MAY-Z wrote:mal wrote:MAY-Z whats easier ?
246 off 50 overs the original target
211 off 33 overs the last adjusted total
mal when austalia were chasing 246 off 50 overs they had 100% of their resources available
by the time that they main rain delay occurred england had diminished australias resources considerably by removing 5 front line batsmen.
therefore obviously the first target should be much easier due to the fact england had played well for 16ish overs, thus the australian target needed to be harder.
if the rain had continued longer and only another 5 overs were possible would it have been fair on england (or any bowling side for that matter) if australia were still able to use all their wickets but still have a target comparable to that at the start of teh innings ie 5 per over, off of another 5 overs with 5 wickets in hand is much much easier than 5 an over for 35 overs with 5 wickets in hand.
AU were about 5/79 off about 16.2 overs before the rain came
The equation
34 overs to get 167 runs [target 246]
became
17 overs to get 132 runs [target 211]
MAY -Z If I was HODGE + WATSON i would certainly want to chase the 246
When the first revised target came up look at this
34 overs to get 167 runs [target 246]
became if finished on the 20 over minimum
3.4 overs to get 52 runs [target 121 runs]
Once again the 246 was far more gettable than 52 off 22 balls
MAY-Z I cant beat your argument however, basically the formula is
the best possible taking all the variables and D/L is a system based
on many years of statisical research of all previously played o/d games.
Its here to stay.
Probability suggests EG were a long odds on favourite before the last rain,
BUT history shows and the future will always show that odds on favourites do get beaten.
We will never EVER know if LEE+BRACKEN could have won the game.