SA Footy

2007 Season Telstra DOOM analysis

Alright Ive been meaning to do this for a while but have finally found some time to complete, looked back through all my stats for the 2007 season and this is the first instalment -

Teams Record the week after playing at the DOOM -

First line is ATS (At The Start/Spread) and second is SU (Straight Up)

Code: Select all

Adelaide      1-2..........1-2
Brisbane      1-2..........1-2
Carlton       3-4..........2-5
Collingwood   2-0..........2-0
Essendon      1-8..........2-7
Freo          1-1..........1-1
Geelong       5-1..........5-1   
Hawks         1-5..........2-4
Roos          7-2..........7-2
Melb          2-2..........1-3
Port          2-0..........2-0
Richmond      1-2..........0-3
Saints        3-8..........5-3-1
Sydney        1-1..........1-1
West Bull     4-7..........3-7-1
West Coast    0-4..........2-2

TOTALS

35-47 ATS a nice 57% record if you backed against this trend blindly all season.

37-43-2 SU record, not a huge difference however

take the top 4 teams out of the above stats (Cats, Roos, Collingwood & Port) and

20-44 ATS 68% record!!!!!
22-40-2 SU

This is on top of the 5-15 record for teams ATS who have played 2 weeks in a row on the DOOM (fade them on the 3rd week)

Pretty convincing stats I would have thought.......

Next instlament will be teams after a 6 day break....

Ill add that the interesting stats here ATS are -

WCE lost all 4 games after playing at the TD last year
Hawks and Saints struggled also after playing at the TD

All of the above teams had reasonable years

Geelong and Roos played very well after the DOOM games and to a lesser degree so did Port and Collingwood

ATS= ?
SU= ?

Punk Rooster wrote:ATS= ?
SU= ?

Apologies

At The Start/Spread (points or line)
Straight Up (Win or Money Line)

Nice analysis Dutchy.

One comment though - I don't think it is really valid to take out the top 4 teams, as that is using hindsight - you don't know who the top 4 teams will be during the year when placing the bets.

Gotta luv the DUTCHY systems threads on all sports
Dutchy is the doyen of punters
So many portfolios
And so many succesess
Dutchys TD system last year was a real $$$$ making system


MALS TD SYSTEM

Lets keep an eye on the DOOMDUTCHMAL specials selections
MALS DOOMDAY system [incorporating Dutchys system with MALS fine tuning]
When a non DOOM resident plays 2 consecutive games at the DOOM bet against them the following week.
This excludes residents SK/WB/KA

My first bet comes up in round 6
CO V ES
ES play these games
R4 ES V WB [TD]
R5 SK V ES [TD]

R6 is a nice easy date to remember its 25/04/08
CO V ES [MCG]
The Anzac Day special will be COLLINGWOOD

Not too many bets in the DOOMSDUTCHMAL system but get on when it does.

Im confused???????

another grub wrote:Im confused???????

its not rocket science

Ecky wrote:Nice analysis Dutchy.

One comment though - I don't think it is really valid to take out the top 4 teams, as that is using hindsight - you don't know who the top 4 teams will be during the year when placing the bets.

agree it is tricky Ecky however we do get a feel for the better teams and the average teams half way thru the year....fair to say Geelong, Roos and Port where all int he top 4 for most of the year...

what it does indicate though that the medical/conditioning teams at Geelong, Port, Roos and Collingwood were right on the mark in preparing the team for games after the DOOM games...soemthing to take notice of this year....

still amazed of WCE record of 0-4 ATS after playing at the DOOM last year considering all those games were at Subi...