SA Footy

Alright I love betting systems and Im trying to get one going myself based around Mal's hate of the Telstra Doom!!

We have all heard how players complain that the week after playing at the Doom they find it hard to recover sufficently for the next week due to the hard surface.

My system is based around any team that plays at the Doom 2 weeks in a row (i.e. twice in 7-9 days) is going to be struggling to come up the next game no matter who they are playing. So the betting strategy will be to bet against this team at the line.

e.g. Round 3 Geelong play Melbourne after Geelong have played their first 2 games at the Doom, so the system bet will be to back Melbourne at the line whatever it is.

Ive done the research and there will be 21 system bets using this system throughout the year...the beauty of this is really hots up in the middle of the year when teams are tired enough without having to play on the Doom!

Some facts - Rnd 18 shows the Bullies and Saints are system bets BUT they play each other!!!...maybe I should back the draw in that game!....

The bullies play 6 games in a row from Rnd 14-19 at the Doom.

Heres the system bets -

Rnd 3
Geelong
Rnd 5
Saints
Rnd 7
Carlton
Rnd 8
Saints
Roos
Swans
Rnd 9
Essendon
Bullies
Rnd 12
Saints
Rnd 13
Carlton
Rnd 14
Hawks
Rnd 15
Essendon
Richmond
Rnd 16
Bullies
Essendon
Rnd 17
Bullies
Saints
Rnd 19
Bullies
Rnd 20
Bullies
Rnd 21
Roos
Rnd 22
Saints
Roos

I will flat bet each of these during the season to see if I can make a profit...thoughts?

Ive been using that formula for a few years now and winning on the punt
Be careful as a side playing in Perth the week before will be more
disadvantaged than sides playing at the DOOM.

Also DOOMSDAY teams that play there as a home ground are not so risky.
WB/SK/KA are used to it[slighter risks]
When CO/CA/HW/RI play there they are risks the week after
Interstate sides negate playing at TD the week after as have a big home ground advantage as a rule.

We will keep records DUTCHY.

mal wrote:Ive been using that formula for a few years now and winning on the punt
Be careful as a side playing in Perth the week before will be more
disadvantaged than sides playing at the DOOM.

Also DOOMSDAY teams that play there as a home ground are not so risky.
WB/SK/KA are used to it[slighter risks]
When CO/CA/HW/RI play there they are risks the week after
Interstate sides negate playing at TD the week after as have a big home ground advantage as a rule.

We will keep records DUTCHY.

yeah well that is the next point to the system, do you bet bigger on the teams not used to it etc etc...will be fun to see how it goes and to see if it can develop into a proven money making system.

I may have posted this before but in the NBA there is a system that has made a 15-30% return on investment every season for the past 5 years, its called B2BB or Back to Back Blues, based on betting on Home Underdogs that didnt play the night before who have a favourite coming to town who did play the night before...

Further proof....


Longmuir knee battle goes on
Mark Duffield | April 12, 2007

FREMANTLE coach Chris Connolly has hinted that a degenerative knee condition may not only keep ruckman Justin Longmuir out of Sunday's western derby — even if he is fit — but may prevent him from playing further matches at Telstra Dome, due to concerns about the hardness of the surface.

Longmuir was not brought to Melbourne last weekend to play against Essendon at Docklands and will probably not play in the Dockers' other fixture at the ground later this season — against St Kilda in round 20.

The 26-year-old has had a long-running battle with his knee and moved gingerly in a subdued performance against Port Adelaide in round one, which yielded just four kicks, seven handballs and five hitouts.

"We just think the Telstra Dome surface is too hard for the preparation he has done so that influenced the decision as much as anything," Connolly said of Longmuir's absence last weekend.

Connolly said the Dockers would weigh up the value of returning Longmuir to the team for the derby against the benefits of retaining a makeshift ruckman such as Daniel Gilmore, who played against Essendon last weekend.

"Mark Seaby has been in the top three or four in the competition in winning hitouts and with Dean Cox coming back, Justin will be strongly considered," Connolly said.

"There is a possibility, considering the form of Daniel Gilmore, who we had last week as a second ruckman. We will look at different options."

Longmuir has three years of his contract to run but the Dockers are understood to be grooming young ruckman Robert Warnock to play at AFL level this season, with a view to him supporting Aaron Sandilands at centre bounces next season.

Connolly denied that Longmuir's knee problem had worsened. "It is a degenerative type of injury," he said. "I don't think it is getting significantly worse week to week, it just needs to be managed correctly."

He expected Longmuir to be fit to play against the Eagles, pending him getting through a training session last night. But the 138-game veteran battled to play 16 games and kick 19 goals last season and Connolly weighed up the possibility of not playing Longmuir even if he was fit.

The Dockers had another blow last night when defender Heath Black was suspended for one match after being found guilty of striking in the WAFL on Monday.

