SA Footy

Hasn't been much chatter on here about my boys so thought I'd get something up and running for the handful of Lions supporters on SAFooty.

Actually looking forward to this season with real optimism.
After a couple of false starts to our new era which I was looking at with rose-coloured glasses on, I genuinely believe the club is on the right track both on and off the field for the first time since the end of 2009.

The acquisition of Beams and Christensen will certainly help this.
Great to see guys actually wanting to come up north.
Regain Daniel Rich, Brent Staker and Matt Leuenberger and also Jack Redden who missed a large chunk of the back end of 2014.
No Hanley until June hurts, but Rich is a ready-made replacement across half back.

Much discussion this year will revolve around the future of James Aish.
The Crows are obviously a big player here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Port join the queue sooner rather than later.
This kid can seriously play and will be a much better player for us than Lewy Taylor down the track.
So I really hope we do everything we can to keep him. Even if we pay overs.

So will we play finals this year?
Maybe, but probably not.
Honestly, I'd be happy with a finish between 9th and 12th, with around 11 wins.
Beating some of the top teams would be great, particularly Sydney and Freo, who we've really struggled against in recent times.
Playing finals this year would be a bonus, but I think next season will be our year, particularly with more games into our youngsters (we have the 4th youngest list).

As for our best 22, it will be hard to squeeze so many mids in there.
As usual, the forward line will be the unknown, with pocket rocket Josh Green our top goal scorer for last season.
I'm expecting big things from Michael Close if not this year, then next. Keep an eye on him.
Can't find room for the likes of Mitch Robinson and Matt Maguire, although I can see Robbo being useful throughout the season.
Not sure what Leppa will do with two quality ruckmen. Probably start one on the bench, or use him as a floating player a kick behind the play.
The Lions running game isn't overly suited to big men though.

Here's what I believe is our best 22 (no injuries)
F: Green, Close, Taylor
HF: Zorko, Staker, Aish
C: Christensen, Rockliff, Hanley
HB: Rich, Clarke, C. Beams
B: Gardiner, Merrett, Adcock
R: Martin, D. Beams, Redden
I: Leuenberger, Mayes, Bewick, Lester

Emg: Harwood, Robinson, Paparone

Thoughts?

Hanley out for half the year, Patfull a massive loss, Christensen been knocked out many times. Those are a few question marks over the Lions for me but the potential for improvement is there for sure.

regards,

REB

I think Hanley can be covered by Rich.
Different players, but Rich's left boot can cover for his lack of pace.

Patfull will certainly be a huge loss. Been a rock in defence for us over the past 10 years.
I'm hoping Darcy Gardiner can replace him. Showed a lot of potential last season.

Keep Christensen fit and we've got a gun, but you're right about his injuries.

I think it will be the likes of Taylor, Aish, Mayes, Robertson where the big improvement comes from.
Even Claye Beams who has hardly been able to string together 2 games until last year.

The first 6 rounds will be telling for us.
Winnable games against Collingwood (H), North (A), Richmond (H), West Coast (H), Gold Coast (A) and Carlton (A) will set up the rest of the season.
Very favourable draw too.
Play Bulldogs, North, Gold Coast, Carlton and Adelaide twice.

Forward line looks a bit slim but the midfield additions are as good as any. Add in the kids are another year older I believe improvement is very possible.

I would actually start with Leuy in the ruck and push Martin forward.

I think Robinson and McStay both start.

stan wrote:Forward line looks a bit slim but the midfield additions are as good as any. Add in the kids are another year older I believe improvement is very possible.

I would actually start with Leuy in the ruck and push Martin forward.

Slim for tall options but the smalls are pretty handy.

They'll definitely persist with Close but you're right, maybe one of the rucks can play up there

Brodlach wrote:I think Robinson and McStay both start.

Yeah I like McStay. Not sure if he's in our best 22 though. Jury's out on robbo. Hopefully he delivers

I think we're too deficient in the key positions, particularly in defence, and won't be able to curtail the big opposition forwards. Also I don't think Leppitsch can take us to the next level. To be brutally honest we'll be in contention for the wooden spoon.

See I disagree. Merrett going back is a huge boost and Justin Clarke is set to become an elite key defender.
Darcy Gardiner plays the third tall well down back.

Up forward we're certainly deficient.
I like the way Leppa has the boys playing though. It's exciting, with an element of risk, but it's great to watch.

Best case scenario 14-8:
v Collingwood W
@ North Melb L
v Richmond W
v West Coast W
@ Gold Coast W
@ Carlton W
v Port Adelaide L
@ Essendon L
v St Kilda W
@ GWS W
@ Western Bulldogs W
v Adelaide W
@ Fremantle L
v Sydney L
@ Melbourne W
v North Melbourne W
@ Geelong L
v Gold Coast W
v Carlton W
@ Adelaide L
@ Hawthorn L
v Western Bulldogs W

But that's the absolute best case scenario.
It's a kind draw, but I'd be happy with 11 wins.
Could quite easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1 after 5 rounds.

