Form Analysis VS Good Punting And Between The Ears

[Oaksnaf]

Below is: MY OPINION....If I wanted yours I would tell you it...........(joking)

I have many questions regarding form analysis and have tried many, many methods to see what works and what doesn't. But let's be realistic here. Nothing can beat good punting.

No matter how bad your selections are, you can always make profit with GOOD punting.
No matter how good your selections are, you will always lose with BAD punting.

So what does GOOD PUNTING consist of?
What does BAD PUNTING consist of?

And do we really need to be 'form' experts?

People get paid to study the form day in day out and have access to more information than most of us can find on google. So why do we continue to go down this pathway where we have to study the form?

I could spend hours and hours studying a horse race. Could come up with plenty of reasons as to why each horse can win/lose. But in all honesty, I wouldn't UNDERSTAND what I was doing. And would be just forming an opinion. An opinion that could be conjured up by anyone who spent the same time using the same information that I was.

Maybe we need to understand the information first before we use it as study?

Would that help?

Maybe we aleady understand it. We know the animals, the jockeys. But we avoid betting on our selection, because of it's short odds and then start to think negatively towards that selection so you go for the low % exotic bet, or even back the other team.

"Odds on look on". Yada Yada. That only applies if you actually know what odd range works for you and whether you have a good eye for VALUE. And you can only know that by keeping records.


If we backed the ODDS ON runner and it won. Is that GOOD PUNTING? Simply because we backed a winner..........

Maybe we got $1.22. Most money matched on betfair was at $1.28. Sportsbet offered $1.26.

Maybe there was more return laying the other options?

How much did we have on the selection? Why did we have that much on the selection?

And the list goes on.



Both Form Analysis and Good Punting are complicated matters and they aren't necessarily defined or easily understood aspects of Gambling.



Although compare them to our Mental Side of punting and they are a walk in the park.

Elite athletes have sports physchologists travel with them on tournaments. Maybe the elite punters do too? Certainly the POOR punters do. Some of them attend those meetings.

We really, really have to understand how our mind works in punting. I try really hard to focus a lot of energy towards my mental capacity/personality when I am punting. Because I know, that an 'obessive' nature leads to BAD PUNTING which wipes out solid FORM ANALYSIS.

I realise that the "one more bet" creates a scenario where you study a race to find a bet.

Shouldn't it be. You study a race. And the bet finds you?

Because we can trick ourselves into betting on certain selections, or using INCORRECT information in our form analysis to form the basis of a selection.

It's an ON PACERS day at the races.......People will still believe that the next race has to be won by a SWOOPER. And if they find a swooper on top. They will believe that more. Others..... in fact will find an ON PACER on top. And will think "Ahh nah the run will end this race...." and ignore their OWN selection and back something else.


We analyse the race the same way. We use the information the same way. But the connection between....


Finishing Analysis to Placing Our Bet


Is exactly where the mental side of punting comes to play. And it is this ZONE that has the BIGGEST impact.

Whether we like it or not. We are not robots. And most of us don't have the personality to become robot like. Because it makes winning boring. Winning is meant to be exciting. Don't they teach us that at school. If you win, your happy. If you lose, you find an excuse?

Maybe it is this "winning feeling" that lures us into a false sense of security that we CAN win on the punt.

You win on.... MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

Come Thursday you believe that everything you touch is gold. Suddenly you lose in every single race you bet on.

Why? Because you are studying blind and punting blind (EVEN THOUGH... we have a lot of knowledge on this particular race and have plenty of records to know what is good/bad punting for oursleves). We have to do both as if we hadn't won.





I like the mental side of punting. And feel that it is MORE important than Form Analysis and Good Punting.

If we can't be robots. What can we be?




If your still reading. I would be interested to hear your views on:

Form Analysis
Good Punting
Between The Ears

[mighty_tiger_79]

i just like winning, lets not get too deep

[bayman]

never ever change your mind, especially from outside influences whether they be mates with the 'straight from the horses mouth' tips or from the so called experts in the media...just remember these people are working for a living so they can't be as good as is sometimes made them out to be.......& after saying that i'll ask you how many times did you like a runner only to be told the 'inside oil' & it runs nowhere & your original pick wins ?

