Is there a shot of Kurt Slaven???

That is Gold HZ ... another quote to use for his reign. Almost as good as "You'll be back".

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl ... 9342b5332a

Don't let the door hit you on the way out!!!!

Adelaide could look to have its Crows reserves join the VFL or NEAFL if the SANFL introduces a cap on the number of AFL-listed players who can be fielded in the State league.

Enjoy mate... 2006, I reckon I was walking on air for around a month. Wore a hole in the T-Shirt
BTW, Tom Harms has been back @ work since Wednesday - won't take off his Medal & said he's been sleeping with it too

01 / 10 / 2016

Sydney’s biggest day of their Spring Carnival – Epsom Day. Looks like the weather forecast is OK for the program, so I think we can bet with a bit of confidence that the track conditions will be OK – working on a Good 4 or a Slow 5? This should mean most runners will get a fair chance to win.
Think I’ll bet early, so I can just enjoy the AFL Grand Final & not worry about having to ‘chase’ or ‘get out’.

Sunday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting @ Flemington looks a Good Day too, weather appears OK & because Flemington ‘drains’ so well these days, I reckon they’ll be racing on a Good Track.

Randwick Race 7 – The Epsom 1600m (Randwick Mile)

Waller dominates the race with almost a ¼ of the field. Weir sends Palentino north to contest the race & Godolphin have just the 1 runner. Interestingly, very little comment around about Gai’s runner – considering her record in Randwick Mile races over the years.
I am prepared to risk Palentino – I think he’s a Flemington specialist. I realise Weir wouldn’t send him to Sydney if he didn’t think he can win & his distance record is excellent, but he’s never raced this way of going & I think he’s a risk @ the $7.50.
I think Hauraki can win he race. He drops 3kgs from WFA last start & his record @ the track is very good.
That said, as always, I won’t be backing him @ that price, but he MUST go into any Trifecta Bet.

I’m backing Le Romain Eachway – I’ve been with him all Spring so far & see no reason to get off. He’s a very honest performer & with Bowman in the seat & his love for this Track, I’m happy with the Odds Boost $15 & the $4 the Place is also good – Backed him 1 x 4 Units .
Am wary of Fabrizio – due to the ‘Gai factor’.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 13

Randwick Race 8 – The Metrop 2400m

Once again, Waller dominates with 6 of the 13 runners. Quite frankly, One would be a fool not to have a ticket on a Waller horse in any race 2000m or greater – he’s just such a great Trainer of Stayers. I guess when assessing this race each year, the Punter is torn between considering which of the runners (if they run well) will go on to the Caulfield Cup in 2 weeks, & those that won’t, having targeted this race as their GF.

From the former perspective, only 11, 12 & 13 haven’t won @ the Mile & a Half – so I’ll remove them.
If we assume that ideally (in the CC) the runner should be 4th or 5th up in order to ‘peak’ for the race, then that removes 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 …
That leaves us with 1, 2, 3, 4 & 11. From the later; 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12

I like them leading into a Caulfield Cup, so of the 5 listed, I’m backing Storm the Stars @ the price, 1 x 3 Units , & he’ll appreciate the weight drop. I think Who Shot the Barman is the best-credentialed runner & the way he finished off last start was very good. I was a Grand Marshal fan but I don’t think he’s the same horse without Jimmy Cassidy riding him – that said he was unsuited by the ‘sit & sprint’ race last start when Hartnel blew them away. Besides, I think his GF is the Melbourne Cup. Interesting Race.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11

Randwick Race 6 – The Flight Stakes 1600m

The Mile race for the 3 yr old Fillies. I am a Yankee Rose Fan, but I’m gunna bet against her in this race. I’m looking for some value.
I know she comes out of a better form race & if Omei Sword was running, then she’d be the favourite not Yankee Rose.
But I am always looking for value. With only the 6 runners, I’ve backed Sezanne .
Of those runners in the Tea Rose over 1400m, she was a bit unlucky when looming into the race.
The ‘blanket finish’ suggests that the ‘price differential’ between her & Awoke, is enough to have a small WIN bet on her.
Taking a Quinella with the Fav, as well as the 6. Also an Exacta: 5 & 6 / 1…
Strategy: 3 Units Win No. 5; 5 Units Quinella 1,5,6; 2 Units Exacta 5 & 6 / 1

Sydney Quaddie (15%) Don't usually do Quaddies, but because there's no main meeting in Melbourne, might take this one:

R6: 1, 5, 6
R7: 2, 3, 7, 8
R8: 1, 2, 4, 5, 12
R9: 2, 3, 11, 12, 13


Flemington (Sunday) The Turnbull Stakes 2000m

What a fine run by Jameka to win last start & gain automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup. She would have to be a genuine Top 5 chance in that race, as she’s very nicely weighted & in fine form. I reckon that Cairon Maher will not expect her to work too hard tomorrow, & will want the Stablemate to do well ( I’m a little biased as I’ve backed her for the Cup ).

This race is very competitive on Sunday, with many chances.
Hartnell’s previous run in Sydney was awesome but way too short IMHO for this race. No doubt Godolphin think he’s a genuine Caulfield Cup horse & that may be true, but I can’t back him @ even money, not with the quality in this field.
The United States can win the race & I personally think he’s a ‘ place special ’ – if I can get 6/4 the place, I’ll load up.
He’ll appreciate the wide straight @ ‘Headquarters’ & I can see him looking the winner a Furlong from home.

I’m backing Set Square (surprise, surprise) – she loves Flemington, she hasn’t had a lot of luck this time in & like The US, I think she’ll ‘fly’ the last Furlong. I can see her getting up on the line, & the $41 Odds Boost on Ladbrokes is too juicy to pass up – Win & Place 1 x 4 Units .
Really looking forward to this race. Could tip 6 or 7 of them & still miss the winner.

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10

Enjoy a HUGE weekend of Sport this week, Lads.
Hopefully I can get some money in the ‘kick’ for the Caulfield Cup in 2 weeks – really looking forward to experiencing my 1st race day @ Caulfield.

Jay's solution would be another 'Levy'
SANFL Levy - paid on ticket prices to AFL Games or AFL Club Memberships, perhaps?
I can see all the Cows & PAPs fans going for that

$25 per Member = $2.25 Million (40K PAPs, 50K Cows) - seem logical

08/ 10/ 2016

Well & truly into the Spring Carnival now – the next 4 weeks is THE best time of the Racing Year. Looking forward to being @ Caulfield next weekend (lots of Form to do next Friday, beginning on the Plane – so not sure when I’ll get to upload my Preview, but it will be up some time).
Before then though, Guineas Day in Melbourne & Spring Champion @ Randwick.
No good last week, despite the Flight Stakes result – hoping for a change in fortune this week…

Caulfield Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas

As you know, I’ve been talking up Impending for a few weeks now. Godolphin are very ‘bullish’ about this Colt, but I can’t back him at the Price he is. If he were $6 & say $2.20 the Place – then I would back him, but $4.40 & $1.80 is too short for me, so I’m looking elsewhere.
I can entertain a PLACE ticket on Seaburge – Hayes Camp is going well & no doubt this race has been targeted. I can see him following Impending into the race around the turn & perhaps he can finish down the middle of the straight to get up.

Kaching might also be a value runner. I heard Ciaron Maher talking a couple of weeks ago, suggesting he’s the best ‘Sprinter’ in the stable – Form is good, if he can get a cozy run in the back ½ of the field & might finish off late. The horse I want to back though is the Waterhouse runner Evacuation . I would love $3 the Place if I can get it – I’ve taken the Enhanced Odds on Ladbrokes the Win.

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 4, 7, 10, 12

Caulfield Race 7 – 1000 Guineas

I think the Filly’s race is wide open, personally. Anything can win this race IMHO. I know Foxplay is the ‘spruke’ but I’m prepared to back against her.
The same old discussion arises between the quality of the Sydney Fillies v Melbourne Fillies.
Traditionally, in recent times at least, Sydney has been better. Unsurprisingly, the 2 x Favourites are Sydney horses - as such, I’ve taken a small PLACE Bet on the other Sydney Filly, Cummings’ Smart Amelia - $18 the Place is way over the Odds IMHO.

I’ve also backed the Kiwi Filly La Luna Rosa . Ollie in the seat, great barrier, maps well (can see her 1 out, 3 back), had the run at Caulfield & the $17 Odds Boost is acceptable for a Gamble Win Bet – taking her 1 x 4 Units . If you can crack the Trifecta in this race, it may well pay handsomely!

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 8, 12, 13

Caulfield Race 6 – Caulfield Stakes

Small field sucks! That said, I took MT’s advice – backed BHB on Ubet to beat Winx.
Money back if the Mare blows them away.

Caulfield Race 9 – Toorak Handicap

What a difficult race! So many chances & variables to consider – at least that means so value Price wise!
Miss Rose De Lago loves this track & her distance record isn’t bad either.
She ran well behind the very good Mare Don’t Tell Mama last start at the Valley. I think she’s way over the Odds at $20 – Backing her 1 x 4 Units.

What you reckon JK – Awesome Rock more of a Flemington horse? I think so, personally, but must admit the $14 is very tempting!
Is Counterattack better suited on a track with the ‘cut’ out of it? Perhaps?
Backed Bon Aurum last start here & he’s still at the E/way Quote of $6, as is the Japanese horse – wouldn’t surprise to see either of them win. The other Weir runner Royal Rapture has form through Tally, which ran well in the Turnbull of Saturday. Great race! Happy to go with the 8 win & place .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8

Randwick Race 7 – Spring Champion Stakes

I did call Yankee Rose getting beat last week – just backed the wrong one the win! But the Exacta paid well ☺
She’s untried at the Mile & a ¼ - the short quote again suggests to stay away from her in this race. Is she set for this race?
I would’ve thought the Coolmore on Derby Day in Melbourne is her goal at this point, or perhaps if she runs well in this race, the McKinnon Stakes with 48.5 kgs on the last day of the Carnival might be an option? I’m prepared to risk her again & look elsewhere.

Waller, O’Shea & Hawkes all have 2 x runners – reckon they hold the key to the race.
The rank outsider leads, I think. 4 & 7 push forward & I can see Avdulla pushing Honeywine up along the fence to sit 3 back the inside. I’m hoping for a genuine tempo in the race because I want to back the other Godolphin runner Retaliation . He wasn’t beaten too far in The Gloaming last start & the ‘winkers’ might just keep him focussed on the job, all the way around. Happy to back him at the ‘Blue Button’ on Sportsbet, again, 1 x 4 Units .

So that's this week, Lads.
The racing is hotting up - must admit I am concerned about Set Square now, after the Turnbull run. Hartnell goes to Cox Plate, so fav for CCup will be Jameka (& why not?). Did you notice no whip pulled in Turnbull? Looking forward to next week in Melbourne :)
Enjoy Guineas Day :)

I see you like Retaliation too MT

15/ 10/ 2016 - Caulfield Cup Day, 2016

Really looking forward to my 1st visit to the Racecourse & sitting in the Stand viewing all the Fillies … Oh, & the Mares, Horses & Colts too ;)
Am ‘cashed up’ for the day too, so hopefully we can find some winners to line the pockets for a night on the town. Truth be told, I’m over here for my Sister-in-law’s 40th Birthday Party @ some swanky French Joint – the Races is just the ‘warm up’! Hope I don’t miss my flight on Sunday… Anyway, to the Ponies (& apologies for the length of the write up):

Caulfield Race 8 – Caulfield Cup

As previously stated on here, I’m somewhat bemused by the negativity around the field assembled for the race. Jameka is the obvious but less than 3/1 is way too short IMHO. Yes, she deserves favouritism, but there are some good Internationals in this field – of them, I think Scottish is the pick. The fact that Godolphin bypassed this race with Hartnel is a good ‘lead’ in my book. I backed Set Square weeks ago & unfortunately I think she’s lost form & the Gate is a big negative – she’ll go back from there IMHO, & that means she’ll need luck in the run to get close.

