stan wrote:am Bays wrote:Hung Parliament coming up
Cross-benchers rule, OK!
Considering the nutters on the cross bench that would be pretty ******.
I reckon the Libs get done. Close but get done. No hung parliament.
Absolutely teh LNP lose their majority, but I see the rise of the independents.
March 2019 Labor had a primary vote according to newspoll of 39% on election day it was just under 34%. The two party preferred in the March 2019 was 56-44 the same as it is right now,
This week their primary primary vote was 41%. Labors problem is that in the seat it holds their primary vote is high and they hold their seats easily it's the marginals where they struggle and even some of their old rusted on seats in the Hunter are under threat because of Labors stance on coal. They are defending 12 seats under a margin of 3%. The LNP 3.
They have 68 seats (69 considering they've notionally gained a seat in the 2020 redistribution) right now they need another seven to form government in their own right. They'll win some seats but they are going to need big swings in the redneck wonderland of Qld to get to seven seats to form an absolute majority.
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-federal-electoral-pendulum/I can see more voters than normal going to vote in May, and thinking, "Well Scotty from marketing is a tosser, but who is Albo, all right I'll vote for my local socially wet, economically dry independent. like Zali Steggle (she'll hold her seat as the Libs haven't even got a candidate yet).
I'm personally going to be surprised if it's not a hung parliament, the greens will get an extra seat if they can get 2nd in the primary vote in a couple of seats).
Let that be a lesson to you Port, no one beats the Bays five times in a row in a GF and gets away with it!!!