2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Best Bets? Talking Odds? This is the place.

2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Dutchy » Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:50 pm

2007 Season Telstra DOOM analysis

Alright Ive been meaning to do this for a while but have finally found some time to complete, looked back through all my stats for the 2007 season and this is the first instalment -

Teams Record the week after playing at the DOOM -

First line is ATS (At The Start/Spread) and second is SU (Straight Up)

Code: Select all
Adelaide      1-2..........1-2
Brisbane      1-2..........1-2
Carlton       3-4..........2-5
Collingwood   2-0..........2-0
Essendon      1-8..........2-7
Freo          1-1..........1-1
Geelong       5-1..........5-1   
Hawks         1-5..........2-4
Roos          7-2..........7-2
Melb          2-2..........1-3
Port          2-0..........2-0
Richmond      1-2..........0-3
Saints        3-8..........5-3-1
Sydney        1-1..........1-1
West Bull     4-7..........3-7-1
West Coast    0-4..........2-2

TOTALS

35-47 ATS a nice 57% record if you backed against this trend blindly all season.

37-43-2 SU record, not a huge difference however

take the top 4 teams out of the above stats (Cats, Roos, Collingwood & Port) and

20-44 ATS 68% record!!!!! :shock:
22-40-2 SU


This is on top of the 5-15 record for teams ATS who have played 2 weeks in a row on the DOOM (fade them on the 3rd week)

Pretty convincing stats I would have thought.......

Next instlament will be teams after a 6 day break....
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46345
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2665 times
Been liked: 4354 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Dutchy » Thu Feb 28, 2008 6:04 pm

Ill add that the interesting stats here ATS are -

WCE lost all 4 games after playing at the TD last year
Hawks and Saints struggled also after playing at the TD

All of the above teams had reasonable years

Geelong and Roos played very well after the DOOM games and to a lesser degree so did Port and Collingwood
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46345
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2665 times
Been liked: 4354 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Punk Rooster » Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:57 am

ATS= ?
SU= ?
Ralph Wiggum wrote:That's where I saw the leprechaun. He told me to burn things

Ken Farmer>John Coleman

Hindmarsh Pest Control
User avatar
Punk Rooster
Coach
 
 
Posts: 11948
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 9:30 am
Location: Paper Street Soap Company
Has liked: 16 times
Been liked: 16 times
Grassroots Team: Fitzroy

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Dutchy » Fri Feb 29, 2008 10:33 am

Punk Rooster wrote:ATS= ?
SU= ?


Apologies

At The Start/Spread (points or line)
Straight Up (Win or Money Line)
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46345
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2665 times
Been liked: 4354 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Ecky » Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:47 pm

Nice analysis Dutchy.

One comment though - I don't think it is really valid to take out the top 4 teams, as that is using hindsight - you don't know who the top 4 teams will be during the year when placing the bets.
John Olsen, June 2012 wrote:"Reserves teams in the SANFL for the two AFL clubs is not negotiable.
We will not compromise the SANFL competition (with AFL reserves teams)."
User avatar
Ecky
2022 SA Footy Punter of the Year
 
 
Posts: 2736
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:26 am
Location: Wherever the stats are
Has liked: 12 times
Been liked: 78 times
Grassroots Team: Adelaide Lutheran

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby mal » Fri Feb 29, 2008 1:55 pm

Gotta luv the DUTCHY systems threads on all sports
Dutchy is the doyen of punters
So many portfolios
And so many succesess
Dutchys TD system last year was a real $$$$ making system


MALS TD SYSTEM

Lets keep an eye on the DOOMDUTCHMAL specials selections
MALS DOOMDAY system [incorporating Dutchys system with MALS fine tuning]
When a non DOOM resident plays 2 consecutive games at the DOOM bet against them the following week.
This excludes residents SK/WB/KA

My first bet comes up in round 6
CO V ES
ES play these games
R4 ES V WB [TD]
R5 SK V ES [TD]

R6 is a nice easy date to remember its 25/04/08
CO V ES [MCG]
The Anzac Day special will be COLLINGWOOD

Not too many bets in the DOOMSDUTCHMAL system but get on when it does.
mal
Coach
 
Posts: 30330
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:45 pm
Has liked: 2130 times
Been liked: 2183 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby another grub » Fri Feb 29, 2008 2:18 pm

Im confused???????
BL are $1-00-2 :shock: thats not even $1-01
User avatar
another grub
Coach
 
Posts: 15432
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2005 10:02 am
Has liked: 2724 times
Been liked: 1385 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Feb 29, 2008 2:35 pm

another grub wrote:Im confused???????


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

its not rocket science :lol: :lol: :wink:
Matty Wade is a star and deserves more respect from the forum family!
User avatar
mighty_tiger_79
Coach
 
Posts: 61074
Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:29 pm
Location: at the TAB
Has liked: 13489 times
Been liked: 4664 times

Re: 2007 AFL Season - Trend Analysis

Postby Dutchy » Fri Feb 29, 2008 4:47 pm

Ecky wrote:Nice analysis Dutchy.

One comment though - I don't think it is really valid to take out the top 4 teams, as that is using hindsight - you don't know who the top 4 teams will be during the year when placing the bets.


agree it is tricky Ecky however we do get a feel for the better teams and the average teams half way thru the year....fair to say Geelong, Roos and Port where all int he top 4 for most of the year...

what it does indicate though that the medical/conditioning teams at Geelong, Port, Roos and Collingwood were right on the mark in preparing the team for games after the DOOM games...soemthing to take notice of this year....

still amazed of WCE record of 0-4 ATS after playing at the DOOM last year considering all those games were at Subi...
User avatar
Dutchy
Site Admin
 
 
Posts: 46345
Joined: Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:24 am
Location: Location, Location
Has liked: 2665 times
Been liked: 4354 times


Board index   General Talk  The Gambling Room

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests

Around the place

Competitions   SANFL Official Site | Country Footy SA | Southern Football League | VFL Footy
Club Forums   Snouts Louts | The Roost | Redlegs Forum |