The Run Home

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The Run Home

Postby Brodlach » Mon Jul 09, 2012 4:34 pm

Article on afl.com.au regarding the teams run to the finals. Sydneys run is extremely difficult.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/ ... fault.aspx

1. Sydney Swans
44 points (11 wins, three losses), 146.13 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium

Top spot might not mean much to coach John Longmire, but the Swans keep defying the doubters. West Coast in the west is just about the toughest challenge in football next week and they then come up against the steadfast Saints. The Swans face a tough road home, punctuated by Hawthorn at home and Geelong away as they try to sew up their place in the top four. An in-form Adam Goodes could prove a wildcard, as he works his way back from a lengthy injury layoff.

Predict how the 2012 season will play out using the official AFL ladder predictor

2. West Coast
44 points (11 wins, three losses) 139.93 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Sydney Swans at Patersons Stadium
Rd 17: Adelaide Crows at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG

A top-four finish appears certain thanks to the Eagles' imperious form at home. The club's only remaining trips across the Nullarbor are to play both South Australian clubs, before a last-round appointment with Hawthorn that should be a mouth-watering precursor to the finals. The possible return of Josh Kennedy before the finals will provide a welcome boost, but the Eagles have scratched Mark Nicoski for the rest of this season.

3. Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, three losses) 123.29 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 17: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium

The Crows can pretty much lock in a win over the Giants before they face demanding examinations against the Eagles at home, the Cats in Geelong and the Bombers at home. Win some or all of those games and they should stamp themselves in the top four, as their last month should be a relative breeze. Midfield depth remains a real strength, but Taylor Walker's suspension is an unneeded distraction.

4. Collingwood
44 points (11 wins, three losses) 120.32 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 17: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG

Hit a roadblock on Friday night against the Blues and now face some stern tests in the coming weeks. Coach Nathan Buckley expects to be without Sharrod Wellingham for Saturday night's date with the Cats after his hit on Kade Simpson, but might soon regain Scott Pendlebury, Chris Tarrant and Nathan Brown. An away trip to face the Giants in round 18 offers respite before a testing run home that will challenge, rather than concern.

5. Hawthorn
40 points (10 wins, four losses) 152.65 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG

In destroying the Giants, the Hawks boosted their standing by 17 percentage points, which could be vital in the race for the top four. After a should-win game against the Dogs next week, the fixture becomes more difficult. Games against the Pies, Bombers and Cats shape as critical for their top-four hopes. Captain Luke Hodge's availability will be important to the Hawks' finals hopes, while a lot still rests on the shoulders of their No.23.

6. Essendon
40 points (10 wins, four losses) 127.63 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG

Saturday night's thumping by St Kilda burst the Dons' bubble in more ways than one. Dumped from the top four, the Bombers will sweat on Michael Hurley's injured hamstring, while the Saints proved that it is possible to put the clamps on Brownlow contender Jobe Watson. A testing run home includes games against four of the current top seven. Two remaining trips interstate are to come, with three games on home turf at Etihad Stadium and three closing blockbusters at the MCG.

7. Geelong
36 points (nine wins, five losses), 112.92 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium

Leigh Matthews is among the pundits to have declared Geelong's dynasty over. But the Cats continue to hang tough and remain firmly in flag calculations. An impending lethal five-game stretch against Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn and West Coast will give an accurate description of where they sit. Survive that and finish in the eight, and the Cats will be a scary proposition for opposition teams in the finals.

8. St Kilda
30 points (seven wins, seven losses), 121.26 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium

Took the Bombers to task on Saturday night in a performance that made amends for losing against the Roos the week before. The next four games will be pivotal. Win any less than three of those four, and the Saints face an uphill battle to feature in the finals. Games against Melbourne and GWS are likely wins in August. Geelong and Carlton will be more daunting.

----------------------------------------

9. Carlton
24 points (six wins, seven losses) 108.74 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium

After looking all doom and gloom, the Blues did the unthinkable and beat Collingwood on Friday night to put their season back on track. This week's game against North Melbourne is huge in terms of finals calculations and, after that, Carlton cannot afford few slip ups for the rest of the season. Marc Murphy's return could be imminent, but injuries to key players Jarrad Waite, Jeremy Laidler and Lachie Henderson may yet prove too difficult to overcome.

10. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, seven losses) 107.70 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Gold Coast at Cazaly's Stadium (Cairns)
Rd 17: North Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Paterson Stadium
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at the MCG

Following a tumultuous week off the field, the Tigers posted an uninspiring win against Melbourne at the weekend. They will expect a handsome win against the Suns this week, before regaining Dustin Martin for huge encounters with North Melbourne and then Carlton that could decide the race for eighth spot. Percentage boosts in games against the Lions, the Dogs and the Power will be vital. Needless to say if they drop those games, their finals hopes will be on thin ice.

11. North Melbourne
28 points (seven wins, seven losses), 104.78 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium

Pushed form side West Coast to within two points but could not manage to fall over the line. The next two weeks against the Blues and the Tigers, who are both in similar positions, will determine if Brad Scott's men deserve to make finals. Tests against the Bombers and the Pies in rounds 20 and 21 could bring finality to that sentiment.

12. Fremantle
28 points (seven wins, seven losses) 94.51 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Greater Western Sydney at Patersons Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium

Sunday's scrappy win keeps Freo's finals hopes flickering, and Ross Lyon's men can expect to gain further momentum in the next two rounds. The western derby sandwiched between two trips to Adelaide won't be easy, but otherwise the schedule is favourable, with at least five games Freo could expect to win. The possible return of injured key players Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Stephen Hill and Zac Dawson could aid a late charge for September.

13. Brisbane Lions
24 points (six wins, eight losses), 92.81 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: St Kilda at the Gabba
Rd 17: Gold Coast at the Gabba
Rd 18: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Richmond at the Gabba
Rd 20: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Western Bulldogs at the Gabba

The Lions faced a reality check against the Swans at the weekend, plain and simple. They need to win all or most of their home matches and then pinch a few away games against the Eagles, the Blues or the Power to boost their finals prospects. Could still be in the mix if they can build some momentum and get on a winning streak.

14. Western Bulldogs
20 points (five wins, nine losses) 77.97 per cent

The run home:
Rd 16: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 17: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

Coach Brendan McCartney spoke about the need to blood youngsters after Sunday's loss in Perth, which suggests the Bulldogs have shelved their finals aspirations. Experienced forward Daniel Giansiracusa has been a key loos, and Adam Cooney looks a shadow of his former self. Next week's clash at Etihad Stadium could be ugly, and it is tough to see them winning any of their remaining matches.

15. Port Adelaide
16 points (four wins, 10 losses) 81.78

The run home:
Rd 16: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 17: Melbourne at TIO Stadium
Rd 18: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 20: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG

The Power's chances of playing finals this year are mathematical only. One more defeat is enough to put paid to their hopes. Recent performances such as the win at home against Carlton suggest they can pose problems for the Bombers next week, and they could play an important role in determining the make-up of the eight. A closing month against the Hawks, Eagles, Lions and Tigers offers opportunity to mess with others' finals plans.
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods



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Re: The Run Home

Postby Booney » Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:35 pm

Good write up. Went and did a ladder predictor and ended up with :

Adelaide
Hawthorn
Collingwood
West Coast all on 17 wins, percentage against Adelaide.

Some bloody interesting and critical games coming up with many of the top 8 playing 3 or more games against fellow finals contenders.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Hondo » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:08 pm

Booney I did the predictor too and came up with the same top 4 but in a different order. Mine was:

West Coast
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Adelaide

Then I think it was Sydney, Essendon, Carlton (??) and Geelong.

If that is how the top 4 ends up then history says 2 of those teams will make the GF and unless Adelaide get a home prelim it won't be them so I predict WC v Haw or Coll.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby woodublieve12 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:40 pm

Collingwood
sydney
hawthorn
adelaide
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Squids » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:39 pm

Crows have a terrible run, 3 dud teams before playing a West Coast / Hawthorn in a final

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Re: The Run Home

Postby Jim05 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:54 pm

Still think we are a chance to miss finals, cant see a lot of wins in that lot. Hope im wrong.
Probably need 2-3 more wins to make it
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Re: The Run Home

Postby gadj1976 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:50 pm

afl.com.au have fixed up the page. Carlton and St Kilda both are on 28 points, both 7 and 7 but obviously the Saints have a massive % advantage. Could be Rd 23 that decides either Carlton or St Kilda (if we get past the Roos this week!).
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Re: The Run Home

Postby overloaded » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:10 pm

pretty safe to say you will beat the roos gadj.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Jul 10, 2012 3:42 pm

overloaded wrote:pretty safe to say you will beat the roos gadj.


