2018 AFL Ladder predictions

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Brodlach » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:30 pm

Stop being so quick*



*thats what she says too
July 11th 2012....
Brodlach wrote:Rory Laird might end up the best IMO, he is an absolute jet. He has been in great form at the Bloods
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Corona Man » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:31 pm

Brodlach wrote:Stop being so quick*



*thats what she says too

Sorry, I had already finished.


*that's what I say too
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Lightning McQueen » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:32 pm

Brodlach wrote:Stop being so quick*



*thats what she says too

No one told me that it wasn't a race.
HOGG SHIELD DIVISION V WINNER 2018.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:46 pm

ST KILDA
2017 record: 11 wins, 11 losses (11th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 15th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 17th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 15th

THE INS
Logan Austin (Port Adelaide), Hunter Clark (Dandenong Stingrays), Nick Coffield (Northern Knights), Oscar Clavarino (Dandenong Stingrays), Ben Paton (Murray Bushrangers), Doulton Langlands (Murray Bushrangers)

THE OUTS
Nick Riewoldt (retired), Leigh Montagna (retired), Sean Dempster (retired), Nick Coughlan (delisted), Joe Baker-Thomas (delisted), Jason Holmes (delisted), Nick O’Kearney (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Jimmy Webster, Nathan Brown, Sam Gilbert
HB: Jarryn Geary, Jake Carlisle, Dylan Roberton
C: Seb Ross, Jack Steven, Jack Newnes
HF: Jack Billings, Josh Bruce, Maverick Weller
F: Tim Membrey, Paddy McCartin, Jade Gresham
Foll: Billy Longer, Jack Steele, Koby Stevens
Inter: David Armitage, Luke Dunstan, Jack Sinclair, Blake Acres
Emerg: Hugh Goddard, Shane Savage, Jack Lonie

THE PROGNOSIS
St Kilda began last year rated alongside Melbourne the team most likely to force its way into the final eight. Both ended up missing out, the Saints winning 11 games, just one less than their rival, yet headed into 2018, expectations over the two teams have parted ways.

Most pundits (including me) are a lot more bullish about the Demons now than St Kilda. Is that fair given their respective records? Perhaps not, but perception in football is a powerful thing, and right now, it’s that the Saints have a lot more work to do to get there.

St Kilda had two standout performances in 2017, the round 16 obliteration of eventual premier Richmond, and an early season home win over GWS, but they proved more the exception than the rule. The Saints won only three of 11 games against top eight teams and lost six games by 40 points or more, often looking pedestrian midfield, stretched down back as a result, and not nearly as potent up forward.

There’s been an enormous loss of experience over the off-season, too, via the retirements of Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and Sean Dempster, making St Kilda now the second least-experienced team in the competition. Can that be replaced overnight?

There were gains, nonetheless, Seb Ross outstanding and a deserved best and fairest winner, ditto Dylan Roberton, Jake Carlisle and Nathan Brown proving valuable key defenders, and more improvement from Jack Billings, Jimmy Webster and Jade Gresham.

But there’s going to have to be more go right besides if St Kilda is to continue its gradual developmental curve under coach Alan Richardson.

The Saints had their share of stoppage wins last season, but couldn’t do enough with them, ranking mid-table or worse on the differentials for disposals, contested and uncontested ball and inside 50 entries.

A forward set-up which had functioned well previously with Riewoldt, Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey seemed to go backwards, and with Riewoldt now gone there’s more pressure than ever on the injury-plagued Paddy McCartin to step into the breech.

They’ll need decent supply, though, which means St Kilda is going to need more out of midfield imports Jack Steele and Koby Stevens, a full season out of David Armitage, whom groin injuries restricted to just two games in 2017, and a bit then from top 10 draft pair Hunter Clark and Nick Coffield.

That will certainly relieve some of the pressure on Jack Steven, whom oppositions have recently had the relative luxury of concentrating all their attentions upon with the desired results.

Even then the Saints still need the likes of Billings, Gresham, Luke Dunstan, Jack Sinclair and Blake Acres to continue to improve if this generation is going to find the requisite class to match it with the really good sides.

There’s a toughish draw, too, Footyology’s draw analysis placing St Kilda’s fixture in terms of difficulty better only than grand finalists Richmond and Adelaide and another finalist in West Coast. Whatever progress the Saints do make in 2018 certainly isn’t going to be gifted to them.

THE PREDICTION
12th. St Kilda’s absolute best is very capable, but how often are teams these days allowed to produce that level? Need a raft of players to jump to higher levels of output.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:46 pm

COLLINGWOOD
2017 record: 9 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw (13th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 5th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 3rd
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 3rd

THE INS
Sam Murray (Sydney), Jaidyn Stephenson (Eastern Ranges), Nathan Murphy (Sandringham Dragons), Tyler Brown (Eastern Ranges), Flynn Appleby (GWV Rebels), Brody Mihocek (Port Melbourne), Jack Madgen (Delta State University, USA)

THE OUTS
Lachie Keeffe (delisted/GWS), Jesse White (retired), Liam Mackie (delisted), Mitch McCarthy (delisted), Henry Schade (delisted), Ben Sinclair (retired), Jackson Ramsay (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Brayden Maynard, Lynden Dunn, Tyson Goldsack
HB:Jeremy Howe, Darcy Moore, Jack Crisp
C: Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar, Daniel Wells
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott, Ben Reid, Travis Varcoe
F: Alex Fasolo, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott
Foll: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams
Inter: Jordan De Goey, Tom Phillips, Tom Langdon, Levi Greenwood
Emerg: Matt Scharenberg, Josh Thomas, Tim Broomhead

THE PROGNOSIS
Ahh, the conundrum that is Collingwood. So handy on paper, so disappointing in reality.

