Is it over for Rann?

[Jimmy_041]

We agree on that point

[Jimmy_041]

Redmond cuts Rann's lead in South Australia by half 100 days out from poll

Michael Owen, SA political reporter From: The Australian December 17, 2009 12:00AM

SOUTH Australian Labor's seemingly impenetrable lead in the polls has suffered a blow, with a resurgent Liberal opposition closing the gap less than 100 days before the state election.

Amid the furore of Premier Mike Rann's alleged affair with a waitress, the Isobel Redmond-led opposition has halved Labor's two-party-preferred 12 percentage point lead.

The Liberal Party trails Labor by 47 per cent to 53 per cent, according to the latest Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian in October, November and this month.

This covers the period following the October 1 alleged assault on Mr Rann by the estranged husband of Michelle Chantelois, a mother-of-two and former parliamentary waitress who later claimed to have had a steamy sexual affair with the Premier. Mr Rann had denied any affair.

However, analysis of the latest Newspoll reveals there has been no significant dent in the Premier's personal satisfaction rating, which remains stable at 50 per cent.

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This comes as Ms Redmond records the strongest satisfaction level, at 51 per cent, of any of the three opposition leaders installed by the party since Rob Kerin led the Liberals to the disastrous 2006 election.

With the state due to go to the polls on March 20, Ms Redmond's satisfaction level has jumped by eight points and Labor's primary support has dropped.

At 37 per cent, Labor's primary vote has fallen by four points to its lowest level since the Rann government was returned for a second term in a landslide 2006 election victory.

Primary support for the Liberals is up two points on the poll conducted in July and August, to 35 per cent, while primary support for the Greens continues to edge back up to 12 per cent, one point shy of its 13 per cent peak a year ago.

Liberal hardheads and Ms Redmond can now breathe a little easier over the Christmas-New Year break. Ms Redmond has worked hard during the past six months on developing a united team after the fake ALP document affair cost former leader Martin Hamilton-Smith his job in July.

The switch to a female leader appears to have paid dividends.

The 56-year-old mother of three has recorded a satisfaction level of 51 per cent, three points higher than Mr Hamilton-Smith's best result. His predecessor Iain Evans could only manage a personal best of 36 per cent.Dissatisfaction with the performance of Ms Redmond also increased in this Newspoll by eight points to 18 per cent. About a third of South Australian voters -- 31 per cent -- remain uncommitted.

Mr Rann, who has suffered through arguably the lowest point of his political career,retains a stable voter satisfaction rating of 50 per cent. Those dissatisfied with his performance as premier dropped in this Newspoll by two points to 38 per cent, while 12 per cent are uncommitted. He enjoys a comfortable 17-point lead over Ms Redmond as preferred premier, sitting on 48 per cent to the Opposition Leader's 31 per cent.

[Jimmy_041]

Ms Redmond must really have them rattled

LAINIE ANDERSON
December 27, 2009 12:00am

I CHANGED my name from Barnes to Anderson when I got married a few years back, and took on the honorific "Mrs".

Nothing particularly startling about that - some women do and some women don't. It was just that my twins were 18 months old at the time and already had Max's surname, so I kept it simple and changed my name too.

"Mrs Anderson" is now a name I'm proud to call my own.

But something weird is happening in politics that's making me think our state Labor leaders don't share my respect for the term.

Recently, the State Government has stopped referring to Isobel Redmond as the Leader of the Opposition, or as Liberal leader, or even by her name of Isobel Redmond. They've started calling her simply - and almost only - "Mrs Redmond".

I'll give you an example. A media release issued by Mineral Resources Minister Paul Holloway on Tuesday had the headline: "Mrs Redmond's big stick to scare off investors."

And nearly every State Government media release mentioning the Opposition Leader last week was the same.

"Mrs Redmond has announced that, if elected, she will sell 140 hectares of land at Gepps Cross that is currently home to States Sports Park . . ." said Sports Minister Michael Wright in a release about sports funding.

