The Pav on the market?

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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Ruben Carter » Sun Apr 26, 2009 10:53 pm

FD88 wrote:
Rotter wrote:I'm missing something here. If he leaves to play in a side with a chance to win a flag he isn't going to Adelaide. Any Crow supporter who thinks they're within 5 or 6 years of a flag are kidding themselves. Your little ship sailed about two or three years ago with a back to back choking in the Prelims.

If he wants a flag in the next say 5 years he's going to one of Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton? (maybe), Saint Kilda or Brisbane


Many "Experts" have us pegged as one of the better-placed sides to prosper in the coming GC17-affected years. I'd suggest we're only a couple of seasons away from serious contention again, and imo if Pav is looking to come home the Crows look the better option going forward than the other mob.

Having said that, he's getting old now and you would think the club will do the right thing and offer very little for him, if anything at all. He had his chance a few years ago and threw it away.

I understand why Robert Shaw labelled Crows supporters as "ignorant" in a football sense.
I recall some of them being highly critical of trading Sean Wellman for Darren Jarman because of Fud's relative age at that time. What happened ??? He was the reason you now have 2 premierships instead of none. If I was at the Crows and thought he was only a 1% chance of moving... I'd move heaven and earth to get him. He has at least 3 years of AFL left in him and he's a superstar !!!
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Hondo » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:12 pm

Ruben Carter wrote:I recall some of them being highly critical of trading Sean Wellman for Darren Jarman because of Fud's relative age at that time. What happened ??? He was the reason you now have 2 premierships instead of none.


I don't recall that anyone cared! Sean had played a few games and was promising but he came into his own once he was at the Bombers. I recall everyone was right behind the move. And we wasn't the sole reason we won those flags anyway. He was a big part but I'd suggest the swapping of A McLeod for Chris Groom was equally important. Plus one M Blight!

DJ was 28. Pav will be 29. But back then drafting was a far less exact science and was more hit and miss. Teams gave away first round draft picks with barely a thought. Now if you give up a top 5 pick (what Pav MAY cost) you could be giving up a career star player.

Pav would be great it would depend on 1 where does he want to go 2 the cost.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby FD88 » Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:46 am

Ruben Carter wrote:I understand why Robert Shaw labelled Crows supporters as "ignorant" in a football sense.
I recall some of them being highly critical of trading Sean Wellman for Darren Jarman because of Fud's relative age at that time. What happened ??? He was the reason you now have 2 premierships instead of none. If I was at the Crows and thought he was only a 1% chance of moving... I'd move heaven and earth to get him. He has at least 3 years of AFL left in him and he's a superstar !!!


Alright firstly, my comment was overzealous. The notion of not making an offer at all for a player of his quality is short-sighted so I take your point there. I'm just a little tired of the constant Pav speculation after it being done so many times with nothing coming of it.

Look, I'm not saying I outright wouldn't want Pavlich at Adelaide; he's an absolute gun and would be a boost to any club. But his standalone value along with what he would have meant to us back in 2005 or 2006 are both far different to now. At that stage we had the superstar midfield and were probably just that one gun forward away from another flag or two. Pav was also in his mid 20s at the time; i.e. the very prime of his career; this gives any good forward strong currency. But given the makeup of our side, it would probably have been worth more to us than just about any club at the time. There was a massive incentive there for us no doubt.

Fast-forward to now and we're talking about a trade at the end of 2009, if not 2010. You're talking about a 28/29 year old Pavlich walking into the club, with that gun midfield gone. We predict we might start to contend again in 2011, assuming all of these kids can build and deliver on their promise, but what if they take a little longer to truly emerge? 2012? 2013? All of a sudden it's a 31 year old Pavlich who may not have the same impact. The situation is very different this time; far more speculative and hence risky.

My basic point is his standalone currency has dropped since 05-06, as has his overall potential value to us. But you would expect Freo to ask a pretty similar price, which Adelaide would not likely be willing to pay and rightly so. "Moving heaven and earth" to get him? A stupid amount of risk to take on given where we're at.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby JK » Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:37 am

Think that explains things perfectly FD
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Hondo » Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:46 am

Darren Jarman came into a badly under-performing, arguably poorly coached team with a lot of untapped upside in it's 20-25 year old players. As history showed it was in a premiership window that coincided with his remaining high performing years. That's not where the Crows are at now.

