Tour de France 2009

[dedja]

Very, very early days but Lance is an absolute freak. He worked the hardest of all in Astana in the TTT to blast away all other contenders to miss out on the yellow by a bee's dick.

There is absolutely no doubt that he is capable of winning Le Tour (at 37 FFS!) ... Contador is still right up there and also a very good chance at 19 sec as are a host of others.

Cadel, unfortunately as I predicted after stage 2, is in deep trouble and with a poor time trial and is 36th at 2:59. I don't understand why he persists with Silence-Lotto as they are such a poor team who consistently fail to support him.

It's been a brilliant 3 stages so far ... 18 to go!

[devilsadvocate]

Very, very early days but Lance is an absolute freak. He worked the hardest of all in Astana in the TTT to blast away all other contenders to miss out on the yellow by a bee's dick.

There is absolutely no doubt that he is capable of winning Le Tour (at 37 FFS!) ... Contador is still right up there and also a very good chance at 19 sec as are a host of others.

Cadel, unfortunately as I predicted after stage 2, is in deep trouble and with a poor time trial and is 36th at 2:59. I don't understand why he persists with Silence-Lotto as they are such a poor team who consistently fail to support him.

It's been a brilliant 3 stages so far ... 18 to go!

Agree with all of that, especially the last bit!

Cadel is now in strife. 2:59 is a LOT to make up in the mountains when the likes of Contador and Lance are leading the pack.

Rodgers isn't looking as comfortable either, with the Columbia team dropping a lot of time yesterday too.

Can't wait for Andorra personally. Like everyone else, I'm itching to see how Lance goes.

I'm still hoping for a Rodgers charge too.

[Dogwatcher]

How good were some of those stacks last night!
Love the TTT

[dedja]

I forgot to mention last night ... did anyone else notice the guy on the side of the course who was starkers?

[Squawk]

I forgot to mention last night ... did anyone else notice the guy on the side of the course who was starkers?

LMAO - yes, I did. He just appeared on that slow bend, right in the frame of the motorcycle camera. All of a sudden, Phil Sherwen tripped on his words.

Just saw a couple of undie clad blokes and one who dropped them past his crack as well.

I haven;t seen the devil yet tho.

[dedja]

I remember in one of the stages last year and one of the riders was reaching into the nicks and ooops, out came the slug ... took the director a good 5 secs to realise what was going on.

[Squawk]

I reckon the commentary has dropped off this year - getting a bit repitive and Phil S seems to be 'taking on' Phil L. I think I know which one of them is truly "Big Phil"

[dedja]

I think they're like that every year ... seen one castle, seen them all.

No, I enjoy the commentary ... how hard would it be to crap on for hours when not a lot happens in the first 100Kms.

Looks like a zero loss, zero gain stage at the moment.

I think Lance would be happy to sit behind the yellow by 0.22 secs for a while.

[Squawk]

Cadel has hopefully spent a bit ot time in the room of mirrors overnight. We know his team isn't great but I think he has to do something out of the ordinary to find 3 minutes. He is an excellent climber but so too are many others.

I think he has two options:

1. Jump in a breakaway very early and use his outstanding time trialing abilities to try and get the breakaway to stick, while Silence Lotto and Rabobank hold the peleton as long as they can. Menchev could go with him - he's even further down the GC than Cadel.
2. July 14 - no race radios are allowed. With Astana having 4 of the top 5, Cadel could try and break away and leave Astana fighting amongst themselves as to who is gonna chase him down and do that hard work, and who is gonna sit back and think they are the team leader (ie Contador or Armstrong).

Any other thoughts?

[dedja]

The problem is Squawk that Cadel has not backed himself previously in the Tour to take chances ... he prefers to play it safe with percentages.

Obviously the lack of support from his team puts a heavier toll on him than maybe the others who get the support. I think that has been proven by the relatively poor results in the last time trial in the last 2 Tours, when both times he was almost expected to make up time but didn't because he was so tired.