If you detect a little jaded cynicism in that comment, you’re spot on. Footyology is just one of a number of pundits who’ve been burned badly by the Pies these past couple of years, our predictions of top four in 2016 and at least a finals berth last season coming badly unstuck.

Third time lucky? Perhaps, but we’re not taking another gamble. Particularly not seeing as (from our perspective) the Magpies don’t appear to have sorted out their forward line issues.

Yes, the Pies have a glut of midfield talent. But we’re worried nonetheless by the sending of Darcy Moore to the backline, and potential key forwards in Ben Reid and Mason Cox, one who has despite handy “swingman” form has spent the bulk of a career in the backline, and the other a pinch-hitting ruckman still in some respects learning the game.

That’s in addition to two very good but injury and health issue plagued smaller forwards in Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo. There’s a lot of “ifs” about that whole quartet. And a bottom line that a side good enough to finish 2017 ranked No.1 for disposals and contested possession should be ranking a lot higher than 11th for points scored.

Champion Data have drilled down on a couple of significant statistics about Collingwood’s inefficiency in both the forward line and midfield.

Teams which win the inside 50 count also win the game on average 71 per cent of the time. But in the Pies’ case, that figure was just 54 per cent last season, a dismal ranking of 14th.

In midfield, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Taylor Adams represent a dream on-ball set-up, and Daniel Wells (fitness permitting) valuable run and ball use. But while they’ve proved adept at winning the hard balls, the Pies, significantly, ranked only 15th last season on the rankings for loose ball gets.

In short, there’s not enough possession being won in the sort of space required to use it damagingly. And do the Pies have enough skilful users of the football? It’s debatable.

Not that there aren’t upsides as a reprieved coach Nathan Buckley goes about getting Collingwood into a finals series for the first time in five attempts.

One is an inherent competitiveness which meant last season the Pies, whilst only winning nine games and drawing another, nonetheless suffered only two defeats by more than 30 points among a dozen losses.

The other is a very handy draw, the third-best in the competition according to Footyology’s analysis last November.

Collingwood play only two finalists from last year twice (Essendon and Richmond), have only five road trips, and just one to Perth, and get 14 games on the MCG, including five of the first six.

Then again, those first half-dozen opponents include Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, Essendon and Richmond. That’s a challenging run to say the least, one which might give us a very early pointer to whether 2018 is going to be yet another of those years for the Pies.

THE PREDICTION
11th. Plenty of cream in the middle for Collingwood, not so much excitement about the foundations or decorations on this cake, though.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
PAFC. Forever.

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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Rik E Boy » Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:49 pm

A glut of midfield talent who can't hit the side of a barn. Probably the worst coach in the league as well. No ways the Pies finish 11th I reckon.

regards,

REB
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Corona Man » Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:54 pm

Rik E Boy wrote:A glut of midfield talent who can't hit the side of a barn. Probably the worst coach in the league as well. No ways the Pies finish 11th I reckon.

regards,

REB


Chatting with my boss this morning about Collingwood, he is a pies fan. Reckons they a dead set ordinary, and the players all love Buckley. Probably as he doesn't ask them any hard questions! Didn't the worst coach in the league "out-coach" Scott last year..... and Clarko for that matter!
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:52 pm

HAWTHORN
2017 record: 10 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw (12th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 1st
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 1st
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 7th

THE INS
Jarman Impey (Port Adelaide), James Worpel (Geelong Falcons), Dylan Moore (Eastern Ranges), Jackson Ross (Eastern Ranges), Harrison Jones (Murray Bushrangers), David Mirra (Box Hill), Changkuoth Jiath (Ethiopia)

THE OUTS
Luke Hodge (Brisbane), Luke Surman (retired), Josh Gibson (retired), Jack Fitzpatrick (retired), Bill Hartung (delisted/North Melbourne), Kade Stewart (delisted), Ty Vickery (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Grant Birchall, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB: Ryan Burton, James Sicily, Shaun Burgoyne
C: Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Jarman Impey
HF: Luke Breust, Tim O’Brien, Cyril Rioli
F: Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O’Meara, Liam Shiels
Inter: Blake Hardwick, Kaiden Brand, Taylor Duryea, Daniel Howe
Emerg: Will Langford, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jonathon Ceglar

THE PROGNOSIS
Several times already during his wildly-successful tenure as Hawthorn coach, Alastair Clarkson has shown a preparedness to change tack in order to keep the Hawks at the forefront of the competition.

He did it again last year, and while the results weren’t as spectacular, they may have more long-reaching effects.

At 1-5 and in 17th spot on the ladder, the obituaries for one of the game’s greatest eras had well and truly been wheeled out. Clarkson, however, didn’t panic. He wheeled out more youngsters, threw established players into different positions, and somehow the Hawks clicked back into gear.

Hawthorn would win nine and draw another of its last 16 games, and four of the six defeats were by three goals less. By the end of the season, they were not only competitive, but a very real chance to re-enter the finals fray before their headstone had even been prepared.

