of the Richmond thrashing but in spite of it. The West Coast midfield is of course the best in the competition but this week the Eagles go in minus Ruckman Dean Cox, Andrew Embley and of course perinnial Cat killer Ben Cousins won't be there either. The Cats will be minus Paul Chapman here but a few of these Eagles have yet to grace Cat Park. The Eagles appear slightly vulnerable here and I reckon the Cats can win by 21 points. (NB: A draw might be a good bet here - three of the last five have been decided by 3 points or less with one draw at this venue).

Melbourne will go one step further this weekend and open their account for 2007. As the weeks go by, players are steadily returning to this Melbourne side and even though they will struggle to make the eight, they are no bunnies. Green is the man back in this week and Neitz will be better off for the run last week. These Bulldogs look a bit leg weary to me and their game is based around their run. I reckon Neiter will get amongst the goals and that Brad Johnson will have plenty of company. Melbourne to sing the club song after winning by 18 points.

Fremantle are this years' Geelong and have been this season's most disappointing team. Undisciplined and inconsistent, they face a Hawk team on the rise on the back of a budding (ho ho) superstars' nine goal performance. All week the talk has been 'who's going to stop Buddy' but I'd like to ask 'who's going to stop Pavlich'. Freo have been accused of being a slow side but I don't think the Hawk midfield is laced with pace and if guys like Haselby and Bell can extract the digit and get the pill, then the Dockers can pull back a victory here. Fremantle to win at home by 28 points.


regards,

REB

[RustyCage]

I hope you're right about Port REB! It wouldn't surprise me to see another game like the one last week against Melbourme. Richmond lost by over 100 points three times last year, any idea how they followed up the week after?

[Dutchy]

REB...my normal tips are 28 so far...I dont just use stats, I rely on gut feel for plenty but the 50/50 games I look real closely at the stats....e.g. this week the stats tell me Hawks should win but I will tip Freo for strategy purposes as there are 3/4 50/50 games that I would rather concentrate getting right...for the record (maybe we can keep track here)

Stats picks

Roos
Collingwood
Port
Brisbane
Sydney
West Coast
Bullies
Hawks

My "normal" picks are all of the above except replace Hawks with Freo

[Dutchy]

Interested in your Geelong tip though (heart?) youve beaten 14th, 15th & 16th on the ladder and have only won 1 game out of the last 6 at SS?

[mighty_tiger_79]

you should have stuck with the hawks, i think they can and will win

[Dutchy]

you should have stuck with the hawks, i think they can and will win

If Im in front come Sunday I will be punting them with a 15 point start...

[Rik E Boy]

Interested in your Geelong tip though (heart?) youve beaten 14th, 15th & 16th on the ladder and have only won 1 game out of the last 6 at SS?

I thought I had explained my Geelong tip fairly well. The Eagles midfield minus Cousins and Embley will do be trying to get the ball out of the centre to what I believe will be losing rucks or Ottens and Blake vs. Mark Seaby. The player who has caused us the most pain over this decade is not Judd or Kerr but Cousins. It was Cousins who kept West Coast in the game last year when the Cats were on top, and they got back into that game because our CHB went down and Thompson moved our winning CHF to defence to cover the hole. This year if Moons did go down back we have a couple of tall marking forwards available..Nathan Ablett has already kicked four against West Coast at the Cattery.

Or, ifyou wish to disregard the theory...I can just say that I've got a hunch.

regards,

Quasimodo

[mal]

I can remember Sydney beating Richmond by 118 points last year
and then
Richmond beaingt Adelaide in the worst exhibition of flooding Ive seen the week after
hmn.....

[Thiele]

I know I'am late but here goes
ROOS
PORT
COLLINGWOOD
SYDNEY
BRISBANE
WEST COAST
MELBOURNE
FREO

[Hondo]

Agree with the Lions tip REB, Crows will go to 3-4 I think. Too many guys out and Brisbane near full-strength at home

Unbelievably Port should go to 6-1

[Rik E Boy]

Poor selection of Carlton today. Their midfield has no depth with Stevens out for the year and they can't run out a full game.

regards,

REB

[mighty_tiger_79]

Poor selection of Carlton today. Their midfield has no depth with Stevens out for the year and they can't run out a full game.

regards,

REB

MAL would say they struggled today because they have been running on concrete for the last 2 weeks at the PHONE BOX OF DOOM

[Rik E Boy]

LOL. He doesn't have to say it because other clowns can come on here and say it for him.

regards,

REB

[mighty_tiger_79]

LOL. He doesn't have to say it because other clowns can come on here and say it for him.

regards,

REB

THANKYOU, thats one of the nicest things anybody has said!!!!!

[sydney-dog]

On the Power v Tigers game

Is it just me or is Richo carrying too much weight, I think he is unfit and it's impacted his athleticism which traditionally was his strength

[NFC]

Carlton looked dead on their feet in the last quarter, good tip by the good self.

[Rik E Boy]

2 out of 5

regards,

REB

[Dutchy]

2 out of 5

regards,

REB

3 out of 5....Stats rule!!!

[mighty_tiger_79]

2 out of 5

regards,

REB

well you are right with the heading of the thread REBS RUBBISH!!!!

[RoosterMarty]

Don't write off the Crows!!!