Tour de France
Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 1:03 pmHas anyone else been following/ betting on the Tour de France? Each year I follow it very closely (I love the tactics), and have started putting a few bets on it this year, now that I have an account with Sportsbet.
Before the first mountain stage, I had $1 on Rasmussen to win at $34, he is now the $1.65 favourite!
At that same day I had $2 each way on Rasmussen to win stage 8 at $4.75 (he won!)
Last night I had $2 on Contador to win last night's stage at $6 (he won!) and I also put $2 on Kloden to win the tour at $6.
So my betting is going extremely well so far, so I thought I'd share my thoughts on the rest of the race.
Sportsbet don't have their odds up yet today, but the market for overall winner according to Centrebet is
$1.65 Rasmussen (too short I think - if he doesn't gain any more time over the next two mountain stages, Evans/Kloden can easily make up the deficit on the last time trial)
$2.65 Contador (star of the future, but doesn't seem to be focussed on winning overall this year - eg. in the final few kms last night he was prepared to just sit on Rasmussen's shoulder and get the stage win, rather than attack Rasmussen to try to win back time from him)
$9.00 Evans (only had one bad day so far, can still win if he makes no more mistakes)
$10.00 Kloden (finally his team will be solely riding for him with Vinokourov finally out of the running, so that will help him through the next two mountain stages. Obviously not as strong a climber as the others, but should win the final time trial, but will he win it by enough?)
So I reckon that Evans and Kloden are some value in that market. My bets:
$1 on Evans
$1 on Kloden
Tonight's stage: Another tough mountain stage in the Pyranees.
Soler looks very good value at $7. With Rasmussen and Contador more worried about each other and the overall classifications, and with both now having an individual stage win, there isn't much incentive for them to chase down Soler if he attacks on the final climb. Soler can sniff the polka-dot jersey too, so he has every reason to be on the attack all day.
Before the first mountain stage, I had $1 on Rasmussen to win at $34, he is now the $1.65 favourite!
At that same day I had $2 each way on Rasmussen to win stage 8 at $4.75 (he won!)
Last night I had $2 on Contador to win last night's stage at $6 (he won!) and I also put $2 on Kloden to win the tour at $6.
So my betting is going extremely well so far, so I thought I'd share my thoughts on the rest of the race.
Sportsbet don't have their odds up yet today, but the market for overall winner according to Centrebet is
$1.65 Rasmussen (too short I think - if he doesn't gain any more time over the next two mountain stages, Evans/Kloden can easily make up the deficit on the last time trial)
$2.65 Contador (star of the future, but doesn't seem to be focussed on winning overall this year - eg. in the final few kms last night he was prepared to just sit on Rasmussen's shoulder and get the stage win, rather than attack Rasmussen to try to win back time from him)
$9.00 Evans (only had one bad day so far, can still win if he makes no more mistakes)
$10.00 Kloden (finally his team will be solely riding for him with Vinokourov finally out of the running, so that will help him through the next two mountain stages. Obviously not as strong a climber as the others, but should win the final time trial, but will he win it by enough?)
So I reckon that Evans and Kloden are some value in that market. My bets:
$1 on Evans
$1 on Kloden
Tonight's stage: Another tough mountain stage in the Pyranees.
Soler looks very good value at $7. With Rasmussen and Contador more worried about each other and the overall classifications, and with both now having an individual stage win, there isn't much incentive for them to chase down Soler if he attacks on the final climb. Soler can sniff the polka-dot jersey too, so he has every reason to be on the attack all day.
WADH
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