And the reasons for opponents to fear another Hawthorn surge are genuine. Despite the departure of another couple of cornerstones in Luke Hodge and Josh Gibson, the Hawks remain the oldest, most experienced list in the competition.

They’re still one of the more polished, cleanest-using sides going around. And after a year racked by injury, in 2018, they’ll regain very, very handy virtual recruits in Cyril Rioli, Ben Stratton, James Frawley and (another injury notwithstanding) Grant Birchall.

There’s a bona fide recruit in former Port Adelaide runner Jarman Impey who could also add plenty, certainly at least an effective replacement for the considerable loss which was Brad Hill’s departure for Fremantle a year ago.

Then there’s a draw which, by Hawthorn standards, is a comparative walk in the park, Footyology ranking it seventh-best in the AFL in 2018.

It’s the first time in six years that, going by my formula, the Hawks haven’t had either the toughest or second-toughest draw in the competition. Not including Launceston (where they’ve now won 43 of 56 home games), they make just four road trips (two of them short hauls to Sydney), and including Launceston, have seven games against an opponent from interstate.

Now the reservations. As great a first year in new colours as Tom Mitchell had, does he have enough support? Much of that question will be answered by Jaeger O’Meara’s durability after a first season for the Hawks which was a bit of a non-event.

But even then, much will be required (as usual) from the ageless Shaun Burgoyne in his pinch-hitting guise, Liam Shiels, the improving Daniel Howe, and even the likes of first-year recruits James Worpel and Dylan Moore.

Up forward, Jack Gunston’s likely return to the goal face should help the scoreboard tick over more fluently, the Hawks after having been the No.1 scoring team in the competition from 2012-15 falling to 14th last year.

The Hawks will still need, however, to get the same level of forward pressure from their smalls as was the case a couple of seasons ago. Time will tell whether Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo can still deliver what they did in 2015.

Like the Hawks as a whole, that’s now bigger “if” than it used to be. But you can reasonably confident Hawthorn certainly won’t be the spent force it seemed six rounds into 2017.

THE PREDICTION
10th. Not what they were, but still a lot better than it seemed they were likely to become for a little while there. Definite finals threat.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:52 pm

WESTERN BULLDOGS
2017 record: 11 wins, 11 losses (10th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 14th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 15th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 5th

THE INS
Jackson Trengove (Port Adelaide), Hayden Crozier (Fremantle), Josh Schache (Brisbane Lions), Aaron Naughton (Peel Thunder), Ed Richards (Oakleigh Chargers), Callum Porter (Gippsland Power), Billy Gowers (Footscray)

THE OUTS
Robert Murphy (retired), Matthew Boyd (retired), Jake Stringer (Essendon), Stewart Crameri (delisted/Geelong), Travis Cloke (retired), Josh Prudden (delisted), Declan Hamilton (delisted), Tristan Tweedie (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Dale Morris, Zaine Cordy, Easton Wood
HB: Jason Johannisen, Jackson Trengove, Matt Suckling
C: Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Luke Dahlhaus
HF: Bailey Dale, Tom Boyd, Toby McLean
F: Liam Picken, Josh Schache, Josh Dunkley
Foll: Jordan Roughead, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae
Inter: Mitch Wallis, Caleb Daniel, Hayden Crozier, Lewis Young
Emerg: Marcus Adams, Jack Redpath, Shane Biggs

THE PROGNOSIS
Premiership hangover is a term which is used far too frequently in AFL football, but in the modern era, what happened to the Western Bulldogs in 2017 is as good an example as we’ve seen for a long time.

Not that it was immediately obvious. After seven games, the Bulldogs, having just beaten eventual premier Richmond, were 5-2, exactly the same scoreline they’d been at the same stage of 2016, but without having shown nearly the same sort of pizzazz.

And from there, they’d lose 9 of their last 15, the first reigning premier to miss the following year’s finals since Hawthorn in 2009.

The tell-tale signs of the erosion of that flag-winning ferocity at the contest were everywhere, particularly on an individual level, where it could be argued that of their top 30 players, perhaps only Bailey Dale, Toby McLean and Caleb Daniel managed to improve on their previous seasons.

And the disappearance of that intensity across the board led to drop-offs all over the place. The Dogs won less of the ball and kept it locked in their forward line a lot less, exposing their vulnerable defence, their points against ranking consequently slipping from third to eighth.

When the ball got near goals, the worst conversion rate in the competition proved a fatal flaw. Joint leading goalkickers Jake Stringer and Liam Picken kicked just 24 each, just on half what the top two had shared the year before. And the roll of the dice on veteran key forward Travis Cloke proved a bust.

What does that mean for 2018? That while you can talk about issues of structure and personnel, a more fundamental focus has to be simply recapturing that manic pressure on the opposition, which not only served the Dogs so well, but Richmond subsequently. By doing so, those other areas may well take care of themselves.

Having said that, there’s a bit to like about the Bulldogs’ “ins” this season. Defensively, Jackson Trengove could be a real value pick-up in an area the Dogs haven’t necessarily had a lot of strength.

Hayden Crozier has been used all over the place by Fremantle, but his best value to the Dogs could come off half-back, where his delivery by foot had proved useful.

