How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 12:49 pm

this would come under How not to Gamble

on another forum im on for punting

a user has $10k betting bank

he is currently losing just over a $1k leaving a balance of $9k in round figures

myself and another have told him he needs to set up accounts with corporates for deposit bonuses etc

now for whatever reason he refuses to do so

perhaps his bank is just monopoly money
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Fri Jul 11, 2014 12:55 pm

Bonus whoring as it's called. Great way to get added value.

Used to do it all the time with poker sites but the market had tightened lately and basically no sites offer them anymore. I also have accounts at most of them lol
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Trader » Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:54 pm

I've done plenty of gambling over the last 12 or so years. Really enjoy it.

Started back in about 2004 when I got some info from a mate that Gavin Wanganeen was going to pull out of our game against the roos at the dome. I think Damon White and Brad Symes both played their debuts that game. Anyway, long story short, went down to the pub, had to get the barman to show me how to use the tab. Put $50 on the roos at $2.10 and another $20 on them over 39.5, paid $6ish from memory.
The roos went on to win by 91pts (I think), I've been hooked ever since!

Joined a footy forum shortly after that, started punting on games, hit a few winning streaks and started to take it a bit more seriously. Was making money but nothing serious.

In Oct 2005 I joined a new site by the name of Betfair.
Was getting crazy prices. The lions won in Perth vs the Eagles. The bookies paid $4.25 and I got $8.50 on Betfair. I was loving it.

I was just punting and starting to develop some systems to go with just my judgement.
The best system I had was "Last week loser vs Last week winner". Back the loser at the line this week. - Basically worked on the theory that punters overreact to the previous results. I was profitable, hitting around the 57% mark.

Punting was profitable but I was becoming more interested in the theory of betting, market percentages, arbitrage, etc.
Was going through uni at the time so had plenty of spare time, and was willing to chase the coin.
I'm a numbers man, always have been (Did Engineering at Uni and also did a finance degree as a side interest). So it came naturally to me I guess.

Learnt to trade (hence the name trader) and started to make a reasonable amount doing so.

While trading / monitoring my positions, I started to kill time by playing online poker.
Never deposited into an account, but pulled out plenty of reasonable amounts over a two-or-so year period.
Playing free-rolls, and bonus whoring were the keys. Whenever I needed to withdraw from an account I would just chip dump to a mate who had real accounts. Certainly not massive money, but for a side interest it was buying a few cartons of beer a month.

However, where I started to strike gold was back on betfair in what I refer to as "cross-marketting". This was a gold mine. Could easily lay 103%, after commission. Was getting huge turnover too, so picked up plenty of betfair points, dropping my commission rate and opening up further opportunities to cross market.

Markets became tighter and tighter (used to be able to offer 104% in H2H, now that's 100.5% at best), and Betfair brought in the dreaded "premium charge". Continued doing it a bit after that, but gave up about 18 months ago. I also finished uni and got a "real job" over that time so had less time / willingness / need to do it at the end of a work week so it was certainly an easier decision to give it away.

Still jump on betfair every now and then to trade bigger events (state of origin, brownlow medal market, AFL Grand Final week, etc), but basically would only consider myself a recreational punter now days.

Have started to move into live poker. You'll now see me in at Sky City on average 2 nights a weekend. I'm not a gun, but can confidently say I beat the rake plus a bit of pocket money. Still refining my game, but starting to get to a point that I can rely on Poker providing me a bit of splash cash for the week, not to mention 2 nights entertainment each week.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:15 am

good post.

fair chance i have played poker against you at some point in time
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Hefty » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:43 am

How not to Gamble........this is how I normally roll at SkyCity.

Walk/stumble into SkyCity with a couple of gorillas in the sky rocket brimming with confidence. Find a seat at a $10 BlackJack table (being the high roller that I am) and exchange said gorillas for a handful of chips. Starting with the minimum wager and if I continue to win I will double the initial bet on the next hand until I lose a hand, then back to minimum chips. But when I start losing this is when "Gamblor Hefty" comes out......I will blame the dealer for rigging the cards or abuse the f*cktard at the end of the table for taking a picture when he is sitting on 16 and the dealer has a 5.

