Which AFL club will be under the most pressure to move?

[Sojourner]

In the wake of North Melbourne's decision to stay in Melbourne rather than relocate to the Gold Coast, which club will start to feel the pressure to have to make an amalgamation or relocation decision?

North Melbourne seem to have their financial future planned out fairly well, so we will see how they go.

Richmond and Hawthorn are two sides who although they havent had heaps of success in recent years, still have massive amounts of members and good sponsorship, so I can see either of them feeling any real heat over it.

The Western Bulldogs have an appearance of having traded their way out of debt, so they seem to be on the road to recovery.

Essendon and Collingwood clearly are going to be around no matter what happens as they have huge membership bases.

Carlton have been traditionally one of the big three and for the same reasons as Collingwood and Essendon will likely remain financially viable even though they have had some problems.

Geelong are clearly financially viable and home ground advantage will likely help!

Melbourne have the fewest amount of members, yet have some fairly wealthy benefactors that have an interest in keeping their club alive and that could well keep them viable.

St Kilda is the one club that I feel could be next in line then for some tactics from the AFL to force a decision on. Yet again if their members rally around the club as the Kangaroos have, I cant see where the AFL can go next?

[blink]

The AFL will just create a 17th licence and let the Southport Sharks with their 20000+ members and million dollar social club enter the competition. Problem solved (from the AFL's point of view anyway).

[blink]

Sorry, I mean their 40000+ members!

[JK]

Hopefully Port (lol Just kidding Millsn)

[HeartBeatsTrue]

The Kangaroos are just delaying the inevitable. Theres too many clubs in Vic.

I hope the new Gold Coast team have either "blue" or "white" in their colours. It will make the amalgamation with North Melbourne much easier.

[heater31]

The Kangaroos are just delaying the inevitable. Theres too many clubs in Vic.

I hope the new Gold Coast team have either "blue" or "white" in their colours. It will make the amalgamation with North Melbourne much easier.

now is the time for Andy D to cut all assistance to struggling clubs if you can't stand on your own two feet then f**k off.

oh wish Phil G was still around

[stan]

I think until the number of melb based clubs has changed there will always be that pressure. Only the stronger ($$$$ stronger) will be able to survive. The Kanga's are the choice at the moment.

[Dirko]

Interesting topic...IMO I thimk the Roos days are numbered. If the AFL do what many are predicting and pull out any financial help, what will happen to them.
Hawthorn for mine should give thought about moving to Tasmania. Perhaps play 3/4 of the "home" games in Tassie and leave the big games i.e vs Essendon @ the MCG.
Collingwood, Essendon & Carlton have the three biggest membership bases in Victoria and pull the biggest crowds so future is all but guaranteed.
St Kilda, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs & Richmond all seem to be doing OK, although many thoughts on Melbourne's future (merge with Hawthorn etc etc).
Geelong are a "regional' side and therefore will always have the supporter base.
My verdict, Hawthorn to Tassie, Roos to get swallowed by the Gold Coast Waves....

[Punk Rooster]

The Kangaroos are just delaying the inevitable. Theres too many clubs in Vic.

I hope the new Gold Coast team have either "blue" or "white" in their colours. It will make the amalgamation with North Melbourne much easier.

Southport Sharks...

well the ocean is blue, & white-pointer sharks live in it....

Edit- Southport's jumper...

[mal]

St Kilda is very high on the agenda to be the QL entity

[Hazbeen]

The AFL has also always mooted a 2nd team in Sydney based in the western suburbs.

Didn't Footscray change their name to the Western Bulldogs to pre-empt a move and cash in on the conatation as a team for all western suburbs bogans in both Melb and Syd.

[Rushby Hinds]

The AFL has also always mooted a 2nd team in Sydney based in the western suburbs.

Didn't Footscray change their name to the Western Bulldogs to pre-empt a move and cash in on the conatation as a team for all western suburbs bogans in both Melb and Syd.

No they didn't.

[CUTTERMAN]

The Gold Coast has been pushing for a license for a long time now apperently going back to 1996/7 when Port entered, they are cashed up big time from their "sports club, pokies, social club sprawling monster", I hate them, this is why the AFL are pushing NM now. It seems to me that the AFL is trying to kill 2 birds with one stone, 1. finally deal with NM. and the Vic problem 2. widen the AFL product and honour the efforts of the push from the Gold Coast. I'd hate for it to happen to my club but lets face it, it's about money now and being financially viable and independent.
However it seems the AFL have got blinkers on over this matter and that Demitriou has dug his heels in. Surely if you were going to bring in a new club from Qld you'd do it at a time when two others would merge so as not to create a problem with the bye, that he is talking about a 17 team comp seems stubborn and ridiculous.
Vic needs to merge 2 clubs or semi-relocate 2, SA and WA can't support anymore teams, I don't think NSW/SYD can support another team, NT can't full stop and Tas can't support a team as an entity of their own, ie without Hawks going to Tas.
The AFL should've given NM 1 or 2 years to get it together or face a merger or relocation, but I don't think the AFL is big on good communication with their license holders, "do as I say pal or else".