And Josh Schache, for all the flak he’s copped about attitude, was a No.2 draft pick only two years ago whose first season in Brisbane was pretty handy. If Tom Boyd is to spend more time as a key forward, along with Jack Redpath, the Dogs won’t be short of marking targets. Good news, considering Stringer, Cloke and Stewart Crameri are no longer part of the mix.

Their departures, along with the retirements of Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd, have certainly made a different to the list demographics, the Dogs now the fifth-youngest and fourth least-experienced list in the AFL.

It’s easy, however, to forget just how good so many of those young Dogs were in 2016. While much focus has been on Tom Liberatore, big years also from Jason Johannisen, Lachie Hunter and even still relatively unheralded types such as Josh Dunkley and Shane Biggs, could see the Dogs back in contention as quickly as they slipped from it.

THE PREDICTION
9th. The extent to which the fall-off from a flag has really stung Whitten Oval will determine the Dogs’ fortunes. Good enough to get there, might just miss.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:53 pm

ESSENDON
2017 record: 12 wins, 11 losses (8th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 8th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 11th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 11th

THE INS
Devon Smith (GWS), Adam Saad (Gold Coast), Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs), Jordan Houlahan (Sturt), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Sturt), Matt Guelfi (Claremont), Trent Mynott (Eastern Ranges), Luke Lavender (South Australia)

THE OUTS
Craig Bird (delisted), Yestin Eades (retired), Heath Hocking (delisted), Ben Howlett (delisted), James Kelly (retred), Alex Morgan (delisted/North Melbourne), Brent Stanton (retired), Jobe Watson (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Martin Gleeson, Cale Hooker, Patrick Ambrose
HB: Adam Saad, Michael Hurley, Conor McKenna
C: Dyson Heppell, Andrew McGrath, David Zaharakis
HF: Devon Smith, James Stewart, Orazio Fantasia
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Joe Daniher, Jake Stringer
Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Brendon Goddard, Zach Merrett
Inter: Darcy Parish, David Myers, Travis Colyer, Josh Begley
Emerg: Kyle Langford, Aaron Francis, Jayden Laverde

THE PROGNOSIS
It would be an understatement to say there’s been a fair bit of hype over the off-season surrounding a team which ultimately limped into last year’s finals and was dumped straight out again in an elimination final thrashing. Can Essendon actually back it up?

Much of the excitement has centred around the arrival of three seasoned senior players – Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad. How much that trio will add to areas in which the Bombers have been most deficient is the interesting question.

Saad was a dashing half-back at Gold Coast, Stringer and Smith primarily ground-level goalkickers in forward lines at Western Bulldogs and GWS. All ooze talent. But Essendon’s biggest shortfall for a long time now has been in midfield.

To that end, Stringer and Smith have spent much of the pre-season training in midfield groups. The former’s strong frame and sharp reflexes, and Smith’s ball-winning ability should help. In AFL midfield terms, however, both are on “L plates”.

They’ll need to be quick learners. Because as potent as the Dons’ forward set-up is now, a distinct lack of midfield competitiveness remains costly, not to mention putting a backline with some question marks under even more pressure.

When Essendon had the ball last year, it was damaging. But there was a lot of one-way traffic, John Worsfold’s team just 15th for contested possession and 14th for clearances on the differentials, and conceding the fifth-most inside 50s, high indeed for a finalist.

Besides Stringer and Smith, the Dons would love another big year from Andrew McGrath, set to take on more responsibility, more from the big-bodied but injury-plagued David Myers, and their investment in another strong body, Kyle Langford, to start paying off.

Put that alongside the outside work of Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis, Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish, and Essendon would go a long way towards a midfield contingent which can mix it with the best.

Should the Bombers win a better share of midfield ball, however, there’s plenty about which to be optimistic.

Joe Daniher is the prize asset near goal, but Cale Hooker and James Stewart are quality support in the air, and Orazio Fantasia and the excitement machine Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti terriers at ground level. All can convert, Essendon climbing from last to third on that measure last season.

Hooker staying forward (and Footyology, admittedly, isn’t a huge fan of the idea, preferring him at full-back in our best 22) does put more heat on the key defenders, though, both Michael Hartley and Patrick Ambrose required to show more competitiveness against bigger-bodied opponents than they have previously.

Again, the amount of pressure under which they are placed will be determined, largely, by the support they can muster from further afield. It’s a considerable “if”, but the benefits will be felt by the Bombers everywhere, none the least on the win-loss tally.

THE PREDICTION
8th. Could easily be higher, but as a midfield group, the Bombers have a fair bit of catching up to do. One to watch, but still with reservations.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:53 pm

GEELONG
2017 record: 16 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw (3rd)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 4th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 7th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 9th

THE INS
Gary Ablett (Gold Coast), Lachlan Fogarty (Western Jets), Tim Kelly (South Fremantle), Charlie Constable (Sandringham Dragons), Gryan Miers (Geelong Falcons), Stewart Crameri (Western Bulldogs)

THE OUTS
Andrew Mackie (retired), Tom Lonergan (retired), Josh Cowan (delisted), Tom Ruggles (delisted), Steven Motlop (Port Adelaide), Darcy Lang (Carlton)

THE BEST 22
B: Jake Kolodjashnij, Lachie Henderson, Jed Bews
HB: Tom Stewart, Harry Taylor, Zach Tuohy
C: Sam Menegola, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan
HF: Mark Blicavs, Stewart Crameri, Nakia Cockatoo
F: Daniel Menzel, Tom Hawkins, Brandan Parfitt
Foll: Zac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett
Inter: Scott Selwood, Cam Guthrie, Cory Gregson, Lincoln McCarthy
Emerg: Zach Guthrie, Rhys Stanley, Jordan Murdoch

THE PROGNOSIS
No discussion of Geelong’s prospects in 2018 can escape a heavy emphasis on the Cats’ “terrific trio” of Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett, a midfield dream team if ever there was one.

