Climate change...

[The Sleeping Giant]

[url=http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23229-humanitarian-disaster-blamed-on-climate-change.html]Humanitarian disaster blamed on climate change[/url]

For the first time, we have proof that climate change has led to a humanitarian disaster. The East African drought of 2011, which resulted in a famine that killed at least 50,000 people, was partly caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

The drought was brought about by the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons: the "short rains" in late 2010 and the "long rains" at the start of 2011. Climatologist Peter Stott of the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, and his colleagues ran climate models, with and without a human influence on climate, and compared the likelihood of the rains failing.

Humanity's activities had no effect on the short rains – they failed because of a strong La Niña in the Pacific. "That's natural," says Stott.

But climate change did affect the long rains, making them more likely to fail (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/kmv). The model could only reproduce the scale of the drought if it included greenhouse gas emissions.

What caused the drought and famine in the 80's?

[Psyber]

There is no doubt the climate is changing and that we are in a warming phase and that the warming is driving the weather shifts.

Where the jury is out is about whether the primary cause of the change is human activity...

The science says that:

Rising CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels has affected global temperature much more than natural climate variability during the past century.

Thanks for posting a link to "The Science" mate.
I haven’t looked at all the “Related Links” listing in this example, or read all the references, BUT...

This section is entirely focussed on post 1910: http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Climate ... ature.aspx
This section only goes back to 1880: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... ceans.aspx
The CO2 emissions chart goes back to 1000AD – the beginning of the Little Ice Age: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... Gases.aspx
The oldest data here seems to come from 1975: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... oxide.aspx
1880 onward time frame again: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... rming.aspx

That doesn’t encourage me to believe the references will be likely to have addressed longer term issues if I do spend the time to read them when I can spare it.

However, as I've said before, I am reasonably satisfied, after running data you supplied past John Tibby and reading linking references he supplied, there is a human contribution to our current peak CO2 levels, and that we should clean them up. It is just too big a leap of faith to then say all the climate change is driven only by human activity.

[Psyber]

Not against creating less pollution. Why are recent governments?

Not just governments.
I emailed several unions, sending the link to the W.H.O. classifying diesel fumes on the same level of carcinogenicity as Asbestos, and asking what steps they are planning to take to protect their members, since we take Asbestos very seriously, and got not one reply...
(I assume they'll raise it under the next Coalition government.)

Spot on Psyber, Oxides of Nitrogen (NoX) are the "quiet" one when it comes to diesels emissions, they are a carcinogen and have the potential to do more damage than CO2, High Opacity and particulate matter.
Unlike your typical "black smoke" pollutants that older diesels commonly emit, NoX is not visible to the naked eye, and more disturbingly it is a by product of high combustion temperatures which are required for the modern "cleaner" diesels to achieve their otherwise much lower emissions. Most modern "clean" diesels produce dangerously high amounts of NoX and the most effective way to reduce it...............richen up the mixture and produce more particulates and opacity.

Thanks Psyber for raising this as I was previously unaware of this quite disturbing issue. Do you know where I might go to get more info (aside from a random google search)?

Here are a couple of write ups about the issue:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/d ... ic/4068414
http://www.nhs.uk/news/2012/06june/Page ... nogen.aspx

Here is one possible solution: http://wardsauto.com/ar/thorium_power_car_110811

[fish]

There is no doubt the climate is changing and that we are in a warming phase and that the warming is driving the weather shifts.

Where the jury is out is about whether the primary cause of the change is human activity...

The science says that:

Rising CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels has affected global temperature much more than natural climate variability during the past century.

Thanks for posting a link to "The Science" mate.
I haven’t looked at all the “Related Links” listing in this example, or read all the references, BUT...

This section is entirely focussed on post 1910: http://www.csiro.au/en/Outcomes/Climate ... ature.aspx
This section only goes back to 1880: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... ceans.aspx
The CO2 emissions chart goes back to 1000AD – the beginning of the Little Ice Age: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... Gases.aspx
The oldest data here seems to come from 1975: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... oxide.aspx
1880 onward time frame again: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Un ... rming.aspx

That doesn’t encourage me to believe the references will be likely to have addressed longer term issues if I do spend the time to read them when I can spare it.

You probably should have done a bit more research Psyber - the CSIRO analysis is underpinned by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that examines the relationship between the earths temperature and carbon dioxide over at least the last 400million years!

That IPCC report states that:

Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases and aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out- going infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

[fish]

However, as I've said before, I am reasonably satisfied, after running data you supplied past John Tibby and reading linking references he supplied, there is a human contribution to our current peak CO2 levels, and that we should clean them up. It is just too big a leap of faith to then say all the climate change is driven only by human activity.

I haven't seen any science that says that all the current warming is driven by human activity - only that the portion driven by human activity exceeds that driven by natural factors.