A bit like where the Crows where when NC started which would have been the ideal time for Pav to arrive.

I think Pav would see the Crows 2009 as a similar boat that he's on now. While it's a better boat it, like Freo, is a team transitioning from one generation to another and playing a lot of kids.

If he wants a flag in the next 3 years then, as I said before, I think he needs to look in Victoria. If he looked at a team with the colours of red/white/black I think he'd get his wish!
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby bobster » Mon Apr 27, 2009 12:46 pm

in all honestly if we can pick the pav up for something small i'd be al for it... but trading vb for him wouldnt be the right thing to do. i think the crows should firstly concentrate on keeping tippet, which i think he is keen on staying. if u could get the pav for next to nothing, which if he is keen on another flag i think he should consider it. i could be that extra option in the forward line whilst tippet is rucking and we all no he can play on the ball and down back.

with the drafting of carey a few years back i think it was a right move, but just didnt pay of as he had a year off before playing with us which everybody seems to forget... im sure he woulda help out the movement of the forward line alot aswell and he wasnt that bad to b honest when we got him, still did as much as the other forwards at the time...so i think that pav would be a better chance of playing better footy then carey did for the crows and to compare the to situations is a bit unfair...
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby RoosterMarty » Mon Apr 27, 2009 8:53 pm

No thanks. Pav can rot in purple for all I care. Apparently he doesn't want to move now anyway, that was the latest report I saw anyway, but he can stay at the club going nowhere and continue to test himself in Western Derbys (the only big games Freo ever play in). We don't need him. Plus he is a bit of a choker, we stuff up badly enough in finals as it is.. don't need another bloke who can't perform under pressure.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Rik E Boy » Tue Apr 28, 2009 10:14 am

Pav will stay at Freo because he doesn't want to join Adelaide's 18 man defensive unit. ;)

regards,

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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Gingernuts » Tue Apr 28, 2009 11:26 am

Rik E Boy wrote:Pav will stay at Freo because he doesn't want to join Adelaide's 18 man defensive unit. ;)

regards,

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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby carey » Tue Apr 28, 2009 4:07 pm

Gingernuts wrote:Hey folks,

Just had a look at an interesting article written by Gary Lyon in the Age yesterday:

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2009/04/21/1240079672290.html

Basically it suggests that if the Pav is serious about winning a flag before he retires he has to leave Fremantle.

The man is now 28, would people be happy for the Crows to put in a serious bid for him or has that ship sailed?



this topic has gone on for about 3 years now the crows would've of taken him 2 years ago but will they want a 30 year old at the expence of of 23 or 24 year old 250gamer in van berlo?
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Booney » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:40 am

Would be interesting to see what you all think Adelaide or in fact Port Adelaide should offer up for Pavlich?

It would have to be ( IMO ) 1 quality young tall ( to attempt to replace the loss of the KPP in Pavlich ) one quality on baller ( to attempt to replace the on baller in Pavlich ) and a first round pick.

From Adelaide - Van Berlo and Tippett

From Port - Krakouer and Chaplin/Carlise

It is fair to say that neither SA based club would be willing to give these players up.

What are you combos?
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Psyber » Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:53 am

One round three pick and an older player like Shirley or Doughty would be my limit at Pav's age next season.
I'd have been all for getting him 2 or 3 years ago, but I think I see some hints of declining fitness now..
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Scratched » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:16 pm

I respect pav as a footballer and would have loved to have seen him as a crow in earlier years, but i dont like the idea of younger talent being pushed a side for a 28 year old. Not the image that the crows should be presenting. I think we have a real future foward line in Tippett and Walker and should show total faith in them. Its a shame that Pav didnt make the move earlier. I think that he could have been a potential captain at the club and would have been more dominant then he has been in the purple. If he does make the move do you think he could still take the captaincy with Goodwins run coming to an end?
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby JK » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:22 pm

Psyber wrote:One round three pick and an older player like Shirley or Doughty would be my limit at Pav's age next season..


You wouldn't even bother then as the insult might harm future trading relations ... I don't think Booney's far off the mark with what the Dockers would want, and also on the money with the Crows nor Power being willing to offer that much.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Scratched » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:23 pm

Booney wrote:Would be interesting to see what you all think Adelaide or in fact Port Adelaide should offer up for Pavlich?