As you might imagine, I’ve been studying Form all week for the meeting, & am really happy with the $10 Place on Tuesday, I got for Sacred Master on UBet . His 4th in the Metrop was full of merit & as I said last week; you just have to have a ticket on a Waller runner 2000m+. The price was very juicy & so its proven, halving in 3 days! Give Real Love a good chance of winning the race, like Jameka she’s very well weighted. But you can’t back them all, so I’ve settled on backing Scottish 1 x 3 Units @ the track. Backed Set Square @ $51 weeks ago & got Sacred Master for 3 Units the Place.

Box Trifecta: 3, 4, 11, 12, 13, 15

Caulfield Race 10 – Moonga Stakes

I really like Stratum Star at the price in this race. - $24 little blue button is way over the odds for a horse with his record; Track, Distance & 2nd Up!!! The Gate may well be a good one by that stage of the day, so not too worried about that. 2 x 5 Units on him.

Has been a bit of a tip around for No. 9 Durendal & No. 15 Dan Zephyr was a ‘black booker’ last start IMHO. This race could well increase the Quaddie Dividend very nicely if you can get it. Backed Stratum Star already & will also back Dan Zephyr 1 x 4 Units .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 9, 12, 15, 16

Caulfield Race 9 – Caulfield Sprint

All the talk is No. 5 Hellbent . At Even Money, I guess you need to take notice, but as always I can’t fathom taking those odds - he goes in the Quaddie only for me. I never like horses coming back in distance, particularly Sprinters. I’m having a win bet on Lankan Rupee . Can’t believe he’s $14 ‘Powered’. Betting Strategy: 3 Units Win No. 1;
Exacta: 1, 4 / 5 - 3 Units; Quinella: 1, 4, 5 - 4 Units

Caulfield Race 5 – Ladbrokes Classic

This is an interesting encounter. Most of these are on the Derby trail I think. To that end, No. 3 Throssell has apparently been backed significantly in the Derby – so I can certainly entertain a wager on it at the $14 Enhanced with Ladbrokes – 1 x 3 Units .

Seaburge was good for us last week – the extra 2 furlongs on the 7 day back up? Query for mine but concede a winning hope. As is Good Standing. The Godolphin runner Kent , No. 8, did a lot wrong last start but finished that race very strong – in fact was the fastest last 200m of any runner in that race at Flemington. Happy to have a Place Ticket on him at the Price too. Backing 3 & 8 .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 14

Caulfield Race 7 – Tristarc Stakes

Tycoon Tara has been amazing since moving North to be trained by the Snowdens. She’s into this race up to her ears – Place certainty IMHO . I’ve always been a Jessy Belle fan & she can run a bit of a race dropping 2 kgs from her previous run at The Valley (but again, I don’t like them coming back in distance), that said, 1400m is her best distance & she’s never been out of a Place from 3 starts Track & Distance. Hayes camp is flying & the ‘Price is Right’ (bit of Larry Emda humour there for ya). But the Sydney Fillies are better, aren’t they? Backing No. 1 First Seal 2 x 4 & a Place bet on Jessy .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 11

Other Races?
Caulfield Race 1 – I think No. 14 Petition might run a nice race for the Freedman’s.

Melbourne Quaddie for 15%

1, 2, 6, 11 / 3, 4, 11, 12 / 1, 2, 5 / 1, 2, 9, 11, 12, 15

Sorry for the length of this Preview :oops:
Enjoy the Day Lads - I know I will :D

Yeah, I've been watching it from the start - 'RaceTrack Ralphy' was very good (he was before 'Gator') in that role.
Richo's a little tedious IMHO ... I rate 'Hutchy', I think he's quite astute.

I used to subscribe to Ralphy's App - he had some good information & his partner Vince Sacardi is a 'Times Man', same as 'Gator'.

I must say, I do wonder though at times - if they are getting 'kick backs' from the Bookies to lead Punters astray.
I like to listen to what they say, but still make up my own mind.

22/ 10/ 16

W.S. Cox Plate Day this week & the ‘match race’ everybody has been waiting for. If Winx can win it again, she will be considered in the same breath as the great Mares Sunline & Makybe Diva. Goldophin are starting to dominate racing across the country, as they have in Europe for years – can they knock her off her ‘perch’? What about the forgotten runner Black Heart Bart? There’s been talk regarding Vadamos & then there’s the ‘old timer’ Happy Trails, running in his 5th Cox Plate!
All of this & we won’t know how the track holds up after 16 races & the expected rain.

Not sure about you guys but I always seem to struggle on the punt when they race at Mooney Valley. Got some money in the kick after a really enjoyable day at Caulfield last Saturday, but back without the aid of the Bookies this week, having to rely on the 3 x Corporates. BTW, I always go to Morphettville for Derby Day each year, so if anyone else is going – catch up for a drink?

So to the Races; I am writing this before the Night Meeting, because I have to work late tonight & I also haven’t watched ‘Get On’ yet because I was late home last night as well.

Mooney Valley Race 9 – WS Cox Plate

Who leads? Hartnell & Black Heart Bart, probably - with the Filly tucking in behind them. She’s got a huge advantage in the weights with 47.5 kgs but I just feel she doesn’t have the ‘Class’ of some of these. With the predicted rain I give Lucia Valentina a chance – certainly worth a PLACE ticket. She’ll be giving the leaders a start & not sure she can ‘real them in’. Winx - it goes without saying, she’s the one to beat.

I’m backing the other Godolphin runner, the Epsom winner Hauraki at the price – 1 x 4 units . I know Winx beat him easily in the George Main but he ran 2nd in the Doomben Cup during the Winter with similar weight & a wet track will suit him. The big plus is he’s got Dunn in the seat in the race & he’s currently the best Victorian Rider IMHO. Not only that, but he did me well on the Godolphin runner Peacock last week at $20, so I want to stick with him at a similar price.

Backing Hauraki 1 x 4 & Lucia Valentina the Place for 5 Units

Trifecta: 2, 3, 4, / 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 / Field (35%) = $50.40


Mooney Valley Race 7 – The Crystal Mile

The market suggests it’s a very wide open race & MHO any of these could be made a case for winning. The United States may well be being set for either of the Group 1’s on Emirates Stakes Day (The Emirates over 1600m or the Mckinnon over 2000m) at Flemington – so is he 1 run short here? Perhaps, but he’s too short for mine anyway to want to back him in this race.

No Bet for me in this race – just no value IMHO. Only punting via the Quaddie.

Mooney Valley Race 8 – Mooney Valley Cup

A number of these are nominated for the Melbourne Cup & based on the order of entry;
1, 2, 3, 4 have already qualified for The Cup – so they don’t need to win but you would think their Trainers would want them to run well.
Authoritarian (No. 5) is not nominated for the Cup.
Pentathlon is on the ‘cusp’ of entry (27th but 2 ahead of him, Scottish & Howard Be Thy Name are unlikely starters), so he will need to win to go ahead of Secret Number & get in – so he needs to be watched. 6, 9, & 10 all need to win this race or ‘back up’ next week in the Lexus/Saab 2500m race to get in the field.

Master Zephyr has great stats @ the Track & Distance. He needs this to get into the Cup Field but I have a ‘gut feeling’ he’s been set specifically for THIS race – so at the Boosted Odds on Ladbrokes of $15, he’ll do me 1 x 3 Units .

Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9

Mooney Valley Race 10 – The Vase

Clearly, the Sydney 3 yr olds are better (once again) this year, aren’t they?
Prized Icon could nearly be running in the ‘Big One’ over the same distance, so he’s the ‘Class’ in the race & his wet form is OK. If I can get EVENS the PLACE – he’s a good bet IMHO as I think he runs in the first 3. Conceding chances to the Fillies 10 & 11 - 10 ran a cracking race for 3rd last start. That said, I’ve backed No. 6 So Si Bon – finished hard in the Guineas 2 weeks ago, he should ‘eat’ the extra 2 furlongs this Saturday & he’s run 2nd as a 2yr old in Soft Going. Took the $8 Powered on Sportsbet – 2 x 5 Units

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11

Of the other races on the card:

Race 3 – the Fillies Sprint Race:
Zamzam is way over the PLACE Odds at $13.60 on Ladbrokes. I know she hasn’t been racing to well but that price seems somewhat ridiculous considering she’s won 2 of 4 here – happy to have a small PLACE bet on her. I will also back No. 8 Getna 1 x 4 as I think she’s ready to win & the $18 Boosted & $5 Place are too nice.

Quaddie Numbers: 1, 2, 5, 7 / 1, 3, 4, 6 / 3, 4, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11

Enjoy the Day Lads. :D
The Cox Plate should be a ‘ripper’ – looking forward to watching the race.
Lets hope we can find some winners.
If you want to meet up at Morphettville for a drink next Saturday, let me know. 8)

Another example of the disgrace our Competition has become:

Port can poach the 2016 Leading Goal Kicker from South Adelaide - put him on their AFL 'Rookie List'.
Great for the player, but how shite for South!
He will be playing AGAINST them in the SANFL FFS!
So wrong.

I think they'll scratch The United States this week & run him next week.
So I've backed Stratum Star @ the Powered Odds of $41 - 1 x 4 Units.
Yes, there'll be a deduction but I reckon that will be compensated for - so you could do worse than that Corona

29/10/2016 – Flemington Carnival: Victoria Derby Day

The BEST race day of the year IMHO – unfortunately, I am yet to get to Flemington for the Saturday Meeting (have been to a Cup Day), so that’s on the ‘bucket list’ of things to do & hopefully in the not too distant future. Plenty of great racing, some interesting results & computations for some winners & losers, this week. The debate over moving the McKinnon Stakes to next week means less acceptors remain in the Cup field for Tuesday, than is normally the case each year. The Derby itself has very interesting ‘Form Lines’ – either those that ran last week at The Valley, or those that ran the week prior in the Norman Robinson on Caulfield Cup Day. Big field, too.
Last week was somewhat disappointing in terms of results for me, but we keep ‘plugging away’…

Flemington Race 7 – Victoria Derby

All the talk has been Sacred Elixir after the win last week – which was pretty impressive, I’ll admit. The one I backed in the race, So Si Bon , was a little unlucky I thought – but that said, should’ve probably finished closer to the winner. FWIW, I think he’ll enjoy the Flemington straight far more than the short 250m Mooney Valley version. Should run the added trip & interestingly, Bowman takes the ride (2 previous rides have been on the Waller runner, Wine Bush). I took the Odds Boosted $13 on Ladbrokes , 1 x 3 Units.
The only query for me is the fact he ran last week – but considering that the favourite too ran in that race, I’m happy to risk it.

Of the others – I think Kent couldn’t have run a worse race in the Norman Robinson, so look for improvement from him at massive odds – worth a PLACE ticket at least. And the one I want to ‘save’ on is the Hawkes Team runner; No. 3 Swear . It is interesting that his last start was in Sydney where he ran well. He has the credentials to run the trip (even though he hasn’t won over further than the 7 furlongs) – he could be the ‘fresh horse’, so I’m backing him on the day; 2 x 3 Units .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 13

Flemington Race 4 – The Lexus Stakes

Very intriguing race – not least of all, for who ends up in the Cup on Tuesday.
I’m putting it out there; I did warn you all about Pentathlon being a big watch last week – spewing I didn’t have a PLACE ticket on him at $9.50!!!