[mighty_tiger_79]

i think you need to have sound form analysis but needs to be supported by a staking plan that will suit and help you in your investments, no matter what they may be

[dodgingandweaving]

Fantastic post, and this needs to be discussed at length by all.
It will improve all bank balances and our productivity on the punt.

- Do limits need to be set?
- How do we assess overs and unders? and how strict do we need to adhere to betting at a certain price..... Or do you take any price, just becoz you believe it will win....?
- what factors, varibale need to be accounted for? first-up? track record, distance record.... etc, etc... etc....


lastly, that's why we love this game.... the variables.... and inevitably trying to predict these variables is what gets us unstuck

[dodgingandweaving]

best post... ever.....

frank and candid..... that is what successful punting is all about...

pour your heart out lads... nothing but good can come of it,....




oaksy, just don't let Grub see your 'odds on, look on.... yada yada' post.... would bring the great man to tears....

I'm a fan of backing odds on pops... invariably there's a vaild reason they are odds on

[dodgingandweaving]

oaksy.. your an astute form analyst..... we can all learn a lot from how deep you delve into the world of smart punting.....

may i ask how long you have been seriously punting for.... just out of curiousity?
your definitely one guy the punters here can look up to when they need advice.... sage advice.... from all angles.... and that is what good punting is all about.... exploring all angles...

[cje]

very good post
the secret to being succesful is not to chase when losing, having less bets with more $$$ on, doing your own markets to 80%, bet according to your market, their will be days
wear you wont have a bet, adjust your markets if any bias, watch tapes of previous runs
go to trials.

[Oaksnaf]

very good post
the secret to being succesful is not to chase when losing, having less bets with more $$$ on, doing your own markets to 80%, bet according to your market, their will be days
wear you wont have a bet, adjust your markets if any bias, watch tapes of previous runs
go to trials.

Agreed!! Especially in greyhounds when you have the big money Maiden series at Sandown. Most trainers will wait for the series to unleash their new talent and those who have watched the trials already know which ones to look for. The general public only have breeding to go by and the trainer. Since most don't know about breeding apart from the obvious, it leaves punters to go by the trainers names they know.

It's pretty important to watch the betting if you don't know the trials in those kind of series where big money is at stake for debutants.

[Oaksnaf]

We should be concerned with losing runs. It is losing runs that allow doubt to creep into our punting ability. Whether it be how we punt or how we analyse the form. Eitherway doubt occurs and we start doing things that we don't normally do.

At the moment, I am going through a rough patch for my TOP RATINGS.

With 2 winners from the past 22 races.

That is exceptionally poor. But I know that my overall S/R is still above 33% and that there is still profit betting at level stakes.

So how do we get back on track to picking winners. Well we don't. The winners will find us if we have correct methods. You are always going to experience a bad patch, which is a real pity.

But in the back of our mind there is pressure to make the next race a winner.


Because it's feels different to when we picked 5/6 winners on the 12th Jan.

We want to get back to that WINNING feeling.


We must remind ourselves that there are over 300 days a year to punt on and your not going to win on every one of them. Be careful the way you treat yesterdays losses and yesterdays winners. Don't let your immediate history change the immediate future.

But there has to come a point where you stop. Sit back and analyse what you are doing and make sure your on the right track.


I know I can't punt everyday its too hard.

[JK]

Your post(s) have probably been a timely reminder for me Oaksy (thanks for that) .. I've been going through a down patch and perhaps without even noticing it at the time, I've been chasing the elusive winners in trying to end the current cycle.

Problem is, it exacerbates the issue as I've started picking any old thing with little study or confidence ... Have probably also forgotten the simple goal of profit first, whether it be a little or a lot.

Finishing in front even in small amounts soon adds up to a healthy bankroll .. But trying to get the bankroll instantly healthy on each bet sends you further into the mire.

For 2009 I kept spreadsheets to analyse my punting methods and they always seemed to reign me in if I was getting out of hand .. Thus far this year I haven't been bothered keeping a spreadsheet and I think thats a big component of my current plight, and the first thing Im going to address.

I guess that probably touches on another dangerous element of punting - complacency.

[G]

Oaksnaf there are actually 363 days a year that the TAB is open so remember "patience is a virtue"

[Ecky]

In my opinion punting is very simple. If you can follow these rules you will make money.

