AFL Grand Final / SANFL Prelim Final

[Dutchy]

BOOKIES are bleeding after a blue-and-white preliminary final avalanche.

And they are preparing for more to come as the big punters around the country get set to load up on Geelong.

TAB Sportsbet put up $1.70 Geelong and $2.10 St Kilda yesterday and all the interest has been for the side from Sleepy Hollow.

"Eighty per cent of the money we took yesterday was for the Cats and we expect that theme to continue, unless of course the Saints get to a price that can't be ignored," said Gary Davies of TAB Sportsbet.

Sportsbet Australia put up $1.80 about Geelong on Saturday night and was immediately swamped, prompting it to turn the Cats into $1.71 and wind the Saints out to $2.15 from $2.05.

Centrebet has the Cats even shorter at just $1.61 with the Saints a very tempting $2.33 after what some saw as an unimpressive display on Friday night.

Phil Hannah of Sportsbet Australia disagrees.

"St Kilda, who were also very well backed before their preliminary final, are starting to get to a silly price," Hannah said.

"They and Geelong are the two best sides in the competition with the Western Bulldogs not that far away. And the Cats only beat the Dogs by a couple of kicks in the first week of finals."

At Centrebet Neil Evans said the gap in the head-to-head market represented a stunning return for Geelong.

"The way Geelong's key men have fired through the finals, and the massive burden of expectation for the Saints chasing their first flag in 43 years, means the Cats in our opinion are a clear favourite," Evans said.

"During the week we took $10,000 at $1.50, $5000 at $1.50, $5000 at $1.47, $5000 at $1.45 and $10,000 at $1.42 on the Cats to beat Collingwood.

"But most of the big damage came with the big line punters, including a sharp client who wagered $75,000 (-13.5) at $1.91 and another who came in with $30,000 (-16.5) at $1.91.

"Then on the Saturday there were hundreds of bets on Geelong, including $20,000 at $1.38, $15,000 (-16.5) at $1.91, $10,000 (-16.5) at $1.91 and $5000 (-17.5) at $1.91."

Michael Sullivan of Sportingbet Australia agreed the Cats should be favourites but was happy to accommodate punters.

"We put up $1.72 and took a bet of $15,000 straight away but we are happy to keep taking them on at that price," Sullivan said.

"In the preliminary final they were $1.48 into $1.32 with us as $10,000 punters just kept coming for them."

The prize for the smartest punter must go to the Sportsbet Australia client who had $200,000 on the St Kilda-Geelong Grand Final on Friday at $1.95 to win $190,000.

[Zahov]

leave everyone out of the fairy tale storys, i know someone that rang one of the places mentioned on friday and asked for $1000 on st. kilda and they wouldnt give them $1! so why would they go and bet other people bets between $10,000 and $200,000?

[silicone skyline]

Anyone having a crack at the exotic multis of 1st goal into Norm Smith?

I'll put them on Friday night/Saturday Morning, was wondering if anyone else is going to have a crack at them?

[brent-83]

I'll be taking Riewoldt & Chapman for Norm Smith.

Can't see the Saints winning unless Riewoldt plays out of his skin.

[Johno6]

Hawkins first goal, Bartel Norm Smith
Hawkins 1st goal, Sellwood norm smith

[Bum Crack]

Varcoe first goal, Ablett Norm Smith

[JK]

Can't see the Saints winning unless Riewoldt plays out of his skin.

It's for that reason that I backed Scarlett at $34 ... I reckon he gets one or both of Kosi and St Nick during the day, and the Saints can't win without 1 or both of them having a decent day out I reckon.

[Browny25]

I like Chapman / Hawkins for first goal.

Riewoldt or Hayes are the only two who could win Norm Smith for Saints IMO...

[The Lump]

leave everyone out of the fairy tale storys, i know someone that rang one of the places mentioned on friday and asked for $1000 on st. kilda and they wouldnt give them $1! so why would they go and bet other people bets between $10,000 and $200,000?

so true, i tried to place 10k on riewoldt v goddard the other day and they only let me place 4k
wtf!?!
this happens all the time with bookies like luxbet,sportingbet and sportsbet...they ALL love to go on the radio etc and say we've taken a bet for 10-100k etc yet for some reason you go and try to place a bet over 4 figures you'd be lucky if they let you get on.

are they just making it up or what? is this even legal if they are?

