Contenders for 2006

[stan]

i pretty much ripped this out of big footy, but its interesting:

Real Genuine Contenders

Adelaide
Sydney
St Kilda
Geelong
West Coast

Dark Horse Contenders

Melbourne
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Fremantle

Some Chance but unlikely

North Melbourne
Collingwood

No real chance

Richmond
Hawthorn
Essendon
Carlton

[Coorong]

I would agree with the top teams but for me (can't stand em, sorry Borat and Bulldog Blood) but you gotta throw the Wesrern Bulldogs right up there in the top group.

St Kilda I expect to fall away dramatically within the first 10 rounds. Along with the cats. (note no capital for pretenders)

Collingwood, Carlton and the Bombers no way, but I do expect a better year from the Tigers ( not at SANFL level though) and some pretty good improvement from the Lions.

[ORDoubleBlues]

You can count me on the Western Bulldogs bandwagon as well. Think things are falling into place nicely for them as well and I have a bit of a theory on teams who finish a season very strong (the Bulldogs last year), doing very well the next season. Won't surprise me if they finish in the top 4 at the end of the minor round.
Like the Crows, West Coast and Geelong to take out the other 3 spots.
Despite St. Kilda having some great younger players, I think their window has already started to close and if they do only scrape into the finals and bomb quickly and Grant Thomas doesn't get sacked, that will prove once and for all that Butterss has got him on a promise and that he wasn't joking when he said a few years back - "I can see Grant having this job as long as he wants it".
Think so much of Brisbane revolves around Jonathon Brown now and unless he plays at least 18 games, I can't see them making the 8.
Think Richmond will get into the 8 and Hawthorn will improve to give the 8 a bit of a shake.
The Power to finish about 9th.
Admire the Kangaroos for how they keep bucking the odds and doing better than what everyone thinks but if Saturday night was any indication of the type of football the Laidley want's them to play, I can see them finishing about 12th.
Got a feeling that Fremantle will struggle mightily and that Mark Harvey will be coaching them by about round 14.

[Rik E Boy]

Contenders for the flag (Alphabetical only)

Adelaide
Fremantle
Geelong
St Kilda
Sydney
West Coast (just)

Contenders for the eight

Brisbane (likely)
Collingwood
Kangaroos
Melbourne (likely)
Western Bulldogs (just)

Holding up the rest

Carlton (spoon)
Essendon
Hawthorn
Port
Richmond

I'll explain a few of the less obvious ones.

Fremantle as a contender: Freo have a capable midfield and one of the best forward lines in the business and have chronically underachieved under Connolly. They had a lot of injuries last year and still won eleven matches. I'm tipping them to be harder to beat at home this year and to snaffle a couple of extra games which makes them a top four and thus a flag contender. Harvey's presence could be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Dockers.

Collingwood as a contender for the eight: At full strength the Pies are a genuine eight team and like Freo, have had the guts ripped out of them by injuries in the last two seasons. If they stay fit they will be right in the mix for the top eight. Josh Fraser is so important to this team as is Anthony Rocca. If these two stay fit then Tarrant gets freed up to create havoc.

Bulldogs as (just) a contender for the eight: Finding it a bit hard to understand all the hype about the Bulldogs. With Darcy down for the year and a couple of others as well, the Bullies are already right behind the eight ball as to where they would want to be at this stage. I think this side will be a real let down this year as again who are they relying on? The same old Johnson, West, Smith with Cooney and Murphy thrown in. They won't make the eight in my view.

Essendon as an also ran for the second year in a row: Essendon's youngsters are miles away from it still in my view with the exception of Kepler Bradley who looks terrific. Like the Bullies, this team will again be relying on the old guard, Lloyd, Hird, Lucas, Fletcher, Peverill, Johnson, in other words, the same group of blokes who have failed to get this team beyond week two of the finals since 2001. Lloyd will improve on last season but the Essendon youngsters will need another year at least to step into the breach.

Port as an also ran. There doesn't seem to be much depth in the Power list these days. Sure they've still got some gun players but the spread of talent around the Cornes', Tredreas and Burgoynes just isn't there anymore. Will still win the majority of home games (but not all I feel) but the road trips could get ugly for Choco..perhaps even worse than last year.

As usual, it all depends on injuries.

regards,

REB

ps - Hawthorn are seriously 5hite. They go round and round in circles so any improvement you think you may be seeing is just one more accurate handball before the turnover...

[blink]

I agree with those who put Freo as finishing somewhere inside the top half of the 8.

They have a great midfield with Haselby, Bell, Carr Bros, Headland, Schammer etc. Solid"ish" defence and a good attack with Farmer and his shades of brilliance, MacPharlin who looks like a good forward prospect and of course throw Pavlich in anywhere Connelly wants and you have a brilliant side.

I can't see them losing too many, if any games at home this year.


PS. Premiership smokey - Melbourne.

[Rik E Boy]

Melbourne: Top eight side but no smokey. The defence is ordinary and if you take out Travis Johnstone there isn't much in the midfield either. McDonald is second rate and Maloney doesn't have a lot of tricks in the kit to me. Top ruckman get held back or developed for other clubs so Daniher (a very ordinary coach) can play Jeff White solo in the ruck.

