Where to from here?
Posted: Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:20 amInteresting times ahead.
There is no doubt that until now, the Labor Government was out on its ear at the next election, with the only question being the size of the rout. The PM was (and still is) at record lows and the only glimmer of hope was that the Leader of the Opposition wasn’t much more popular.
Positive publicity for the Government was almost non-existent and the situation looked set in concrete, the only factor being to wait for the next election, whether that was two years or two months away.
If there was an election now, the result would still be clear-cut, but a neutral observer would say that some small doubts were creeping in. Laurie Oakes today has a extraordinary strong attack on Tony Abbott
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/min ... 1a3b155bae
Most of the inspection so far has been on the Government and they have struggled to pass, but will Tony Abbott do any better under close examination? This week’s statements attacking IMF contributions seemed to indicate a worrying approach to international finance and Mr Abbott seems to have backed himself into a tight corner with his promises to repeal various items of legislation and promising another election if and when he wins.
So the endless possibilities are there: Will the PM survive, will Mr Abbott survive? Who would take over if they don’t? For Labor, the only realistic candidates ATM are Stephen Smith, Kevin Rudd and Greg Combet. IMO, Kevin Rudd isn’t a chance unless the polls are dire in another year.
For the Opposition, the obvious candidate is Malcolm Turnbull, who would attract the middle ground, but doesn’t fit the prevailing ideology of the Liberal Party. Joe Hockey? Scott Morrison?
Newspoll was 59/41, it’s now 54/46, so there’s been a major narrowing, especially with perhaps two years to an election.
How about we take off our partisan hats and make some predictions about who the leaders will be at the next election and who will win and by how far?
There is no doubt that until now, the Labor Government was out on its ear at the next election, with the only question being the size of the rout. The PM was (and still is) at record lows and the only glimmer of hope was that the Leader of the Opposition wasn’t much more popular.
Positive publicity for the Government was almost non-existent and the situation looked set in concrete, the only factor being to wait for the next election, whether that was two years or two months away.
If there was an election now, the result would still be clear-cut, but a neutral observer would say that some small doubts were creeping in. Laurie Oakes today has a extraordinary strong attack on Tony Abbott
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/min ... 1a3b155bae
Most of the inspection so far has been on the Government and they have struggled to pass, but will Tony Abbott do any better under close examination? This week’s statements attacking IMF contributions seemed to indicate a worrying approach to international finance and Mr Abbott seems to have backed himself into a tight corner with his promises to repeal various items of legislation and promising another election if and when he wins.
So the endless possibilities are there: Will the PM survive, will Mr Abbott survive? Who would take over if they don’t? For Labor, the only realistic candidates ATM are Stephen Smith, Kevin Rudd and Greg Combet. IMO, Kevin Rudd isn’t a chance unless the polls are dire in another year.
For the Opposition, the obvious candidate is Malcolm Turnbull, who would attract the middle ground, but doesn’t fit the prevailing ideology of the Liberal Party. Joe Hockey? Scott Morrison?
Newspoll was 59/41, it’s now 54/46, so there’s been a major narrowing, especially with perhaps two years to an election.
How about we take off our partisan hats and make some predictions about who the leaders will be at the next election and who will win and by how far?