So, using similar logic as last week, I’m going to tip (& back for a PLACE ) No. 10 Rose of Virginia in this race. She’s a real ‘Stayer’ & will get the cosiest of runs from the gate. I firmly believe she’s over the odds at $16 the PLACE – 2 Units PLACE
Bet & she’ll give us a ‘look’ at some point (fingers crossed).

In terms of a serious bet in the race – you couldn’t help but like the way Oceanographer ran home for 3rd in the Geelong Cup.
Considering he has to win the race to get in the Cup on Tuesday, he must come into calculations – some Punter had $8K on him to win the Cup @ $26 on Thursday. That’s a big risk IMHO considering he’ll have to run 3 times in 13 days if he runs in the Cup on Tuesday!
He’s too short for me in this race anyway, for me to back him – but I did like his run at Geelong.
Tom Melbourne leads & should set a reasonable pace in the race with the Waterhouse runner Hippopus right there too. The 10 should be on the fence, 2 back. I like De Little Engine at the Powered Price of $9 the win & if I can get $2.60 the Place I would be happy, 2 x 5 Units

Trifecta: 2, 7, 8 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 / Field (30%) = $54


Flemington Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes

What a race! Really looking forward to this – so many can win! Just look at the ‘Honour Role’ for this race over the years: Zoustar, Star Witness, Weekend Hussler, Sepoy, Alinghi, Encosta De Lago, Our Maiscay, Tierce, Kapstad, Rose of Kingston – impressive list.
This year’s edition looks very competitive - although the scratching today of Capitalist is disappointing.

Mick Price has been very ‘bullish’ in the Press, suggesting Extreme Choice will win comfortably. He tends to ‘tell it like it is’ when he talks to the Press, so you have to take that on board as a Punter. Godolphin reckon Astern is the BEST Sprinter in their yard & Star Turn has been killing his opposition comfortably this campaign. Throw in the Slipper winner Capitalist, the Blue Diamond winner Flying Artie & the unbeaten Russian Revolution & this is a ‘cracking’ race! The Flemington ‘Straight Six’ races are often tricky affairs to navigate. The smallish field doesn’t make it any easier to predict how they will run either.

Do they run down the middle of the track as a pack?
Do they split – some to the inside, others to the outside? Who leads? Who gets a ‘sit’?
All relevant & important questions to consider when tackling the race from a betting perspective.
I had backed Capitalist at the Enhanced Odds of $13 on Ladbrokes – but now he’s been scratched, I need to reconsider.

I think they’ll all come down the middle of the track, initially at least. I reckon Astern gets a bit of cover behind the leaders & should make his move about the 250m, & might just overhaul them in the last 50m of the race. If it pans out how I think, I predict they will over run Russian Revolution & he’ll miss the Place. Great Race – highlight of the Day, even without Capitalist in the field. I’m going with the Sydney Form over the Melbourne Form, so Astern to WIN for me, 4 Units . Also taking an E xacta: 3, 5/ 2 for 3 Units & a Quinella: 2, 3, 5 for 3 Units .

Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7


Flemington Race 6 – The Myer Classic

Another fantastic race! First Seal won for us last start at Caulfield in the Tristarc, but that was over 1400m – I think that’s her distance, not the Mile, so I will risk her here. The Value in the race is No. 11 Denmagic at the 20/1 quote – she’ll love Flemington IMO & the extra 2 Furlongs is no problem for her. At the Price, I’m willing to have a gamble on her 1 x 5 Units . The PLACE Price is extra ‘juicy’ as I think she gets a nice run from the gate & if Berry can get her out with 300m to go, she may well run down the centre of the track & knock them all out.

Corona: I know I gave you one earlier in the week in Stratum Star (& I stand by that) but THIS one might well be the PLACE Bet of the Day. $8.50 on UBet Thursday Night – I took that, thank you very much!

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 7, 10, 11, 14

Other Races:

MR 3 – Like No. 12 Chloe in Paris Eachway, perhaps 1 x 4 Units

MR 8 – I’ve already backed one of my fav. Horses S tratum Star at $41 Boosted – 1 x 4 Units on him too. I remain surprised that The United States is running here – I had him ‘pegged’ for next week’s Group 1s.

Quaddie Numbers:
4, 7, 10, 11 / 1, 3, 10, 13 / 1, 2, 3. 7, 9, 16 / 6, 7, 8, 9 for 17% = $ 64.28

So looking forward to the day tomorrow.
Getting home tonight to clean up the Garden, so I can get to Morphettville early & ‘stake my claim’ in the Betting Area. If you are going, come & have a beer. Enjoy the day lads – hopefully we get some money for Cup Day.
Will do a summary of the Cup on Monday Night for you - once I do the Form seriously.

The Cup looks ordinary for mine.
I was gonna try and get the arvo off, but I'm not so fussed now

I don't disagree with the sentiments, but...
I think that gives Us (the Punters) an 'in'.
Firmly believe Godolphin hold the key to the race - they want to win it, badly.

I've had a quick look, after the Barrier Draw. Early bet on No. 21 Secret Number - $51 Boosted on Ladbrokes & $11 Place UBET.
I think its weighted to win the race - ran 2nd as Favorite in the Queen Elizabeth 12 months ago, carrying 58kgs, & drops to 52kgs here.

Big ask for Oceanographer to win (even run in top 5) having his 3rd run in 13 days, having already run over 2400m & 2500m, then back up on Tuesday with another 3200m - very worthy winner if he can win!

More to come over the next couple of days, Boys.

P.S. Where's MY Coronas, Corona? :partyman: :drinkers:

1/ 11/ 2016 – Melbourne Cup Day

Can you believe its Cup Day again? Seems to come around faster every year. Another Melbourne Cup Field dominated by overseas runners – some of which, yet again, haven’t had a run here before the Cup run. I know I ‘bang on’ about it a bit, but when will Racing Victoria change the rules to make them run at least once before a big race here? Its so unfair on the Punter! Rant over.
Now to the preview; I will leave the Cup Preview to last because that has so many ‘variables’ to consider.

Flemington Race 9 – Security Sprint 1200m

It was interesting that the ‘fast lane’ on Saturday was the outside. Will this continue on Tuesday? Not so sure about that – I’m thinking by the time this race is run, they may well be coming down the centre & the inside. Big field means big prices, generally, & early markets suggest 4/1 the Field.

Can entertain a number of these as winning chances, but I’ve settled on No. 16 Flippant .
The Snowdens have the favourite in the race, Ravi, but I think Flippant will get a better run, just off the speed, sitting in behind Faatinah & Tried & Tired. At the $20 Boosted, I took it Sunday, 1 x 4 Units . She was well backed 1st Up & didn’t have much luck. She’s run well against Mahuta, too. So at the price I’m happy to gamble on her. I concede winning chances to 2 back-markers in No 4 Illustrious Lad (Trainer/Jockey combination going well) & if the outside is still the place to be, then No 14 Well Sprung can run well too.

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 9, 14, 16

Flemington Race 2 – TAB Trophy 1700m

Could manage to start the day off well here with a nice Eachway chance in No 6 Amarela .
Like Blackiston as a trainer of middle distance horses, particularly Mares. She likes to go back in her races, so she’s likely to be giving the leaders a start here, but from the nice gate, she’ll get a nice cozy run. I can see Walker getting her out about the 350m mark, & if she can sustain a long run, I think she can run over the top of these. I think the weight is against the 2 Hayes runners, & apart from No 7 Eqypt , the depth is thin in this race IMHO - she’s been racing against better quality horses than what’s in this field, & Amarela at the Double figure quote, she’ll do me: 2 x 5 Units .

Box Trifecta: 3, 6, 7, 8, 12

And so, to the Cup… Flemington Race 7 – The Melbourne Cup

I’ve given this year’s Cup consideration for a couple of weeks now. Once again, it’s a VERY difficult task to try & find the winner. With the ‘exotics’ available on the race, this might be the way to go – although finding value in these types of bets can be a difficult task.

I have decided to approach the race a little differently this year. For a number of years, I’ve been applying a ‘formula’ based System to the Trifecta – Winning 20% of the Dividend in 2009, when Shocking beat Crime Scene (I also backed Crime Scene @ $15 the Place that year), but that hasn’t worked since & I think its because of the huge increase in Overseas Runners, now. So, I'm changing it up slightly.

Interestingly, the 2016 Version of the race has no less than 8 runners that ran in the race last year (No. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11, 15) – that’s a 1/3 of the Field!!!
No. 1, 8, 11, 12, 13, 17, 18, 20, 21, 23 are all last start Winners.
No. 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 have ALL Won at 2400m+,
with 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 22, 23 all having won at 3200m +

The Cup is more often than not, won by 4, 5, 6 or 7 year olds – Of this year’s field, only No 3 & No 14 are not in this category – No 12 Jameka is the only 4 yr old, of which 42 winners of the Cup have been 4 yr olds.
Only 2 x 8 yr olds, have won the Cup, 5 yr olds (44) & 6 yr olds (30).
Only 10 x 7 yr olds have won (the last 3 being Makybe Diva ’05, Rogan Josh ’99, Vintage Crop ’93). 4 of the last 6 winners have been 6 yr olds.

5 yr olds: No. 4, 5, 19, 20, 22
6 yr olds: No. 1, 6, 10, 18
There are 9 x 7 yr olds in this year’s field!

Barriers don’t really come into it – but that said, Barrier 18 has NEVER won .
If number of starts count for anything, then those with less than 20 career starts are: No 1, 4, 5, 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21.
The only horses to win at the Track are: No. 6, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17, 20.
No. 3, 5, 8, 13, 16, 19, 23 having never run at ‘Headquarters’.

Only 5 x 4 yr old Mares have won the Cup , with Light Fingers carrying the most weight (52.5 kgs) – 2 kgs LESS than Jameka has to ‘lug’ on Tuesday. History says she will find it hard to win the race!

In the end, does any of the information mentioned mean anything to the 2016 running of ‘The Great Race’???
Perhaps…
Here are some things that I have considered important in isolating a possible winner:
Must be $21 or less in the Market – non-negotiable

1. Must draw a barrier no worse than 16 (Award 3 pts)
2. Must’ve run in Top 5 in last 3 x starts (Award 5 pts)
3. Must be 4, 5 or 6 yr old (Award 4 points)
4. Must carry NO MORE than 55.5kgs (Award 3 points)
5. Must’ve won over at least 2400m (Award 5 points)
6. Must’ve run at track at least once (Award 3 points)

So, what does that mean?

1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23 are all $21 or less on Sunday

1. 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 20, 23
2. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 13, 17, 23
3. 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 20
4. 12, 13, 17, 20, 23
5. 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23
6. 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 17, 20

No 1: (20); No. 4: (20); No 5 (17); No. 6 (20); No. 12 (23); No. 13(11); No. 17 (16);
No. 20 (18); No. 23 (16). Order: 12, 1-4-6, 20, 23, 5, 17, 13 - due to the questions over Jameka (weight & distance) – I’m risking her to win.

Trifecta for 20%: 1, 4, 6 / 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13, 17, 20, 23 / Field = $105.60

Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 5, 8, 13, 21

Win/Place: No. 17 Almandin
Roughie: No 21. Secret Number

There you go Lads – sorry about the length of the Preview, but as always there’s a lot to consider. Fingers Crossed.

Yep, top weight is well suited.
Thought Maher didn't want to be there & wasn't prepared to say anything about other runners - pointless panelist IMHO.
Gator must've lost plenty - 'Get On' should be on tonight, I think.
Hutchy has the better 'strike rate' - he tipped Almandin on Thursday. Glad I took the $17 yesterday, has shortened significantly today, Fixed Odds.