"I call on Mrs Redmond to back up these ludicrous claims with some hard facts . . ." said Health Minister John Hill in a release about the Liberal plan to rebuild the Royal Adelaide Hospital at its current site.

Here's the rub. Liberal leader Isobel Redmond does not refer to herself as "Mrs". She has always used the professional honorific "Ms". She has also been amicably separated from her husband for more than five years.

On Wednesday, Premier Mike Rann's media adviser Jill Bottrall said the use of Mrs Redmond in media releases, without reference in the first instance to Liberal leader or Opposition Leader or even Isobel Redmond, was not deliberate and "not something I would sanction".

"If someone is doing that I will pull them up on it . . . it's an oversight," she said. Wise move - and she might also want to have a chat to Treasurer Kevin Foley who repeatedly bandies about the term "Mrs Redmond" like the Leader of the Opposition is some apron-toting housewife who wants to play politics.

Used in this way (and NOT, I stress, normally) the "Mrs Redmond" line stinks. It's a put down - both to her and to the position of the Leader of the Opposition. It's desperate.

And I'm not the only one who's noticed.

"Another fascinating aspect of this week's attack-Redmond strategy has been the consistent reference to Mrs Redmond," journalist Michael Owen wrote in last week's Weekend Australian. "Some observers believe the strategy is to contrast Rann's statesman image with a dowdy picture of a Mrs Redmond who lives alone in the Adelaide Hills." After six months in the top job, Ms Redmond has proven herself to be a worthy and intelligent opponent for Labor's male-dominated line-up. Most importantly for South Australians craving a robust political landscape, she's also improving the Liberals' woeful polling.

The most recent Newspoll gave her the highest personal rating for any opposition leader since the 2006 election. She has also halved the Rann Government's two-party-preferred lead (it's now 47 per cent versus 53 per cent).

But that shouldn't come as any surprise. It's not like tough, clever women are a rarity in politics these days. Take Julia Gillard, Penny Wong and Julie Bishop in the federal sphere, for starters, or Queensland Premier Anna Bligh. Women married, unmarried, Ms and Mrs - have been carving out their rightful place in our houses of parliament for more than 100 years. Former UK Prime Minister Maggie Thatcher is just about the scariest politician I can recall.

So for South Australia's Labor politicians to get suddenly confused about female honorifics and opposition job titles is rude at best, chauvinistic at worst.

In last week's Weekend Australian Magazine, New Zealand film-maker Jane Campion was asked for her thoughts on sexism. "I actually think sexism is stronger today," she said, "but less transparent."

In the 21st century, let's hope it's not sneaking into Labor's pre-election campaign. It's not a good look.

Love the JB comment - Sheer coincidence that they are all doing it. If it was the other way around, it would be a typical "smear and gutter tactic because the Liberals have no policies" (maybe so - Labor keep pinching them out of their kitbag!!)

[dedja]

Media Mike has a new nickname ...

He may live in the United States but it seems tennis legend John McEnroe keeps abreast of SA current events.

This afternoon, Premier Mike Rann introduced the controversial former world number one to a packed press conference.

McEnroe replied with: "Thanks Ranndy."

http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/stor ... 01,00.html

[Interceptor]

Haha, classic

[Gozu]

Mike Rann writing for the News Ltd blog The Punch, "Making our cities better by design":

http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/mak ... by-design/

[fish]

Well it has now been two or so months since this story broke and the odds for the election win are pretty well the same as they have been for the last year or so...

LABOR 1.16
LIBERAL 4.75

[Gozu]

Bit of a beat up but still, "Armstrong and Rann and the Tour Down Under funder":

http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/01/18/arm ... er-funder/

[fish]

Two months on and the odds for the winner of the next state election have hardly changed:

LABOR 1.16 out from 1.14 in November.
LIBERAL 4.75 in from 5.10 in November.

Looks like this controversy has been a bit of a storm in a tea cup, at least as far as the bookies and punters are concerned.

[Psyber]

Two months on and the odds for the winner of the next state election have hardly changed:

LABOR 1.16 out from 1.14 in November.
LIBERAL 4.75 in from 5.10 in November.

