SA Footy

11 Candidates are going up for election in the Mayo By-Election, Labor are not standing a candidate, so its fairly difficult to see how the Liberal Party can lose this one!

I would like to see an independant get up and win it, yet I think that in such a safe Liberal seat it is highly unlikely!

Still it was interesting to see the DLP - Democratic Labor Party are having a go at it, having won a seat in the Vic legislative council the party seems to be looking at making a return to Australian Politics. Considering the list of parties that have to be last on Labor & Liberal parties lists, eventually someone like the DLP has to scoop the bulk of the preferences which is what I think got them in last time?

Lynton Vonow, The Greens;
Rachael Barons, Conservatives for Climate and Environment;
Bill Spragg, Independent;
Mathew Keizer, One Nation;
Mary Brewerton, Independent;
Andrew Castrique, Australian Democrats;
Jamie Briggs, Liberal;
Malcolm King, Independent;
Bob Day, Family First;
David McCabe, Democratic Labor Party;
Diane Bell, Independent

Since this by-election on saturday there has been so much talk of how Briggs has had such a big swing against the Libs in their primary vote. I am a Liberal voter from Mayo and whilst is is true there has been a swing against my party of choice we have to look at the nature of the by-election before we can say that Mayo is no longer a safe Blue Ribbon seat.

1st of all, the electorate seems fairly unhappy with the sitting member retiring to take up his post in Croatia and not serve his term in opposition. A fair reason for some to vote against the Libs and no doubt a factor in the swing but by the next federal election it will be forgotten.

2nd, Due to the ALP not runnning a candidate The Greens have picked up a lot of votes that Labor would have usually taken. And as by-elections are usually fought on local rather than national issues The Greens, Di Bell and Bill Spragg would have picked up votes due to their campaigning on the Murray which are unlikely to pull such a large vote come national election time.

3rd, Family First have picked up a lot of votes from those who want Bob Day after the Liberal preselction saga, again i expect this will pass, and most of these votes preference the Libs anyway, therefore FF are hardly a problem for the Liberals.

4th, Nick Xenophons public backing of Di Bell would have pushed a lot of votes her way, but by the time the whole country comes to vote in an election the role of such independents diminishes in the lower house. In a federal election people are voting for a party to form government, It is very much a case of Kevin Rudd versus whoever the Coalition have at the helm at that time. People will vote differently and more votes are likely to be directed towards the Major Parties.

Mayo is still in my mind a safe Liberal Seat in the long term, the backlash i believe was not against the Coalition or Briggs but probably more against the major parties and the way in which they dominate politics.