It would have to be ( IMO ) 1 quality young tall ( to attempt to replace the loss of the KPP in Pavlich ) one quality on baller ( to attempt to replace the on baller in Pavlich ) and a first round pick.

From Adelaide - Van Berlo and Tippett

From Port - Krakouer and Chaplin/Carlise

It is fair to say that neither SA based club would be willing to give these players up.

What are you combos?



I think the total trade would be alot more complicated then just a clean swap. I believe there would be other clubs brought into it and draft picks throwing around as well to try and keep the team as stable as possible. But a foward would definatly have to go as fremantle are short in that department. IMO i definatly wouldnt be sending Tippett and Van Berlo, Maybe James Seller and Shirley. Two players that havent been required to a great extent this year. Tippett and Van Berlo both look to be in the future plans at the Crows.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Booney » Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:58 pm

It's not a matter of what you would offer, but what Freo would expect.

You then need to weigh up if it is worth it. My point has been made as I think what I mentioned would be what Freo would expect and I dont think either SA based club would be willing to give up anywhere near that sort of a deal.

I think Pav will be confined to the most unfortunate club there is, a champion player who will never experience a Premiership.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby bobster » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:07 pm

Booney wrote:It's not a matter of what you would offer, but what Freo would expect.

You then need to weigh up if it is worth it. My point has been made as I think what I mentioned would be what Freo would expect and I dont think either SA based club would be willing to give up anywhere near that sort of a deal.

I think Pav will be confined to the most unfortunate club there is, a champion player who will never experience a Premiership.


i think that last statement could be true, and if it is, its his own fault as he has had numerous opportunities to come back to sa... wouldnt mind seeing shirely and seller cross the border in exchange for him tho... or seller and a draft pick...
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Hondo » Wed Apr 29, 2009 8:29 pm

The fact that an equitable swap has to be agreed by 2 clubs is what keeps these 28+ players stuck at their existing clubs.

And it's the reason that some form of free agency for older players will come in sooner rather than later.

As Booney said, the price Freo would ask would have the 15 other clubs saying "forget it", a la Ryan O'Keefe.

The salary cap system would ensure no one club goes on a buying frenzy but at least these older players can take back some control over the last few years of their careers.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Voice » Fri May 01, 2009 1:01 am

Booney wrote:It's not a matter of what you would offer, but what Freo would expect.

You then need to weigh up if it is worth it. My point has been made as I think what I mentioned would be what Freo would expect and I dont think either SA based club would be willing to give up anywhere near that sort of a deal.

I think Pav will be confined to the most unfortunate club there is, a champion player who will never experience a Premiership.

People said that about Crawf 4 years ago and surely people aren't falling for this premiership window crap. No-one said the Hawks would have there premiership window in 08 to 10 but they could easily win flags in this period and beyond. Most said that the Saints were well past it and look at them this year, no real good recruiting, just a better attitude. Smart clubs will be able to remain competitive and if you're competitive and make the finals, anything can happen, regardless of windows, doors, houses, whatever analogy you want to put in it.
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Re: The Pav on the market?

Postby Booney » Fri May 01, 2009 9:04 am

Voice wrote:
Booney wrote:It's not a matter of what you would offer, but what Freo would expect.

You then need to weigh up if it is worth it. My point has been made as I think what I mentioned would be what Freo would expect and I dont think either SA based club would be willing to give up anywhere near that sort of a deal.

I think Pav will be confined to the most unfortunate club there is, a champion player who will never experience a Premiership.

People said that about Crawf 4 years ago and surely people aren't falling for this premiership window crap. No-one said the Hawks would have there premiership window in 08 to 10 but they could easily win flags in this period and beyond. Most said that the Saints were well past it and look at them this year, no real good recruiting, just a better attitude. Smart clubs will be able to remain competitive and if you're competitive and make the finals, anything can happen, regardless of windows, doors, houses, whatever analogy you want to put in it.


Can you read? Where do I mention anything about a "Premiership window" ?

As for your last sentence, we are talking about Fremantle. Smart club? No.

Before you climb up on your horse try and comprehend what the post is about before you comment on it.
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