Melbourne has a great forward line, expect plenty of high scoring games and a 55 percent winning ratio. 6-8 again as I don't see the improvement in this squad that you do Billy.

regards,

REB

[Rik E Boy]

I would agree with the top teams but for me (can't stand em, sorry Borat and Bulldog Blood) but you gotta throw the Wesrern Bulldogs right up there in the top group.

St Kilda I expect to fall away dramatically within the first 10 rounds. Along with the cats. (note no capital for pretenders)

Collingwood, Carlton and the Bombers no way, but I do expect a better year from the Tigers ( not at SANFL level though) and some pretty good improvement from the Lions.

Please provide the logic behind your prediction of a Saints and Cats downfall. Both teams were smashed by injuries last year and still remained within the top half of the competition. Are you suggesting that both teams will have even more injuries this season (is that even possible) or that other teams have gone past them like the *pffft* Bulldogs and Tigers. Sir, I do believe you are mistaken.

regards,

REB

[Dutchy]

I support them therefore you could say Im biased however it also means ive followed them closely and I believe the kangaroos are a smokey for the top 4 this year. Reasons -

Recruited for now
2-3 years ago we drafted well and these players will come thru this year
Spine - Brown, Hay, Grant, Thomson, Rocca
Beat most fo the teams in top 8 last year, just lost against the bottom 8!
Finished 5th last year, remember?
Got some serious height this year - apart from the spine above add Hale, Macintosh, Jade Rawlings, Petrie, Watt
One of the most consistent midfields in the comp
Archers finale
Play the Power 1st game
On a lighter note the ugliest Coaching panel in the AFL - Laidley, Bewick, Crocker, Mcdonald

Your thoughts?

[Coorong]

Well REB, rather than go into a long and detailed reason, lets just put it down to gut feel.

I will save both posts and raise them again mid season.

[Booney]

The top 6,(as I think the only teams good enough to win the flag finish in the top 6 during the home and away,7th and 8th should not play finals).

(In no particular order)

Adelaide
Geelong
St.Kilda
West Coast
Sydney
Melbourne/Bulldogs

The place getters

Melbourne/Bulldogs
Brisbane
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Kangaroos

The on lookers

Collingwood (te he he)
Carlton ( " " )
Richmond (sad mob)
Hawthorn
Essendon

May I start by saying Carlton,Collingwood and Essendon are no longer the power house clubs,and it will be some time before any of them are a power to be reakoned with.

Dutchy,your side sems to be built around solid contributions from Rocca,Thompson and Rawlings,dont hold your breath.

[Rik E Boy]

Well REB, rather than go into a long and detailed reason, lets just put it down to gut feel.

I will save both posts and raise them again mid season.

Save them you will...I doubt however, you will be reminding us when you are wrong. Leave the intution to the women mon ami. It is always injuries that stuff up the more widely held top six predictions and it would be difficult to imagine how St Kilda and Geelong could possibly have more injuries than they did last year.

regards,

REB

[Rik E Boy]

I support them therefore you could say Im biased however it also means ive followed them closely and I believe the kangaroos are a smokey for the top 4 this year. Reasons -

Recruited for now
2-3 years ago we drafted well and these players will come thru this year
Spine - Brown, Hay, Grant, Thomson, Rocca
Beat most fo the teams in top 8 last year, just lost against the bottom 8!
Finished 5th last year, remember?
Got some serious height this year - apart from the spine above add Hale, Macintosh, Jade Rawlings, Petrie, Watt
One of the most consistent midfields in the comp
Archers finale
Play the Power 1st game
On a lighter note the ugliest Coaching panel in the AFL - Laidley, Bewick, Crocker, Mcdonald

Your thoughts?

Beat most teams in the top eight last year?? Hang on..who did you beat? An undermanned St Kilda and that was about it. Yeah you finished 5th last year on the back of a soft draw that would have made Eddie Maguire blush. Two against Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn..there's six wins for a start.

Plenty of height but who is going to get the ball to them? Who is going to win the ball to these blokes, one of the most consistent midfields in the comp? I would rate half a dozen midfields at the very least who are better. Who is going to replace Leigh Colbert..Jade Rawlings?? Jonathon Hay?? LMAO. Last year's finish flattered you immensely and that was proven by the Power in week one of the finals last year. The Kangaroos have many admirable qualities but won't get within cooee of the top four this season.

regards,

REB

[blink]

Melbourne has a great forward line, expect plenty of high scoring games and a 55 percent winning ratio. 6-8 again as I don't see the improvement in this squad that you do Billy.

regards,

REB

Fair call REB, but I do notice that you predict them to finish 6 - 8. I would say any team that finishes 6th and above is a very good chance to win the flag, Melbourne maybe/maybe not, that is why I think they are a smokey. Their ability to kick large scores is certainly a good thing, but against strong defensive sides like Sydney & Adelaide they may struggle.

[Dutchy]

Dutchy,your side sems to be built around solid contributions from Rocca,Thompson and Rawlings,dont hold your breath.

