by OnSong » Fri Jun 24, 2011 12:44 am
Game 1: Essendon v Hawthorn
Essendon’s form has been fairly average lately, while the Hawks have been pretty good. Biggest problem is Franklin out. Buddy averages about four goals a game against Essendon, the Hawks forward line will be led by Cyril Rioli. Cyril is a gun but can he be the sole focal point in attack? Essendon’s ins look more potent but perhaps their midfield is not quite up to speed. Still, looking across the field, this game is more of a coin toss in my mind. I probably haven’t seen enough of these two teams to have an informed opinion but an unfancied Essendon have rolled the Hawks three of the past four games. Note: none of their past 10 encounters have yielded less than 160 total match points. 7 of their last 10 have been over 180 points.
Best bets: Essendon $2.30, Essendon over 15.5 $3.50.
Game 2: Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs
I watched the Bullies last week and the Crows made them look fairly good. Mind you, Adelaide’s tagger did the job on Boyd but the Bullies others cut us up. The Crows hammered the Coasters by 10 goals, the Bullies line of just over six goals just looks dee-licious. They smashed the Coasters earlier this year, Baz nailed 5, Baz is back in, the Doggies to do it easy.
Best bets: WB +36.5 $1.90. WB 15.5+ $1.35 looks nice and safe.
Game 3: Melbourne v Richmond
Melbourne are about as predictable as Charlie Sheen lately. This one is literally the toss of the coin. I think the Demons have a better defensive unit, a better forward line (lately) and maybe a little behind in the midfield. Jamar is a huge in, will carve up Browne and Vickery. I watched the Demons with amazement taking Freo apart. Tri bet looks the go too. Generally high-scoring encounters between these two.
Best bets: Either team under 15.5 points $2.65. Demons 40 to 59 $10.
Game 4: Sydney v Collingwood
Welcome back Dane Swan and Dale Thomas. Just in time for another win over Sydney. The Swans haven’t beaten the Pies since 2005. Shane Mumford out, Sydney should play finals but they’re performance last week against Carlton should be a fair indication of where they are at. Not good enough to win. I reckon the line of 34.5 is fairly indicative of the final margin.
Best bets: Collingwood 20-39 $4 and 40 to 59 $4.25.
Game 5: Fremantle v Brisbane
Two points was the margin last time around but the line-ups are quite varied with a few injuries out there. Brisbane aren’t travelling well, Freo have some massive ins but they were dead set horrible against Melbourne last weekend. Still, the Lions are playing too many kids too far from home. They should cover the line here. Should.
Best bets: Freo 15.5+ $1.30 is safe. Feeling bold? Take the 34.5 point line at $1.90
Game 6: Geelong v Adelaide
An eight goal line is available here and I’d be tempted to take it. Adelaide’s forward line is one-dimensional and we just can’t kick a winning score lately (as in all year). We have one hope: Ian Callinan. I’m not going to bet on this one. If Steve J is matched up on Johncock, get on him for most goals for the round.
Best bets: Adelaide 60+ $101. Bugger it. F**kin Crows.
Game 7: Carlton v West Coast
After learning a harsh lesson from Carlton last week, perhaps I better get on board before it happens again. Carlton perform well at Etihad, WC yet to beat them there. The Eagles are a good team, should push the Blues. But I think with Warnock back in, they’ll get the job done in the end.
Best bets: Carlton 1-39 $2.15
Game 8: Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Yep, North are on a roll. Can’t scrape another horrible feeling out of my head that Port are going to knock them off. Motlop out but Schulz and Westhoff look like formidable opponents of a young backline of Harper and Pedersen. Scott McMahon out also weakens the defensive line-up. Perhaps I’ll take the line.
Best bets: Port Adelaide +13.5 $1.90.
Right in front of me. RIGHT IN FRONT OF ME!