bye bye Mr Rudd

[Grahaml]

Now that the government has closed the gap in the polls (although you must remember this is a very small sample and may be skewed one way or another) we will see an exhibition of politics. The coalition have been among the best ever politicians we have seen in oz, and 11 years of government has taught them a few tricks. Rudd seems to be pretty savvy; he seems to have learned from Latham and Beazley's mistakes. If he can keep Gillard from making gaffes like she seems prone to doing we might see some of the best politics being played for a long time over the next few months until the election.

Unfortunately, it will be all about politics, not policies.

[Psyber]

Now that the government has closed the gap in the polls (although you must remember this is a very small sample and may be skewed one way or another) we will see an exhibition of politics. The coalition have been among the best ever politicians we have seen in oz, and 11 years of government has taught them a few tricks. Rudd seems to be pretty savvy; he seems to have learned from Latham and Beazley's mistakes. If he can keep Gillard from making gaffes like she seems prone to doing we might see some of the best politics being played for a long time over the next few months until the election.

Unfortunately, it will be all about politics, not policies.

Yep...but now is the time to squeeze your nervous local member if you want anything looked at. Mine says openly that what works is enough members of the public worrying enough backbenchers to begin to worry the Ministers!

[overloaded]

Rudd's inexperience was glaringly obvious yesterday. He was mauled by the government in parliament. How could a potential PM be so stupid as to misplace a document so damaging. It is silly enough to request such information (which he should have known anyway) in writing FFS, especially when there are leaks in the party - not a good move.

I get the feeling that whilst Labor have had a good run in the polls of late, the government hasn't even started their scare campaign yet. This f**kup by Rudd gives them a good starting point as Rudd is lacking in credibility in the economy department.

The government haven't even started on Peter Garret yet - that will be interesting.

[mick]

The government haven't even started on Peter Garret yet - that will be interesting.

Really looking forward to that, Garrett would close down industry or make it hard to function profitably and have us all in rickshaws and riding bicycles

[redandblack]

Despite everything they've thrown at him, Rudd is still in landslide territory according to all the polls.

[heater31]

Despite everything they've thrown at him, Rudd is still in landslide territory according to all the polls.

The polls mean sweet FA this far out from an election. There is going to be some good dirt dished out over the next few months

[Coorong]

The government haven't even started on Peter Garret yet - that will be interesting.

Really looking forward to that, Garrett would close down industry or make it hard to function profitably and have us all in rickshaws and riding bicycles

LOL Mick......funny but oh so true

[redandblack]

The government haven't even started on Peter Garret yet - that will be interesting.

Really looking forward to that, Garrett would close down industry or make it hard to function profitably and have us all in rickshaws and riding bicycles

LOL Mick......funny but oh so true

Coorong, if I was a betting man, I'd be happy to wager several bottles of Chivas that we won't all be in rickshaws if Rudd wins

[am Bays]

Coorong, if I was a betting man, I'd be happy to wager several bottles of Chivas that we won't all be in rickshaws if Rudd wins

No Rickshaws, Coorong, but the state will provide free Trabants.....

[Psyber]

Coorong, if I was a betting man, I'd be happy to wager several bottles of Chivas that we won't all be in rickshaws if Rudd wins

No Rickshaws, Coorong, but the state will provide free Trabants.....

But the MPs on both sides will go on diligently testing new Mercedes Benz [or perhaps top end Aust made semi-equivalents] supplied by the taxpayer!

[Hondo]

Don't be fooled by the polls this one will go down to the WIRE

A lot of people speculate on voting for the opposition when the survey mob ring up but then freeze up on polling day and decide better the devil you know

Too close to call this far out IMO

[overloaded]

Your right Hondo, governments lose elections, oppositions dont win them...

The union movement will be Rudd's biggest problem, his attempt to distance himself from the radical union thugs will divide the party (yet again). Who needs unions anyway?

[am Bays]

Don't be fooled by the polls this one will go down to the WIRE

A lot of people speculate on voting for the opposition when the survey mob ring up but then freeze up on polling day and decide better the devil you know

Too close to call this far out IMO

Talking to the brother of a Canberra lobbyist this one is still going down to the wire the polls may suggest otherwise but ATM to those in the know it is neck and neck...

IIRC (R&B can surely correct me) didn't the AC Nielsen poll taken on Friday October 8 2004 predict a Latham Victory??? Funny how the Coalition actually increased doubled their 1.4% margin going into the last election

[redandblack]

TM, I don't know about that 2004 poll, but it is quite likely, as you say.

I have to say I ignore comments by 'insiders' and brothers of lobbyists about what will happen. Nobody knows, including any of us on here. You can only judge by the evidence available and make a considered guess.

I agree that the history of Australian elections is that landslides are very rare. A 2PP vote of 54% or more is a landslide. The evidence available at the moment is that Labor is polling numbers almost never before seen for the ALP and they're polling them consistently now for months. Their vote could drop 2 or 3 % and still be a landslide. For them to lose from here, which can happen, IMO would need something out of the ordinary.

Howards best chances are either Rudd making a monumental blunder or the 'devil you know' factor, as Hondo says.

I doubt that the union factor will make much difference. Hawke and Keating governed for 13 years and the unions lost a lot of power.

As much as we might push our own views on here, none of us knows what will happen, but it will be mighty interesting.

At this stage, either side can win, but the result will almost certainly be between a narrow Howard win or a Rudd landslide.

[overloaded]

Nobody in their right mind wants to see unions get back the power they had in the 80's and 90's. The government know this (so does Rudd thats why he is trying to distance himself) and will use a scare campaign with quotes from wankers like the CFMEU official on the news last night as their spokesman. It will have a big impact on the way people vote. If the government win this election unions will be a thing of the past.

[redandblack]

Only workers' unions or are you including business unions as well.

I'm a member of a business union

The right to join a union is a basic right in any civilised society.

[overloaded]

I meant workers unions - they really are irrelevant in this day and age where we are facing the biggest skills shortage ever known and workers have many choices. IMO Labor need to distance themselves from unions if they are any chance of winning the election (or any election).

[another grub]

I backed Rudd...he had better win $$$$$$

[smac]

Allegedly

Rudd has ordered the 6 state premiers to block any Howard initiatives running into the election. Hardly surprising.

ALP policy is that if they were to win office and subsequently win a second term, they would increase GST to 12.5%.

The sudden backflip by Rann over School Workcover levys and Paramedic wages was ordered, quite agressively, by Rudd.

/Allegedly

[silicone skyline]

What sort of odds does Rudd have on offer, coz i would back howard in.
I believe no matter how much howard is a d!ck, voters don;t have enough confidence to place their vote behind him.
A poll opinion is much less on the conscience than a literal vote.