Baron Greenback wrote:Best case scenario 14-8:
v Collingwood W
@ North Melb L
v Richmond W
v West Coast W
@ Gold Coast W
@ Carlton W
v Port Adelaide L
@ Essendon L
v St Kilda W
@ GWS W
@ Western Bulldogs W
v Adelaide W
@ Fremantle L
v Sydney L
@ Melbourne W
v North Melbourne W
@ Geelong L
v Gold Coast W
v Carlton W
@ Adelaide L
@ Hawthorn L
v Western Bulldogs W

But that's the absolute best case scenario.
It's a kind draw, but I'd be happy with 11 wins.
Could quite easily be 1-4 instead of 4-1 after 5 rounds.

I love your enthusiasm mate and I'll be very happy to be proved wrong with my pessimistic predictions.

Whilst I understand this is your 'best case scenario' 9 home wins is extremely unlikely.

The problem is many sides remember our golden era of 1999-2004 when, with a team of great skill and aggression, we would more often that not crush visiting teams. Consequently they now grow an extra leg for a visit to the Gabba and see a win there as a big achievement. In reality, because of the feeble opposition we put up these days, they are just feasting on low-hanging fruit. The sooner we disregard thoughts of a home-ground advantage and match the intensity and desire of visiting teams, the better off we'll be.

We're a much better side at home though and most of our limited wins in recent years have come at home.
We've also had a lot of close losses there against sides like Carlton and Essendon, which hopefully we can turn into wins.

As you say, the above is the ultimate scenario - basically the Ws are games that are winnable, not that we should win.
I'd be very happy with 11 wins and to really push some of the top 8 teams.
Also to eliminate any floggings which have really hurt our % in recent years.

Bottom 6 for mine.

Possibly. Could finish anywhere from 8th to 13th I reckon.

Were very scrappy on Saturday. Dominated the first 3 quarters but didn't put the Saints away.
Was impressed with Taylor and Aish. Neither had a huge amount of the footy, but were always busy, particularly Taylor.
Both look to have put on a few more kgs.
Adcock was impressive too, playing a bit further up the ground.

Forward line still a worry. None of the big fellas had a great day.

Looking forward to seeing how they go against Sydney this Friday.

Rightfully optimistic Baron, I think Brisbane and the most likely to improve from the bottom 6 sides from last year ( other then the natural progression of GWS ) but I think you're still a way off 8th.

Looking at that draw above, I think 7 wins would be a possibility. The forward half looks like it will struggle to kick big scores against the more attacking sides. The midfield will give them plenty of opportunities, I just don't see the scoreboard ticking over enough.

Booney wrote:Rightfully optimistic Baron, I think Brisbane and the most likely to improve from the bottom 6 sides from last year ( other then the natural progression of GWS ) but I think you're still a way off 8th.

Looking at that draw above, I think 7 wins would be a possibility. The forward half looks like it will struggle to kick big scores against the more attacking sides. The midfield will give them plenty of opportunities, I just don't see the scoreboard ticking over enough.

The games against teams like Carlton, Essendon etc will be the key.
Last year we beat St Kilda, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Collingwood.
I think we can beat all of those again, with maybe the exception of North.
Throw in winnable losses to Essendon, Geelong, West Coast and Richmond, hopefully the natural progression will see wins against a couple of these teams.

The forward line will certainly be the key.
We only scored over 100 twice last year and finding someone to help the smaller guys is a must.
But they were also starved of opportunities for much of the year too.
Our defence in the 2nd half of the season was a lot better, minus the last few rounds, and as a consequence we started seeing the ball inside 50 more.
The addition of Beams etc, will also help with that.

I'd really like to see the Lions go hard after Jeremy Cameron.
Trade a top draft pick and someone like Green or Bewick.

Beams @ $26 for the Brownlow. I had a $10'er at that price on him.

I think he'll be a stand out in your midfield. While Rockliff racks up 40, Beams will be the more damaging on the scoreboard and, in my view, "in and under" where Rockliff doesn't spend much time.

I like your optimism, but 12-14th for mine with 7-9 wins tops.

Yeah Beams can definitely play. Kicks goals too which the umps love.
I expect him to actually play more of an outside role.

Rocky does a lot of in and under work. Was number 6 in the comp last year for ave. contested possessions.
He's also number 1 for tackles in the comp.
Got Redden back too so hopefully they can feed it to the likes of Beams, Rich, Zorko, Aish and Hanley.

12th to 14th probably isn't an improvement on last year so hopefully they do better than that.

Impressed with the sydney game. A lot of pressure applied.
Still wayward in front of goal though.

Liked the look of Liam Dawson in particular. Hope he gets a senior gig this season.

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Close ACL. Bugger.