by Trader » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:24 am
Yup, agreed Hayley's pitch was perfect, managed to get both George and Cara to agree with her.
Interesting to see what would have happened if Cara told Hayley before the tribal that she was on board to vote George.
On one hand, you would think Hayley would have taken that in a heartbeat, guaranteed herself final 3, and removed George as one of the big threats, and keeping a goat (Cara) in the game she can take to final two if she (Hayley) wins the final challenge.
However, playing a longer game, by getting rid of Cara now rather than George, Hayley has all but guaranteed herself a seat in the final two. Despite her strong resume, she in many respects is the safest option to take with you to the final two. George won't take Flick as flick has too many friends on the Jury. Flick won't take George as George has the best game play (in terms of controlling the votes) this season. Mean's Hayley can now plead her case come Sunday Night.
Hayley presented well to George and Cara to get them to flip on each other and keep her to try and take out Flick at final three.
If she can persuade the jury equally well on Sunday by explaining her decision to get rid of Cara at 4 not George, as that guaranteed her final two, then for mine that will be enough to get her over the line if the jury votes based on game play. If they vote on friendship, then it could be a totally different matter.
The other twist in it all is how the jury will judge the second chances.
George was saved by Cara playing an idol.
Hayley was saved by redemption rock.
Flick was saved by the urns.
4th placed Cara was saved twice, once by George's idol play and once by her eviction sending her to the brawn tribe.
On the surface the final three have all been saved once, and therefore that cancels each other out and it shouldn't really be a factor. However, I suspect it still will be.
George being saved by an idol, is, in many respects, 'acceptable' to the observer as idol's have been a part of the game since they first popped up back in 2005(ish).
The urns are not a common feature of survivor, so many may see this as the worst of the three saves. However as the urns were introduced at the tribal prior (Andrew's eviction), everyone knew when they were voting Flick out that she had the ability to save herself with the correct pick, and therefore they may have 'come to terms' with that possibility occurring. By comparison, when they voted Hayley out, they thought she was gone. Yes, redemption rock (/island), isn't a brand new concept, and should be somewhat expected in survivor seasons, at the time the players voted Hayley out, they didn't know she was a chance to come back and this could therefore make it 'worse' in their eyes.
I'm worried this could work against Hayley and be the reason (excuse?) many vote against her.
If you can't tell, I'm hoping for a Hayley win. I think she's done the best this season.
Yes she made a mistake when she was exposed, and got voted out, but for mine this is her only blemish, and it came when she was backed into a corner.
By contrast, George made a bigger mistake at the start of the game IMO when he put himself in the minority. He wasn't being targeted, and at the first tribal, he upset half the tribe by evicting them from the tribal, and insulting the remainder by saying they were not part of the alpha pack. George made himself a target and then only survived on the back of Cara playing an idol for him, that had she known she was the back-up vote, she wouldn't have.
While I'm cheering for Hayley, I'd still be fine with a George win, as he has been good from about episode 4 onwards. He's zigged when he needed to zig and zagged when zagging was required.
Flick on the other hand doesn't have a resume for mine. She found an idol late, and while it saved herself, it was used poorly and she didn't remove her biggest threat at that time (George). She then won the immunity at final 4. That's it. (And lets be honest, the last few challenges have hardly been inspiring wins; watching 5 people who can't throw trying to hit targets with beanbags has been almost cringeworthy viewing).
Basically she's only a chance cause there are a heap of brawns on the jury, and potentially the empathy vote with her mum's death.
(By no means am I saying she's trying the play the mum card, or if the perception should be held against her. Just saying her game play and performance doesn't come close to either George or Hayley, IMO).
Any way this plays out, Sunday should be entertaining.
Danny Southern telling Plugga he's fat, I'd like to see that!