International Politics

[RB]

They count everything they have here on election night. The coming back on Monday is to do check counts which invariably find errors (partly why I don't favour counting again and again throughout the night à la the UK). They also have to count postal and dec votes which turn up, and we have until Friday after the election in most jurisdictions to accept postal votes. And then there's the geographical factors to account for.

Most seat results are known on the night in Australia, and for those that are close, you can't move forward with preference distributions for another week, so there'd be no benefit in doing any sort of further counting on the night anyway.

So basically, in Australia we count everything on the night that's worth counting, and if we wanted to be able (for some reason) to declare results on election night or early the next morning, we'd have to make major changes to the electoral system to the detriment of everything else, and even then there's a greater chance of errors.

Potentially there are improvements to be made, but the AEC and Australian elections in general are world leaders and countries like the UK tend, rightly, to ask advice from us, rather than the other way around.

[am Bays]

It's OK RB, I know dedja.

He prefers instant gratification....

[dedja]

It's OK RB, I know dedja.

He prefers instant gratification....

No whistles up my clacker my friend.

Anyway, I like their pageantry and the way the night unfolds. The way they not only accept but embrace the joke candidates is hilarious.

[dedja]

No stuffing around, polls close 10pm last, PM Rishi Sunak resigns and is on his way to formalise it with King Charles III at 10:50am the next morning.

Results of 648 of 650 seats declared.

[Booney]

In what looked to be a win for the far right National Rally Party the French election has gone the way of Spain and England in recent times (and Australia) as the voting public has booted the right wing parties in favor of left leaning.

Projected :

Left-green New Popular Front: 172-192 seats
Emmanuel Macron’s allies: 150-170 seats
Far right National Rally and allies: 132-152 seats

This week, two of the largest countries in Europe have chosen the same path that Spain chose a year ago: rejection of the extreme right and a decisive commitment to a social left that addresses people’s problems with serious and brave policies.

The UK and France have said YES to progress and social advancement and NO to the regression of rights and freedoms. They have said to an agreement or a government with the extreme right.

[mighty_tiger_79]

Far right were never winning France.

But how drawn out is the process, if we had that here Antony Green would be on TV 24/7 for a month

[Jimmy_041]

Far right were never winning France.

But how drawn out is the process, if we had that here Antony Green would be on TV 24/7 for a month

Correct - and France politics will be a mess for the comig years
It would be like the Greens winning the most seats here

[Booney]

What news were you watching? All predictions had them as favorite, as did the betting, and that's why all the news now is "Shock result"

[Jim05]

What news were you watching? All predictions had them as favorite, as did the betting, and that's why all the news now is "Shock result"

There were a lot of people who didn’t quite understand how the French system works. I personally think they have made a mess of things but their objective was to keep Le Pen out and in that they succeeded. I still don’t think Macron will last and there will be plenty of turmoil to come for them still

[RB]

What news were you watching? All predictions had them as favorite, as did the betting, and that's why all the news now is "Shock result" [emoji38]

Media reporting (or at least English language media reporting) ahead of the election was abysmal. People who are otherwise perfectly competent politics reporters are generally useless when it comes to electoral science. I suspect as well that some of the headline predictions probably omitted any nuance that may have been set out within the articles/reports themselves.

The RN were never getting 40% of the vote or more, they never do, the structural and geopolitical factors in France dictate that.

Further, every single French presidential and/or parliamentary election, like clockwork, the far right underperforms compared with polling. You could set your watch to it.

And regardless as to whether there are many withdrawals, everyone who doesn't support the far right coalesces in the final round behind the alternative (see e.g. both of Macron's elections as president).

As for betting markets, they are not reliable predictors of election results generally and no reason why that should be different for France.

Having said all that, I can understand why the casual observer of French politics may have been surprised at the result (i.e. due to dismal journalism in the lead-up).

[dedja]

After a decade of civil war in Syria, which went quiet after the Russians became involved a few years ago, the Assad regime was surprising routed in few short weeks. It probably highlights the current state of weakness in the Russian military, already stretched to the limit with their invasion of Ukraine.

President Bashar al-Assad has fled to Russia, and whilst there is much rejoicing at his regime's fall, there is now great uncertainty on what may happen next and how the political void will be filled.

It adds to an already unstable Middle East.

With tensions in Israel and it's invasion of the Gaza Strip, as well as its ever increasing forced encroachment of the West Bank, together with further tensions in Lebanon, Iran and Yemen amongst others, it could ignite further chaos for the region.

Then potentially adding further fuel is the impending inauguration of Trump ... even God doesn't know what gems he might serve up.

After decades of instability, war and chaos, there's no chance of any improvements soon.

[dedja]

Looks like the Carney led Liberal party has been re-elected in Canada, thanks to the Orange Imbecile across the border.

[RB]

The opposition leader lost his seat. Ouch.