Am wondering how much rain will fall - heard differing reports.
Track drains well but anything Soft 7 or Heavy 8 (unlikely, I know) brings Our Ivanhow into calculations.
Still happy with my Roughie - the more I look at it.

I am a Jameka fan, but I am concerned about the weight. That said, if she gets out to double figures - I'm backing her Each way.

3/ 11/ 2016

So here we go again, no sooner does Cup Day end (of which I had a pretty good one, I don’t mind saying – Flippant winning for us was superb, having seen the Replay of the race, it won like a good thing!) & what a good Cup it was this year.

‘Hutchy’ on Get On is fast becoming the star tipster to follow – wouldn’t surprise me if they ‘move him on’ (like they did ‘Racetrack Ralphy’) for being too successful. After all, the Bookies run the Channel & the Show. Pays to make hay whilst the sun shines & follow him.

So to Oaks Day: Only betting on the one race on Thursday – he says, knowing full well that he’s more likely than not to bet on other races :roll:

But with all good intentions, here’s my Preview of the race:

Flemington Race 8 – The VRC Oaks

Have a look at the field Lads – THE best named Filly in the race is the bottom one “ Penthouse Kitten ”, out of Pentire by Scattercat…
I love witty owners!!! Gold!

The obvious is Yankee Rose – all things being equal, she wins.
But as you know by now, I can’t take those short odds, particularly over the 2500m. So I’m looking elsewhere. When the price is so short in these Group 1 distance races, I am reminded of the ‘unbeatable’ Whobegotyou getting rolled by a 100/1 shot a few years ago in the Derby.

On the Cox Plate run, you have to say she’s the ‘one’, but an extra 500m & 8kgs adds SOME doubt IMHO.
The weather forecast is fine, so we can assume a Good 4 again.

The form lines of those in the field with a winning hope, says they either ran on Saturday in the Wakeful &/or the Ethereal on Caulfield Cup Day – the one that didn’t run Saturday is the Hayes runner Harlow Gold, she ran in the Vase on Cox Plate Day against Boys.

The winner will come from No.s 1 to 9 (big statement, I know) :roll:
I believe Barriers play a big role in this race (& the Derby) because of the short run to the Winning Post at Flemington – the Speed Map suggests that Harlow Gold & Bella Sorellastra get the runs of the race on the fence, midfield, so both must be considered for Exotics at least.

No. 4 goes back to the tail of the field No. 9 pushes forward, 1, 3 & 6 have a choice to make – whether to push forward or go back. I think 1 & 6 push forward, which might mean they are a bit wide going around the 1st bend, meaning they will use up some ‘petrol’ early, whist I reckon Sebring Dream goes back.

The Kiwi Filly No 5 Elenora should lead early but I reckon Ollie will steady her up & give up the lead heading into the back straight.
I can see her sitting 3rd on the fence at the 1400m. She’s a winning hope IMHO & she could well look the winner at some point in the straight.
I want something on her – boosted Odds of $12. I also want to back Sebring Dream in the race - I can see her ‘peeling’ out around the 300m & following Yankee Rose into the straight. I would want $2.70 the PLACE to back her. Backing Elenora 2 x 5 Units . Exacta: 3, 5 / 1 for 3 Units.

Trifecta: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8

Looking forward to Saturday too, now.
I will be at the Cross Country of the 3-Day Event this week (no doubt keeping an ear on the Races from Flemington at the same time 8) )
Hopefully, there's no bloody loser Protesters!

I'm seriously contemplating giving it all up.

Pretty much all of my analysis turns out incorrect. I just cannot read this at all and it's driving me nutz.

Mate, its a tough game.
Roller Coaster Ride, really.

1. Keep Records of ALL Outlays & Collects - I have a Spreadsheet with 10 years of records. Down 4% over the Journey.
2. Value, Value, Value - that way when you get one it makes up for the 'outs'.
3. Don't over capitalize - bet within your limits, stick to your 'bank' %. A good rule of thumb is 10%.
4. Stay positive, we ALL have losing runs - anyone who says they don't are lying.

I look at it like this: If I still smoked (8 yrs given up), I would be spending probably $160 - $200 per week.
That's $10k per year. If I 1/2 that, $5K is my bank. I only bet 22 Weeks per year, basically Autumn & Spring Carnival.

Most of all, Enjoy it!

5/ 11/ 2016

The Final Day of the VRC Carnival – Stakes Day (well, McKinnon Stakes, as previously its been a Mile race, now a Mile & a 1/4). Confused as to why they didn’t keep the 1600m race as the ‘Emirates Stakes’ & keep the 2000m race as the McKinnon. Could’ve finished the Carnival running both 2 x Group 1s, instead of 1.

What a race that Oaks was!
In a ‘round about way, I sought of pre-empted it with the Whobegotyou analogy – wish I’d acted on it! Was happy with Elenora’s run, she did all the chasing & to finish 3rd was a good run.

Anyway, to the Preview, the final one for the Spring – “Hazar” I hear you all cheer!
Its been a reasonable Spring, hopefully we can finish off with a couple of value winners this week.

Flemington Race 7 – The Emirates (McKinnon)

Scottish’s run in the Caulfield Cup was really good (what a Spring Kerrin McEvoy has had – he appears to be riding better than ever having been replaced by McDonald at Darley/Goldophin). He gets off to ride The United States , which runs for the 3rd week on the trot. He’s suited at WFA but I am prepared to risk him in this race – particularly at the short quote. Besides, no one wants to see Lloyd Williams win another one, do they?

The way Shane Dye was ‘banging on’ Thursday, about the track bias & the inside being the ‘fast lane’ – one would assume the Rail might be moved out (in the straight at least).

Palentino loves racing here, although I thought he was disappointing last week so not sure about him – think he’s under the odds here (based on that run last week). Vanburgh ran really well beating a good one last start in Tom Melbourne (who ran a bold race to just go down in the Lexus) but that wasn’t at WFA - & his stats are much better in Handicap races – prepared to concede a PLACE chance in the race but don’t think he can win. That said, 3 yr olds always have an advantage in WFA races & I want to back Good Standing 1 x 5 Units . Just think this year’s Norman Robinson is one ‘out of the box’ – if you saw the finish of the Derby, Inference’s 3rd & the winner, suggest that’s good form.

Generally, I don’t like them coming back in distance, but with the huge 6kg weight drop, he might be able to get away with leading all the way & will give them something to chase. He’ll do me, took the Boosted $15 with Ladbrokes & the $3.80 the Place . Waiting for $4.00 the PLACE if I can get it, as I’ll load more on.

Box Trifecta: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 12

Flemington Race 6 – The Matriarch

Real Love ’s run in the Caulfield Cup was full of merit considering the way the race was run & TBH, I expected her to run better in the Lexus last Saturday – disappointing IMHO. Can she back up this week? I’m prepared to risk her but concede a Place chance & should she get out to $3.80 to $4 the PLACE , then I can entertain a PLACE Bet on her.

Amarela did the right thing getting up for 3rd on Tuesday, but she peaked on her run when looming into the fray at about the 150m mark, just hanging on for the place. Dunn in the seat will help, but I am prepared to risk her in this race.

Denmagic was wonderful for us last week, although I think Corona might still be kicking himself not getting the $13 the Place! That run was good but backing up 7 days later & into $6 the win? I can’t have her here, but she will always be a favourite with me after last week!

The one I want to back is No. 16 Happy Hannah - & she’s had support. The gate is a concern, but she’ll go straight to the back of the field & the way she finished off her last race, I can see ‘the Man in Form’ Kerrin McEvoy, bringing her down the outside with a sweeping run.

The Powered Odds (Thursday night) of $15 were juicy & I’ve taken the $4 PLACE on Ladbrokes. I’d be surprised if she doesn’t give a good account of herself & I’m happy to gamble on her, 1 x 5 Units .

Box Trifecta: 1, 6, 9, 10, 12, 16

Flemington Race 8 – The Darley Classic

Lankan Rupee was really unlucky at Caulfield over the 5 furlongs, just couldn’t get out in time when he needed to – although I may be talking through my wallet (having backed him on the Day), he should’ve won that race IMHO. :roll:

He likes the ‘straight six’ & I reckon he’ll be back to his best.
Great 2nd Up record & from the middle of the field in Gate 7, ‘Froggy’ has a number of options where to put him in the run. I’m worried about Malaquerra & The Newmarket winner The Quarterback needs to be respected, but I’m backing Lankan Rupee to do the job. Backing him 7 x 3 Units here – the $2.50 the Place on UBET is way overs IMHO . Quinella: 1, 6, 7 for 5 Units.

Box Trifecta: 1, 3, 6, 7, 11

Flemington Race 4 – The Hilton Stakes

Keen on one at a Price here – No. 8 Crafted . 8)
I know he’s a Maiden but he was beaten by a good one last start & I just reckon he’s been set for a ‘hit & run’ mission here.
Good gate & McEvoy in the seat (as stated – he’s been on fire this Spring) & drops 2 kgs on the Mooney Valley run. Think he’ll be midfield, 1 out with nice cover. If McEvoy can manage to find a gap, or another runner to follow through into the race by the 200m, he might be the one here. Happy to take the Powered Odds of $22 & took the Ladbrokes $5.20 Place as well (nice PLACE price) – 1 x 5 Units .

So there it is Lads, the last Preview until Autumn.

Thanks for indulging me :D – hopefully you’ve managed to back a few of the well priced runners I’ve backed this Spring 8) . Am going to the 3-Day Event Cross-Country tomorrow – actually looking forward to it. Will be watching races on my phone during the day, as well as listening to the Cricket on the Radio.

Enjoy the Day, Lads.
Cheers.

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:FFS, Jessy belle jumped out at me this morning, did well last spring and mares have a habit of performing like that.

Alaskan Rose absolutely no luck at all

Can't catch her! - backed Alaskan Rose late... Grrr

I love the way everyone is an expert on here not knowing 'any' of the particulars at all. And your all perfect angles that have never made a blue.

Yep the lad f**ked up, could've been a lot worse luckily it wasn't. By no means is it acceptable behaviour but there is more to it that I'm not sure that will be made public. Infact I'm almost certain it won't, but Impey isn't in a good place at the moment.

Obtuse, Right or Acute? :roll:

Anyone happy with how Port handled the issue?
Seems to me just another Football Club 'hushing up' or 'diminishing' the Player's responsibility for his actions.
Should Port of hung him in the square instead?

C'mon, this happens all the time, here & over the border.
The Club seeks Legal Advice, a Statement is Drafted & Read in front of the cameras, a pathetic 'punishment' is handed down & everything goes on as normal until the next time a similar incident occurs.

Is it any wonder that the same incidents occur over & over again?
As long as the Clubs continue to diminish responsibility of the individual, these incidents will continue to occur.
They are NOT children. You make Adult choices you should cop Adult consequences.

Happens in AFL & the NRL - every year, consistently.

As for the $5K & Round 1 sanction - Pfft...

Lol
I've read the Facebook sanfl page and it's not exactly brimming with positivity about how fantastic the league is and that crowds are at record levels with clubs just making so much money they don't know how to spend it

Ok I'll end it here
All I'll say is you guys are more doom and gloom than the liberal party out of office
I will let Wedgies work place alone

And calling me names or suffering from
Alziehmers you need to take lessons from a female solicitor that took over an hour yelling at me calling me worse

That's it from me
Carry on with the doom and gloom

Seriously, get over yourself!
The reference is the FACT that you continue to REPEAT YOURSELF - not calling you names at all.
Either: you have the problem of Alzheimers & therefor don't remember saying the SAME thing over & over,
OR: you REALLY want the Forum to close.

