Federal Election Predictions

[fish]

Well with the Federal election a little over two weeks away I reckon it is time for SAFOOTY posters to stick their necks out and make their predictions on the election result.

Although fish do not actually have necks I am still willing to be the first predictor:

Labour to win with a majority of five seats.
The Greens to gain a second Senator in SA.
Christopher Pyne to be re-elected with a increased majority.
The Greens to win their first ever House of Reps seat: Melbourne.

[Media Park]

Well with the Federal election a little over two weeks away I reckon it is time for SAFOOTY posters to stick their necks out and make their predictions on the election result.

Although fish do not actually have necks I am still willing to be the first predictor:

Labour to win with a majority of five seats.
The Greens to gain a second Senator in SA.
Christopher Pyne to be re-elected with a increased majority.
The Greens to win their first ever House of Reps seat: Melbourne.

My vote not to make a difference, LIBERAL...

Labor will win, Julia being "elected," as opposed to "re-elected."
HOWEVER, there will be a large swing back to the Coalition, and they'll get back in the next election.
Bob Brown to become the Kingmaker for the next few years.
On Pyne, I think he'll be around for a long time (sorry guys), and will one day lead the Libs (again sorry guys).
In my electorate, Rowan Ramsey won't win, he'll s*** it in...

[Brucetiki]

I predict Labor will win, and Pyne to lose his seat.
The Greens will gain another SA senate seat - Family First have made a fatal error putting Bob Day as their lead candidate leaving the door wide open for the Greens.
Interstate (particularly WA, NSW and Qld) there will be Labor losses, but not enough to gain power.

In my electorate (Wakefield), Nick Champion (on the back of strong votes to him south of Gawler) will be re-elected comfortably.

[dedja]

... and Pyne to lose his seat.

[Sojourner]

As above, I think Labor will win fairly comfortably albeit with a reduced majority.

The Greens could well win an additional seat on Labor preferences yet this time they dont have Nick Xenephon preferences or Democrat preferences running there way which got them there last time, yet by the same token Liberal - National preferences have to go somewhere as well and its likely they would go towards Family First over the Greens, yet I do think that the bubble has largely burst for Family First in the Federal Arena after the nations experience with Steve Fielding!

A pity that Dignity for the Disabled are not running a candidate as they would be a good chance of swinging a preference deal over Family First from the two major parties which could get them in as was the case here in SA!

Dont think any SA seats will change hands, if the leaderships of the two parties thought that was going to be the case they would have Gillard and Abbot here on the ground more than just once each by now!

Will likely vote for Tony Zappia in the lower house and probably the independent candidate that looks the best chance of winning in the Senate.

[mick]

Liberal will win the election by winning of key marginal seats in QLD, NSW and WA. It is likely Liberal will not get 50% 2PP but will pick up enough seats to form government in the states where Labor is on the nose and mining is important. In SA Pyne will lose his seat and maybe Boothby will also change hands. Raving Looney Party will hold balance of power in the Senate in their own right. In my electorate of Adelaide beautiful Kate will be re-elected.

Further prediction.......

Winter 2012, with Abbott on the nose, Turnbull takes over as PM.

By the way I having nothing against Pyne, the fact he is so reviled by the pink champagne set means he must be an effective politician

[am Bays]

With the redistribution of seats prior to the election labor holds 88 (83) seats, the coalition 59 (65) Independants 3 (2) (( ) = state of teh parties after the 2007 election).

With a 2% uniform swing required I can't see the Coalition picking up enough seats to win govt, especially when they've preselected a 20 year old kid in one of the key marginals in Qld.

In WA Labor was on the nose in the last fed election so Liberals will be lucky to pick up one seat there despite the fact they will arguably increase their 2PP preferred vote.

It will come down to NSW and Qld and i can't see enough seats changing hands despite incumpancy for the coalition in seats that are notionally Labor. Labor will hold their own in VIC and SA. I can't see any seats changing hands in SA despite the facts we have weed infested monuments to the building for Schools projects throughout the seat of Kingston.

So my prediction is labour 77-79, Coalition 68-70 Independants 3*.

Greens to win the balance of power in the senate.

* Lindsay Tanner's seat of Melbourne to go to the Greens, in the last state election the seat of Melbourne Greens finished 2nd in the primary vote. Don't be surprised if this seat goes green as in 2007 it went to preferences and the margin is only 4.7 and with no sitting member running this time.

