Doom and Gloom. Talk of a Recession.

[Cambridge Clarrie]

Lies, damned lies & statistics...

[bulldogproud2]

The ABS has always considered one hour a week to be actively employed.
But, agree, you need to look behind the raw unemployment rate and look at the changes in the participation numbers, ie those actively seeking work, and probably then even compare the participation numbers to the number of people of employable age, given this will also change over a medium-longer term.

The current Participation Rate is 65.2%.

This rate had never been achieved before June 2007. It is higher than the participation rate at any stage of a Liberal Government in history, save for a few months in 2007 prior to the election.
The highest participation rate in Australia's history was 65.9% in December 2010.

The following graphs also make for interesting viewing. showing that the total hours of work performed by Australians is very close to an all-time high and is 20% more than a decade ago.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... num=&view=

They also show that full=time work is increasing at a greater rate than part-time work and is currently over five times the level of part-time work.

Cheers

[southee]

Bulldog, you state "Interesting to hear on the news tonight though that the number of people looking to buy a new home is at a three year high at the moment"

So all of these people buying a new home are upgrading to a better home??

Im sure it could not be they are downsizing due to not being able to pay a big mortgage on the loan??

You see this as a positive if that is the way you look at things. I dont, I see people some people selling their homes due to not being able to afford it, the cost of living with higher gas and electricity prices or retired people maybe downsizing and using their equity as a pension due to the share losses they have had in the GFC.

[bulldogproud2]

Southee, the number of people buying their FIRST home is also at a three year high.
Try to put some spin on that one as you did the previous comment

[FlyingHigh]

Bulldog, you state "Interesting to hear on the news tonight though that the number of people looking to buy a new home is at a three year high at the moment"

So all of these people buying a new home are upgrading to a better home??

Im sure it could not be they are downsizing due to not being able to pay a big mortgage on the loan??

You see this as a positive if that is the way you look at things. I dont, I see people some people selling their homes due to not being able to afford it, the cost of living with higher gas and electricity prices or retired people maybe downsizing and using their equity as a pension due to the share losses they have had in the GFC.

And it was the Howard government that oversaw massive rises in household debt.
Fuelled the fire with things like the FHOG (which Labour and state governments of both persausions were stupid enough to do as well) and cut CGT in the late 90's in a time of easy and cheap credit.
Lead to massive debt-fuelled speculation and price booms in housing and other assets, which were all masquerared as good times.

[FlyingHigh]

The ABS has always considered one hour a week to be actively employed.
But, agree, you need to look behind the raw unemployment rate and look at the changes in the participation numbers, ie those actively seeking work, and probably then even compare the participation numbers to the number of people of employable age, given this will also change over a medium-longer term.

The current Participation Rate is 65.2%.

This rate had never been achieved before June 2007. It is higher than the participation rate at any stage of a Liberal Government in history, save for a few months in 2007 prior to the election.
The highest participation rate in Australia's history was 65.9% in December 2010.

The following graphs also make for interesting viewing. showing that the total hours of work performed by Australians is very close to an all-time high and is 20% more than a decade ago.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf ... num=&view=

They also show that full=time work is increasing at a greater rate than part-time work and is currently over five times the level of part-time work.

Cheers

Thanks for the extra info BP.
Still get the feeling things are teetering at the moment, and would be regardless of who was in power.

[bulldogproud2]

No probs, Flying High.

Yes, we are still susceptible to overseas conditions. If China was to slow down its rate of economic growth, we could find ourselves in a fair bit of trouble.
However, given the global economic conditions, Australia is doing remarkably well.

Cheers

[overloaded]

Southee, the number of people buying their FIRST home is also at a three year high.
Try to put some spin on that one as you did the previous comment

Why are house prices going backwards then?

[bulldogproud2]

Southee, the number of people buying their FIRST home is also at a three year high.
Try to put some spin on that one as you did the previous comment

Why are house prices going backwards then?

.. because they are not going backwards.
Housing prices in capital cities have grown by 2% in the last three months, including 1.4% growth in September, the largest increase for over two years, as seen in the article below:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-02/h ... er/4290780

Cheers

[overloaded]

Not in my suburb, they have dropped 5% in the last 12 months

[Psyber]

Not in my suburb, they have dropped 5% in the last 12 months

When the market gets anxious and people are afraid values will drop those with less capacity to cope with that happening hold off.
This affects certain areas more than others - so, in Adelaide, I would expect the inner SE suburbs to be ticking along nicely now while more peripheral areas, or areas not seen as as 'nice", to be struggling still.

I've been following the property market in the Adelaide Hills closely.
There was drop in sales and prices in late 2008 and early 2009, which worked to my benefit when I returned from Melbourne in early 2009.
This was followed by a partial recovery in 2010-11, which collapsed again in early 2012.
(I suspect the "recovery" was an artifact created by the hard work of agents in talking up the local market.)

Now Stirling and Aldgate prices are rising again, property in Hahndorf is beginning to move again though prices are still a bit down.
Mt Barker is still flat for now.

[bulldogproud2]

Not in my suburb, they have dropped 5% in the last 12 months

Maybe not in your suburb, Overloaded, but interestingly it is in Adelaide that housing prices have enjoyed the greatest growth of any capital city.

Cheers

[overloaded]

I think you'll find, with very few exception, most northern suburbs have either dropped in value or had no growth in the last 12 months

[bulldogproud2]

I think you'll find, with very few exception, most northern suburbs have either dropped in value or had no growth in the last 12 months

Quite possibly, and that will happen from time to time. We need another Central premiership to stimulate the northern suburbs economy.
However, it does not take away from the fact that in Australia (and in particular in Adelaide) housing prices have started to rise again on average.

Cheers

[southee]

Not in my suburb, they have dropped 5% in the last 12 months

Yep , my suburb too !

People are asking for what they want but usually getting sometimes less than 30k of what they want for it and just taking it ....

In this economic state at the moment people are looking for bargains .

[Dogwatcher]

Just bought a house out north and I can tell you we paid well under the odds for it.

[GWW]

With the possible deterioration of the economy in the next few years, its going to be interesting to see what happens if/when an Abbott Govt is elected.

I suspect they will want to slash Govt spending to manage debt, but if that happens it could have quite an impact on the state of the economy.

They may have no other option but to maintain Govt spending at a reasonable level. If they didn't do that, we may see a period of recession, and they would quickly become very unpopular.

[bulldogproud2]

Agreed.
Whilst it is a good thing that we are not going through another one, it would be interesting to see how the Liberal Party would handle a Global Financial Crisis like we just had.
I remember Tony Abbott stating at the time of the GFC that Australia would be in double-digit unemployment for the next decade.
Thankfully the economic stimulus ensured that Australia's unemployment rate never went above 5.9%, unlike most Western countries.

Cheers

[overloaded]

The stimulus package created a big hole in what was a healthy surplus. The next government won't have the privilege of spending money on one off donations, library extensions to school and
roof insulation.

[Cambridge Clarrie]

Agreed.
Whilst it is a good thing that we are not going through another one, it would be interesting to see how the Liberal Party would handle a Global Financial Crisis like we just had.
I remember Tony Abbott stating at the time of the GFC that Australia would be in double-digit unemployment for the next decade.
Thankfully the economic stimulus ensured that Australia's unemployment rate never went above 5.9%, unlike most Western countries.

Cheers

Praise Kevin for the economic stimulus. Praise Juliar for the education revolution.

If it weren't for their quick thinking we'd all have been rooned...