Tour de France 2008 - July 5-27

[Dogwatcher]

So by that reckoning and (if they stay in current positions after tonight's stage) Evans will be fourth last to roll out on Sunday morning. Could be a late one...

[rogernumber10]

this might help

Race organizers can adjust starting time gaps between riders, but most time trials begin with riders leaving a starting ramp 2 minutes apart. Cyclists compete in the reverse order of their position in the General Classification (the current standings). If a faster rider is about to overtake a slower rider, he must pass while leaving at least a 2-meter distance to prevent drafting, which is illegal only at this point in the race. A passed slower rider then must ride at least 25 meters behind to prevent him from getting the drafting benefits of a slipstream from the leading rider.

Thanks. So, again one for the bike experts.
Does that presumably mean with every single second being important and if you didn't want to be passed, you have to ride next to the guy who is trying to pass you, and in effect race him side to side, if you are trying to maintain position and don't want to be passed, and don't want to be penalised for slipstreaming?

[Dogwatcher]

I'm going to give a response, it may be incorrect, but...

Evans is about 1.35 behind race leader Sastre at this point.
Evans is the better time trialler. Sastre's aim would be to keep Evans in sight I would think, not necessarily side by side.
If he's in sight, you'd think Evans won't make up the time he needs to pass Sastre and thereby go a long way to sealing victory.

That's just an ill informed view, someone can correct me if they wish.

[Dirko]

IIRC Evans made up 40 odd seconds on the last time trail on Sastre.

This time trail is 20 k longer. If Cadel rides to his capabilities, and the blokes in front of
him to theirs he will be in front at days end by around 10 - 20 seconds.

Cadels team is crap, the blokes in front of him will be going solo, and will crumble !

[Dogwatcher]

I've been watching it and wondering how Cadel could be the leading chance to win the race and his team is so rubbish. you'd've thought with a whole year to prepare their charge they could've got a better outfit.

How good has O'Grady's riding been btw?

Sastre - has he previously won the Tour Down Under?

[am Bays]

IIRC Evans made up 40 odd seconds on the last time trail on Sastre.

This time trail is 20 k longer. If Cadel rides to his capabilities, and the blokes in front of
him to theirs he will be in front at days end by around 10 - 20 seconds.

Cadels team is crap, the blokes in front of him will be going solo, and will crumble !

Evans recorded a time 1:42 faster than Sastre over 29.5 km

[Dirko]

IIRC Evans made up 40 odd seconds on the last time trail on Sastre.

This time trail is 20 k longer. If Cadel rides to his capabilities, and the blokes in front of
him to theirs he will be in front at days end by around 10 - 20 seconds.

Cadels team is crap, the blokes in front of him will be going solo, and will crumble !

Evans recorded a time 1:42 faster than Sastre over 29.5 km

Shit ! Was it that much ! If he does that again he'll slaughter him !

[devilsadvocate]

Evans was 1.16 faster than Sastre in the Stage 4 time trial.

He came home 4th with a time of 36.11.

Of the current leaderboard, Cadel was fastest by a reasonable margin and if you extrapolate his margin out over the additional distance of todays race, he should win the yellow:

Sastre - initial TT 37.27 (Gap to Cadel in initial TT - 1.16)
Schleck F - initial TT 37.58 (Gap to Cadel in initial TT - 1.47)
Kohl - initial TT 37.31 (Gap to Cadel in initial TT - 1.20)
CADEL - initial TT 36.11
Menchov - initial TT 36.18 (Gap to Cadel in initial TT - 0.07
Vandevelde - initial TT 36.21 (Gap to Cadel in initial TT - 0.10)

So with the current leaders being:

1.SASTRE 82h 54' 36"
2.SCHLECK F. + 01' 24"
3.KOHL B. +01' 33"
4.EVANS C. +01' 34"
5.MENCHOV D. +02' 39"
6.VANDEVELDE C .+04' 41"

realistically, only Cadel and Sastre are a chance, barring an accident caused by the piss poor French weather.

Extrapolating out the initial TT gaps from the 29.5k stage 4, todays 53km stage could see the following:

1. Sastre - 2.27m behind Cadel
2. Schleck - 3.20m behind
3. Kohl - 2.39 behind
4. Cadel beating these guys easily!!!
5. Menchov - 12seconds behind
6. Vandevelde - 18 seconds behind.

So, in theory Cadel should roll into Paris to claim the yellow with a margin of 53 seconds. Fingers crossed lads, Cadel should be the first Australian to win the Tour de France. Hopefully today is a great day in Australian sporting history.

P.S. Geez I'm a nerd!

[Dirko]

P.S. Geez I'm a nerd!

Yes you are !! Will laugh if the seconds are spot on !!

[devilsadvocate]

P.S. Geez I'm a nerd!

Yes you are !! Will laugh if the seconds are spot on !!

Imagine the payout for getting those gaps right for the top 5.

Retirement would becon!

[Thiele]

what time does Cadel Go

[devilsadvocate]

what time does Cadel Go

Cadel leaves at 4:17 Frenchie time, so 13m to midinght SA time.

A quote from Cadel's team from letour.fr:

13:15 - Redant – “We’re racing for yellow…”
Cadel Evans rode the course early today, starting at about 10.30am. “We left the hotel at nine,” said Silence-Lotto directeur sportif Hendrik Redant, “and we were on the course after a bit of a drive. Cadel rode the entire course to make sure he understands what lies ahead today. He does it as always: paying close attention to all the corners and even stopping, turning back and riding some again to make sure he understand what the best path to take is.
“There were some corners that he rode three or four times.
“It’s a course that suits him and I’m confident about his chances. We know what we’re here for: we’re racing for the yellow jersey!”

13:10 - Evans Has Just Returned From Reconnaissance...
LeTour.fr recently spoke to the man who will be calling the shots for Cadel Evans who is due to start the time trial at 4.17pm. Hendrik Redant explained, "The course suits him with plenty of power pieces, sections where he can really stamp on the pedals. This is where he’s going to gain a bit of time."
The Belgian directeur sportif will not follow any other riders from the Silence-Lotto team and is looking forward to the challenge that’s facing him this afternoon when he’s going to call the race for Evans. "I’ll be there in the car like I have been all through the Tour. Today it’s a little different but the atmosphere in the team is tranquil. Cadel is calm and I’m confident."

Sounds like he's ready to go. Man I wish I was there. I've got a mate trackside, so will try to snipe a few pics from him tomorrow.

[Thiele]

Go Cadel

[devilsadvocate]

Forgot to mention too, watch out ofr Fabian Cancellara, who has just started. The current world TT champion is blitzing the field and will post the fastest time so far. IMO, if Cadel aims to get close to Cancellara's time, he'll be doing well, as Cancellara should take this stage.

[Cambridge Clarrie]

Let's hope he can do the job. Regardless his effort has been sensational, particularly given his team (as noted by others)...

Every rider that makes it to Paris has my admiration. These guys are the greatest athletes on the planet...

[Dirko]

Forgot to mention too, watch out ofr Fabian Cancellara

He's in and clocked;

01:04:12

One minute, 16 seconds ahead of second place ! Cadel needs to make up One minute & 34 seconds so will
need to go quicker

[Dirko]

Cadel Evans is about to go ! GO CADEL, GO !!

[Thiele]

I can't see Cadel getting up

[Dirko]

I can't see Cadel getting up

Gonna be hard, he'd only pinged back 8 seconds so far

Hopefully he comes home with a wet sail....

[Cambridge Clarrie]

I can't see Cadel getting up

Gonna be hard, he'd only pinged back 8 seconds so far

Hopefully he comes home with a wet sail....

Not sounding too promising...