[Hondo]

There's also talk of a second team in Sydney sooner rather than later

I am sure the AFL's ideal solution is relocating to Melbourne based teams rather then creating a 17th and 18th team

[Psyber]

The Gold Coast has been pushing for a license for a long time now apperently going back to 1996/7 when Port entered, they are cashed up big time from their "sports club, pokies, social club sprawling monster", I hate them, this is why the AFL are pushing NM now. It seems to me that the AFL is trying to kill 2 birds with one stone, 1. finally deal with NM. and the Vic problem 2. widen the AFL product and honour the efforts of the push from the Gold Coast. I'd hate for it to happen to my club but lets face it, it's about money now and being financially viable and independent.
However it seems the AFL have got blinkers on over this matter and that Demitriou has dug his heels in. Surely if you were going to bring in a new club from Qld you'd do it at a time when two others would merge so as not to create a problem with the bye, that he is talking about a 17 team comp seems stubborn and ridiculous.
Vic needs to merge 2 clubs or semi-relocate 2, SA and WA can't support anymore teams, I don't think NSW/SYD can support another team, NT can't full stop and Tas can't support a team as an entity of their own, ie without Hawks going to Tas.
The AFL should've given NM 1 or 2 years to get it together or face a merger or relocation, but I don't think the AFL is big on good communication with their license holders, "do as I say pal or else".

All the Melbourne based clubs have had about 10 years warning already. They've just convinced themselves they are too important for the AFL administration to let them go down the tube. So, they think they can hold out and be propped up forever. NM will squeal like pigs when their subsidy goes to support a new team or someone else who agrees to relocate.

If no one agrees to relocate the only option is create new teams and leave the old ones to founder, since the AFL can't actually force them to relocate or merge or disband.

[Strawb]

Geelong the AFL would prefer them to play all games in Melbourne

[CUTTERMAN]

If I was living in Vic and following a Vic team that was going down the gurgler, my best outcome would be a merger with another Vic based team, at least you can still see them play and can have some sort of ownership of the club, a move interstate would finish my interest in footy. If the AFL want another team in Qld then they should start one from scratch. It sounds like a Gold Coast team is viable as alot of Victorians and South Aussies have moved up there, I'm not at all convinced another team is viable in Sydney, it would have to be the toughest market in Australia.
There seems to be a bit of hipocracy with the stance that the AFL is taking with struggling Vic clubs, they're still willing to prop up Carlton and I bet they'd never want to see them merge or move, the brand is too integral to the comp., however when it comes to clubs like Hawthorn, NM, Footscray and St Kilda (you could possibly throw in Melb and Rich) they're pretty keen to put them to the sword.
Financially, I think NM will do ok for a year and then will slip back in the next year and eventually merge with Footscray or another struggling club, then it will leave it open for a 16 team comp including the Gold Coast.

[Psyber]

If I was living in Vic and following a Vic team that was going down the gurgler, my best outcome would be a merger with another Vic based team, at least you can still see them play and can have some sort of ownership of the club, a move interstate would finish my interest in footy. If the AFL want another team in Qld then they should start one from scratch. It sounds like a Gold Coast team is viable as alot of Victorians and South Aussies have moved up there, I'm not at all convinced another team is viable in Sydney, it would have to be the toughest market in Australia.
There seems to be a bit of hipocracy with the stance that the AFL is taking with struggling Vic clubs, they're still willing to prop up Carlton and I bet they'd never want to see them merge or move, the brand is too integral to the comp., however when it comes to clubs like Hawthorn, NM, Footscray and St Kilda (you could possibly throw in Melb and Rich) they're pretty keen to put them to the sword.
Financially, I think NM will do ok for a year and then will slip back in the next year and eventually merge with Footscray or another struggling club, then it will leave it open for a 16 team comp including the Gold Coast.

You are probably right about Vic. mergers beiing more acceptable to Vic. fans than relocations - but no-one will merge either. You are probably also right that they will come in time and that that will be what happens to North Melbourne, or to a club doing less well thean them. I think two teams less in Melbourne is the absolute minimum for viability though.