Most Common Score

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Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Tue Jan 06, 2009 6:54 pm

From 1897-2008

1st Ranked on 142 occassions = 11.12 (78)
2nd Ranked on 140 occassions = 14.12 (96) & 12.11 (83) & 11.11 (77)

I can also work out the most common score for any venue now the database is complete
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:33 pm

What do you get for the most common points tally? Is it any of those four totals or is it different?
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:46 pm

I'll have to get the some additional code written into the database and get back to you on a final points score rather than a goals/points combination. May take a month or so but will get back to you when I have an answer.

A good idea though!
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Ash59 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:03 am

It would appear on those results that 23 is likely to be the most common number of scoring shots.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:59 pm

I've got scores from 1899 onwards, and including the 1942-1944 combined matches, 23 scoring shots is the winner.

863 times, in fact, broken down as thus:

4.19 (43) 4 times
5.18 (48) 6 times
6.17 (53) 8 times
7.16 (58) 33 times
8.15 (63) 39 times
9.14 (68) 90 times
10.13 (73) 113 times
11.12 (78) 142 times
12.11 (83) 140 times
13.10 (88) 115 times
14.9 (93) 66 times
15.8 (98) 63 times
16.7 (103) 24 times
17.6 (108) 11 times
18.5 (113) 6 times
19.4 (118) 2 times
20.3 (123) Once
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:04 pm

Mark_Beswick wrote:I'll have to get the some additional code written into the database and get back to you on a final points score rather than a goals/points combination. May take a month or so but will get back to you when I have an answer.

A good idea though!


I wouldn't mind knowing what you get, although my calculation was done without 1897 and 1898, but with 1942-44.

I get 79 points as the most common, 234 times. Out of interest, one was in 1942 and as well as 1943.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Ash59 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:16 pm

A bit of mathematical trivia but interesting to look at the frequency of 23 scoring shots matches and the breakdown of goals and points scored. It would be assumed that some sort of bell curve would exist and it does to some extent...

Looking at mirrored scores, the number of 12.11's and 11.12's are about the same and also with 13.10's and 10.13's... However there is quite a disparity with the next two groups. The number of 9.14's is much greater than the numbr of 14.9's. Yet the number of 15.8's is much gretaer than the number of 8.15's. All other mirrored scores are roughly equal (although actual numbers are obviously much lower).

I think Mark mentioned looking at the most common scores by grounds. Would be interesting to guess which ground had the highest most common score - or in fact to rate the grounds from highest to lowest. My guess for highest would be Football Park, given the pattern of high scores in the 70's and 80's when FP was most used.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:07 pm

150 I think of as a high score, so I've gone from there. The most common points score at a particular ground is:

155 points at Adelaide - 11 times
150 points at Adelaide - 9 times
156 and 168 points at Adelaide - 8 times
156 points at Football Park - 8 times
150 and 171 points at Adelaide - 7 times
151 and 156 points at Glenelg - 7 times (combined out of the 14 scores, Glenelg scored 7 of them)

Other grounds most common highest score are:
150 points at Norwood - 6 times
151 points at Unley - 5 times
153 and 155 points at Alberton - 5 times
152, 157 and 158 points at Prospect - 4 times
154, 156, 158 and 171 points at Elizabeth - 4 times
157 points at Thebarton - 4 times
150 points at Noarlunga - 3 times
154, 157 and 163 points at Richmond - 3 times
150, 154, 155, 160, 162 and 167 points at Woodville - 3 times
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Ash59 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:11 am

Hi spell_check,

You looked at it slightly differently to the way I was thinking. I was proposing finding the most common score at each ground, then comparing which one was highest... not looking at a high score and seeing where it occurred most.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:42 pm

Ash59 wrote:Hi spell_check,

You looked at it slightly differently to the way I was thinking. I was proposing finding the most common score at each ground, then comparing which one was highest... not looking at a high score and seeing where it occurred most.


So, in that case, you were right about Football Park :) :

Adelaide - 70 points
Alberton - 74 points
Glenelg - 80 points
Elizabeth - 82 points
Prospect - 82 points
Richmond - 83 points
Norwood - 86 points
Woodville - 88 points
Noarlunga - 89 points, but also 62, 74 and 81 points
Unley - 92 points
Thebarton - 93 points
Football Park - 96 points
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Ash59 » Sun Jan 11, 2009 12:13 pm

Thanks Spell_check.

Some interesting stats there. I was right about Footy Park but I wouldn't have guessed Thebarton as next highest.

Couple of surprises. I would have thought Glenelg would have rated higher than some of the bigger grounds. Also a little surprising that Adelaide has the lowest most common score given the big open spaces and some big scoring games. Having said that, I've always held the belief that if you don't play good direct football, Adelaide is probably the most difficult place to score.

On another note, you mention that 79 points seems to be the most common points tally overall. I would assume that teams scoring exactly 79 points in a match would have a win/loss ratio trending towards 50/50. Rather ironic then that one team scoring 79 points was subject to the biggest loss in SANFL history - 238 points.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:52 pm

There have been more losses with 79 points than wins; the first 12 79 points scores were wins, followed by a draw and then another win. (1899 to 1925 the period)

The only other timespan where 79 has had its' "golden era" was between 1954 and 1968, when it had a 30 wins 12 losses record. Another game in that time was drawn on 79 points. Since 1969, only 25 wins have been achieved with a 79 point tally, 83 losses, and the third game drawn on 79 points which was in 2003 between Norwood and North.

The last 11 scores of 79 points have all been losses. Currently the record for 79 points is: 83 wins 145 losses 6 draws (3 lots of drawn games)
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:03 pm

I got the following most common point score with the database upgrade
79 poins on 235 occassions
82 points on 234 occassions
83 points for 231 occassions

The database can now sort points or game scores for any club at any venue for any quarter
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:13 pm

So does that mean that one 79 point score occured between 1897 and 1898?

Also, do you have the quarter by quarter scores of these two games?

Rd 11 1899 15/7 Torrens 7.10 North 4.8 Alberton
Rd 3 1900 19/5 Port 5.6 West 3.3 Alberton
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:27 pm

May 7, 1989 PA 9.25 (79)
to WT 0.5 (5)
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:30 pm

I only have final score for the Torrens game BUT the rd 4, 1900 game I have the second half (missing qtr 1 and qtr 2 as well_

PA 3.6 then 5.6
WA 1.3 then 3.3

Regards
Mark
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:37 pm

Thanks for that, I tried looking in every newspaper for those two scores but found nothing. :)
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:39 pm

I tried the evening Journal, Critic, Chronicle, Observer, Register, Advertiser, Express & Telegraph and quiz... No Luck

I have a few problems in 1898 and 6 in 1897 - let me know when you have done those years so we can compare and who knows, solves some of each others problems.
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby spell_check » Wed Jan 14, 2009 8:41 pm

What sort of problems? I noticed that in some cases, the scores differ from newspaper, but two newspapers are the same and two are different (but the same as each other).
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Re: Most Common Score

Postby Mark_Beswick » Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:13 pm

The problems were I only got the final scores for six games in 1897 and 3 in 1898 - I managed to get all the other scores for all other games in those seasons.
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