SA Footy

Thoughts, comments & predictions here.

For mine, I think Gust Of Wind is miles over the odds ($34) - absolutely crying out for the 2 miles.
I've backed it 5 different times & will stand it out to win in pick 4's & quaddies.

Not many genuine winning chances

Too maNy international horses

The favourite looks the horse to beat given it has a strong turn of foot.

There are a few that also have the pen straight through them that won't figure.

Will have more input tomorrow......

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Not many genuine winning chances

The fave certainly looks the one to beat, but the same could be said of last year .. Either injury or poor positioning can bring the best of them undone.

IF the favourite somehow succumbs, then I reckon the race is wide open. At this stage I've just taken exotics mostly based around:

Fame Game
Trip To Paris
Preferment
United States

Supported by the likes of Grand Marshall, Quest For More, Hartnell.

Still haven't sat down and studied properly, but Bondi Beach is one that interests me.

Melbourne Cup favorites are often dictated on the day by the once a year punters. The savvy who often take fixed odds days before have Fame Game $4.50 fixed ( was $3.80 yesterday ) which, for mine, means many smart punters are on it.

Mine ( so far - in no particular order )

Fame Game
Criterion
Red Cadeaux ( you have to have it in exotics )
Trip to Paris
United States
Preferment

Big Orange and Hartnell make for interesting reading.

Fame game wins its a massive loss for crownbet.

Supporting Booney theory.

Haven't seen the ch7 preview from Yesty yet but I heard a couple panelists knocking Fame Game Caulfield Cup run saying he just sprinted home......ummm I think that's what all stayers generally do. Just cruise until the last 800 or so and sprint to the finish.....hence stayers back up better than sprinters

I'll be having a EW bet on Grand Marshall.
Then some exotics around 3,4,9,10,11,14,24.

Raining in Melbourne.

Max Dynamite will be under the odds with the once a year punters..

Will have a punt on Trip To Paris and Bondi Beach.

Punters club will have a crack at Trif/Pick 4.

This is a difficult Cup.
Agree with MT_79 ... too many Internationals in the Race now.
That makes lining up the form difficult again - same as the Cox Plate, although a couple did run @ Caulfield, including the fav.
Might not need to look too far from 'the obvious'.

Haven't had a good look yet but I think it would be prudent to do form for BOTH Dry & Wet conditions, depending on the state of the Track.
I always take a 'legged' trifecta & have only cracked it once, when Shocking won it (& I backed Crime Scene @ $14.50 the Place as well that year)
I have a system that gives me the 'winner' leg, & I take the field in the 3rd... 25% for a cost of $132 ... 3 / 9 / Field & I don't take the fav in 1st leg simply because I want a bigger payout - that has burnt me a few times... Etheral's win cost me, I had her in 2nd leg & was 'whipping' home the International that was just beaten.

Unfortunately THAT System doesn't cope well with the amount of Internationals these days because many haven't run here & one of the 'rules' is "... must've run top 4 in a Group Race in Melbourne this Spring.

Will be back later for my tip... Hard work but...

Was reading a system yesterday
It had 6 rules and one of them was to eliminate 3yo - fully agree as Skipton's achievement in 1941 will never be matched as a Derby - Cup winning double and those over 8yo

However Red Cadeaux fulfilled another rule of being placed last year - along with Whoshotthebarman but because of age Red had to be put out of the final selections. We know Red ain't a normal horse now as a 10yr old so I will keep it in the mix with those other numbers. I have them at home and will post them later

segue... does anyone have a members ticket they're not using tomorrow?

For the race itself - I like The United States, Who Shot The Barman, Criterion, Preferment, Max Dynamite, Almoonqith, Hartnell, Trip to Paris and Fame Game. My selection on the day will be out of that list. I like the US because of it's run in the MV Cup, although that form line doesn't seem to hold that well in the big race.

It seems the English horses have mixed their form between themselves, with Quest for More being a rank outsider despite having form around Big Orange, Trip to Paris, Kingfisher and Max Dynamite (from memory). So I can't quite line them up. Max Dynamite blew Trip to Paris away in a recent outing however that was on a rain affected track - yet people don't rate it.

I had Our Ivanhowe in the quinella with Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup and just can't see it running them off their feet over 3200m. Could be VERY wrong.

