The South Australian Political Landscape

[Trader]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

[Jimmy_041]

OK, here are the base of my theory

The SA Budget is a disaster and has been for the past 7 years but let's stick to this administration (ie) from March 2014

The government has not got even close to one important target and it is propped up by GST and asset sales
I'm quite happy to show a performance chart later

Anyway: why the Bank Tax?

In every one of the four last budgets, the government have used creative accounting, sold assets, included extra GST and moved funds from the agencies (eg) MAC to create some manufactured result to appear as if it is actually achieving something, whilst increasing overall debt by a further $3Bn in the past 3 years. In other words, the $2.759Bn that they transferred from MAC accounts to General Govt accounts has disappeared and we have a further $3Bn in debt. They also received an additional GST but I'll address that later. But what is important is the manipulation of the Tax Effort ratios to obtain that extra GST. That's why they dont put in for infrastructure grants.

Notwithstanding the creative accounting, each budget promises blue sky ahead and every time they fail to achieve their targets.

On top of that;
1) highest unemployment in the nation.
2) highest electricity prices in the world
3) blackouts across the state
4) rolling blackouts
5) increase in all levies
6) abuse of vulnerable people in our society
7) highest youth unemployment
Transforming health
9) keeping secret of the Oakden royal commission
10) burst water mains almost every week.
11) Gillman - that's about to come out - there were 5 tenders when we were told there no other ones and what happens if the tender price is way over what they sold it for?

They have started the election phase with all of the above and know they are in trouble
Their modus operandi is to create deflections

So what would you do?

Create the biggest deflection ever thought of: a bank tax
Suddenly, no-one is scrutinising any other part of the budget (except me)
Most people have forgotten about all the other woes
They are already campaigning on the bank tax and making the election about it because they have nothing else

I'll make some other points:
I discussed all of this with an- ex senior politician on the weekend who would know. He said they shouldn't oppose the bank tax because it will set a precedent for oppositions to oppose budgets from now on, and SA will end up like the commonwealth and be in stalemate for time memorial. That is not what SA needs.
Despite the governments talk, the tax is probably unconstitutional as it applies on a national basis. I'll wont go into it any further for times sake, but I've heard enough people say that it probably is and they would lose the High Court case. That case would be made and funded by the banks and they would do it. They have too much to lose and the cost would be relatively cheap. In constitutional terms, it would be immense as it goes to States taxing ability.
In the meantime, everyone is still talking about it, and the facile media would fuel it everyday for the next 9 months until election day.
Like everyone, the opposition are well aware that this tax is going to cripple the state economy even further. Labor knows it / banks know it / SA business knows it. But, so what! We are talking about cornered rats who are only concerned with their own jobs. In the totalitarianism model, the good of the people comes second to the needs of the political class.
Election comes and goes and the big deception works. Everyone has concentrated on the bank tax and their appalling performance over the past 4 years is totally over-shadowed by the "bank tax"

Labor get re-elected. Too bad that they've spent $50m on legal fees. $50m (of our money) is a spit in the ocean to them. They win - that's all that matters to them. They have nothing else.

Labor have already brought out the caricatures of Marshall being with the banks. They have been feverishly working on countering whatever the Liberals did

What would you rather campaign on: 1 - 11 above, or whether the banks tax goes through?
Like the mining tax, the banks and business in general would have howled it down as economic stupidity.
Now, every time the unemployment goes up or any other social or economic disaster is uncovered, Weatherill and Koutsantonis are going to be running around talking about the bank tax

I would have let the budget go through. This is a deception and the Liberals fell for it

[bennymacca]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

It's not actually that simple

I work in federal PS but we have had a massive restructure. And the amount of executive level staff has been cut drastically

Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar in the state PS

[bennymacca]

Interesting reading jimmy.

One thing I'll say is - do you reckon cooking the books to make it sound like everything is better is solely an SA govt problem?

The federal govt has been doing it for years. Go look at the wages growth projections that they have used.

And weren't we supposed to be in surplus by now? It is a continuing 3-5 year away proposition and will be forever.