Each have been at some stage of the past decade close to if not the best player in the competition. The prospect of them working as one collective leading a midfield group is for Geelong mouth-watering.

Can there be a downside? Could so much of the spotlight being shone in the trio’s direction inhibit the growth of the support cast, or at least deprive them of the chance to take on more responsibility, thus a more even spreading of the load?

Geelong would argue strongly not, and with some justification. As good as Dangerfield and Selwood were for the Cats again last season, it’s not like they were merely a duet, fellow midfielders Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola finishing second and sixth respectively in the best and fairest.

Throw in Scott Selwood, Cam Guthrie and a readymade-looking mature age recruit in Tim Kelly and you have a decent-sized midfield rotation. So why not more bullish about Geelong in 2018?

First, we’re a little worried about their backline, primarily, and specifically the impact of the loss of the retired Tom Lonergan and Andrew Mackie.

While Harry Taylor’s move back to defence in light of those retirements is a given, and while he and Lachie Henderson are more than handy key backmen, is there enough support around them?

Jake Kolodjashnij and Jed Bews are still a little underrated, and Zac Tuohy and Tom Stewart offer terrific run and rebound off half-back, but how stretched is Geelong going to be if even one of Henderson or Taylor in particular go down?

There’s only nine players on the Cats’ list officially classified as permanent defenders; that’s to fewer than any other team. And that’s a concern.

Another slight reservation remains how dramatically Geelong’s performance falls away when their intensity drops even slightly.

And that was notable even in a year the Cats played off for a grand final spot, most notably in three straight losses to Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon in the first half of last season, but also in their last three defeats – by 46 points against Sydney, and in two finals losses by 51 and 61 points.

Up forward, Geelong scores efficiently enough, though there’s still the question of support for key forward Tom Hawkins.

It’s the capacity of an import like Stewart Crameri, and three injury-afflicted smaller types in Nakia Cockatoo, Lincoln McCarthy and Cory Gregson to get some continuity then goals on the board which could make Geelong a lot more formidable still.

There’s no question Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett are going to be a formidable force. They, however, remain three players in a 22-man side. And you only have to look at the last two premiers to realise just how important now is an even contribution across an entire team, not just the star class.

THE PREDICTION
7th. Enormous talent at the top end. Does it run quite deep enough to take on the absolute best couple of teams in the competition? That is the question.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:54 pm

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
2017 record: 15 wins, 8 losses, 2 draws (4th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 3rd
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 5th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 10th

THE INS
Lachie Keeffe (Collingwood), Dylan Buckley (Carlton), Aiden Bonar (Dandenong Stingrays), Brent Daniels (Bendigo Pioneers), Sam Taylor (Swan Districts), Zac Giles Langdon (Claremont), Nick Shipley (St George – Sydney AFL), Jack Buckley (UWS Giants)

THE OUTS
Devon Smith (Essendon), Nathan Wilson (Fremantle), Matthew Kennedy (Carlton), Tom Downie (retired), Steve Johnson (retired), Tendai Mzungu (retired), Shane Mumford (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Heath Shaw, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes
HB: Lachie Whitfield, Adam Tomlinson, Ryan Griffen
C: Tom Scully, Callan Ward, Josh Kelly
HF: Brett Deledio, Jeremy Cameron, Matt de Boer
F: Harry Himmelberg, Jonathon Patton, Toby Greene
Foll: Rory Lobb, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio
Inter: Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Daniel Lloyd, Adam Kennedy
Emerg: Dawson Simpson, Aidan Corr, Sam Reid

THE PROGNOSIS
For a while, the Giants were just pups. In 2016, pipped in a preliminary final, they were dead stiff. Last year, they were racked by injuries and still managed to come within one win of a grand final berth.

But entering its seventh year in the AFL competition, it’s fair to say the goodwill towards GWS is in short supply, and even the most reasonable of excuses are no longer going to be cut much slack.

For all their prodigious talent across an entire senior list, there’s some intangible still missing from the GWS mix, exposed most obviously in the preliminary final defeat against eventual premier Richmond.

That was a game in which the Giants were every bit a winning chance, but were ultimately “out-hungered” by a team ravenous for premiership success. And while it’s not necessarily GWS’s fault, can a club full of highly-rated draft stars not immersed in the cauldron of emotion and history of a place like Punt Road have the same insatiable appetite?

At the top end of the AFL, it’s those little things which make a big difference. And one tell-tale statistic about the Giants in 2017 was the fact they won just one of seven games against top-four opponents.

Injuries still aren’t being kind, either. And after losing running defender Nathan Wilson to Fremantle, the subsequent serious achilles injury to his rebounding colleague Zac Williams, potentially out for the season, is a huge blow to a backline which already had a few question marks.

Lachie Whitfield has looked good as a replacement in that space, and it’s also a role veteran Ryan Griffen could fill, fitness permitting. But GWS may be doing some juggling at the other end, too.