[Squawk]

Anyone dare to try and predict the outcomes of the election in the Solomon Islands?

[Booney]

I predict Labour will return to power in an overwhelmingly dull, boring and uninspiring race that the public of Australia will show little or no interest in.

[redandblack]

Mick, I need some clarification on your last post.

Are the pink champagne set the same people who are the latte sippers, or are they a different lot

[gossipgirl]

... and Pyne to lose his seat.

I really hope so, I am so sick of receiving crap in the mail from him, his wife, kids, girlfirends, boyfriends, pet dogs, pet cats and the final straw was from his pet rock All the money that is wasted by political parties is shocking

[Rik E Boy]

We will vote away the rights of millions to stop a thousand boaties and become the biggest laughing stock of the world since George W Bush was voted in for a second term in 2004.

Gillard will get absolutey caned in Qld cos we are a bunch of rednecks. Stopping the boats! Bloody brilliant! I'm wondering when Pauline Hanson will be joining the Liberal Party. KRudd was a Qld man so even people who aren't raving rednecks (maybe 10% of the Qld electorate) will think about voting for Abbott who will resurrect Workchoices as soon as he gets the chance.

I don't trust either but I'd rather pay taxes for health, infratructure and even my unemployed buddies before I'd cast a vote that could erode the working conditions of my children. I can argue my own case but will they be able to?

**** Nation. Abbott will win this election. Because he'll stop the boats.

regards,

REB

[Interceptor]

We will vote away the rights of millions to stop a thousand boaties and become the biggest laughing stock of the world since George W Bush was voted in for a second term in 2004.

Gillard will get absolutey caned in Qld cos we are a bunch of rednecks. Stopping the boats! Bloody brilliant! I'm wondering when Pauline Hanson will be joining the Liberal Party. KRudd was a Qld man so even people who aren't raving rednecks (maybe 10% of the Qld electorate) will think about voting for Abbott who will resurrect Workchoices as soon as he gets the chance.

I don't trust either but I'd rather pay taxes for health, infratructure and even my unemployed buddies before I'd cast a vote that could erode the working conditions of my children. I can argue my own case but will they be able to?

Dumb-**** Nation. Abbott will win this election. Because he'll stop the boats.

Qld might have a big redneck/bogan population, but is there any real indication that so many people care that much about the issue? It's been massively overblown for years by sensationalist media reporting and taken onboard that way by the major parties. I'm pretty sure most people care a great deal more about their day to day issues like working conditions and what's in their pay packet.

Additionally, even if the Coalition win, they'll face blockage in the senate and so won't have much hope of changes in work place relations.

[Media Park]

Isn't that the perfect world guys?

Liberal in, stop the boats, no WorkChoices, and Pyne to lose his seat!

Everyone's happy..

[Leaping Lindner]

Isn't that the perfect world guys?

Liberal in, stop the boats, no WorkChoices, and Pyne to lose his seat!

Everyone's happy..

I think there is something wrong with me but i don't have a problem with 3% of our refugee intake coming in on boats.

[fish]

I think there is something wrong with me but i don't have a problem with 3% of our refugee intake coming in on boats.

...and 5 times as many people enter Australia illegally via plane than arrive by boat?

Oh hang on they are mostly white people no problem!!

Apparantly

[Q.]

Isn't that the perfect world guys?

Liberal in, stop the boats, no WorkChoices, and Pyne to lose his seat!

Everyone's happy..

If only life was so black and white...

[Media Park]

Isn't that the perfect world guys?

Liberal in, stop the boats, no WorkChoices, and Pyne to lose his seat!

Everyone's happy..

If only life was so black and white...

Never easy is it???

[bulldogproud2]

The Liberal Party to gain power based on how they have scared people about Australia's debt.
Being just 4% of GDP, it is really equivalent to a person on a wage of $100 000 taking out a $4 000 loan. The alternative to this was heading into a 'deep prolonged recession' as Tony Abbott himself stated in May last year.
Oh, the fear about the 'wastage' re the BER will also help them gain power. A project that had a 97% approval rate. Okay, there was a bit of wastage but at least it meant we did not enter a recession and see unemployment reach 12% as Abbott predicted.
Unfortunately neither party really deserve to be in government due to their inhumane response to asylum seekers.

[Gozu]

After Hockey's gaffe in the Treasurer's Debate today & those Labor ads (Costello rubbishing Abbott's economic credentials) beginning to sink in I expect the polls will start to move even further in favour of Labor.