This is normally when security comes over and tells me to calm down or they will happily evict me (did receive a 6 month ban from SkyCity once - never saved so much money). After dropping $200 in 15 minutes it's off to the cashier to withdraw another $200 - I normally repeat this step 2-3 times per SkyCity visit.

The morning after........wake up to find the money in my wallet has been replaced by 3 ATM slips with the following withdrawal times 11.50pm, 12.31am and 1.14am!!!
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Johno6 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:56 am

I feel like I wrote that post myself.

well said
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Booney » Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:35 pm

Hefty wrote:How not to Gamble........this is how I normally roll at SkyCity.

Walk/stumble into SkyCity with a couple of gorillas in the sky rocket brimming with confidence. Find a seat at a $10 BlackJack table (being the high roller that I am) and exchange said gorillas for a handful of chips. Starting with the minimum wager and if I continue to win I will double the initial bet on the next hand until I lose a hand, then back to minimum chips. But when I start losing this is when "Gamblor Hefty" comes out......I will blame the dealer for rigging the cards or abuse the f*cktard at the end of the table for taking a picture when he is sitting on 16 and the dealer has a 5.

This is normally when security comes over and tells me to calm down or they will happily evict me (did receive a 6 month ban from SkyCity once - never saved so much money). After dropping $200 in 15 minutes it's off to the cashier to withdraw another $200 - I normally repeat this step 2-3 times per SkyCity visit.

The morning after........wake up to find the money in my wallet has been replaced by 3 ATM slips with the following withdrawal times 11.50pm, 12.31am and 1.14am!!!


Then go to The Palace, at least I'll get something for my money there....
PAFC. Forever.

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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:09 pm

PTP
Was the initials I used in my opening thread post


PUNTERS THAT LOSE
I've heard a plethora of punters who complain about being born losers, having no luck , being poor students of gambling , undisciplined etc etc
I've heard a lot a lot a lot a lot a lot a lot a lot of reasons why punters lose
ALL of those reasons are basically absolute crapp
I kid you not
Losing punters mostly ONLY lose because the percentages are stacked against them

The best example is a toss of the coin
HEAD : $2-00
TAIL : $2-00
You toss a hundred times , it should be 50 heads v 50 tails
That's called 100% percentage
After 100 by $1 tosses you should be even according to the law of probability

Lets make Head and Tail a sports game
Sports bookies will bet something like
HEAD : $1-90
TAIL : $1-90
After 100 games you back 50 winners , according to probability
You have invested $100 of $1 bets
Your return is $95 ,
A loss of $5

Imagine if the Bookies were sporting blokes and bet you this
HEAD $2-10
TAIL $2-10
After 100 games you back 50 winners , according to probability
You have invested $100 of $1 bets
Your return is $105
A win of $5

Imagine a casino betting you $2-10 Black or Red , and money back for a Green Zeros


What I'm trying to say is if anyone gives you $2-10 for a toss of a coin
Eventually whether it be short term to long term , MOST people will and must win

This is what PTP means
PLAY
THE
PERCENTAGES
Understand this concept , you should be able to minimize losings and even extenuate winnings

I will give more examples in due course
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:24 pm

$2-00 a aoss of the coin is not always successfool though
Some peole can beat the odds, beat the percentages and somehow win
This is an incredible yarn of a lad well known in the Western suburbs of Adelaide
Yobbo was his nickname , and still is

Yobbo was popular with the young ladies ,his strike rate scoring sheilas was amazing
He dressed well and virtually had the opposite sex eating out of his hand
Geez he could pull some ripper babes

Whenever we escorted Yobbo around Adelaide night clubs , we invariably had coin tosses
The standard would be $10 tosses
Ive yet to see a luckier head and tail winner
He had little concept of percentages
And we devised a plan to win off this lucky prick , but kept faaaaarkin losing to him