Shane Mumford’s retirement leaves either Rory Lobb or Dawson Simpson as the Giants’ ruck option. Given the GWS forward set-up looked cumbersome at times last season, Lobb’s shift away from permanent forward duties may actually be doing the Giants a favour.

Forward pressure was an area in which the Giants haven’t excelled, so a more hard-nosed defensive forward such as Matt de Boer and the very promising Harry Himmelberg might become more integral parts of the GWS line-up than many would have imagined.

All that said, either Lobb or Simpson in the ruck, while lacking Mumford’s physical presence, need only to be competitive, because the glut of midfield talent for the Giants remains impressive indeed

Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully, Whitfield, Brett Deledio, Toby Greene, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto represent a midfield contingent most rivals would kill for.

They’re both silky and hard when they need to be, GWS last season on the differentials ranked first for clearances, second for tackles, second for disposal efficiency and fourth for contested possession.

That the Giants have sufficient talent across the park is not in question. It’s the capacity to have that talent gel more seamlessly across the 22 rather than as a collection of stars which will ultimately determine whether a club which should win a premiership actually does.

THE PREDICTION
6th. Could just as easily be No.1. But there’s a synergy GWS needs to find first which, to this stage, it hasn’t quite managed to do.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
6. GWS
7. GEELONG
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Rik E Boy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:23 pm

I believe Geelong still have many unresolved issues that need to be addressed but probably haven't been. One thing that amuses me though is that our chances are being talked down because of the retirements of Lonners and Mackie. Both of these blokes were running on fumes last year with Lonergan in particular really struggling most weeks. This year Harry goes down back where he belongs to play alongside Kolo, Stewart, Guthrie perhaps, Touhy, Henderson and maybe Blicavs as well. There is marking power and run down back for the Cats that hasn't been there as much in recent years.

Up front we will be looking to Ablett, Gregson and the injury prone Cockatoo to give us a lift in defensive pressure in the forward line. See that's our issue. Our small forwards haven't been getting on the park and we've had to play youngsters like Parsons out of position up there to fill a role. While Parsons would have learnt plenty playing ahead of schedule I'd rather have Gregson in there who was hitting his straps before he got hurt. Ditto Cocky. We need a tackling beast in the forward 50. On the plus side Menzel has trimmed right down and hasn't moved better in years so he could be in for a big year.

We won't finish 7th because veteran defenders have retired, but we might if our small forwards or top liners keep getting hurt. A fit Geelong can still win the flag, even with the dud coach we have. Remember we beat all the six teams rated above us last year and there is no reason why we can't again. With nine games at Cat Park I expect us to make the top four again.

regards,

REB
Last edited by Rik E Boy on Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Rik E Boy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:24 pm

Corona Man wrote:
Rik E Boy wrote:A glut of midfield talent who can't hit the side of a barn. Probably the worst coach in the league as well. No ways the Pies finish 11th I reckon.

regards,

REB


Chatting with my boss this morning about Collingwood, he is a pies fan. Reckons they a dead set ordinary, and the players all love Buckley. Probably as he doesn't ask them any hard questions! Didn't the worst coach in the league "out-coach" Scott last year..... and Clarko for that matter!


Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

regards,

REB
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:01 pm

SYDNEY
2017 record: 15 wins, 9 losses (5th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 7th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 4th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 12th

THE INS
Matthew Ling (Geelong Falcons), Tom McCartin (Geelong Falcons), Ryley Stoddart (Eastern Ranges), Angus Styles (Sandringham Dragons), Joel Amartey (Sandringham Dragons), James Bell (UNSW-ES), Jake Brown (St George – Sydney AFL)

THE OUTS
Kurt Tippett (retired), Sam Murray (Collingwood), Brandon Jack (delisted), Michael Talia (delisted), Tyrone Leonardis (delisted), Shaun Edwards (retired), Jeremy Laidler (retired), Sam Fisher (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Nick Smith, Heath Grundy, Dane Rampe
HB: Jarrad McVeigh, Lewis Melican, Callum Mills
C: Isaac Heeney, Josh Kennedy, Jake Lloyd
HF: Gary Rohan, Lance Franklin, Will Hayward
F: Tom Papley, Sam Reid, Dean Towers
Foll: Callum Sinclair, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker
Inter: Kieren Jack, Nic Newman, Zak Jones, George Hewett
Emerg: Oliver Florent, Harry Cunningham, Aliir Aliir

THE PROGNOSIS
Sydney’s 2017 season represented one of the starkest contrasts of fortunes the modern game has seen.

From a hapless 0-6 and bottom of the ladder, the Swans proceeded to win just about every week, 14 of their remaining 16 home and away games (the two defeats by only a goal), then a 65-point rout of Essendon in the elimination final, before bowing out at the hands of Geelong the following week.

In hindsight, the early malaise had much to do with the absence of key personnel in all areas of the ground, Isaac Heeney, Dane Rampe, Tom Papley, Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh’s injuries particularly costly.

Up and running again, they made an enormous difference, particularly to the hard-ball indicators on which the Swans have always prided themselves, Sydney 17th for contested ball during that barren opening to the season, top three subsequently.

Even the early malaise had an upside, though, Sydney coach John Longmire blooding another crop of kids. Over the past two seasons, the Swans have debuted no fewer than 13 youngsters, almost as many as North Melbourne or Brisbane, and unusual for a team still near the top of the ladder.