The ones I don't know anything about are Bondi Beach and Sky Hunter, I assume are good enough to be in the field rather than just being overseas plodders being trained by "a name" and getting entry ahead of some realistic chances???

Best of luck everyone!

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Was reading a system yesterday
It had 6 rules and one of them was to eliminate 3yo - fully agree as Skipton's achievement in 1941 will never be matched as a Derby - Cup winning double and those over 8yo

However Red Cadeaux fulfilled another rule of being placed last year - along with Whoshotthebarman but because of age Red had to be put out of the final selections. We know Red ain't a normal horse now as a 10yr old so I will keep it in the mix with those other numbers. I have them at home and will post them later

Those system numbers
4-10-19-23 but 9-11came up also and given they had placed last years Cup should throw in with those.

As for mine I am just in the culling process

Got about two hours of study in before the CBF's hit. so just going with what I have and playing for luck ...

Multiples around:

Fame Game
Big Orange
Trip To Paris
Who Shot The Barman
Grand Marshall
Quest For More
Bondi Beach

(A Trifecta placed on a whim yesterday included Preferment, United States and Hartnell)

The two I've omitted that I don't know much about, but am intrigued by, are Max Dynamite and Excess Knowledge (The latter sounded like a fair win against the bias on Saturday, but didn't see the race due to work).

The rest I've put a line through.

I normally do well in the Cup when there's a standout horse I'm happy to take a punt on (Protectionist and Shocking the last two) - But no such vibe this year, which usually means I'm miles off, so not expecting any joy in the Cup tomorrow.

A few Tris, F4's, Sweeps, $10ew Quest For More and a $25 Free Bet on Who Shot The Barman. And thats it, I'm not lifting the paper for that race again lol.

Snow Sky winning would be the one I most kick myself over, so that's probably the tip I'll give people lol.

OK ... what a difficult task that was!
Here's what I did:

Barrier 16 or less: 1,2,3,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,17,18,19,21,22
$21 or less in the Market (Monday Morning): 2,3,4,8,10,11,15,17,22
Top 6 Jocks Oz: 2,6,7,13,15,23
Top 6 Jocks International: 1,3,8,9,20,22
Ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd last start: 2,4,8,9,10,12,13,17,19,20,22,23
4 yr, 5yr, 6yr old: 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,12,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,22,23,24
Won @ Track: 11,14,15,19,21,23
Placed @ Track: 2,4,9,11,19,21
20% Win or more: 1,2,3,4,5,6,10,11,12,13,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24
60% Place or more: 1,2,4,6,12,16,19,20,22,23
20 or less starts: 2,4,6,8,9,10,11,15,16,18,20,22,23,24
3+ Places in Wet: 2,4,6,8,9,10,12,13,14,15,21,23 - caveat on 20 due to only 5 career starts
Won 2800m+: 1,3,5,6,8,9,10,11,13,14,15,18
Weight 55kgs or less: 8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24

So what does this mean?
Win 3 Dry: 2,10,15
Win 3 Wet: 10, 13, 15

I think Fame Game is way too short.
Snow Sky is OVER the Odds - Good Place Bet IMHO
I am backing BOTH Godolphin runners - I like Hartnell, thought it was unlucky in the Cox Plate - High Rating Race.
They want to win this race very badly.
Happy with both in all conditions.

Quinella Dry: 2,3,6,10,11,12,15,17
Quinella Wet: 4,6,9,10,11,12,13,15

Pick 4 Dry: 2,6,10,15,17

Enjoy the Race Lads!
Tough Day all around - if the rain comes hard, get on Rudy in Race 8
Pick 4 Wet: 4,6,10,13,15

**** me

How long did that take?

I'm having a 'roughie' trifecta, any two, quinella and pick four.

5, 6, 7, 12, 14, 16, 18.

Still culling

Top bracket are the obvious 3,10
Secondary 1,2,4,8,9,14,17

Finally for 3rd-4th in exotics are 6,11,15,16,24

Too many internationals to really get a handle on the race as that form overseas sometimes doesn't eventuate out here.

My boxed trifecta;

Red Cardeux
Fame Game
The Offer
United States
Who Shot The Barman
Hartnell

I'm going to throw $20 on The Offer. Last year early Melbourne Cup favourite before being withdrawn from the Spring. Waterhouse has been preparing it with big weights in lesser standard races, today it's weight drops and it's got Oliver on its back. No doubt I'll lose however