1) Pick an event and form a 100% market that includes every entry (horse/team etc.) using as much information as you can gather (just as if you were a bookmaker betting on the event)
2) Make an objective judgment on how confident you are that your market is correct.
3) Shop around to see if you can find anyone (bookies/betfair etc.) offering odds that are better than those in your market on any entry.
4) If you find some, place a bet - the more confident you are in your market, and the higher the discrepancy between your odds and the bookies odds, the larger your wager should be.
5) If you can't find any odds above yours, do not bet.

If you don't have the ability and patience to do this (like 99% of punters) and resort to hunches, unproven theories and bet with emotion, you will inevitably lose in the long run.

Bet on things you know about as then it is much easier to form markets and be confident about them. Also stick to events with two "horses" (like football games) rather than horse races with large fields where there are too many variables involved - it isn't worth your time trying to suss out all the factors involved.

[Ecky]

So what does GOOD PUNTING consist of?

Putting a bet on a horse that is over the true odds

What does BAD PUNTING consist of?

Putting a bet on a horse that is under the true odds

And do we really need to be 'form' experts?

Yes, if you aren't then you will never know what the true odds are and will be punting in the dark.

People get paid to study the form day in day out and have access to more information than most of us can find on google. So why do we continue to go down this pathway where we have to study the form?

Because it is the only way to find out the true odds.

I could spend hours and hours studying a horse race. Could come up with plenty of reasons as to why each horse can win/lose. But in all honesty, I wouldn't UNDERSTAND what I was doing. And would be just forming an opinion. An opinion that could be conjured up by anyone who spent the same time using the same information that I was.

If you can't convert this information accurately into odds, then you shouldn't be punting seriously.

Maybe we need to understand the information first before we use it as study?

Would that help?

Of course - you need to understand what variables are important to be able to form odds.

If we backed the ODDS ON runner and it won. Is that GOOD PUNTING? Simply because we backed a winner..........

It simply depends on whether your bet was above the true odds or not. No need to complicate things any further.

We really, really have to understand how our mind works in punting. I try really hard to focus a lot of energy towards my mental capacity/personality when I am punting. Because I know, that an 'obessive' nature leads to BAD PUNTING which wipes out solid FORM ANALYSIS.

True, if you can't be objective there is no point bothering.

Because we can trick ourselves into betting on certain selections, or using INCORRECT information in our form analysis to form the basis of a selection.

Yep, it is very important to stay objective.

Whether we like it or not. We are not robots. And most of us don't have the personality to become robot like. Because it makes winning boring. Winning is meant to be exciting. Don't they teach us that at school. If you win, your happy. If you lose, you find an excuse?

That's the problem - you have to act very robotically to make a profit.

If we can't be robots. What can we be?

Go and get a real job like everyone else. I know I have.

[Oaksnaf]

TRUE odds is an interesting discussion.

There are punters out there who form their markets on the basis of completely different information. Some are pure math, some are pure opinion.

You don't necessarily need to punt at TRUE odds.

There is a difference between rating an animal and rating a race. If you take each animal individually and rate them in order. You are only rating their ability. This kind of rating process is where you can find UNDERS. But essentially they are TRUE odds of each animal in question. We know their history extensively.

But when you put animal A in Box 1 and animal B in Box 2. The market changes considerably. Because you have to rate the race to the BEST suited animal. This is where you find OVERS.

In these situations it is important to relate track data and recent history involving the animal.

It is not necessary for us to involve factors that we don't have consistent access too, because it will skew your market.

For instance. I work at a track, and that information is a huge advantage. An advantage I don't have elsewhere. That information is something that you cannot factor in when betting elsewhere.

You might say "Well why bet elsewhere then".

The simply answer is. We will NEVER know everything. It is not important to know everything. It is only important to know the information that is VALID to provide yourself with accurate markets.

An accurate market returns $95+ per race on average.

If your not returning $90 per race in your markets, then your in trouble.


I don't need to know everything in greyhound racing. I just need to know the right kind of information/knowledge.

[mighty_tiger_79]

I don't need to know everything in greyhound racing. .

but you do know everything

[whufc]

Good Punting = copy Dutchys tips