[fish]

Meanwhile, a report in New Scientist states that:

Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last 11,300 years...

...The rate of warming in the last 150 years is unlike anything that happened in at least 11,000 years, says Michael Mann of the Pennsylvania State University in University Park, who was not involved in Marcott's study. It was Mann who created the original hockey stick graph (see upper graph here), which showed the change in global temperatures over the last 1000 years.

Over the Holocene, temperatures rose and fell less than 1 °C, and they did so over thousands of years, says Marcott. "It took 8000 years to go from warm to cold." Agriculture, communal life and forms of government all arose during this relatively stable period, he adds. Then in 100 years, global temperatures suddenly shot up again to very close to the previous maximum.

How fast temperatures change is the real issue of climate change, says Mann. "That's what challenges our adaptive capacity." Rapid change means farming practices must alter quickly, and preparations for extreme weather events must also be rapidly put in place.

[scoob]

So fish you are saying you believe in climate change or not?

[Psyber]

However, as I've said before, I am reasonably satisfied, after running data you supplied past John Tibby and reading linking references he supplied, there is a human contribution to our current peak CO2 levels, and that we should clean them up. It is just too big a leap of faith to then say all the climate change is driven only by human activity.

I haven't seen any science that says that all the current warming is driven by human activity - only that the portion driven by human activity exceeds that driven by natural factors.

I agree, it is just that some propagandists with vested interest assert that the science does prove it is all anthropogenic and that changing our behaviour will fix it.
I think whatever we can contribute to reducing the effect is small, because the human contribution is small on top of the current cycle peak, but is worth doing.

Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases and aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out- going infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

My only problem with this is that it moves from stating facts to subtly implying that the human component in that warming influence is the central factor.
However, that warming influence may simply be associated with the tapering off of the Little Ice Age shortly after 1750 towards its end around 1890.

[Psyber]

Meanwhile, a report in New Scientist states that:

Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last 11,300 years...

...The rate of warming in the last 150 years is unlike anything that happened in at least 11,000 years, says Michael Mann of the Pennsylvania State University in University Park, who was not involved in Marcott's study. It was Mann who created the original hockey stick graph (see upper graph here), which showed the change in global temperatures over the last 1000 years.

Over the Holocene, temperatures rose and fell less than 1 °C, and they did so over thousands of years, says Marcott. "It took 8000 years to go from warm to cold." Agriculture, communal life and forms of government all arose during this relatively stable period, he adds. Then in 100 years, global temperatures suddenly shot up again to very close to the previous maximum.

How fast temperatures change is the real issue of climate change, says Mann. "That's what challenges our adaptive capacity." Rapid change means farming practices must alter quickly, and preparations for extreme weather events must also be rapidly put in place.

The Holocene is a very short stable period.
Wikipedia:"The Holocene is a geological epoch which began at the end of the Pleistocene[1] (around 12,000 to 11,500 14C years ago) and continues to the present."

Using it to talk about long term global climate trends is analogous to using short term meteorological records since 1890 to talk about recent weather changes.
See this chart - which does is not a "denier" as it does raise the concern we may be facing a major change.
The current slope looks similar to that coming off a similar stable base about 270 million years ago:

CO2 and mass extinctions.jpg (35.91 KiB) Viewed 339 times

[Bully]

the carbon tax seemed to have worked well from about 250 million years ago till 200 million years ago. Have a look at the rapid decline in CO2 emissions

[dedja]

Well spotted ... it's not well known that it's retrospective

[fish]

Meanwhile, a report in New Scientist states that:

Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last 11,300 years...

...The rate of warming in the last 150 years is unlike anything that happened in at least 11,000 years, says Michael Mann of the Pennsylvania State University in University Park, who was not involved in Marcott's study. It was Mann who created the original hockey stick graph (see upper graph here), which showed the change in global temperatures over the last 1000 years.

Over the Holocene, temperatures rose and fell less than 1 °C, and they did so over thousands of years, says Marcott. "It took 8000 years to go from warm to cold." Agriculture, communal life and forms of government all arose during this relatively stable period, he adds. Then in 100 years, global temperatures suddenly shot up again to very close to the previous maximum.

How fast temperatures change is the real issue of climate change, says Mann. "That's what challenges our adaptive capacity." Rapid change means farming practices must alter quickly, and preparations for extreme weather events must also be rapidly put in place.

The Holocene is a very short stable period.

It used to be stable - it is now rapidly getting hotter, primarily due to the sh!tloads of carbon dioxide we are putting into the atmosphere.

It is no coincidence that the rapidly rising temperature is occuring at the same time as rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

[smac]

What car do you drive, fish?

[Bully]

What car do you drive, fish?

he gets driven around, thats what wayne swann...i mean fish gets doesnt he?

[Sky Pilot]

What car do you drive, fish?