Either way, you can't change the reality of the situation: Clubs ARE losing patrons & $$$, the competition now doesn't have a single Radio Station coverage. BTW, did you happen to catch that the AO wants to spend $9 Million on new LED lights in the Stands???
Perhaps 10% of that could be used/redirected to the SANFL to fund Radio Coverage of the 'MOTD' ???

^^^ Shifty C***

^^^ This!

G'Day Lads, hardly been on the site this year - guess I'm almost completely finished with the SANFL now :(

As its that time of year again, wondering if you want me to do Previews of the Spring Race Meetings again this year?
(Um, I'm a bit naughty - got $18 enhanced odds on Humidor last week) I had intended on putting it up on here Friday, but my Lad turned 18 last Friday & I got sidetracked - sorry about that :(

Let me know if you want me to contribute, yeah?

23/09/2017 (Time Posted: 6:35am Friday, 22/09/17)

Not really getting into too much this far out – still few weeks yet until we get into ‘full swing’ but is always nice to get a little in the ‘kick’ if we can, just so we can load up later. Humidor ’s run last week @ Flemington sees him come into Fav for the Caulfield Cup & shorten for the Melbourne Cup. I caught him last week & I suspect the Weir Camp didn’t miss him either, considering the smile on the Trainer’s face after the race! I still think Hartnell is weighted well for the CC & I’m pretty sure Godolphin will avoid facing the ‘Great Mare’ @ The Valley.

I reckon Humidor’s pattern of racing makes Flemington a much brighter prospect than Caulfield, so I can’t have him in CC at the current price.

Almandin ’s run was unbelievable over 2500m, 2nd Up! WOW! He looks well on track to repeat last year’s result but the weight is still an issue over 2 Miles IMHO. But you couldn’t help but love the run last week with 61kgs, amazing!

My son & I are travelling to Europe in Jan, so unfortunately I can’t justify a trip to Melbourne to see Winx go for the 3-peat (or The Boxing Day Test Match, for that matter)
Personally, I rate her better than Black Caviar – I just think WFA Middle Distance horses are better than Sprinters, but I might just be biased in my view.

Anyway, to this week:

SR 7 (Rosehill) – The Golden Rose

Difficult race to access IMHO. I don’t want the favourite, way too short @ Evens, for mine. I always like Snowden runners in 5 to 7 Furlong races, so Pariah has to be a chance – but the gate is a worry. No 9 Dracarys should get a very soft run on the Rail & should sit 2 or 3 back the fence – concede it a PLACE chance @ $4.60 fixed but reckon the Tote on the day will be higher ($5 would be very nice).

I’m backing Waterhouse’s Gold Standard (No. 4), 2 Units by 5. The run in the Stan Fox, on pace, suggests this Colt can sit handy (perhaps 1-1) from Gate 10. I’m relying on him jumping well from Gate 10, but if he does, Berry is a great rider of on-pace runners & you know Gai will have him ‘rock hard fit’. At the $15 Power Play, too juicy not to take – in fact I took it Thursday Night.

Trying a new Trifecta Strategy this Year (apart from the Big Cups).
3 Chosen Horses (who I think can Quinella the race) + Field
(AB/AB/Field; AC/AC/Field; BC/BC/Field)
$12 each for 50% (2 x 1 x 12) Total $36

Trifectas: 2,3/2,3/Field; 2,4/2,4/Field; 3,4/3,4/Field

MR 7 (Caulfield) – The Naturalism

Weir (3) & Hayes (4) runners dominate the Field here, which I hate. A lot like Almandin’s race last week with the amount of Lloyd Williams runners. It makes predicting leaders & ‘position in running’ difficult to assess, particularly in a Stayers race. That said, I can see 1, 6, 7, 11 & 13 going forward. The pace up front will tell a lot in terms of the last 400m coming around the turn. If 6 & 1 go hard up front, that brings the ‘back markers’ into the race. That said, I want to be on a mid-field runner, 1 or 2 horses off the fence.

Big Duke drops 2.5 kgs on his previous run @ The Valley. He ran home well there over the Mile. The extra 2 furlongs suits, as does the longer straight of Caulfield. He’s 3rd up & at the Each way quote of $9 & $3, he’ll do me, 3 x 7 units. Tough Race, lots of variables.
Also, watch the Market (late) on the Mick Kent runner Abbey Marie (10) – stable likes backing their horses when they think they can win. He usually gives an interview too before the race, so if you are watching Racing.com, keep your eyes & ears open ;)

That’s all for this week Lads, but I will finish with the following:
Over the past 6 weeks or so, I have been looking at the results & comparing them to the Tips given from various ‘Pundits’. In Adelaide, Nadia Horne is very successful with her 4 selections per race, particularly with box Trifectas & Pick 4s.

Joel Marshall too, appears to get his 4 selections into the money in Sydney more often than not. We could do worse than to follow their Tips at these Venues over the next few months if ‘Multiples’ are your thing.

Happy Punting!

29 & 30/09/2017 & 01/10/2017 (posted Wednesday Night 9pm)
Massive weekend of Racing & Group 1’s on all 3 days! Felt a bit unlucky not to get the PLACE $$$ last week in the Golden Rose – hands up those who backed the Winner! As for Big Duke, he was a Big Dud!

Friday at The Valley :

MR 7 ‘The Moir’
Huge field, with 9 of 17 First Up. I think there’s a stand out but the Gate is a big concern. I’ve backed Heatherly – her record Track & Distance is superb. Mooney Valley is that type of track where horse who’ve run well there, tend to keep doing so. Her 2 runs back from a spell have been good & the enhanced $17 & $4.40 with Ladbrokes just had to be taken. I’m very worried about Gate 13, as her best pattern of racing is to lead – so she’ll burn some fuel early to get over. That said, there’s a fair bit of speed around her, so she might get a trail behind 5, 7 or 9. Faatinah is an interesting runner & I’m keen to have a small PLACE bet on it @ $9.20 – will get all the favours from the alley & has a great first up record.

Saturday at Randwick :

SR 7 ‘The Epsom’
The ‘Rule of Thumb’ for any big ‘Randwick Mile’ is back Gai’s horses, but very unusually, she doesn’t have a runner! The barriers again, are sure to play a role in the outcome of the race & that makes the fav Happy Clapper a solid chance, but as you know by now I can’t have 2/1 on any horse, even if it is the best horse in the race. If Red Excitement gets a ‘cosier’ time up front this week, then he’s sure to be in it for a long way. I do like Foxplay @ the price, but the barrier is of concern in terms of winning the race. It appears to me that Tom Melbourne has improved moving away from the Freedmans to the Waller Yard. He seems to have changed him from a distance horse to a middle-distance horse, so I can see him being right in the finish here. His last 2 runs @ the 7 Furlongs have been full of merit, & if we could get $8 plus, I’d like him to win the race . Interesting race.

Trifecta Bets : 1,5/1,5/Field; 1,9/1,9/Field; 5,9/5,9/Field (2 x 2 x 11)

SR 8 ‘The Metropolitan’
Don’t like the race, personally. Will be watching to see if I backed Big Duke a week too early. If I had to have a bet, maybe Foundry but I can’t see too many of this field going on to challenge for the big Cups in a month’s time. Apart from perhaps Libran , these are 2nd string stayers in my view. Leave me out.

Sunday at Caulfield

MR 7 ‘The Underwood’
Hard to go past the top 2 here again. Was happy to be on Humidor the last time these 2 clashed @ Flemington (ran 2nd & 3rd). They will be much harder to run down @ Caulfield, with the shorter straight. Obviously, they are the 2 to beat. Happy to have a small wager on Abbey Marie , on the 7-day back up. The $36 Power-play is worth a few Units & $4.40 the Place (in a 9 horse field) is entertaining as well. I think Hartnell will win & he’s my pick at this stage for the Caulfield Cup. Maybe a couple of Exactas & Quinellas with BHB, Hartnell & Abbs .

MR 8 ‘Rupert Clarke’
Backing Grande Rosso here. In really good form, Corey Brown to ride & he drops 4kgs on his first up 3rd in the Aurie’s Star. 7 Furlong specialist & 2 from 2 @ the track – he’ll do me. Concede winning chances to 1, 3 & 4 but happy with the Powered $18 & the $4.60 the Place is a GIFT in my view. Loaded up on him 4 units x 11units , in fact, my bet of the weekend is Grande Rosso the PLACE, that $4.60 is too tempting.

Trifectas : 1,4/1,4/Field; 1,5/1,5/Field; 4,5/4,5/Field

Lets hope for a collect or two this week 8)
Good Luck Lads!

FWIW, I did drop that 'part of my life that meant so much' & there has been a hole in my heart since. I miss the weekly ritual with my Lad. I miss the friends we shared a decade with all over the City, at Suburban Grounds. I miss Grand Final Day (in October) starting @ 8am, regardless of who was playing. I miss the SANFL as a genuine alternative to the 2 'Corporate Monsters'. Unfortunately, I just can't bring myself to return to WWT. Does that make me fickle? I don't think so. Bitter? Probably, Yes. Fickle? No. My Lad turned 18 a couple of weeks ago. He wants to return next season; "We could go to a few games, Dad, hang out, like the old days except now I too can drink"... Whilst it sounds inviting, I just can't bring myself to do it whilst the Cows & PAPs remain in the Competition. Cutting off my nose, to spite my face? Perhaps, but there is still a place in the World for 'Principle', isn't there?

FWIW, I thought Richmond made them look slow. Cows played their worst game for the year. Walker did his usual 'go missing' when its there to be won. Can't say I'm disappointed with the result - suggest that the 'Karma Bus' just smashed into the Bandwagon. Shout out to Rob Chapman...

Must say I'm 'feeling the love' a bit here Lads :D Food for thought, at least.
The Boy & I are going to Europe in Jan & Feb on a 'Football Odyssey ' (England, Scotland, Belgium, Holland, Italy), so renewing my 'passion' for 'Hooliganism' (my non-violent, verbal kind) will happen then. Perhaps that will result in a renewal of my want to return to the SANFL, who knows?
Perhaps wearing my Fulham Colours might be a 'compromise' I can make? As I said, I really do miss it - its a void I have been unable to fill through AUFC, SAJC or even that forlorn attempt at following SAFC for a season. I guess the 'door is ajar', for now 8) If I did return, it would probably result in greater contributions back on here :roll:

FFS you lot, why deprive yourself of enjoyment. We all do stuff in our life that we don't necessarily agree with whether it be for loved ones, employment or whatever. I don't like the path PAFC took by giving up a rich, historic talent zone to the Eagles to keep their AFL players together but I will never stop supporting them for the sheer fact I am a football fan and they are my club.

There are far bigger and real problems in this state, country and world than a potential 38 listed AFL players playing in any given week of the SANFL, to deprive your family and friends of your company at a social gathering like football is selfish IMO and will be looked back on with regret

WOW... advice from someone who has NEVER had to deal with losing anything. The Magpies were on the brink of extinction in 2010/11 - an absolute 'basket case' with their hands out for $$$ from future AFL dividends, which the SANFL duly paid. Then (thanks to Sanderson, Chapman & Trigg) they get an automatic boost (of which Summerton bemoaned initially) by making 'The One Club' BS & parachuting 20 of 21 AFL listed Players into the 'Magpies' for 2014 & low & behold, they make the GF v Norwood, only to be beaten by a kick (& again 3 years later) this time by Sturt.

If that's not enough, due to the Drafting of the 2016 SANFL Leading Goal Kicker from a rival Club in South Adelaide, they get the BEST Forward in the League for no cost! And you have the audacity to mention Zones as an issue FFS! You don't need Zones when you can steal players who you have no intention of playing consistently in the AFL side. This is NOT about anything other than the fact that MY Club (like 5 other Clubs) voted Yes, without putting it to the Members for a vote. This very issue was raised as 1 of the many concerns we had. Integrity? Compromise? Fairness?

therisingblues wrote:

LPH wrote:Came over from FootySA ... I'll admit that I was a bit of a troll in the early years, particularly toward Sturt Fans. I like to think I have mellowed significantly since then

Yeah, well **** you! I am still pissed off!

