Dutchy's Stats so far..plus previews by stats

[Dutchy]

Ive been keeping stats, something I havent done before to try and improve my tipping...one thing I work on the most is Inside 50's for and against as I believe these give a great indication of how hard the midfields are working and how good they are....heres my findings -

Inside 50's Net Result (For - against = ) e.g Sydney have had 193 I50's and only conceded 146

Sydney 47
Geelong 38
Saints 38
Port 24
Adelaide 11
West Coast6
Hawthorn 5
Freo 1
Brisbane -7
Carlton -10
Collingwood-10
Kangaroos -11
Essendon -21
West Bullies-21
Richmond -36
Melbourne -54

Its only 4 Rounds I know but it gives some trends and shows that a midfield not only needs to have great offensive skills but defensive skills as well when they havent got the ball...Bulldogs is a great case in point here, we know how attacking they are but there ranking above shows that they allow way too many opportunites for the opponent to get I50

Ill add some more stats later...

[Rik E Boy]

Dutchy. A few years back I started keeping free kick stats as the maggots are a protected species. I even devised a premiership table for frees for and free against and goals scored off of frees and goals scored against.

To my surprise, Carlton topped the ladder in the free kick differential even though they were on the bottom of the table and the eventual premiers Sydney were way down the bottom..a trend that continues today I believe.

I reckon Essendon and Collingwood get a pretty good run with free kicks and they'd be my tips for the leaders at this stage of the season. Perhaps you might want to do some free kick stats.

regards,

REB

[Dutchy]

Here you go REB -


1 West Coast 4 4 0 0 98 68 16 144.12
2 Kangaroos 4 4 0 0 79 64 16 123.44
3 Port Adel 4 3 1 0 82 68 12 120.59
4 St Kilda 4 2 1 1 78 70 10 111.43
5 Essendon 5 2 2 1 88 88 10 100.00
6 Geelong 4 2 2 0 81 78 8 103.85
7 Richmond 4 2 2 0 76 77 8 98.70
8 Adelaide 6 1 1 2 67 71 8 94.37

9 W Bulldogs 4 1 1 2 79 84 8 94.05
10 Hawthorn 4 2 2 0 79 85 8 92.94
11 Melbourne 4 2 2 0 70 76 8 92.11
12 Sydney 4 2 2 0 73 82 8 89.02
13 Bris Lions 4 1 3 0 75 75 4 100.00
14 Collingwood 5 1 4 0 82 89 4 92.13
15 Carlton 4 1 3 0 65 76 4 85.53
16 Fremantle 4 0 4 0 79 97 0 81.44

[Dutchy]

Alright, using my new AFL Stats spreadsheet Ive decided to do an in depth preview of the Carlton/Brisbane game for you tippers out there who cant decide on this one -

Both teams are 2-2 and would see this as a critical game. A review of Carltons season sees them winning 2 close games and getting spanked in their losses both by over 10 goals. Brisbane are smarting after winning their first 2 and then beating Sydney for 3 quarters and then a soft effort against the Roos. Looking at their oppontents so far you would suggest Brisbane have had the tougher draw. Carlton are coming back from Perth and have a 6 day break however teams coming back from Perth were 11-8 last season so that stat hasnt stood up since 2003 when record was a dismal 2-19.

2007 Stats - Carlton have kicked 60 more points than the Lions but have conceded 205 more points, Lions are 3rd in the AFL for points conceded and Carlton are 16th, even Melbourne and Richmond have conceded less points. Carlton have had 21 more Inside 50's than the Lions but have conceded 45 more to the opposition than the Lions (again the Blues are bottom of the league here). Points conceded per Inside 50 shows Brisbane only 2nd to West Coast at 1.47 points per I50 conceded but the Blues again Worst at 2.23 points per I50 conceded. Carlton are 2nd in the league for Scoring Shots per I50 entry (58%) but again they are worst in the league conceding a socring shot 61% of the time the opposition penetrates their 50. Lions are 6th in the league for scoring once inside 50 and 2nd for conceding at 46%.

Despite Carlton's attacking flair that are only slightly above AFL average for scoring.but are conceding on average 121 points per game. Lions have won their last 5 games between the 2 sides including the last 2 in Melbourne with an averaging winning margin of 40 points.

Brisbane's record at the Dome is the only thing that worries me slightly here being 1-4 last season and 2-2 in 2005.

Apart from that and barring any major changes at the selection table Im quite confident on BRISBANE to win this and possibley quite comfortabley.

[Rik E Boy]

Here you go REB -


1 West Coast 4 4 0 0 98 68 16 144.12
2 Kangaroos 4 4 0 0 79 64 16 123.44
3 Port Adel 4 3 1 0 82 68 12 120.59
4 St Kilda 4 2 1 1 78 70 10 111.43
5 Essendon 5 2 2 1 88 88 10 100.00
6 Geelong 4 2 2 0 81 78 8 103.85
7 Richmond 4 2 2 0 76 77 8 98.70
8 Adelaide 6 1 1 2 67 71 8 94.37

9 W Bulldogs 4 1 1 2 79 84 8 94.05
10 Hawthorn 4 2 2 0 79 85 8 92.94
11 Melbourne 4 2 2 0 70 76 8 92.11
12 Sydney 4 2 2 0 73 82 8 89.02
13 Bris Lions 4 1 3 0 75 75 4 100.00
14 Collingwood 5 1 4 0 82 89 4 92.13
15 Carlton 4 1 3 0 65 76 4 85.53
16 Fremantle 4 0 4 0 79 97 0 81.44

Nice work Dutchy. A bit surprised about the Pies.

regards,

REB

[Hondo]

How's the table for offensive efficiency (inside 50s converted into goals) and defensive efficiency (opposition inside 50s not converted into goals)?