[Ecky]

I doubt there are any conspiracy theories, Lump.

Their limits would be much less on "exotic" bets like Brownlow head to heads than on straight win bets, which are much easier to lay off due to a much greater volume of bets.

Plus they often suspend betting for short periods of time if they hear rumours of injuries to key players or if other bookies odds change suddenly. This is just being smart and is perfectly legal.

[The Lump]

yeah im fairly certain they only allow the losing accounts to bet that much on...i mean 200k cmon, i wanted to bet 5k or so a few weeks ago on something and they only let me bet 2.5. i called up and they didnt let me put anymore on

[Dutchy]

Well after a fairly stressful 24 hours, myself and a mate have secured ourselves a win of either $2,100 or $3,300 risk free, as long as a certain Geelong player (who has no injury concerns) runs onto the field in the GF....we have had to invest pretty heavily (and hence caused the stress - related to some of the posts above) but are now sitting on a sweet result no matter what happens...I wont post the details until after the bets are settled (the opportunity isnt there anymore anyway)...just shows if you put the work in you can get free money

[dedja]

Well after a fairly stressful 24 hours, myself and a mate have secured ourselves a win of either $2,100 or $3,300 risk free, as long as a certain Geelong player (who has no injury concerns) runs onto the field in the GF....we have had to invest pretty heavily (and hence caused the stress - related to some of the posts above) but are now sitting on a sweet result no matter what happens...I wont post the details until after the bets are settled (the opportunity isnt there anymore anyway)...just shows if you put the work in you can get free money

Sorry to be pedantic but that statement suggests there is some risk hence it cannot be risk free

[Dutchy]

Well after a fairly stressful 24 hours, myself and a mate have secured ourselves a win of either $2,100 or $3,300 risk free, as long as a certain Geelong player (who has no injury concerns) runs onto the field in the GF....we have had to invest pretty heavily (and hence caused the stress - related to some of the posts above) but are now sitting on a sweet result no matter what happens...I wont post the details until after the bets are settled (the opportunity isnt there anymore anyway)...just shows if you put the work in you can get free money

Sorry to be pedantic but that statement suggests there is some risk hence it cannot be risk free

Risk is we wont make a profit as $$ punted will be returned if he doesnt play, so no risk, but after doing all this work it will feel like a loss!

[gadj1976]

I reckon both the G's will win - Geelong and Glenelg.

As far as Norm Smith goes - I'll put $5 on Hayes (against the logic of Geelong winning), Ling, Mackie, Byrnes

First goal - Shannon Byrnes

I can't see him getting dropped for Matthew Stokes this week.

In the Prelim, Glenelg should win by about 4.5 goals. Unfortunately it seems Glenelg won't beat Centrals, so I'll be putting money on Centrals the week after.

[dedja]

Risk is we wont make a profit as $$ punted will be returned if he doesnt play, so no risk, but after doing all this work it will feel like a loss!

LOL, OK ... just checking that you haven't done this ... viewtopic.php?f=12&t=23680

[silicone skyline]

Risk is we wont make a profit as $$ punted will be returned if he doesnt play, so no risk, but after doing all this work it will feel like a loss!

LOL, OK ... just checking that you haven't done this ... viewtopic.php?f=12&t=23680

I'm guessing you're banking on G Ablett to win the Normy?

[Bold Strategy]

Cloudy. Scattered showers. The chance of thunder and hail. Winds northwesterly averaging up to 35 km/h tending west to northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h during the morning.

City Few showers. Windy. Min8 Max15

thinking there going to be not many goals, so put some on for 0-18 goals at $9, also all the finals at MCG have been prodominately low scoring and with wind hopefully plenty of points
also top goal scorer milne at $12 again with wet weather was thinking riewoldt for norm smith was great value at 9 but not sure in wet

fisher final games had 40 and 30 touches and at $17 most disposals

[Bum Crack]

changed my mind. Chapman for Norm Smith.

[brent-83]

I think the Cats will win, but I've put $50 on Riewoldt at $9. If the Saints are to win, he needs to dominate so that is my thinking there. Will probably back Chapman aswell.