With a week to go I will have a crack at how I think it may play out
Assembly
I am not expecting the Liberals to lose any of their existing seats, Adelaide should be held, Dunstan with an increased majority (due to Marshall's profile) and I cannot see Morialta shifting. Van Horst Pellikaan in Stuart is a step too far for the ALP.
In the super marginals - Hartley, Bright and Ashford - it is hard to see the ALP retaining any of these, I am expecting all to be Lib gain.
That will take them to 21 seats in the chamber.
The Liberals have run a massive campaign in Elder behind Carolyn Habib, the ALP in return have only thrown up a repeated failed candidate in Digance. This seat will fall on election night.
Mitchell is harder to read. Again Kris Hanna has thrown his hat in the ring making it a three way race. I would expect most Hanna preferences to go to the ALP which may save Sibbons but the Liberals have thrown a lot at this seat and entered a candidate with a reasonable profile in Corey Wingard. This I think will go down to the wire and will end up a marginal seat for either party as I cannot see Hanna getting higher than 3rd. Too close to call.
Newland, Light and Colton are the three danger seats for the ALP, Newland & Light both have the benefit of sitting ministers. If a swing hits as speculated, I would expect Colton to fall first, the local electorate will see Caica as a dumped minister as having less value as a local member. I think we may see two more Ministers (to join Fox & Portolesi) go in the other two.
That will give the Libs 24 seats, enough to form government in their own right.
The other electorates I think will be interesting:
The battle in Lee between the ALP and Gary Johanson - with no incumbent this suddenly becomes interesting. If Johanson can poll more than the Libs it is his. One to watch.
The Liberals have put a lot into Mawson, this one will be very close. If there is a reasonable swing, this is a big chance to fall. I am going to pick this one to go to the Liberals to take them to 25 seats and another Minister down.
Kaurna has become interesting with the addition of Kym Richardson potentially making this a three way race. The Liberal vote was poor here in 2010 but if Richardson directs his prefs mainly to the Libs this could make this a lot closer. No incumbent for Labor also loses the personal Hill vote that may translate into votes for Richardson. Anything could happen here but I am still leaning to the ALP on this one.
I am expecting the three Independent seats to remain with the incumbents
The only other two seats I can see moving are Florey or Giles. Both I think will be held by the ALP, but if there is a big swing could go.
Overall prediction - Liberal 25, ALP 18 or 19, Independent 3 or 4
Council
Upstairs in the Council I am expecting 4 Liberal, 1 Green (Parnell), 1 Family First (Hood), 3 ALP and John Darley
Looking at the preference distributions The last will be between the ALP and the multitude of Independants & Minors.
The candidates I think have a shot are Kyam Maher (ALP), Esther Simbi (D4D), Mark Henley, Joseph Marsika, Neil Armstrong (Fishing & Lifestyle), Michael Hudson (Shooters & Fishers), Mark Aldridge, Trish Nguyen (Multicultural) & Grantley Siviour (NAT).
Could this finally be Mark Aldridge's turn? The serial candidate has favourable preferences from the LDP, Multicultural Party, Fair Land Tax, Katter, Shooters & Fishers & Your Voice Matters.
The smoky is Mark Henley with strong preferences from the ALP, FREE, D4D, Multicultural Party, Joseph Masika, Legal Euthanasia, Animal Justice, Your Voice Matters and importantly Xenophon.
Interestingly the Nationals And Family First have lodged almost exactly the same ticket.
I am going to tip Esther Simbi (Dignity 4 Disability) to join Kelly Vincent with leftover Xenophon preferences and ALP preferences after Maher and the second Green candidate are elimitated with some reasonable first prefs