Good stats Dutchy

[Dutchy]

How's the table for offensive efficiency (inside 50s converted into goals) and defensive efficiency (opposition inside 50s not converted into goals)?

Good stats Dutchy

My spreadsheet works on offensive efficiency as I50's divided by Scoring Shots and Points, vice versa for Defensive efficiency...I do it on scoring shots as I believe it is more accurate than goals scored as teams will shoot 19.3 one week and then 10.12 the other but with my method the 22 scoring shots gets recorded as it was 22 opportunites to score a goal.

Heres the stats for scoring when Inside 50 -

Essendon 58%
Carlton 57%
Geelong 56%
West Coast56%
Richmond 52%
Brisbane 51%
Kangaroos 51%
Port 50%
Sydney 50%
Melbourne 49%
West Bullies48%
Collingwood48%
Hawthorn 48%
Adelaide 48%
Freo 46%
Saints 46%

Heres the stats for scoring shots conceded once opposition has the ball I50

Carlton 61%
Richmond 57%
Melbourne 55%
West Bullies53%
Freo 52%
Collingwood52%
Saints 51%
Essendon 50%
Kangaroos 50%
Port 49%
Geelong 49%
Sydney 49%
Hawthorn 48%
Adelaide 46%
Brisbane 46%
West Coast41%

Hers the website I get my other stats info from - http://afl.allthestats.com/

[blink]

Good work there Dutchy - looks like you take your tipping seriously.

Maybe you could post your 8 winners on here every week. God knows I need all the help I can get - I couldn't tip a fat chick off of a tight-rope this year!

[Dutchy]

my tipping hasnt been great, just above average I think, heres mine -

Port
WCE
Brisbane
Sydney
Bullies
Geelong
Freo

Freo is the hard one because all the stats say Crows, but at some stage the Crows injuries have to hurt them and Freo are one team that can bang on a big score

[mighty_tiger_79]

BLINK

you should be fully aware that DUTCHY with all of his stats is poor in tipping competitions!!!!!!!!

he just uses his stats to make money every week

see gambling room for confirmation

[Dutchy]

An quirky stat so far this season....teams travelling back from Perth have a 2-1 record the following week HOWEVER have a 0-3 record the 2nd week after travelling to Perth....if Adelaide lose this weekend it will be 0-4...

The Perth trip theory really hasnt had any statistical legs since 2003 the following week, I think clubs recognise the recovery aspect coming back from Perth but maybe the hangover doesnt hit until a fortnight later????

Done the stats for this round and BASED ON STATS here are the tips for the weekend -

Roos
Collingwood
Port
Brisbane
Sydney
West Coast
Bullies
Hawks

It also points to Sydney/Saints being a low scoring game and Bullies/Melbourne being a high scoring affair...

[mal]

Heres the stat that counts
West Coast
6 games
6 wins
2007 premiership as well....

[Dutchy]

Heres the stat that counts
West Coast
6 games
6 wins
2007 premiership as well....

and $2.10 to win this week

[mal]

Heres the stat that counts
West Coast
6 games
6 wins
2007 premiership as well....

and $2.10 to win this week

Playing the 2nd best team in the comp at their home ground,
Geelong can win this week, but wont beat WC in the ninth month
Its the same ground Geelong nearly beat the mighty Kangaroos as well.....

[Dutchy]

Heres the stat that counts
West Coast
6 games
6 wins
2007 premiership as well....

and $2.10 to win this week

Playing the 2nd best team in the comp at their home ground,
Geelong can win this week, but wont beat WC in the ninth month
Its the same ground Geelong nearly beat the mighty Kangaroos as well.....

Geelong have only won once in their last 6 SKilled Stadium appearances....and they have beaten 14th, 15th & 16th so far...WCE for me

[mighty_tiger_79]

do teams with good figures in Hard Ball gets, centre clearances and I50's win more then they lose???

[Dutchy]

do teams with good figures in Hard Ball gets, centre clearances and I50's win more then they lose???

havent got the first 2 but I50's its important not to only judge how many they get but their efficiency once I50 and also how many they concede to the opposition

[Dissident]

LOL Golden Shower Warriors

[mighty_tiger_79]

do teams with good figures in Hard Ball gets, centre clearances and I50's win more then they lose???

havent got the first 2 but I50's its important not to only judge how many they get but their efficiency once I50 and also how many they concede to the opposition

i agree 100% with what you have said, but i was just curious...

im thinking that a team that is good in centre clearances may have a high I50 stat........