The South Australian Political Landscape

[DOC]

11,537 ballots outstanding

Liberals need 54.2% TPP of outstanding ballots to win

edit - 4,500 enrolled didn't vote, so, approx:

7,307 ballots outstanding

Liberals need 56.9% TPP of outstanding ballots to win (4,004 from 7,307)

Where is that number (no vote cast) from?

[dedja]

I haven't been able to get that info directly from the ECSA, but it has been reported in The Advertiser (I know, I know).

ECSA know exactly how many voted on Saturday, and the pre-polls, so have to wait until the end of the week to finalise postals. Reconciling those numbers against the no. of registered voters accounts for the approx 4,500 who apparently didn't vote.

I've based my analysis on this 4,500 number, arriving at 3,217 uncounted ballots remaining. The Advertiser is claiming that there are only approx 1,790 uncounted ballots, so I don't know where they got that figure from.

I guess we'll find out in the next few days.

[DOC]

Thanks.

[RB]

I'd expect no more than 90% turnout. Later-arriving postals (cf. prepolls) are usually less Liberal-leaning than earlier ones as well, although there probably won't be too many of them. So Labor still look likely.

[dedja]

Thanks.

Here's the details from The Advertiser

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sou ... d6b761bece

”While ECSA data shows there are 27,108 electors enrolled in Dunstan, only 12,779 cast a formal vote on election day (another 304 cast informal votes that are not counted in the tally).

There were 8022 declaration votes received before Saturday – 2543 postal and 5479 pre-poll.

However, postal votes are accepted until seven days after election day.

The commission received 3829 postal vote applications, which suggests up to 1286 people could return their vote this week.

On those figures, more than 4500 people did not cast a vote in the election – indicating lower voter turnout than at the 2022 general election.

[dedja]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

[Booney]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

This election was stolen.

#MDLA Make Dustan Liberal Again

[RB]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

Yep, I doubt there are many ballots remaining at all - just a trickle of postals. Today's count also favoured Labor very slightly. This one is all over. An extremely rare gain of an opposition seat by a sitting government at a by-election.

[dedja]

All over, Libs have conceded.

[dedja]

Can safely declare Labor as the winner now.

Labor 10,583 (50.9%)
Liberal 10,199 (49.1%)

Max ballots outstanding: 1,410

Libs need 1,106 of the remaining 1,410 ballots to win (78.4%), but there is no guarantee that all who registered for postal votes will actually provide a ballot by the deadline.

Unless the Libs can convince the ECSA that something untoward occurred, then there will be no recount as the margin is above the threshold.

This election was stolen.

#MDLA Make Dustan Liberal Again

It’s been more Labor than Lib during my lifetime, hence the recognition to rename in honour of Do Dustan.

[Brodlach]

Only ended up with 300 votes lead

[dedja]

Only ended up with 300 votes lead

Marshall won by less than that last time.

[Dutchy]

He is terrible, his #1 election promise was to get the on/off ramp at Majors Rd/Southern Expressway done and then when Libs didn't get in and Labor took on the project he flipped and ran a campaign against the ramp!

It is a dumb idea, though

It's only needed one way - to be able to head South or get off when coming from the South, don't see the need for people to get on/off going to/from the city.

Currently anyone in Sheidow Park. Flaggy, H/Valley, A/Park needs to etiher get on at Lonsdale or go backwards down the hill to get on at Marion Rd.

You can get on/off at Old Reynella, which is right next to Sheidow/Happy Valley

You can't head South from the Old Reynella exchange

[dedja]

Mali wants to legislate a ban on under 14s joining social media platforms.

Good or stupid idea?

[wenchbarwer]

Mali wants to legislate a ban on under 14s joining social media platforms.

Good or stupid idea?

How on earth do you police that? Stupid idea, political equivalent of clickbait...

[Trader]

Section 51(v) of the Australian Constitution gives the Australian Parliament the power to make laws about 'postal, telegraphic, telephonic, and other like services'.

This includes the internet.

Will be interesting to see how he expects to bring in such a ban when he has no ability to do so via law.

[Jimmy_041]

Mali wants to legislate a ban on under 14s joining social media platforms.

Good or stupid idea?

Good luck with that
Surely that's the parents decision and if they can't enforce a ban, how's Mali going to do it? Probably fine the parents?

Bigger question - is this part of the whole Labor Party v media / mis/disinformation crusade?

Pretty bad state of affairs where the biggest peddlers of mis/disinformation; governments, decide on what it is + the law wont apply to them, politicians or education institutions - because, you know, uni lecturers are so neutral

[dedja]

All puff and wind methinks, he's commissioned a review to make it look like the government is doing something.

As others have mentioned, I agree that it wouldn't be enforceable plus it's the parent's responsibility.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-premier-peter-malinauskas-details-proposed-social-media-ban/news-story/04a59db63b40752c5d3171a243acd9e9


SA premier Peter Malinauskas details proposed social media ban

Social media giants are being urged to work with the state government as it seeks to legislate a ban on children under the age of 14 from the platforms.

Premier Peter Malinauskas said there was growing evidence about the harm social media was having on children’s mental health.

The government has engaged a former High Court chief justice to review the constitutional practicalities of implementing the age ban that Mr Malinauskas said would replicate a similar law enacted in the United States.

“Put simply, we are seeking to replicate what the state of Florida has recently signed into law,” Mr Malinauskas told ABC radio.

The ban would be the first of its kind in Australia.

Under Florida law, children under the age of 14 are prohibited from joining social media platforms, while those aged 14 or 15 need parental consent before signing up.

“We think it is a good thing,” Mr Malinauskas said.

“The motivation for this … is the proliferation of young people using mobile phones and social media has been extreme over the course of the last decade to the extent that they are spending, on average, three to four hours a day on social media and up to eight hours.”

He said that use was having a “deleterious impact” on their mental health.

While acknowledging the complexity in legislating and implementing an age ban, Mr Malinauskas said it would be better if the owners of social media platforms including Facebook or Meta, TikTok and X, worked with his government.

“My message to (the owners) is work with us, not against us,” he said.

“The other area (of complexity) is the matter of law, and that is why we’ve engaged arguably the best mind in the country, particularly around constitutional law, in former chief justice of the High Court who has volunteered his services to advise how to best implement this policy.”

Mr Malinauskas said the same rules and regulations that stop children from accessing betting apps could be used and it was time to take action against social media platforms.

“Let me give you an analogy,” he said.

“If a 13-year-old wakes up this morning in Australia and decides they’re going to download a sports-betting account and try to set up their own account, they won’t be able to do it.

“Now, we’ve been able to achieve it for sports betting or online bookmakers. I think we should be able to achieve it with social media platforms.”

Opposition Leader David Speirs said it was a “worthy pursuit of the premier”.

“If South Australia can lead the nation and perhaps the world, I will be right behind the premier,” he said.

“It will be very interesting to hear the former chief justice’s recommendations when he comes out with them.”

[Jimmy_041]

Good to look like he's doing something

Bit like Wetherill's nuclear RC