Looks like this controversy has been a bit of a storm in a tea cup, at least as far as the bookies and punters are concerned.

Those figures may not reflect the true state of opinion as they are selected to some extent by which social classes are punters, and use bookies at all...

[redandblack]

Psyber

[Psyber]

Psyber

Is there a fallacy in my statement?

[redandblack]

I'm not quite sure where to start, mate.

I don't want to write a book, but bookmakers take all factors possible into account when framing a market. The odds thay are quoting here are for a two horse race where one is an overwhelming favourite.

I suppose the main factor that might surprise you is that gambling isn't the preserve of any particular 'social class', but is spread over the population. Although the odds reflect the market, they are also very much in line with the opinion polls.

(I did hear a rumour that the pollsters are only polling certain stratas of society, though

[Jimmy_041]

I'm not quite sure where to start, mate.

I don't want to write a book, but bookmakers take all factors possible into account when framing a market. The odds thay are quoting here are for a two horse race where one is an overwhelming favourite.

I suppose the main factor that might surprise you is that gambling isn't the preserve of any particular 'social class', but is spread over the population. Although the odds reflect the market, they are also very much in line with the opinion polls.

(I did hear a rumour that the pollsters are only polling certain stratas of society, though

O-oh - You've caught the Gozu conspiracies everywhere bug.

I think you will find it will e closer than you think. If Rann is pulling the "poor me - they're being mean to me" stunt, they are getting very worried. They are being found out how inept thet are, and they are worried

[Jimmy_041]

Mind you, NSW proves the people can be idiots for a very long time and get what they deserve

[mick]

I think the Redmond/Liberal odds offer good value. The odds will narrow as we move closer to the election. I agree with Jimmy the kind of stuff coming from Rann and his people at the moment, does not seem to reflect the feeling that they "have it in the bag". It is likely Labor will win but I think it will be a lot closer than these odds suggest. I think there is a real chance the Libs could pick up Hartley, Light, Mawson and Morialta and I think Karlene will lose Chaffey. If Labor win the next election will Rann still be Premier at the end of 2010?

[Psyber]

I'm not quite sure where to start, mate.
I don't want to write a book, but bookmakers take all factors possible into account when framing a market. The odds thay are quoting here are for a two horse race where one is an overwhelming favourite.
I suppose the main factor that might surprise you is that gambling isn't the preserve of any particular 'social class', but is spread over the population. Although the odds reflect the market, they are also very much in line with the opinion polls.
(I did hear a rumour that the pollsters are only polling certain stratas of society, though

It does actually...
I don't know anyone among my friends who to my knowledge, based on our conversations, bets on anything.
Then none of my friends, to my knowledge, use marijuana, drink to excess, or smoke cigarettes, either, and I'd be surprised if they did without it having ever been mentioned in passing.
I can't exclude the possibility that some of my casual acquaintances do though.

The medical literature, in the addiction medicine area, suggests drinking to excess, smoking, and gambling, tend to go together.
It is rather interesting - I'll keep an eye on any studies that pop up in the journals I read.
It is not an area I've ever paid much attention to...

[Psyber]

I think the Redmond/Liberal odds offer good value. The odds will narrow as we move closer to the election. I agree with Jimmy the kind of stuff coming from Rann and his people at the moment, does not seem to reflect the feeling that they "have it in the bag". It is likely Labor will win but I think it will be a lot closer than these odds suggest. I think there is a real chance the Libs could pick up Hartley, Light, Mawson and Morialta and I think Karlene will lose Chaffey. If Labor win the next election will Rann still be Premier at the end of 2010?

My main Labor contact says he expects a narrow win for Labor this time and a loss next time around, but is not certain about the narrow win this time.

[redandblack]

The biggest gamblers, of course, are often the people with the most money, or the least.

Kerry Packer springs to mind.

[Psyber]

The biggest gamblers, of course, are often the people with the most money, or the least.
Kerry Packer springs to mind.

But of course money does not equate with class...
[Except perhaps in some forms of poorly thought through statistical frameworks.]