Whilst Sydney goes into the 2018 season with the fourth most-experienced list in the competition, it’s only seventh in terms of age, and will have (including rookies) 23 of 45 players who have played just 20 AFL games or less, at least eight of whom could argue persuasively that they deserve a spot in the Swans’ best 22.

Will Hayward was the standout of the “newbies” in 2017, Oliver Florent, too, looks promising, but Sydney has been able to get consistent improvement also from players who have already been on the list several years, Dean Towers a good example.

One spanner in the works already is ruckman Sam Naismith’s season-ending knee injury, leaving Callum Sinclair to shoulder the load with some help from Sam Reid. But there is at least another ruckman on the list, though, in draftee Darcy Cameron, another base potentially covered.

It’s tremendous list engineering and ensures that this perennial finals competitor isn’t likely to be leaving the upper echelons of the ladder any time soon.

But character is perhaps Sydney’s greatest strength. That 0-6 start to last year was bad enough to have torpedoed a lesser club’s entire season, with morale and confidence low indeed.

Instead, the Swans finished the year with very respectable numbers across the board. Most remarkably, they were ranked No.1 for fewest points conceded, and as much as the midfield group is feted for its depth and class, that in itself is testament to the important of their backline.

It’s no great surprise that part of the ground contains four of Sydney’s 10 most experienced players in Jarrad McVeigh, Heath Grundy, Nick Smith and Dane Rampe. But the half-back rebounding positions have also proved great launching pads for longer senior careers, Callum Mills just the latest example.

In attack, Lance Franklin continues to play brilliant, potent football, Reid looks ready to deliver his best consistently, and Tom Papley’s value as a goalkicking, pressure-applying small forward is still somewhat underrated.

It’s an impressive mix of experience, youth and talent, and after last year’s Lazarus effort, the rest of the competition will rightly be anxious about what Sydney can achieve with a decent start this time.

THE PREDICTION
5th. The Swans will be in the race for a top four berth right up to their necks. Others’ highs might be more spectacular, but Sydney’s consistency of effort is hard to beat.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
5. SYDNEY
6. GWS
7. GEELONG
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby bennymacca » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:06 pm

So they have crows port Richmond and Melbourne in the top four. Interesting
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:10 pm

bennymacca wrote:So they have crows port Richmond and Melbourne in the top four. Interesting


Yep, I'm thinking Melbourne 4, Port 3, Richmond 2, Adelaide 1.

I've been waiting for Melbourne to pop up.
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:39 am

MELBOURNE
2017 record: 12 wins, 10 losses (9th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 9th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 13th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 14th

THE INS
Jake Lever (Adelaide), Harley Balic (Fremantle), Charlie Spargo (Murray Bushrangers), Bayley Fritsch (Casey Demons), Harrison Petty (Norwood), Oskar Baker (Aspley)

THE OUTS
Jack Watts (Port Adelaide), Jack Trengove (delisted/Port Adelaide), Heritier Lumumba (retired), Liam Hulett (delisted), Jake Spencer (delisted), Mitch White (delisted), Ben Kennedy (delisted), Colin Garland (retired)

THE BEST 22
B: Jordan Lewis, Jake Lever, Neville Jetta
HB: Michael Hibberd, Oscar McDonald, Jayden Hunt
C: Dom Tyson, Jack Viney, Bernie Vince
HF: Christian Petracca, Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham
F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Mitch Hannan
Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver
Inter: Christian Salem, Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes, Alex Neal-Bullen
Emerg: Cam Pedersen, Sam Frost, Tomas Bugg

THE PROGNOSIS
It’s easy to get carried away with a young side on the improve and overstate their potential. But Melbourne’s return to the big stage has been a long time in the making. And all the indications are that the Demons, in 2018, are more than ready.

Really, Simon Goodwin’s team should have played finals last year. Its final-round choke at the hands of Collingwood and West Coast’s last-gasp heroics in Perth against Adelaide still stick in the guts of many Demons. Perhaps, though, that’s just another reason this is the time.

Immaturity proved costly in the end last season, not just in the Collingwood game, but in defeats to North Melbourne (twice), Fremantle and Hawthorn (when the Hawks were at their lowest ebb). But the positives from 2017 carry more weight.

Melbourne, from quarter to quarter, won a lot more than it lost last year, the Demons winning 49 quarters in total, only Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Sydney with more. Its scalps included those of four finalists, including a trouncing of top team the Crows on their own patch.

It has a midfield bursting with young talent still on the improve, and in equal measures tough and skilful. It has an All-Australian ruckman in Max Gawn ready to return to his stellar 2016 levels after an injury-plagued year.

It has a potent forward set-up likely to be improved further with the emergence of Tom McDonald as a strong, powerful marking force near goal. And in an already impressive defence, it now has one of the best intercept marks in the caper in former Crow Jake Lever.

His combination with a tremendous trio of rebound runners in Michael Hibberd, Jayden Hunt and Neville Jetta looms as a major weapon for Goodwin, along with the luxury of being able to play a smart customer like Jordan Lewis back there with the emergence of other midfield stars.

In attack, while the Demons were only the seventh-highest scoring team of 2017, it won’t take much to improve that ranking substantially.

After a horror year filled with serious illness, injury and personal tragedy, spearhead Jesse Hogan is again ready to roll. And McDonald’s transition from defence to attack, already successful, could pay season-long dividends this year.