[heater31]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

It's not actually that simple

I work in federal PS but we have had a massive restructure. And the amount of executive level staff has been cut drastically

Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar in the state PS

As a recent inductee into the State PS there are a huge number over 55 and waiting for the next round of packages to come up. To me that is just selfish by the employees as they close the position and the business unit loses that spot that delivers front line services. Just resign and **** off so some new blood can get in and not just collect a pay check.

[Jimmy_041]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

It's not actually that simple

I work in federal PS but we have had a massive restructure. And the amount of executive level staff has been cut drastically

Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar in the state PS

Maybe so, but the employee numbers and direct costs mean it is achieving nothing, all whilst they were promising real cuts to both

Here is the General Govt sector 2011 - 2020 cost

[Jimmy_041]

In the 2014 Budget, they set $7.554Bn as the Employee Expenses for 2017-18.

The 2017-18 budget now has it at $8.272Bn

Over $700m extra for one year only and these people complain they have no money to spend

[Jimmy_041]

Interesting reading jimmy.

One thing I'll say is - do you reckon cooking the books to make it sound like everything is better is solely an SA govt problem?

The federal govt has been doing it for years. Go look at the wages growth projections that they have used.

And weren't we supposed to be in surplus by now? It is a continuing 3-5 year away proposition and will be forever.

I wouldn't expect anything less from you

[bennymacca]

I am just saying that it's a common theme

[bennymacca]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

It's not actually that simple

I work in federal PS but we have had a massive restructure. And the amount of executive level staff has been cut drastically

Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar in the state PS

As a recent inductee into the State PS there are a huge number over 55 and waiting for the next round of packages to come up. To me that is just selfish by the employees as they close the position and the business unit loses that spot that delivers front line services. Just resign and **** off so some new blood can get in and not just collect a pay check.

I am coming up against that too

[Jimmy_041]

I am just saying that it's a common theme

I asked if someone would like to hear my theory on what this SA bank tax is all about and have given some background as to my reasoning
If you think I'm wrong then so be it

What is happening anywhere else is irrelevant.

[Ian]

Yup it's fairly simply.

You can act tough all you like and say last year we cut 10,000 out of 80k government jobs, but when you hired 11,000 new ones at the same time, overall the sector continued to swell!

It's not actually that simple

I work in federal PS but we have had a massive restructure. And the amount of executive level staff has been cut drastically

Wouldn't surprise me if it was similar in the state PS

As a recent inductee into the State PS there are a huge number over 55 and waiting for the next round of packages to come up. To me that is just selfish by the employees as they close the position and the business unit loses that spot that delivers front line services. Just resign and **** off so some new blood can get in and not just collect a pay check.

If they are anything like me benny, the only way they could afford to retire is with a package.

In 1996 I left my job as a Diesel Mechanic to start my current position.

At the time my position was earning the same amount as the workshop supervisors at a number of larger truck dealer's workshops so it was a pretty good step up in pay, on top of that we were understaffed and there was regular opportunity for overtime.

21 years later tells a very different story, since then we have had a reclassification to a higher pay level (which took over 15 years to get and ended up requiring a heap of study) and we now earn less than the mechanics working on the floor in those same workshops. For the last 10 or so years the opportunity for overtime has been pretty much non existent, I've possibly earned a extra $2 -3000 in overtime over that period, plenty of TOIL if you want it but no pay.

If the job I do wasn't one that I really enjoyed doing and if I didn't believe I was making a positive impact for SA, I wouldn't still be there.

Edit* when I started I was away from home 1 in 6 or 7 weeks, now it's 1 in 2 to 4 weeks, not often I'm home for a full 2 weeks now.

[Dogwatcher]

Jay's Lithium

I'm so happy,
Cos today I found my friend,
He's in the sun,
My polls are ugly but that’s okay, cos so are yours,
We’ve made a big call,
Battery power is everyday for all I care,
And I’m not scared,
No lighting candles any more,
Cause I’ve found Elon,
Hey, hey, hey.

[Booney]

[Jimmy_041]

We're going to have 8 months of these good news stories ala Gillman

Most will end up like this: http://tinyurl.com/yatx6urp

[morell]

OK, here are the base of my theory

The SA Budget is a disaster and has been for the past 7 years but let's stick to this administration (ie) from March 2014

The government has not got even close to one important target and it is propped up by GST and asset sales
I'm quite happy to show a performance chart later

Anyway: why the Bank Tax?