He's a good climber but he's not explosive ... I think he's absolutely f***ed unfortunately.

The only saving grace may be that because he is so far behind the contenders might not worry about him initially if he does make a move ... a freedom he hasn't had in the last couple of years.

So maybe, if he takes those chances as you describe, he might be able to bridge the gap somewhat, but its an extremely tall ask.

His best bet is to find a new team for next year.

[Squawk]

The problem is Squawk that Cadel has not backed himself previously in the Tour to take chances ... he prefers to play it safe with percentages.

Hence the "room of mirrors" reference.

IMHO he can either wait another year, or with 15 stages left, he can try a few different things. If they dont work out, he wont have lost much. A 3 minute lag already may mean that the GC leaders are a little less respectful of him, particularly on a flat stage if they think they can drag him back in.

I reckon he has to throw caution to the wind and keep the others a bit more honest. If they fail to be attentive, he could seize the day - (ie a minute or two) - which may be of great motivation when they get into the mountains.

I really think the "never before tried" ban on race radios on July 14 is a real opportunity to see if Astana have too many Chiefs and not enough Indians when it comes to a chase.

[dedja]

I agree that Cadel has nothing to lose by taking chances.

The radio ban will be interesting ... because Lance is such a smart competitor and leader, I think his ability to rally the Astana team on the road is probably better than anyone else, so perversely it may actually help Astana rather than hinder.

Look at the way he rallied the team in the TTT ... I don't think there's many riders around who can lead like that. Contador was happy (or unable to do anything other than) play 2nd fiddle.

[Squawk]

Contador obviously like to be close behind the boys
He is definitely a "follower" in the peleton.

[devilsadvocate]

Oh noooooooo.

It looks like Michael Rodgers is out. Absolutely gutting.

[Squawk]

sh i t - I've missed it whilst doing my tipping. what t f happened???

[dedja]

He's definitely out ... I missed what happened as well.

Exiting finish by the way.

[Squawk]

Dedja, exactly what I was talking about earlier is exactly what Millar has done today. He was 10th in the GC a minute 08 behind and he nearly pulled it off the victory. See what I was thinking?

The Aussies are suffering a curse in this tour -

McEwen - never got there after breaking his leg in the lead up
Davis - dumped for Boonen
Evans - bad time trial luck and a puncture today
Haussler (soon to be an aussie again!) - crashed
Rogers - crashed with Haussler

WTF is going on for the boxing kangaroos?

[dedja]

Except Millar tried to live by the sword and he died by the sword ... even though he nearly pulled it off, he ended up blowing time and dropping out the top 10.

... but I know where you are coming from though.

Cadel did well today to keep with the peleton after the puncture.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It's been good to watch so far.

[Squawk]

Except Millar tried to live by the sword and he died by the sword ... even though he nearly pulled it off, he ended up blowing time and dropping out the top 10.

... but I know where you are coming from though.

Yep, he had a big dip, no one chased until things got critical and he was only 1.08 behind the leader. Now if Cadel and Menchov got only get together.....who knows?

Tomorrow will be interesting. First big climb. I'm tipping Boonen wont be first across the line - again! LOL.

[devilsadvocate]

sh i t - I've missed it whilst doing my tipping. what t f happened???

As a bunch of riders passed through a roundabout, Rodgers slipped on a big white line in the road which was super wet from the rain. He fell real hard and also took out about 8 other riders in the process. He didn't get up until helped by one of his crew and once up wasn't walking well at all and clutching his elbow, which seemed to be the biggest issue. He didn't even really try to get back on his bike, which was pretty telling given the way he reacted to his stack a couple of years back.

He must be devastated AGAIN. I guess this year didn't start will for him though with 2 punctures in the initial individual time trial, a poorish result in the TTT and now this. Fingers crossed he is back next year and finally dominates it like he should.