SA Footy

yo beautiful people!

i was just after a bit of advice on what the US dollar will be doing over the next few days/weeks/months? i know theres some people on here that will know a sh!tload more than me about this, and was just wondering what i should be doing.

i'm heading over to the US of A early next year. i've got some cash saved, which i deliberatly didnt get exchanged yet in pure hope the $ would do what it has done, go up. back then, it was at aroun .80-.81, now, according to my homepage, it's just a smidgen under .89!!

so is there anyone out there with a decent financial head that can tell mw what is expected to happen? should i hold off for a bit longer, or get it exchanged now?

any (sensible) input would be greatly appreciated!!

Saw a report on "Today" yesterday (or the day before) that the $US is so shaky that we may see the Aussie $ climb to about $1.05.

So you're choosing a good time to go

PM sent

<grizzle>
I spent most of last year watching the dollar climb higher and higher against the greenback, almost reaching parity, 'coz I had to go to California in November.

Then the bloody US sub-prime mortgage crisis exploded, and the arse dropped right out of the AUD. During the period I was over there it managed to get as low as US 60c. At near-parity the USA would have been very, very cheap. At 60c it was bloody expensive.

The American economy had basically reamed itself with a great big economic dildo, yet the Australian dollar is the one that suffers. Is there any logic to this? Some fat cats in America made an absolute MINT by selling dodgy debts to Norwegian investors, sending millions to the poorhouse and crippling the American economy - yet the US dollar soars against the South Pacific Peso. Does this make any sense at all?

It's times like this I wish the commies had won the cold war.
</grizzle>

(edit)
footnote: In the not too distant future I am heading over to France. Expect the Euro to climb sharply in the next few weeks....

Ill add my grizzle, we went to the US in 2001 when the US$ was 0.51 the lowest it has been for years

Id hold off, reports it may reach Parity by years end

I can sell you some USD Banger.........

Hold off for a while

I had some friends who went to the UK about 3 times in a few years because of family issues a few years ago.
I could tell when they were there because the Aussie $ dropped below 33P every time.

May get to 92c in near future but I'd be 99% sure that it won't go over a dollar.

Nothing like speculation. If everyone knew where the dollar was going no one would be working. The analysts are paid to form an opinion (using various analysis techniques), and which ever way it goes they can argue fundamentally or technically why. I receive, and have had input into, commentaries from these guys day in day out, and at times they will admit they dont really know where it is going.

99% sure though. WOW.

ORDoubleBlues wrote:May get to 92c in near future but I'd be 99% sure that it won't go over a dollar.

I tend to agree - If it did I would expect it to not be for long.

Psyber wrote:

ORDoubleBlues wrote:May get to 92c in near future but I'd be 99% sure that it won't go over a dollar.

I tend to agree - If it did I would expect it to not be for long.

I have no idea really, I'm just passing on what Ross Greenwood (or whatever his name is) said.

What would he know anyway?

Footy Chick wrote:

Psyber wrote:

ORDoubleBlues wrote:May get to 92c in near future but I'd be 99% sure that it won't go over a dollar.

I tend to agree - If it did I would expect it to not be for long.

I have no idea really, I'm just passing on what Ross Greenwood (or whatever his name is) said.

What would he know anyway?

What did Kochy have to say about it??? Mumble, mumble mumble!

I've just got home from living in the UK for the past 3 years. The exchange rate is shite! I'm hoping to leave my money in my English account until it gets better, which means I need to find a job earlier than I would have liked back here. It is a fantastic time to be travelling on the Aussie dollar.

Aussie Dollar is worth 92.8 cents against the greenback as I type.
It is also worth 85.4 yen.
With housing prices rising in Melbourne (so I have read) perhaps confidence in the economy is growing again? Could we again see a resurgence in interest rates to stave off a housing bubble?
The Aussie dollar was trading at 100 yen before the crash. At that time my understanding is that investors turned to the yen for security as the Japanese have the highest rate of savings in the developed world (ie. their money is not in stock, not in credit, not invested in anything but plain old yen sitting in a bank) whereas the U.S was investment happy and the average Joe had basically nothing in the bank at all. A very shaky situation when the ass falls out of the market.
I think Australians have probably learnt from the US model and also tended to put their earnings into stock, as opposed to leaving their hard earned in the bank. But as things level off my guess is that worldwide investors may turn to the Aussie economy as a safe bet that could pay good dividends. The Japanese economy may be a safe place to leave money during a crisis but the returns aren't so great so far as I can see.
The return of the Aussie dollar?
Just a guess based on my limited scope.

Pseudo wrote:<grizzle>
I spent most of last year watching the dollar climb higher and higher against the greenback, almost reaching parity, 'coz I had to go to California in November.

Then the bloody US sub-prime mortgage crisis exploded, and the arse dropped right out of the AUD. During the period I was over there it managed to get as low as US 60c. At near-parity the USA would have been very, very cheap. At 60c it was bloody expensive.

The American economy had basically reamed itself with a great big economic dildo, yet the Australian dollar is the one that suffers. Is there any logic to this? Some fat cats in America made an absolute MINT by selling dodgy debts to Norwegian investors, sending millions to the poorhouse and crippling the American economy - yet the US dollar soars against the South Pacific Peso. Does this make any sense at all?

It's times like this I wish the commies had won the cold war.
</grizzle>



(edit)
footnote: In the not too distant future I am heading over to France. Expect the Euro to climb sharply in the next few weeks....

Oddly, when the US ecomony is bad, like now, the big US corporations and hedge funds switch thier liquid assets back into $usd, which means all the other currencies suffer. They see the $usd as a safer haven during the global turmoil. In the UK we have been doing a lot of Quantative Easing, which basically means we are printing more money which in turn devalues the currency. The Americans don't like the instability they get from it.

Went on a boys trip to Vegas June 08, got around the $0.96-$0.97 mark while i was there, when it was almost $ for $ had a great time! Espesially in a town where nearly everything is so cheap so you can gamble more!

Aus Dollar is worth US92.6 cents. Holding its ground pretty well over the weeks.
It is also worth about 80 yen.

.887

Retail about .857

Well done to those who grabbed some over .900

It's US89c even now on xe.com.
80.42 yen.
I worry a little about the health of the dollar. I have read that Japan is Australia's number one export market. But I heard a stat recently that 1 in 10 houses in Japan is empty. Japan also has an aging population. Australians look young by comparison. That stat of 1 in 10 empty houses should grow in the coming years. Surely deflation in house prices would follow? A current search on Japanese house prices does not reflect the trends IMO. I fear the bottom may fall out one day and it could be ugly for the Oz no1 export market.
That's all my own opinion though. And I hope I am just being paranoid, cause it would screw me over pretty bad I imagine if deflation hit housing in Japan. Last thing I want is people hanging on to their money because it is going to be worth more tomorrow.

BUMP
Australian Dollar trading strong at about 92 cents U.S. She has been hovering there for about two or three days now, maybe two weeks ago she was about 90 cents. It has gained ground healthily against the yen recenty also. I suspect the Toyota crisis is influencing this somehow, but that is an uneducated guess. 1 Australian dollar cracked 87 yen earlier yesterday and is hovering about 86.7 yen now. Two weeks ago it was around the 82 yen mark.
Anyone have any clues as to why this is happening?