In every one of the four last budgets, the government have used creative accounting, sold assets, included extra GST and moved funds from the agencies (eg) MAC to create some manufactured result to appear as if it is actually achieving something, whilst increasing overall debt by a further $3Bn in the past 3 years. In other words, the $2.759Bn that they transferred from MAC accounts to General Govt accounts has disappeared and we have a further $3Bn in debt. They also received an additional GST but I'll address that later. But what is important is the manipulation of the Tax Effort ratios to obtain that extra GST. That's why they dont put in for infrastructure grants.

Notwithstanding the creative accounting, each budget promises blue sky ahead and every time they fail to achieve their targets.

On top of that;
1) highest unemployment in the nation.
2) highest electricity prices in the world
3) blackouts across the state
4) rolling blackouts
5) increase in all levies
6) abuse of vulnerable people in our society
7) highest youth unemployment
Transforming health
9) keeping secret of the Oakden royal commission
10) burst water mains almost every week.
11) Gillman - that's about to come out - there were 5 tenders when we were told there no other ones and what happens if the tender price is way over what they sold it for?

They have started the election phase with all of the above and know they are in trouble
Their modus operandi is to create deflections

So what would you do?

Create the biggest deflection ever thought of: a bank tax
Suddenly, no-one is scrutinising any other part of the budget (except me)
Most people have forgotten about all the other woes
They are already campaigning on the bank tax and making the election about it because they have nothing else

I'll make some other points:
I discussed all of this with an- ex senior politician on the weekend who would know. He said they shouldn't oppose the bank tax because it will set a precedent for oppositions to oppose budgets from now on, and SA will end up like the commonwealth and be in stalemate for time memorial. That is not what SA needs.
Despite the governments talk, the tax is probably unconstitutional as it applies on a national basis. I'll wont go into it any further for times sake, but I've heard enough people say that it probably is and they would lose the High Court case. That case would be made and funded by the banks and they would do it. They have too much to lose and the cost would be relatively cheap. In constitutional terms, it would be immense as it goes to States taxing ability.
In the meantime, everyone is still talking about it, and the facile media would fuel it everyday for the next 9 months until election day.
Like everyone, the opposition are well aware that this tax is going to cripple the state economy even further. Labor knows it / banks know it / SA business knows it. But, so what! We are talking about cornered rats who are only concerned with their own jobs. In the totalitarianism model, the good of the people comes second to the needs of the political class.
Election comes and goes and the big deception works. Everyone has concentrated on the bank tax and their appalling performance over the past 4 years is totally over-shadowed by the "bank tax"

Labor get re-elected. Too bad that they've spent $50m on legal fees. $50m (of our money) is a spit in the ocean to them. They win - that's all that matters to them. They have nothing else.

Labor have already brought out the caricatures of Marshall being with the banks. They have been feverishly working on countering whatever the Liberals did

What would you rather campaign on: 1 - 11 above, or whether the banks tax goes through?
Like the mining tax, the banks and business in general would have howled it down as economic stupidity.
Now, every time the unemployment goes up or any other social or economic disaster is uncovered, Weatherill and Koutsantonis are going to be running around talking about the bank tax

I would have let the budget go through. This is a deception and the Liberals fell for it

Or?

They've overspent trying to buy votes and need more cash to keep the lights on:

[Jimmy_041]

But they've had all those surpluses mate

FY 17: $239m
FY 18: $72m
FY 19: $132m
FY 20: $193m
FY 21: $462m

Losing the Bank Tax of $90m pa or $284m over 2018-21 means nothing
Hey, those nasty Federal education and health cuts kick in as well?
But, we're still in surplus?

It all adds up to Alan Bond

[Jimmy_041]

Foley making a c*** of himself again

Someone nailed it on Indaily "Relevance Deprivation Syndrome"

[shoe boy]

How impressive is the new hospital , I had a chance to look through and we should all be proud .

[Booney]

How impressive is the new hospital , I had a chance to look through and we should all be proud .

Heading in for a full tour on Wednesday but the parts I've seen so far certainly make the old RAH look so antiquated it's not funny, even the most recent TQEH development completed around 7 or 8 years ago looks aged now.