Alright Bet 1 in the Telstra DOOM system -

Melbourne +20.5 points
$50- @ $2.02
to return $50.50

Melbourne +20.5 points
$50- @ $2.02
to return $50.50

TELSTRA DOOM RECORD -$50-

Alright Bet 2 tonight after Saints have played last 2 at the Doom =

Port Power -12.5
$50- @ $1.91
to return $95-00

Port Power -12.5
$50- @ $1.91
to return $95-00

was it the Saints heavy legs tonight?

Telstra DOOM System -$5.00

Dutchy wrote:Alright Bet 1 in the Telstra DOOM system -

Melbourne +20.5 points
$50- @ $2.02
to return $50.50

shouldn't that have read "to return $101"?

Punk Rooster wrote:

Dutchy wrote:Alright Bet 1 in the Telstra DOOM system -

Melbourne +20.5 points
$50- @ $2.02
to return $50.50

shouldn't that have read "to return $101"?

LOL good pick up!!!...loser anyway

alright there is a DOOM system bet this Round....Carlton have played on teh concrete for the past 2 games and both games have been fast paced -


Collingwood -15.5
$50- @ $2-00

DUTCHY

im not sure if you have heard one punter has had $30,000 on carlton to win and another $30,000 at the line

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:DUTCHY

im not sure if you have heard one punter has had $30,000 on carlton to win and another $30,000 at the line

Hmmmm I actually like being on the otherside of the big money....anyway Im playing this system no matter what the form, odds etc etc...just to see if it makes a profit by years end....there are 3 games for this system next week!!!

Dutchy wrote:

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:DUTCHY

im not sure if you have heard one punter has had $30,000 on carlton to win and another $30,000 at the line

Hmmmm I actually like being on the otherside of the big money....anyway Im playing this system no matter what the form, odds etc etc...just to see if it makes a profit by years end....there are 3 games for this system next week!!!

i sense a MULTI!!!!!!!!

Collingwood -15.5
$50- @ $2-00

This is the system at its best....Blues all over them at half time but after 2 weeks on concrete they cant lift their legs int he last half....Collingwood not only win but cover the spread!!!!

Telstra DOOM System $45-00 Profit

Telstra DOOM stats...concrete evidence

Professors DUTCHY+ MAL have commented on the vagueries of the DOOM
Here are the 2nd half stats on the TD residents SK/KA/WB
I have been saying for a fair while now that this ground is a too hard a surface
and it takes its toll on the leg endurance of the sides who regularly play on it.
Not to mention long term leg injuries, and late season fade outs.

SK 2ND HALFS

6-8 ...3-5
5-4... 8-5
10-7.. 6-6
5-8... 8-6
3-4... 9-6
10-9. 7-5
8-3... 5-1

7 GAMES WIN 4 LOSE 3
FOR 47-43 AGAINST 46-34
______________________________________________________

KA 2ND HALFS

3-9...7-5
8-6...9-8
5-6...10-7
6-9...3-6
6-5...9-4
8-8...11-4
10-4..8-6

7 GAMES WIN 2 LOSE 5
FOR 46-47 AGAINST 57-40

________________________________________________________

WB 2ND HALFS

6-4...6-8
6-4...8-4
6-6...10-7
10-4...9-11
5-10...6-4
3-4...4-10
6-11..9-4

7 GAMES WIN O LOSE 6 draw 1
FOR 42-43 AGAINST 52-48

____________________________________________

Those stats are interesting for the 3 residents
Why does the youthful WB team lose 6 2nd halfs ?????? and draw 1

One more stat on a non resident
SS 2ND HALFS

7-5...1-6
7-4...6-4
6-12..3-5
4-8...3-2
7-2...4-8
11-4.8-8

IN THE FIRST 6 ROUNDS HAD WON EVERY 2ND HALF
THE 6TH GAME WAS THE 11-4 TO 8-8 2ND HALF V KA

THE 7TH GAME WAS SS 2ND GAME IN A ROW AT THE DOOM V SK

SK 8-3
SS 5-1

SS lose thier first 2nd half of the year...and played the 2nd week in a row at the DOOM .....


I expect this trend to continiue as the 3 DOOM residents will find it
tougher to stay leg fresh later in the year.

good stats to have Mal and Money to be made when betting live at half time of the games involving these teams...I notices Collingwood were $2.25 at half time on Saturday...a gift in hindsight, they won with a leg in the air

Betting in the run can be lucrative.
I win heeps in the footy
but get burnt badly in the cricket

alright 3 bets this weekend -

Port +7.5
$50- @ $1.90

Hawks +6.5
$50- @ $1.90

Carlton +11.5
$50- @ $1.90

would be more than happy to lose the Carlton bet...or even better the Roos winning by 11 points or less!!!

well i sort used this DOOM system for a footy bet, i ended up having something on the hawks at $2.10 after I managed to make a profit out of geelong. just spewing i didnt take the double with my geelong bets into hawthorn.......

Telstra DOOM System 3-3 -$10-00 Profit

2 this week, both Bombers and Bullies coming off 2 games on concrete -

Swans to win
$50- @ $1.80

Richmond +20.5
$50- @ $1.90