Rocca - Top 10 goalkickers of all time not good enough for you?
Thompson - 50 goals last year, will take that again this year
Rawlings - not in our best 22 but could be useful

[Rik E Boy]

Dutchy,your side sems to be built around solid contributions from Rocca,Thompson and Rawlings,dont hold your breath.

Rocca - Top 10 goalkickers of all time not good enough for you?
Thompson - 50 goals last year, will take that again this year
Rawlings - not in our best 22 but could be useful

Rocca - on your logic, Sydney should redraft Tony Lockett. I've got a lot of respect for Sav but how many snags this year Dutchy?

Thompson - Lots of bunnies in last years draw but you can't knock 50 goals that's for sure.

Rawlings - If he does make your best 22 you are in deep diggery doo as Rocket Eade wouldn't play him for the Bullies. A one trick pony with a dodgy knee.

Middle of the ladder Dutchy.

regards,

REB

[Booney]

8 years since the Big Sav has kicked over 50 goals,he will turn around like The Ghan this year.

[Dutchy]

Beat most teams in the top eight last year?? Hang on..who did you beat? An undermanned St Kilda and that was about it. Yeah you finished 5th last year on the back of a soft draw that would have made Eddie Maguire blush. Two against Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn..there's six wins for a start.

Beat Melbourne, Port, Sydney (premiers?), St Kilda, lost to West Coast by 4 points, beat Freo in Perth and Brisbane at Gabba - had to travel twice to Adelaide in 7 days - 10 games outside Melbourne, yeah good draw...

Plenty of height but who is going to get the ball to them? Who is going to win the ball to these blokes, one of the most consistent midfields in the comp? I would rate half a dozen midfields at the very least who are better. Who is going to replace Leigh Colbert..Jade Rawlings?? Jonathon Hay?? LMAO. Last year's finish flattered you immensely and that was proven by the Power in week one of the finals last year. The Kangaroos have many admirable qualities but won't get within cooee of the top four this season..

Ever heard of Simpson, Harvey, Grant, Rawlings? 4 Flags, 4 All Australians & 5 B&F's amongst them....add up and comers Wells, Harris, Firrito, Jones, Sinclair, Thurley (eww might hit a nerve there)

Answered your own question with Colbert - Hay also an All Australian, excellent recruiting to fill the hole...I did say "Smokey"

[Dutchy]

8 years since the Big Sav has kicked over 50 goals,he will turn around like The Ghan this year.

2006 - 43 goals
2005 - 43 goals
2004 - 49 goals
2003 - 25 goals
2002 - 50 goals

Good result when you chuck in injury and the change in style of play....His stats stack up...simple really

[JK]

I think you have actually backed your opinion up quite well there Dutchy ol' son ...

[Rik E Boy]

Beat most teams in the top eight last year?? Hang on..who did you beat? An undermanned St Kilda and that was about it. Yeah you finished 5th last year on the back of a soft draw that would have made Eddie Maguire blush. Two against Carlton, Collingwood, Hawthorn..there's six wins for a start.

Beat Melbourne, Port, Sydney (premiers?), St Kilda, lost to West Coast by 4 points, beat Freo in Perth and Brisbane at Gabba - had to travel twice to Adelaide in 7 days - 10 games outside Melbourne, yeah good draw...

Freo and Brisbane were not finalists last year and both had poor records at home last season. You lost to West Coast? And that's a positive for the Roos?? That game was at home as well Dutchy. Also, you play games at Canberra so you can hardly complain about having to play a few games outside of Melbourne. Granted though, you did win a few more agains the top eight sides than I thought though but you didn't beat Geelong or Adelaide or a full strength St Kilda. Your approach for the last two years has been top up and that will only maintain your ladder position rather than improve your standings in my view.

Plenty of height but who is going to get the ball to them? Who is going to win the ball to these blokes, one of the most consistent midfields in the comp? I would rate half a dozen midfields at the very least who are better. Who is going to replace Leigh Colbert..Jade Rawlings?? Jonathon Hay?? LMAO. Last year's finish flattered you immensely and that was proven by the Power in week one of the finals last year. The Kangaroos have many admirable qualities but won't get within cooee of the top four this season..

Ever heard of Simpson, Harvey, Grant, Rawlings? 4 Flags, 4 All Australians & 5 B&F's amongst them....add up and comers Wells, Harris, Firrito, Jones, Sinclair, Thurley (eww might hit a nerve there)

Simpson, Harvey, Grant, Rawlings?? LMAO. Like I said there are at least half a dozen midfields who are better. B&F's don't con't for squat when you are comparing sides and the All Australian concept is a joke also. Harris I rate as a midfielder and Wells is an exciting talent but getting excited over Thurley is laughable..a VFL player.

Answered your own question with Colbert - Hay also an All Australian, excellent recruiting to fill the hole...I did say "Smokey"

Yep, you blokes are a smokey..a smokey for the top eight and Hay isn't worth half of Leigh Colbert and you know it. What's worse for you blokes is that Mike Sheehan predicted you would make the top four..bye bye.

regards,

REB