We used to give him 22/10 winning consecutive tosses
He would have mostly a tenner on , win 2 in a row and collect $32
He would get the double up often , and would clean us up
We always thought we would wear him down, but didn't

WHAT WAS YOBBO DOING WRONG BUT STILL WINNING ?
We bet him 22/10 to win to win 2 in a row [$3-20]
The real odds off winning 2 in a row is 3/1[$4-00]

Yes for $10 he was collecting $32 and not $40 !!!!
His thinking was 2 tosses = 2/1 [$3-00] and we were betting overs at 22/10 [$3-20]

Yes some punters can accept under the odds but though LUCK can still win
They are a rarity in gambling circles
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:32 pm

RECREATIONAL PUNTER

Taxi Ted
This punter is well known at race tracks and casinos
He is a self confessed loser
He did make one lovely comment I've not been able to forget

At Globe Derby one night , Taxi Ted had a chat to myself and former SAFOOTY poster Bayman
He made this everlasting comment to us
" I've dun a million dollars gambling , but where else could I have had the entertainment its given me."
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How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:14 pm

mal wrote:RECREATIONAL PUNTER

Taxi Ted
This punter is well known at race tracks and casinos
He is a self confessed loser
He did make one lovely comment I've not been able to forget

At Globe Derby one night , Taxi Ted had a chat to myself and former SAFOOTY poster Bayman
He made this everlasting comment to us
" I've dun a million dollars gambling , but where else could I have had the entertainment its given me."


It would take me years to list all of the things that would be better than losing a million

Classic rationalisation of a degenerate that probably gambled his whole families lives away
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Trader » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:18 pm

mal wrote:WHAT WAS YOBBO DOING WRONG BUT STILL WINNING ?
We bet him 22/10 to win to win 2 in a row [$3-20]
The real odds off winning 2 in a row is 3/1[$4-00]

Yes for $10 he was collecting $32 and not $40 !!!!
His thinking was 2 tosses = 2/1 [$3-00] and we were betting overs at 22/10 [$3-20]


Reminds me back in the day I had a similar "scam" going.

$10 even money bet.
I'd give you a dice and give you 3 chances to roll a 6. As soon as you roll a 6, I pay you $10. If you fail on all 3 attempts, you give me the tenner. Seems fair right?

Actually, I'm a 57.9% chance to win.

Sure, it's not a massive advantage, but it's a good bit of fun.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:20 am

TRIFECTAS

I'm sick to death hearing about hard luck trifecta stories
You hear it at the track
You hear it in the TABS
You now hear it from net punters

Here is a very recent example of a punter from the western suburbs punter known as Slim
Slim just loves to punt , and then is remorseful, scornful and a bloody fool , when he loses
His penchant is for Trifecta punting
Anyhows Slim is complaining about this and that he has forever bad luck

I had this to say to Slim, went something like this:
" Slim don't tell me about bad luck, you gotta make your own luck
Taking trifecta's , you don't deserve any luck at all."
He politely asked why
" The TAB pinches close to 20 % of the pot in commissions , so you start with that 20% behind."
Put it this way , imagine this, your playing poker at the Casino
20 players put in $50 each blind for a Poker hand
there is $1,000 in the pot
a Casino staff member takes out $200 from the pot and leaves $800, what would you do?"
Slim says he would play the hand, and then walk out
" That 's what happens in Trifecta pools." I say to him

This is not to say you cant win taking Trifecta's
Its your knowledge, or whatever, in a pool v the other punters who contribute
But about 20% is a massive start to give , for all players in any pool
Only an inordinate knowledge , or above average luck will net you a profit in Trifectas
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Stumps » Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:35 am

the other thing that annoys me about a trifecta is when people say I nearly won a massive divi on the trifecta/ quaddy/whatever, what they dont tell you is the 1 horse they chose different to the result was actually the favourite meaning if it had run a place/won the trifecta div sould have been sweetFA.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:20 am

Also, in a 10 horse race, there are 720 permutations of horses, or possible trifectas, and only 90 quinellas.