Ha... "The Big Blue Bus"

Two very different perspectives of LOSS here. Footy has been in my life for nearly 40 years it has caused pain and joy but at the end of the day its only a game. You seem a passionate person with strong ideals but perhaps it's time to fully get off the fence it has been 4 years and I can't see it changing anytime soon, the AFL won't be backing a Reserves comp with the development of the AFLW so if you're already boycotting games due to your club's vote why torment yourself in here or by watching/listening to media content.

Yes PAFC has been on it's knees and received handouts, proud organizations do whatever it takes to survive much like the Eagles merger. As for Port recruiting players with no intention of playing them for the purpose of strengthening the Magpies, what utter BS. As I have said on here before it's the same group of people telling me that the Power recruit, or in your words steal, to strengthen the Magpies for premiership success then they tell me that they're only there for development and don't care about winning.

Mate I am not here to argue with a fellow SANFL follower of 40 odd years. I apologise if I came off a little terse. :oops:
I actually wanted the real Magpies to stay in the Competition, as The Magpies, not the Power Reserves. Port got a 'free-kick' with Eddy, no-one can deny that - he only played 2 games for the AFL side. It is completely unfair that South had him ripped from them, then playing against them. For the Lad, its the best thing to be on an AFL list, that is undeniable. But the fact remains that the 'Magpies' had to do ZERO to get him & as a result, have a ready made, proven Goal Kicker.

You say "... sitting on the fence", how have I sat on the fence? :shock:
I have been on one side of this debate from long before it gained 'traction' & became a reality. I was protesting the onset of this abomination in 2012, when it was initially mooted. Maybe its because my Club (West Torrens) was so shite growing up, & my Family's long history in the SANFL that I am a fan of the Competition before any Club. Perhaps that is the issue for me, who knows?
What I do know is the behaviour of WWTFC Board in refusing to seek a Member Vote before making their 'Yes' vote in support of the AFL Reserves was both disrespectful & out of touch. THIS above all else is the reason for my 'stay away', that, & Kurt Slaven's arrogant words to me; "You'll be back". This statement alone suggests that his view is that Football Supporters are to be treated 'with a grain of salt', this after 22 years of begging for Membership $$$ particularly after the heart-break of the 1990 Merger. If this is "... sitting on the fence", then 'Guilty as Charged, Your Honour'...

07/10/2017 (Time Posted: 7:00pm Wednesday, 04/10/17)

Not too bad last week – the Trifecta in Tom Melbourne’s race was handy, although it would’ve paid much better if he’d won, but the $200+ is good enough. He seems to manage to get into ‘traffic trouble’ more often than not & this contributes to his status as a ‘Non-Winner’, don’t you think?
Let’s gloss over Grande Rosso, embarrassing but perhaps not suited by the fast pace of the Rupert Clarke? 8)

So to ‘Headquarters’ in both cities this week, with Winx going to ‘Mexico’ for a lead up run anti-clockwise, before her attempt @ immortality.

Flemington - MR 5 Turnbull Stakes

This is not a WFA Race but a Handicap. She’s well weighted for mine @ 1 kg below WFA but $1.15???
Think she wins because she’s the ‘class’ in the race but Humidor will be stalking her down the straight. He is so suited to Flemington but he carries WFA & she doesn’t, on that alone you have to say she wins. Suggest we just sit back & marvel. No bet for me.

Flemington - MR 7 The Bart Cummings

You couldn’t but be impressed with Almandin ’s previous win over the same distance @ the same track, 2 weeks ago – he was awesome.
To be fair, he had all the favours with a strong pace up front but he blew them away over the last Furlong & a half. The stable mate Crocodile Rock ran well to run 2nd but he was a long way behind – I can see him running in the ‘Lexus’ (or whatever that’s called this year) on Derby Day & probably gets a run in the Melbourne Cup too if he runs well here & in that race.

Tally is an interesting runner here. It gets a start in the Caulfield Cup because the Mornington Cup winner is exempt from the ballot – so this is clearly a lead up run for that race, being 2 weeks out. For this reason, I can entertain a PLACE ticket on it, as I can see him winding up over the last 2 furlongs, down the outside.

The value in the race is Yogi , IMHO. If you take a line through the JRA Trophy run (won by Almandin ), then the differential in price between Croc Rock & Yogi is too large. The $26 Power Play is nice & the $4.40 the Place is a better bet than Croc Rock. Yendall has been riding well recently, so happy to have a ‘throw at the stumps’ but Almandin is the one to beat, obviously. Bets: Yogi: 2 Units by 5 ; Tally 3 Units Place

Trifectas: 1,9/ 1,9/ Field; 1,11/ 1,11/ Field; 9,11/9,11/Field

Flemington - MR 8 The Blazer

Reckon there’s one here that’s way over the odds – Weir’s Mare Kenedra .
The 7 Furlongs may be a touch short but $61 enhanced & $11 the Place is worth a Punt IMHO. Placed 4 of 5 starts 2nd up. She’s no doubt being set for something a little longer (like The Myer on Derby Day over the Mile, or even a Caulfield Classic over 2000m) but watch for her hitting the line late in this race. She’s 2 from 2 second up & placed 50% Track & Distance. Will need some luck from the inside gate & she does go back, but maybe she circles the field from the top of the straight & worth a cheeky 1 x 3 Units @ the huge odds, I reckon.

If Prompt Respons e gets a ‘soft lead’ then she’ll be hard to run down & Petition gets her chance to win a good race. Gotta love the big fields as there’s some value on offer if you can ‘pluck’ a winner.

Randwick – SR 7 The Spring Champion Stakes

Is it me, or is this year’s Race a bit lower in ‘quality’ than previous years?
Which of these runners goes to Melbourne for The Guineas next week? Do any?

Or can we find a ‘Derby Horse’ from this lot?
I’m thinking the Sydney 3 yr olds are better than their Melbourne counterparts, so the Derby winner could well come out of this race (or next week’s Guineas). Of this lot, Ace High is 2nd favourite for the Derby @ $9, Sully is $15 & next is the Godolphin runners Astoria & Sanctioned @ $17, along with Tangled - I think these prices alone support the view that this year’s Spring Champion is a bit below par.

Of the 10 runners, 6 come through the Gloaming (1800m), 3 the Dulcify (1600m) & 1 runner a Maiden @ the Gold Coast!
The Gloaming is probably the superior form race, so looking @ those runners I can entertain backing Sully @ the enhanced price of $10. If you go back through his form, he ran 2nd to Levendi in the Autumn over the unsuitable 6 Furlongs. He was beaten by 5 lengths in the Gloaming, but that was his first go ‘clockwise’, so willing to risk that run. 4th up here & in this field 2nd fav for The Derby, happy to have a small wager on him @ the price. 2 x 5 Units .

Trifectas: 4,6/4,6/ Field; 4,7/4,7/Field; 6,7/6,7/ Field

Randwick - SR 8 The Angst

Last week I stated that a Randwick Mile Race = Gai.
She’s got 2 runners in the field, My True Love & the ‘well bred’, Savapinski .

My True Love is unbeaten 2nd up. She does like to lead (what a shock for a Waterhouse runner) so the gate is a bit of a concern & she does find it hard to win. That said, perhaps the stablemate pushes forward from the inside & My True Love gets 1 out, 1 back behind Lovani or Imposing Lass. Also, the fact that Schofield rides is what pushes me toward her rather than the stable mate. The $3.10 the PLACE is good enough to cover the bet, so the Powered $11 is takeable. 3 Units x 7 Units .

Trifectas: 2,3/2,3/Field; 2,10/2,10/Field; 3,10/3,10/Field

Certainly hotting up with the Caulfield Carnival over the next 2 weeks & then Cox Plate & Flemington to follow in the weeks after.
Happy Punting Lads.

Well that was disappointing! Loomed @ the Furlong then died. Fast race up front didn't suit? Bugger!

Steven Trigg ...

Yeah, disappointed with that - the race is VERY open, betting-wise & the $61 would've been a chance.

14/10/2017 (Time Posted: 9:26pm Thursday, 12/10/17)

Last week was a shocker – only collect was the Place bet on Sully – on that run, I reckon he could win The Derby. He was the one finishing the race off the best. Currently $10 on Sportbet, $11 @ Ladbrokes – I’d want $13 & $4 to back it E/Way, but he’s my pick @ the minute for that race.
Anyway, we’ve got a big card this week to deal with first.

I’ll start with Sydney, because JK asked about The Everest.

Randwick – SR 8 The Everest

Can’t say I agree with the idea of a $10 million race for Sprinters in Australia but NSW seem to think that this will take some of the attention from The Melbourne Cup – yeah, right! Anyway, it’s another race to bet on at least.

Ball of Muscle leads (as always), with Houtzen outside it & Vega Magic coming over from an outside gate. Can’t fault She Will Reign – that run @ Mooney Valley was top class IMHO. The question is: Is Chautauqua the same horse he was? The pace on up front will suit him, but I wonder if he’s nearly had enough @ this level, now he’s a 7 yr old. He certainly hasn’t ‘set the world on fire’ this time in - $5.50 & $2.15???
Not for me – concede a Place Bet but don’t think he can win.

Vega Magic is a winner – must go in to all Multiples, but $4.80 is short enough.

I can’t believe that Fell Swoop is $61 & $16 the Place! I will have a PLACE ticket on it @ the price – has been placed @ the past 2 TJ Smith’s, beaten by Chautauqua & English in April.

I will be backing English in the race, 2 x 5 units @ the Powered $13.
Interesting Race, but not a $10 million one in my book.

Caulfield – MR 8 The Caulfield Guineas

Interestingly Hayes runs the filly Catchy here & not in the Thousand. That suggests they have a huge opinion of her & based on her previous runs, no surprise they go for the ‘bigger purse’ running in this race. That said, I have always believed that a ‘good colt will beat a good filly, more often than not’ & @ $4.50, I’m not prepared to back her.

I think the value runner is Salsamor – the Stutt run @ Mooney Valley was very good & at $6 the Place , I’ll have a bit on him running into ‘the money’. This race is traditionally known as the ‘Sires Race’ – so any Godolphin runner must be taken seriously. Sanctioned has ‘drawn the carpark’ so I expect it to go back. Kementari has to be given a chance on its previous run in the Prelude but @ $5.50 its too short for mine.

McEvoy said earlier in the week that if Royal Symphony runs well here, then he’ll go to the Cox Plate to take on Winx, with 49kgs. He’d want to run really well here to have any sort of show against ‘The Champ’.

The horse that gets the ‘gun run’ in the race is Gold Standard IMHO 8) . His run in the Stan Fox (1500m) was very good & I backed him in The Golden Rose, just missing out on 3rd Money. Difficult race, think I’ll stick with Gai, 2 x 5 Units with a 3 Units Place bet on Salsamor .

Trifectas: 6,7/ 6,7/ Field, 6,16/ 6,16/ Field, 7,16/ 7,16/ Field (2 x 2 x 14)

Caulfield – MR 9 The Toorak Handicap

So the ‘best loser’ in the Country goes around again. Tom Melbourne seems to find trouble EVERY race he’s in & from gate 15 here, he’s likely to do it again in this race! :roll:

Personally, I am a fan of the horse & it would not surprise me to see him win this race. The mile looks perfect for him but he has become a very costly proposition. I’ll put him in my Trifectas but that’s all.