I bet he feels a whole lot more confident now.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby bulldog2004 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:08 pm

Not a great record at Etihad Stadium.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby gadj1976 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:37 pm

No no and yes to the three respondees above.

No, I don't feel confident. We got pumped in the corresponding game last year.

No, I don't feel more confident now given that we don't have a second ruck at all.

Yes, we have a shocking run at Etihad. We just don't play well there.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby The Sleeping Giant » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:38 pm

Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane look to all have the best runs home. West Coast, well give them top spot now.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby howzat » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:41 pm

The Sleeping Giant wrote:Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane look to all have the best runs home. West Coast, well give them top spot now.



crows vs west coast game should decide top spot imho
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Brodlach » Tue Jul 10, 2012 8:09 pm

The Sleeping Giant wrote:Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane look to all have the best runs home. West Coast, well give them top spot now.

I thought West Coast run home was quite difficult with Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn in their last 4 weeks
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Re: The Run Home

Postby The Sleeping Giant » Tue Jul 10, 2012 8:31 pm

2 of those games at home.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Mr Beefy » Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:07 am

Unless Geelong have a turnaround in form and attitude, we'll be lucky to win another game.
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Booney » Wed Jul 11, 2012 9:31 am

Mr Beefy wrote:Unless Geelong have a turnaround in form and attitude, we'll be lucky to win another game.


After looking at your run home Beefy, thats not as silly as I first thought when I read it.
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The Run Home

Postby the joker » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:07 am

howzat wrote:
The Sleeping Giant wrote:Adelaide, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane look to all have the best runs home. West Coast, well give them top spot now.



crows vs west coast game should decide top spot imho

yeah that's probably right. West coast are going to play in 1 v 2 on the ladder two weeks in a row if they win. And with the draw if crows beat west coast they could be a game clear on top with the swans likely to lose to the eagles at subiaco and collingwood playing Geelong and hawthorn the next two, there a chance of losing one
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Re: The Run Home

Postby Lightning McQueen » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:20 am

gadj1976 wrote:No no and yes to the three respondees above.

No, I don't feel confident. We got pumped in the corresponding game last year.

No, I don't feel more confident now given that we don't have a second ruck at all.

Yes, we have a shocking run at Etihad. We just don't play well there.


Even with overblown's endorsement :shock:
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Re: The Run Home

Postby CUTTERMAN » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:27 am

It's almost impossible to pick the remainding wins and losses except for the obvious ones, so I went for obvious wins, losses and 50/50's. Going by Brodlach's post above I came out with-
WINS-LOSSES-50/50
SYDNEY- 3-0-5
WEST COAST- 4-0-4
ADELAIDE- 5-0-3
COLLINGWOOD- 2-0-6
HAWTHORN- 3-0-5
ESSENDON- 2-0-6
GEELONG- 1-1-6
SAINT KILDA- 3-0-5
CARLTON- 2-0-6
RICHMOND- 3-0-5
NTH MELBOURNE- 3-2-3
FREMANTLE- 3-2-3
BRISBANE- 2-2-4

TOTALS GOING BY WINS ONLY
1-AD-64
2-WC-60
3-SYD-56
4-CW-52
5-HW-52
6-ES-48
7-SK-40
8-G- 40
9-R- 40
10-NM-40
11-FR-40
12-C- 36
13-BR-32

Then adding on the 50/50's (if a club has 6 50/50's then I gave them 3wins. If a club has 5 50/50's, I gave them 2 wins. This is flawed but it's a guess only)
1-WEST COAST 68
2-ADELAIDE 68
3-SYDNEY 64
4-C'WOOD 64
5-HAWTHORN 60
6-ESSENDON 60
7-GEELONG 52
8-ST KILDA 48
9-CARLTON 48
10-RICHMOND 48
11-NTH MELB 44
12-FREMANTLE 44
13-BRISBANE 40

Looking at it I would probably expect to see Hawthorn higher up (I did a ladder predictor also and had Hawthorn in the top 4, but with that you really have to pick winners and losers as picking a draw affects the other team also, this is a bit more of an "all round" overview.
Losing Franklin for the Collingwood match may now come into play if Hawthorn lose as may West Coast losing Shuey and Cox against Sydney this week.
Anyone's guess really.
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