So when someone says they got 2/3, just say congrats, you were 1/8th of the way there :)
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby Ecky » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:13 pm

A basic key to winning at gambling is to identify the markets where you have a particular skill or knowledge that is greater than whoever you are competing against, and the advantage you have needs to be significant enough to overcome and commissions or percentage added to the markets.

Many examples:

1) Bennymacca and Nate Silver won at poker because they understand the game significantly better than the average player they play against
2) Trader won on Betfair because he knew how to exploit anomalies in the markets
3) David Walsh's syndicate won millions on horse racing because they developed incredibly sophisticated models well before any bookmakers or other punters even considered doing this
4) I know people who consistently win at harness racing because they study the form much more closely than any bookmaker does, and use sophisticated methods to set their own markets.
5) The Sportspunter AFL models consistently win because the guy behind them has been constantly developing them for over 10 years and has a strong mathematical background
6) I know people who are consistent winners on local events like the SANFL and state elections because these are niche markets that the bookies don't put much effort into, so if you have a good understanding of these, it isn't hard to find a lot of value.
7) Mal wins because he knows every losing gambler in Adelaide, so he has learnt exactly what NOT to do!

But the most important skill that all consistent winners have in common is a strong mathematical background. If you don't have a good understanding of the probabilities involved in whatever game you are playing, you will never be able to fully exploit whatever advantage in knowledge you have over your competitors.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby bennymacca » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:19 pm

yeah thats a pretty fair assessment.
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:30 pm

MULTIPLES
Fourtrellas, Trebles, Doubles
Sport Multis , All Up bets racing codes

SPORTS MULTIPLES
I will start with Sports Multiples , we already have a thread in the gambling room covering this
The attraction, sMALl outlay
BIG collects
Nothing wrong with this philosophy
But I need to be as practicable as possible
Its a trap

EXAMPLE 4 LEG SPORTS MULTI
A ; $1-50
B $3-00
C $1-90
D $1-06
Odds $9.06
We have 1 apparent cert
I value pick
And 2 other favs
Good value on face value, or is it ?

I think its a fun way to bet, but I very RARELY bet like this
I'm like a lot of punters , I will get 3 legs up , and not 4 !

%
Each match with the bookie you bet with will be assessed at approximately 105%
That means you lose 5% per Multi leg
a 4 leg multi= 20 % supposed margin for the bookie , or more to the point a 20% disadvantage to the punter

QUESTION ?
Why would I think its better to back each team individually and have 4 bets, instead of 1 multi ?
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mighty_tiger_79 » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:44 pm

the same reason why people take doubles/trebles/fourtrellas??
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Re: How to Gamble/How not to Gamble

Postby mal » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:46 pm

Here's a very recent story of a larger than life , very well known punter from the Southern suburbs

SANFL MULTI
To protect the innocent I will name him as the Elephant Man
EM took a multi round 11 SANFL
I reckon he took 3 or 4 legs, I was not taking much interest
He was stiff he only missed 1 leg , he told me
He missed the $1-06 fav Port Reserves v West Adelaide [that was the first leg]
And off course the old how unlucky he was diatribe

EM you fool ?
I say this to everyone that misses out on a $1-06 fav in any multi
Why put them in ?

This might have been what EM took , as I never found out the actual bet, but I know the way he bets
EM got 3 legs up
The odds are say $3-00
By putting in Port Reserves the odds inflated out to a ma$$ive $3-18 :roll:
Imagine this
you invest $100
3 legs =$300 return
PR included = $318 return

Yes a risk of $300 for $18
Sheesh !

I ask one very basic question to anyone who misses multis like this
Would they ever put $300 on a $1-06 fav as a single bet ?
The answer I nearly always get is : NO
I then say
" So why put it in a multi you ... :butthead: ???? "
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