I want to back the Mare here, I Am A Star .
She has a great record @ the distance. The wide gate is a concern but I’m hoping Melham can get her 1 off & a trail behind something like Jacquinot Bay or even Tom Melbourne. At the $17 Boosted on Ladbrokes & $4.25 , she’ll do me 1 x 4 Units . Concede a winning chance to Egg Tart.

Trifectas: 4, 6/ 4,6/ Field, 4,9/ 4,9/ Field, 6,9/ 6,9/ Field

Caulfield – MR 7 The Caulfield Stakes

I have to be honest, I thought Hartnell was going to the Caulfield Cup but that appears unlikely – ATM he’s $21 for that race but I heard a whisper that he’s not going there next week. To be fair, he’s probably a better Mile & a Quarter horse than the extra 2 furlongs, so I understand the thinking. That said, he ran 3rd in The Melbourne Cup last year, so perhaps Cummings has that race in mind? BUT he does have to carry 57.5kgs in that race (58kgs in CC if he runs), so I can’t back him in the ‘Big One’ – Caulfield Cup, different story.

He’s clearly the one to beat in THIS race but $3.30, not for me. Good to see the International Runners going around here before the Cups – that’s how it should be IMHO, I’ve been ‘banging on’ about that for years now! I’m prepared to back the Aiden O’Brien runner The Taj Mahal @ the price. Oliver in the seat suggests it’s a good horse & this is clearly a ‘lead up’ run for the Cox Plate. We won’t get this sort of price again this Spring, so 3 x 7 Units is a good bet @ the Powered $18 & $4.20 the Place .

What a great day’s racing in store.
Good Luck Lads, enjoy the day on the Punt! :D

Posted 8:40pm Thursday 26/10/2017
And we are back for Cox Plate & Manikato weekend.

Sorry about last week but I have been really busy @ work & at home – building the Boy an outdoor room.
Not much to say this week, only focussing on The Valley.
Before I get into the Preview, how much ‘flack’ is Craig Williams copping recently for his rides? Seems that he has ignored instructions on a few occasions recently, so one might expect that he will be out to win a few races over the next couple of weeks. We shall see.

Mooney Valley (Friday) – The Manikato Stakes

So, there are 2 Form Races to look at: The Everest & The Moir – but there are some distinct differences in the ‘Class’ of the Fields IMHO. That said, on the punt, do we look away from The Everest for a ‘value runner’? Vega Magic (ironically ridden by Williams) looks the winner but I can’t have him at the price. The ‘forgotten runner’ in the race is Spieth . He was well in the market last start & ‘flopped’ down the straight @ Headquarters. His pattern of racing does put him at a disadvantage but don’t be surprised if he is in the finish here.

I backed English in The Everest & was disappointed with how far back she got – she did finish off the race well. Mark Zahra is riding in career best form & I am happy to stick with her here. I’m hoping she gets to use the camber & flies home to nail the favourite. Concede a rough chance to Voodoo Lad as he has a great record here & Gate 1, & Chautauqua is always a chance in a race like this.
Sticking with English 2 x 5 Units & 3 Units Place on Voodoo Lad .

Trifecta: 1,2/ 1,2/ Field; 1,8/ 1,8/ Field; 2,8/ 2,8/ Field

Mooney Valley (Saturday) – The Cox Plate

This is my favourite race each year – IMHO, the BEST in the country. That said, I wish it were at Flemington so it were completely fair for all runners, like the ‘old’ Mckinnon Stakes when it was held on Derby Day. Can any of them beat the Mare? Probably not.

Interestingly, I heard on Radio this morning Max Presnell’s ‘Dream Plate’ Field – no Field’s of Omagh in the field surprised me (seeing she won 2 & was 3rd & 4th in another 2).

Suggest we all just sit back & enjoy the race … that said, I am a Punter so I am prepared to have a Punt, just because I can & must.

I have backed the Godolphin runner Folkswood to win, simply because the $29 Powered is worth a small wager. Leo Schlink said during the week “… he’s a very good horse”. I always look seriously @ the 3 year old’s in the race simply due to the huge weight advantage they have, therefore Royal Symphony has to be considered. I think she’ll win & probably comfortably, but I’m willing to punt.

Trifecta : Box 3, 5, 8, 9

Mooney Valley (Saturday) – The Vase

This is an interesting race. Cliff’s Edge was dominant on-pace last weekend but the track @ Caulfield was heavily biased in favour of front runners – so the short price here might be a bit misleading. The 1000 Guineas winner is very short too, but steps up another 2 furlongs for this race, so again at the short quote is a risk IMHO.

I do like Salsamor as a filly – surprisingly she’s not nominated for the Oaks. That suggests that this race could well be her GF. At the enhanced $14 with Ladbrokes is good value for mine. The $2.60 Place bet is a bit ‘skinny’ but might be a bit of insurance. Happy to take her 3 x 7 Units .

Trifecta : 2,3/ 2,3/ Field; 2,9/ 2,9/ Field; 3,9/ 3,9/ Field

Enjoy the Day Lads – expect a ‘bumper’ preview next week for my favourite Race day of the Year, Derby Day

Anyone else finding this year's Melbourne Cup a bit of a 'let down', hype-wise?
Sure there was plenty to do with Winx & her 3peat attempt/success but I have been under-whelmed with the coverage of the Cup.
The field doesn't look all that strong @ this stage either, to me.

Any thoughts?

04/11/2017 (Posted Wednesday 7:40pm)

It’s Derby Day – my favourite Race Day of the Year!

Now that all the Winx-hype has subsided, until next week when she likely runs in the Emirates (the Old McKinnon Stakes) @ WFA, we can enjoy the start of the Flemington Cup Carnival. As I said earlier in the week, not sure if it’s me, or has the Melbourne Cup not got the same ‘lustre’ this year?

Personally, I think the Field is below standard for the Cup this year – I can see it being a similar type year to when Shocking won it. I got the Trifecta that year & Crime Scene @ $15 the Place, so I hope if I’m right, a similar result will ensue in 2017 & I will get some added ‘coin’ for my European Adventure in Jan/Feb.

But before that, we need to get some money on Saturday!

Flemington – MR 7 The Victoria Derby

Once again, when assessing the form for this race, One must compare the ‘Sydney Form’ to that of the ‘Melbourne Form’. I said a couple of weeks ago that Sully was my pick for the race. I was reasonably impressed with the 3rd in the Spring Champion Stakes @ Randwick – it was the one running on toward the end of the 2000m.
That said, Tangled ran a good race for 2nd & backed it up with an equally good 2nd @ Caulfield behind last week’s winner Cliff’s Edge – Waller has to be respected & I fancy Tangled is a genuine contender in the race. The winner of the Spring Champion, Ace High , is the favourite for the race but I’m willing to risk it – both the Price & the fact it hasn’t run ‘left-handed’. It does get the ‘gun run’ from the Gate & reckon it runs Top 5 but too short (as always) for me.

I do like a ‘roughy’ in the race, Craig William’s mount, # 10 – Justice Faith .
It’s only win was 2 starts back @ Kyneton over 1875m & ran 6th in the Geelong Classic BUT, in it’s 2nd last prep @ Flemington over 1800m it came from the back, to run within 2 ½ lengths of the winner (interestingly ridden by Williams). I expect that it will be running on in the last Furlong, so at the $11 Place @ Ladbrokes, it’s worth a Place ticket.

Sticking with Sully at the enhanced $10 & $2.70 – 2 x 5 Units ; afraid of Tangled , backing it the Win only, Powered $8 for 5 Units , Place ticket on Justice Faith – 3 Units .

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 3, 6, 10

Flemington – MR 4 The Lexus

No doubt Spargo is hoping the Geelong Cup winner Vengeur Masque wins the race & definitely gets into the Cup field on Tuesday. Personally, I don’t think he’ll win this race – but could still get a run Tuesday through natural attrition. Very interesting race for a number of reasons; obviously the ‘prize’ of a Cup place, the speed/tempo of the race (reckon Equador leads with Aloft) & the number of runs leading up to this race – 2 runners are 4th up, 3 are 5th up, 2 are 6th up. I like the 2 down the bottom; Alward & Kellstorm . McEvoy won this race last year, with the winner coming out of the Geelong Cup. Kellstorm ran in that race this year, whilst Waller’s runner ran 2nd in Sydney. Can see Kellstorm as the one finishing the race off best & at the Powered $10 & $2.70, he’ll do me – 3 x 7 Units .

Trifectas: 4,9/ 4,9/ Field; 4,10/ 4,10/ Field; 9,10/ 9,10/ Field

Flemington – MR 2 The Wakeful Stakes

A race for 3 yr old Fillies is always a difficult proposition for any Punter - so many variables in terms of how they are ‘mentally’ on the day, not to mention in running. I think the McEvoy runner Bring Me Roses is a false favourite here – she won @ $17 last start in the Edward Manifold & she’s posted @ around 3/1 for this race. Admittedly she won well in that race but the price is way ‘Unders’ IMHO.

I must admit I’m a ‘bit bullish’ about the Mick Price runner Hiyaam for this race. 8)
She’s proven at the distance, having run 3rd in the Ethereal last start & if you look at the price differential between it & the favourite (having run 2nd to Bring Me Roses), the $9.50 boosted & $2.70 the Place is a better bet than the fav. McEvoy (the Kerrin variety) is finding form again – did he ever lose it? I concede a winning chance to his mount Rimraam & I am always wary of Darren Weir, so have to throw in Teodora . Backing Hiyaam 3 x 7 Units .

Trifectas: 5,6/ 5,6/ Field; 5,10/ 5,10/ Field; 6,10/ 6,10/ Field

Flemington – MR 6 The Myer Classic

Last year I backed Denmagic in this race – ran 3rd @ 60/1 (isn’t it funny how we always remember the odd ‘winner’ but easily forget the MANY losers?). Not sure I can find one at that sort of price THIS year but I do like Dixie Blossoms @ $15 Powered & the $3.80 the Place is very good – might get $4 on the day. She’s been running really well in Sydney (superior form lines?) for the 1 win & that was over the Mile – clearly her best distance. Wary of Silent Sedition & Global Glamor . Happy to back my judgement here – Dixie Blossoms 3 x 7 Units .

Trifectas: 3,5/ 3,5/ Field; 3,8/ 3,8/ Field; 5,8/ 5,8/ Field

Flemington – MR 5 The Coolmore Stud Stakes

If you are thinking of gambling on the Outside fence being the ‘fast lane’ – this is not usually the case at the beginning of the Carnival, but by Thursday & certainly by the final day, it is. I’m looking for something in the middle of the field that gets some cover behind other horses, then gets out over the last furlong & a half.

The value runner is Merchant Navy .
He ‘flopped’ in Sydney, having gone there unbeaten. Mark Zahra has been in ripping form this season thus far & it has been backed early in the week - $21 to $15. I’m happy with the boosted $26 & love the current $5.50 the Place on Ladbrokes. He’ll do me, 1 x 4 Units .

So, there you go Lads - early this week & looking for some nice collects.
I said last year I won’t return to Morphettville, so I’m looking for a good venue to spend the day – any suggestions?
Enjoy the Day, lets hope we get some cash to ‘blow’ on Tuesday. :roll:

Good Day

Winner @ $26 & $5.50 - Merchant Navy
2nd @ $2.80 - Sully
3rd @ $3.80 - Dixie Blossoms

Box Trifecta in the Derby

Will give it all back on Tuesday

07/11/2017 – Melbourne Cup Preview only (Posted: 11:50am Sunday 05/11/2017 )

Thought I would do the Cup today, then see if I can’t get some others late Monday night or early Tuesday to add. Good Day Saturday (how was Zahra's ride on Merchant Navy??? GOLD!) & a few $$$ to give back to the Bookies on Cup Day. :roll:

Each year I wade through the Form Guide trying to find the winner & each year (more often than not) I end up collecting on the race but because I’ve outlaid way too much on the Exotics, I end up losing on the race! Last year I backed the winner Almandin the Place, but lost on the race. I did win on the Day, but only mainly due to a Snowden filly, late on the Card. I usually spend way too much time & energy trawling through the Form Guide & trying in vain to assess the Form Lines of the overseas runners.

