Viva Le Tour - Tour de France 2011

[brod]

Starts tomorrow night with a 191km stage.

It is so unfortunate that the event could be overshadowed by the fact the the favourite for this years title and reigning champion is under the "drugs" cloud

BRODS TIPS

General Classification (Yellow)
1. Contador
2. A Schlek
3 Gesink
4 Basso
5 Evans
6 Leipheimer
7 Sanchez
8 F Schlek
9 Kern
10 Brajkovic

Points Classification (Green)
1. Hushovd
2. Cavendish
3. Gilbert
4. Petacchi
5. JJ Rojas

King of the Mountains (Polka)
1. Contador
2. Chavanel
3. Vinokourov
4. Kern
5. Gesink

Best Aussie (GC without Cadel)
R Porte

[dedja]

Andy Schleck will win the maillot jaune this year ...

[Grahaml]

Schleck hasn't been in great form, which is often the best thing leading into a 3 week TDF. Contador though, as much as I don't like him and think he's probably been a drug cheat looks a class ahead of everyone else.

Cadel sadly missed his great chance. Will need something spectacular to happen for him to win. Although if his luck evens out from previous tours he'll be the luckiest rider in tour history. Top 5 for him would be a good achievement.

Richie Porte is the only other decent climber in the squad and is a good time trialler, so will end up fairly high in the GC. Should be top 20, maybe even top 10.

But I love the tour every year. Whatever happens it'll be fascinating.

[pels]

Good summary Brod I reckon you have got the top 10 spot on

Contador is going to S*it in it,watched a fair bit of the giro and he was class above the rest in a real tough giro.
The only way they are going to beat him, is to continually attack him,but I just don't see the other riders doing
that,they will just ride conservatively and you are not going to beat him by doing that.

IMHO he shouldn't even be racing its a disgrace that they haven't sorted out his doping issue since last Oct.

As always love watching the Tour and really hope for some great stages.

[Grahaml]

Good summary Brod I reckon you have got the top 10 spot on

Contador is going to S*it in it,watched a fair bit of the giro and he was class above the rest in a real tough giro.
The only way they are going to beat him, is to continually attack him,but I just don't see the other riders doing
that,they will just ride conservatively and you are not going to beat him by doing that.

IMHO he shouldn't even be racing its a disgrace that they haven't sorted out his doping issue since last Oct.

As always love watching the Tour and really hope for some great stages.

All on the mark, but I'm waiting for the stupid looking prediction that we look at afterwards and think Brod was a genuis. Lol.

Give us something Brod. A Contador withdrawing in the Pyranees prediction, a Cadel mountain breakaway prediction. Maybe even a Rasmussen style solo stage domination by someone.

[fuzz]

Great win for Gilbert. Great day for Cadel. Look forward to tomorrow

[am Bays]

Porte is basically there to drag Contador 3/4 up the mountains, so unless something happens to Contador ( ) Evans has more chance than him as he will be under orders. Can't see him winning but he should finish high up in the GC.

Evans needs the help Contador is going to get if he is to be any chance.

[mickey]

Nice time trial tonight by Evans, missed the yellow by seconds

[Grahaml]

Have they gone back to the time gaps on the road this year? They went to preorgained time gaps at one point. Trying to piece together how it works from the DTF site, but the stage standings aren't done yet. I was also under the impression the time counted for the whole team, but apparently not for those who split off from the first 5.

Interesting to see Hushovd riding stage 2 in the polka dot jersey. Especially since he had no points in that competition! The only rider to get a point was wearing yellow, so it went to the next rider in the GC. Evans got the Green jersey preference being second in that comp after Gilbert too, so rider #3 in the GC got the dots.

[Bulls forever]

Can't believe that Brod has gone against Cavendish for the green. Has been the absolute dominant sprinter over past two TDF and unless Brod has some inside mail, can't see anyone getting near him.

[Squawk]

Cadel sadly missed his great chance. Will need something spectacular to happen for him to win. Although if his luck evens out from previous tours he'll be the luckiest rider in tour history. Top 5 for him would be a good achievement.

But I love the tour every year. Whatever happens it'll be fascinating.

Well, after the first two nights Im full of glee seeing Contador firstly get caught up in the crash and subsequent log jam on the road and drop 77 seconds to Cadel...and then to lose another 24 seconds to Cadel in the TTT last night was pure icing!

Contador is probably still good enough to find another 1.41 on Cadel, especially if Cadel has some of his own misfortune in the next three weeks. Who can forget the puncture or the broken elbow, for instance....

IF Contador has been on the jungle juice, then surely he cant afford to take that risk this year after being under so much scrutiny.

Cadel still has plenty of quality challengers nearby to be ever watchful of but hopefully 101 seconds (plus the extra second owned atm by Millar and Hushovd FWIW) will be a real mental mountain for Contador to climb.

[am Bays]

I reckon he can find a 1:41 on Cadel, but whether he can find the 1:38 on Schleck is another matter....

[dedja]

depends how strong the jungle juice is ...

[Squawk]

I reckon he can find a 1:41 on Cadel, but whether he can find the 1:38 on Schleck is another matter....

Fair assessment there - notwithstanding that this year Cadel has Hincapie as his main man. Too often Cadel has dropped his own team in the mountains and had to go alone when Schleck had his brother alongside him, or Contador had good support.

[Grahaml]

I reckon he can find a 1:41 on Cadel, but whether he can find the 1:38 on Schleck is another matter....

Fair assessment there - notwithstanding that this year Cadel has Hincapie as his main man. Too often Cadel has dropped his own team in the mountains and had to go alone when Schleck had his brother alongside him, or Contador had good support.

Contador has had some of the greatest helpers. Leipheimer, Armstrong the last couple, Kloden. These guys have some great finishes in their own right(Armstrong in particular obviously). Schleck has had Frank and Sastre plus the strongest trio of peleton controlling beasts in Cancellaro, Voigt and O'Grady we've seen in one team for a long time. But this year both riders have less illustrious assistance while Evans has more. Schleck and Contador will still pull time in the mountains you'd think. But they may end up battling each other so much that Cadel might get a chance to escape for once if his form and fitness are still good. If he can get another 30 seconds even on a stage, Contador will have a serious threat. While Schleck will lose time to both in the final TT.

[Grahaml]

Can't believe that Brod has gone against Cavendish for the green. Has been the absolute dominant sprinter over past two TDF and unless Brod has some inside mail, can't see anyone getting near him.

Cavendish wins a lot, but it's all or nothing for him. He also has a spotty record getting over the mountains. For all his wins, breaking records etc, he's never won the green. Although they've got a new points scheme aimed at rewarding stage winners more, should help. But it's hard to expect the same form from the guy this year as previous.

[Grahaml]

BTW, it is actually le Tour, not la Tour.

[brod]

Can't believe that Brod has gone against Cavendish for the green. Has been the absolute dominant sprinter over past two TDF and unless Brod has some inside mail, can't see anyone getting near him.

Cavendish wins a lot, but it's all or nothing for him. He also has a spotty record getting over the mountains. For all his wins, breaking records etc, he's never won the green. Although they've got a new points scheme aimed at rewarding stage winners more, should help. But it's hard to expect the same form from the guy this year as previous.

There are a number of stages such as tonights that just dont suit the traditional sprinter (Cavendish) as much.

[brod]

BTW, it is actually le Tour, not la Tour.

Corrected

[NFC]

Will Cadel be wearing yellow at the end of tonight I wonder...