Jeff Garlett is a terrific small pressure forward, Mitch Hannan has the potential to go to another level, and Christian Petracca and Jake Melksham are just two of Melbourne’s midfield types just as dangerous when used as goalkicking forwards.

The Demons had seven players kick 20 goals or more last season. Only grand finalists Adelaide boasted a higher figure. And that number could also improve substantially should the likes of Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Dom Tyson start hitting the scoreboard even a little harder.

All the pieces of the puzzle now seem to fit right. And five seasons after Paul Roos inherited a list at rock-bottom, his successor as coach Goodwin, having added his own twists and flourish of an exciting, quick-running handball-based style, is like everyone at a long-suffering club, set to reap the rewards.

THE PREDICTION
4th. The talent is there, the game plan and coaching are good, and the disappointment of the end to last season provides the motivation for Melbourne to have a serious crack at 2018.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
4. MELBOURNE
5. SYDNEY
6. GWS
7. GEELONG
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby LMA » Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:34 pm

When I click on team to read, nothing happens ;)
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Re: 2018 AFL Ladder predictions

Postby Booney » Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:07 pm

RICHMOND
2017 record: 18 wins, 7 losses (1st)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 12th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 10th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): 16th

THE INS
Jack Higgins (Oakleigh Chargers), Callum Coleman-Jones (Sturt), Noah Balta (Calder Cannons), Patrick Naish (Northern Knights), Ben Miller (Subiaco), Liam Baker (Subiaco), Derek Eggmolesse-Smith (Richmond VFL)

THE OUTS
Chris Yarran (retired), Ivan Maric (retired), Ben Griffiths (retired), Steven Morris (delisted), Todd Elton (delisted), Taylor Hunt (delisted), Ben Lennon (delisted), Jake Batchelor (delisted)

THE BEST 22
B: Nick Vlastuin, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes
HB: Bachar Houli, David Astbury, Brandon Ellis
C: Shaun Grigg, Dustin Martin, Daniel Rioli
HF: Shane Edwards, Jack Riewoldt, Kane Lambert
F: Jacob Townsend, Josh Caddy, Dan Butler
Foll: Toby Nankervis, Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia
Inter: Jason Castagna, Kamdyn McIntosh, Jack Graham, Shai Bolton
Emerg: Nathan Broad, Conor Menadue, Reece Conca

THE PROGNOSIS
Perception is a powerful thing in football, and so, six months after it happened, there’s still a sizeable army of sceptics struggling with the concept of Richmond as reigning AFL premier despite the Tigers’ achievements and the catalogue of evidence to back them up.

Richmond’s mediocre 2016 season proved an aberration, not the norm. The Tigers had been finalists three years in a row before, twice with 15 wins, and with some tweaking to the game plan in 2017, an embracing of the positives and the ramping up of pressure to a level previously unseen, reached even greater heights.

But the scepticism now will be about the Tigers’ capacity to hold that status in a season with any number of would-be challengers to the throne, and the example of their predecessor as premier, the Western Bulldogs, held up as the obvious danger tale.

Similarly to the Dogs, it’s hunger and drive from within as much as any rival that will prove Richmond’s greatest obstacle in 2018. Because the more tangible indicators still stack up in the Tigers’ favour.

The drought-breaking flag was one built on intense physical pressure on the opposition. That pressure has certainly shown no sign of abating in the Tigers’ two JLT Series hit-outs against Essendon and North Melbourne.

What took Richmond from merely one of the leading pack to late last season an out-and-out leader, however, was its capacity to score from the turnovers that pressure forced.

The Tigers had topped the 100-point mark only four times in their first 20 games of 2017. They did it four times in their last five, and scored 91 points in the other game. Scores of 124 and 128 points against the Bombers and Roos in the last two weeks indicate there’s to be no letting up on that front, either.

Theirs is also still a young and improving list. Richmond will go into 2018 ranked only the 12th oldest combination in the AFL and in terms of games played, only the 10th most experienced.

Much has been spoken about the improvement of the Tigers’ second-tier players last year. But even the cream at the top is still undersold a little. As terrific as they are, it’s not just about Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt. Throw in Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy, and Richmond has four starting midfielders who were all originally top 10 draft picks.

And the Tigers’ forward set-up based around one hard-working key forward in Riewoldt, a couple of adaptable medium-sizers and two or three ground-level terriers like Dan Butler, Jason Castagna and Daniel Rioli, far from being makeshift, looks more likely to become standard among those trying to emulate Richmond’s success.

Hunger? Well, there’s plenty of depth, the likes of Shai Bolton, exciting draftee Jack Higgins, Reece Conca and Conor Menadue just a sample of those banging on the door of the best 22. And another reason last year’s fairytale can be not just a one-off, but the start of something which will continue for some time yet.

THE PREDICTION
3rd. Right in the flag mix again. No shortage of other worthy contenders, but if the Tigers haven’t lost any of their ferocity, they’ll be very hard to toss.

THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
3. RICHMOND
4. MELBOURNE
5. SYDNEY
6. GWS
7. GEELONG
8. ESSENDON
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
10. HAWTHORN
11. COLLINGWOOD
12. ST KILDA
13. WEST COAST
14. NORTH MELBOURNE
15. BRISBANE
16. CARLTON
17. FREMANTLE
18. GOLD COAST
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