I am beginning to come around to the thoughts of ‘The Cups King’ & wanting the Cup to be for Australian & NZ horses only. It seems to be losing its appeal & as far as a punting proposition gets harder & harder to be successful at. But being the compulsive gambler that I am, I can’t resist continuing to try & ‘crack’ a big dividend – but 1 Trifecta collect in 35 years doesn’t suggest I know much about it, but I will always have fond memories of my 39th Birthday & cheering Shocking & Crime Scene down the Flemington straight in 2009.

Speaking of past history.
Only 2 winners of the race have been 8 year olds – the last was ‘Catalogue’ in 1938. That statistic alone is significant when trying to find the Winner of the race. Only 11 (including Almandin last year) 7 year olds have won the race, 4 since What a Nuisance in 1985 – Rogan Josh 1999, Makybe’s 3rd in 2005, Almandin & Vintage Crop 1993.

Since 2000 (Brew) 6 year olds have been the most successful, winning 9 Cups (only 29 in total). 5 year olds have a total of 47 winners (only 3 since Kingston Rule in 1990 – one of which was the Mare’s 1st in 2003, the last was Protectionist in 2014). 4 year olds have won 44 Cups (6 since Let’s Elope in 1991), the last being Shocking in 2009. 3 year olds have won
23 Cups but there are none in this year’s race, although Rekindling is an English 3 yr old.

What does all of this mean, I hear you ask?
Well, I think it is important to recognise historical factors when trying to wade through 24 runners & find a winner. These statistics (& they are only that, statistics) I think are relevant, as I am prepared to rule out all the 8 year olds in the field from winning the race. That means the following Numbers are out: 2 Almandin, 9 Max Dynamite, 11 Who Shot the Barman, 12 Wicklow Brave, 21 Thomas Hobson. This at least brings the field down to 19 contenders as a WINNING chance. With the statistics since 1985, I’m happy to remove the 7 year olds as well because I’m taking the Punt that last year was the ‘odd’ 7 year old winner. That means we can remove: 1 Hartnell, 16 Gallante, 17 Libran, 18 Nakeeta (although I am reluctant to remove him because of his Ebor win, but you can’t have them all).
Now we are down to 15 possible Winners – hard, isn’t it??? Just so you know; Box 15 Trifecta will cost you $2370 for 50% of the dividend!!!

So now we’ve used the Age as an ‘eliminator’, we can move to weights . Since Kingston Rule in 1990, the weight carried by the winner of the Race has ranged between; Brew carring 49kgs in 2000, 51kgs (Lets Elope 1991, Shocking 2009) to 58 kgs (Makybe Diva 2005). Of those, 16 of 27 have carried between 53kgs & 55.5kgs. The weights are so compressed this year, that this isn’t a suitable consideration, except perhaps removing 3 Humidor from winning calculations.

So, if weight isn’t a consideration, we have to now look at DISTANCE performances. Personally, apart from Age, I think this is THE most important consideration. There are a couple of considerations; (1) won at 2400m+, (2) placed 2400m+ in any of last 5 starts. Remove: 3, 7, 10, 19 – now down to a more manageable 11 runners.
That leaves: 4,5,6,8,13,14,15,20,22,23,24

The final ‘elimination process’ is Pre-post Price .
The last 20 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1 … this suggests that only 15% of winners in the past 20 years have been priced above $15 & that 60% of winners have been 10/1 or shorter!
Of the remaining runners left in the Field (@ Midday Sunday prior to the Race), it leaves us with ONLY Marmelo under 10/1 & leaves us with Wall of Fire & Rekindling under $15.

Looking at the Jockeys for these 3 runners, we find that they are all Australian which is a BIG plus. Rekindling probably has the best Gate of the 3 runners, Marmelo ’s ‘slashing run in the Caulfield Cup gives it the ‘form advantage’ & Wall of Fire has had the one ‘lead-up run’ & drops 5kgs from that 2nd in the Herbert Power. I will be backing ALL 3 Horses in the Race, Win & Place & I will have a little something on The Ebor winner Nakeeta .

Trifecta: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22, 23/ Field (for 20%) $106
Box Trifecta: 2, 5, 18, 20, 21, 22 (for 30%) $36

Pick 4: 5, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22/ 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 18, 20, 22 (for 3%) $31
Box Pick 4: 2, 5, 9, 13, 20, 22 (for 5%) $18

Hope this gives you blokes something extra to ponder upon as you try in vain (like me) to find that elusive BIG pay out. I will assess the rest of the Card & add any thoughts when I get a chance. Happy Punting …

07/11/2017 – Cup Day Preview (Posted: 9:35pm Monday 06/11/2017)

So, we come to another Cup Day. I want to remind you all (ironic, considering my previous Cup Preview Post :roll: ) that the Melbourne Cup is a horse race to bet on – there are plenty of others & getting a winner in the Cup is no different to getting a winner in the 1st or the Last race of the day – the Bookies pay out just the same.

Flemington Race 9 – Security Sprint

Backed a good price winner last year in this race & I reckon there’s another well priced runner in this year’s version. The straight races @ Flemington during the Carnival, often throw up some value runners into the Placings. I expect the big field here to split into 2 Groups, 1 down the inside & the other down the outside rail. I expect 3, 7, 16, 15, 1, 8 & 2 to go to the outside rail & I expect 3 & 7 to lead that bunch. I like the top weight Kuro to get a cosy run behind them & get the last ‘crack’ at them. If the outside is the ‘fast lane’, I reckon he can run a place, if not win the race. Happy to gamble on him 1 x 4 Units at the Enhanced $21 & $5.50 the Place. 8)

No trifecta bet due to the ‘split packs’.

Flemington Race 3 – The Lavazza Short Black

Interesting race this one. Dollar for Dollar is unbeaten at the 7 furlongs from 3 starts, but has had 3 starts at Headquarters for no placings & that is a worry for mine. The pace of the race will be interesting & I’m thinking it will be willing early, especially from 7, 15 & 9 trying to get across the front of the field. Dollar for Dollar should push up from the inside gate too, so I’m looking for something getting a nice easy run in behind them around the corner & getting out & winding up from the 300m mark. That horse might be Land of Plenty but he’s a little too short for me at 5/1 having only been placed 5 of 13 starts. I want to back Atlantic City because I think he maps well. 3rd Up, drops 3 kgs on his previous run & if you go back over his form, he has 2 very good runs @ Sandown (long straight), including a win over Bradman who is no slouch. At the enhanced $34 & the $7.75 the Place on Ladbrokes is very agreeable. I will take him 1 x 4 Units. Think he’ll run home strongly.

Trifectas: 3, 8/ 3, 8/ Field; 3, 9/ 3, 9/ Field; 8,9/ 8,9/ Field

Flemington Race 10 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club

Open race to end the day. No doubt many will either be ‘topping up’ after a good day on the Punt, or trying to ‘escape’ with a collect on the last. The proposition means that pre-post betting is not warranted IMHO, as you are likely to get a better price via the TOTE if (like me) you don’t like backing favourites. Looking at the form of these Mares, they are all in pretty good form, with 11 of the 14 runners, placing last start! I reckon No. 9 Quilista might be able to ‘stack them up’ here & with Zahra riding in career best form, she might give a great site from the front. This former Perth galloper appears to run best when she can dictate from the front. If I can get $11 & $3.50 I can entertain a bet on her. Dangers are 6 & 13. Miss Gunpowder especially, is a real chance in this race IMHO 8) , 3rd up. So I will have a ‘saver’ on her. Quillista 2 x 5 Units, Miss Gunpowder 3 x 5 Units.

Trifectas: 6, 9/ 6, 9/ Field; 6, 13/ 6, 13/ Field; 9, 13/ 9, 13/ Field

There you go Lads, another Cup Day to enjoy!
Good Luck, hopefully we have enough left for The Oaks on Thursday ;)
Happy Punting & Enjoy the Day!

Err...

The Winner!
20% of the Trifecta
3% of the Pick 4

Hope you got on lads!

Must say, I'm pretty happy with both the Derby & Melbourne Cup Trifectas...
Already been to Western Union & got some extra GBP's & Euros for our Trip

TBH, I've had an early look ;)
Think I want to steer away from those who ran Saturday, generally.
Funny how the short priced fav for the Wakeful, Bring Me Roses, is 20/1 for The Oaks!

I'm considering Reliable Dame at this stage - $22 Powered & $3.70 the Place.
She ran well behind Astoria @ Geelong & he ran a close 3rd in the Derby.
Can entertain 1 x 4 Units on her.

The favourite will be difficult to toss, but I'm always prepared to take short priced one's on, in search of Value.
I am still a fan of Hiyaam, despite the disappointing result Saturday, missing the Place & the Waterhouse runner Pinot will be fit, of that you can be certain, & Blake Shinn will be keen to win this race, having not had a ride in the Cup & he's had a great Spring Carnival. Backing Pinot 6 Units the WIN , only & 4 Units the Place on Hiyaam.

Happy to have a 'throw at the stumps':
Trifecta: 2, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 8 / Field (for 50%) $30

Sorry LPH I had a dinner tonight
Well done mate. Really happy for you. You put in a lot of effort on here for us mug punters so deserve a great day =D>

Thanks for the love Lads but...

Please don't be fooled - I too am a 'mug punter', but I keep coming back each year hoping to crack it big :roll:
TBF, I've had a good Spring - that is undeniable (the hangover this morning is proof of that 8) )

The beauty of the punt is there is always another race or meeting or Carnival to have a crack at :D
So, we keep going.

As for the previews, I do enjoy reading form, predicting pace/speed maps & looking for VALUE.
I am appreciative that I have THIS Forum to express my views & discuss issues around my passion(s).

The one thing I've learned over doing this for 30 odd years is unless you get the PRICE you want, don't bet - if the price you want is Even Money & the horse is Even Money, great. But if its $1.95, its unders. I never back horses under $8 anyway, but if I've assessed it @ $12 & $4, & its showing $11 & $3.80, I won't take it. Sure if it places I'm kicking myself for not taking it, but I console myself with the thought that it wasn't MY Price. That may mean I have underestimated the Horse or the Market, but so be it.

By no means am I a 'Gun Analyst' like Gator or Hutchy on racing.com, but by the same token, I like to think I'm disciplined @ least.
The only time I take the Exotics is Carnival time (Spring, Autumn or a Major Race like the Stradbroke in QLD, The Adelaide Cup or Goodwood here, etc.) - because the Pools are so much larger than normal. I have found (over my records, yes, I keep records) that Box Trifectas, in the main, lose alot. You are better to take 'Legs'. That said, it also appears the the 'value' has gone out of the Trifecta as a bet option & the Pick 4 is becoming a much better value bet - albeit, much harder to get & for a smaller %. I assume its because of the Tax that is taken from the Pool?

Anyway, we'll be back again tomorrow to give a % of yesterday's success back to the bookies :roll: Swings & Roundabouts Lads :lol:
My head hurts! But I am at work.

Sorry Lads... but I had a sneaky Pick 4 on the Oaks:



I did tip you the Winner & 3rd though
Hope you got on.

Can't believe the Exotics I've got this Spring!
Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup, Oaks - Pick 4s
Derby , Melbourne Cup - Trifectas

Sheesh...