I see fish as one of those guys who rides a push bike to work and he would have a Fiat 500 to roar around in on weekends

[Bully]

What car do you drive, fish?

I see fish as one of those guys who rides a push bike to work and he would have a Fiat 500 to roar around in on weekends

i bet its a Vk commodore V8.....i mean a hybrid , thats well overdue for a tune

[Psyber]

The Holocene is a very short stable period.

It used to be stable - it is now rapidly getting hotter, primarily due to the sh!tloads of carbon dioxide we are putting into the atmosphere.

It is no coincidence that the rapidly rising temperature is occuring at the same time as rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

Nor that it is occurring at the same time as an expected rapid peak in the Milankovitch cycles as the graphs of that cycle posted here before show.

"Occurs with this therefore because of this." is the conclusion the faithful tend to jump to because they want to.
I have said many times that I agree we look to be contributing to the present rise.
I just dispute the assumption of "primarily due to.."

What do you say then about the similar rise 270 million years ago?
What - or who - put the "sh!tloads of carbon dioxide we (are) putting into the atmosphere" there then?

[Bully]

Meanwhile, a report in New Scientist states that:

Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last 11,300 years...

...The rate of warming in the last 150 years is unlike anything that happened in at least 11,000 years, says Michael Mann of the Pennsylvania State University in University Park, who was not involved in Marcott's study. It was Mann who created the original hockey stick graph (see upper graph here), which showed the change in global temperatures over the last 1000 years.

Over the Holocene, temperatures rose and fell less than 1 °C, and they did so over thousands of years, says Marcott. "It took 8000 years to go from warm to cold." Agriculture, communal life and forms of government all arose during this relatively stable period, he adds. Then in 100 years, global temperatures suddenly shot up again to very close to the previous maximum.

How fast temperatures change is the real issue of climate change, says Mann. "That's what challenges our adaptive capacity." Rapid change means farming practices must alter quickly, and preparations for extreme weather events must also be rapidly put in place.

The Holocene is a very short stable period.

It used to be stable - it is now rapidly getting hotter, primarily due to the sh!tloads of carbon dioxide we are putting into the atmosphere.

It is no coincidence that the rapidly rising temperature is occuring at the same time as rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

looking at the previous graph posted here fish tell me, what is the cause of of the time period between 300 million years till 200 million years ago, where you can see its a rapid increase in CO2, then a rapid decrease? As you seem to know a lot about the science of this, so can you please explain that era?
WHy is there a rapid increase in CO2, then a rapid decrease ?

[therisingblues]

What do you say then about the similar rise 270 million years ago?
What - or who - put the "sh!tloads of carbon dioxide we (are) putting into the atmosphere" there then?

I never get this argument: because something was natural in the past, mankind cannot be responsible for it now.
Anyway, a quick google revealed a couple of theories. The period you are asking about coincides with the Permian age, which ended about 250 million years ago. Wikipedia says it's the largest single extinction event on record. The strongest theory is that it was volcanic.
The following is copied and pasted from wiki:
The final stages of the Permian had two flood basalt events. A small one, Emeishan Traps in China, occurred at the same time as the end-Guadalupian extinction pulse, in an area close to the equator at the time.[96][97] The flood basalt eruptions that produced the Siberian Traps constituted one of the largest known volcanic events on Earth and covered over 2,000,000 square kilometres (770,000 sq mi) with lava.[98][99][100] The Siberian Traps eruptions were formerly thought to have lasted for millions of years, but recent research dates them to 251.2 ± 0.3 Ma — immediately before the end of the Permian.[9][101]

The Emeishan and Siberian Traps eruptions may have caused dust clouds and acid aerosols—which would have blocked out sunlight and thus disrupted photosynthesis both on land and in the photic zone of the ocean, causing food chains to collapse. These eruptions may also have caused acid rain when the aerosols washed out of the atmosphere. This may have killed land plants and molluscs and planktonic organisms which had calcium carbonate shells. The eruptions would also have emitted carbon dioxide, causing global warming. When all of the dust clouds and aerosols washed out of the atmosphere, the excess carbon dioxide would have remained and the warming would have proceeded without any mitigating effects.[93]
Your climate chart over the ages also indicates volcanic activity as the cause of the increased CO2 in that period.
Now these eruptions are believed to have been massive, unlike anything on Earth now. No doubt the occassional volcano goes pop from time to time now, but we haven't had a Krakatoa, Mt St Helens or Vesuvius for a while now, something else is driving CO2 levels up.

[Bully]

no one is saying that humans arent the cause of the current warming, we are just trying to show you global warming people "100% caused by humans", that this warming has happened before. Booth rapidly increased , and rapidly decreased. Both by the looks of a recent chart, every 200 million years. Last rapid increase/decrease was 200 million years ago thereabouts, and being it seems to happen around that time period, its been 200 million years since the rapid increase, so....