Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[Armchair expert]

The SAFOOTY.NET QUADDIE

Taken from the cup comp thread, big shout out to the morons who didn't add numbers next to their selections.......


1,3,6,9.10,11,13,15,16,17,22,23,24
1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,16
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,13,14,17
1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12,17

We still alive

[mighty_tiger_79]

A NSW punter has outlayed $110k & taken a boxed trifecta in the Cup with EVERY RUNNER EXCEPT YUCATAN - for 10 units.

That's a gutsy punt!

He got the trifecta but took a big loss ($80 odd k)

He Should've just boxed up the 9 others i had in the quaddie.

[Trader]

A NSW punter has outlayed $110k & taken a boxed trifecta in the Cup with EVERY RUNNER EXCEPT YUCATAN - for 10 units.

That's a gutsy punt!

He got the trifecta but took a big loss ($80 odd k)

Could have just laid it to place on betfair....

[LPH]

Godolphin!!!

Happy with 2nd but missed the Trifecta

[Armchair expert]

Thats his wife, life is unfair

[OnSong]

Melbourne Cup Preview (Posted Sunday 16:40pm)

OK, last chance to get a big dividend & escape the Spring with SOME of my dignity still intact – I think my credibility has been destroyed somewhat. To do so in the most difficult of races, & with the biggest field in Racing, suggests that I am nothing, if not an optimist – either that or an idiot. Let’s go with the former, shall we?

I figure that mightytiger79 set the tone with is ‘Trip down Memory Lane’, so I implore a little indulgence here.
I’ve been doing this a long time & have only managed to ‘crack’ the Trifecta in 2009 & 2017 – both with Corey Brown on the winner.

I have backed some winners & place getters over the years though – my best was 1988 when I backed Na Botto $50 each way & got back over $1k, running 3rd! The 1st Cup I actually took any interest in was Gold n Black winning in ‘slop’ in 1977. Used to take my Blue K-Mart Transistor Radio to school to listen with an ‘ear-plug’ throughout the 80’s. The only Cup I’ve witnessed live was Let’s Elope’s dominant win in 1991 – my 21st Birthday present was The Melbourne Cup Cruise (on the Fairstar) – 16 hours sleep in 9 nights! They used to call it “Fairstar the Fun Ship”, it was certainly that! What was so funny about that particular Day was I only backed a single winner for the day (I backed Super Impose in the Cup, he ran 4th!!! – I’m good at 4ths), in Heavenly Saint in Brisbane. We always remember the winners, don’t we? Got polaxed that day, let me tell ya!

I think it’s a real shame we no longer have the ‘Cup Day Hurdle’ as the 1st race of the day, thanks to the ‘Outrage Brigade’. I love Jumps Racing & that used to be a real highlight IMHO & a great way to begin the fun.

OK enough reminiscing.

At this stage I am only focussing on the Cup, as its getting a little tiresome trawling through form & coming up with 4th placed runners all the time (Bella Martini hurt on Saturday @ $12 the place!). I will probably come up with a couple of others by Tuesday morning to keep interest in the ‘Support Card’.

So to the 2018 Melbourne Cup…

I am applying the same ‘formula’ of elimination to come up with the 3 Horses I want in the 1st Leg of the Trifecta - that is; finding the Winner of the race. I have an adaptation of the ‘Practical Punting’ (The Optimist) method. I have adapted it because the race is an ‘International Race’ now & needs a slightly different approach. Still we (the Punters) have to deal with horses 1st Up in Australia, in the race. I maintain the VRC should change this & make these overseas horses run at least once before running in this race. It’s unfair on the Punter, & after all, it is the Punters who keep Racing viable with turnover. Rant over, for now.

Elimination Stage 1: Age
Rule out all runners 8 yrs old or over – remove 7, 12, 18
Statistically since 1955, only 5 winners have been 7 yr olds (Almandin (2016); Makybe Diva (2005); Rogan Josh (1999); Vintage Crop (1993); What a Nuisance (1985) – that’s 5 Winners from 62 ‘episodes’ of the race, 2 since Vintage Crop. Interestingly, the Overseas Trainers & Owners have obviously recognised these statistics – look at the number of 4, 5 & 6 yr olds in the race this year.
Rule out the 7 yr olds – remove 3, 14, 15
After Elimination Stage 1, down to 18 possible Winners.

Elimination Stage 2: Weight
This consideration is difficult this year because all bar 3 runners have 55.5 kgs or less, with the Caulfield Cup Winner only penalised 1 kg for that win, with 57.5 kgs here. Personally, I am not considering weight as a factor here because there is only 6.5 kgs between the 24 runners.

Elimination Stage 3: Distance
This is the MOST important consideration, I think. Remember we are looking for the Winner... 1. Won at 2400m+; 2. Placed 2400m+ in ANY of past 5 starts. The ONLY runner to have not meet criteria 1 is Youngstar (22), so I will need to go to criteria 2 to reduce the possibilities: Remove 8, 15

We are now down to 16 runners – 2/3rds of the Field!
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24
How hard is this race to pick the winner?

Elimination Stage 4: Pre-Post Price (Sunday – Sportsbet)
The last 21 years have the following results:
7/2; 6/1; 5/1; 14/1; 9/1; 11/2; 7/1; 5/2; 45/10; 18/1; 17/1; 40/1; 9/1; 12/1; 8/1; 18/1; 7/1; 7/1; 100/1; 10/1; 15/1…
Less than 15% of Winners priced above $16 – 62% of Winners priced UNDER $11.
That leaves 11 Yucatan (4/1); 23 Cross Counter (8/1) - below $11, with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10 - $16 or less.

Now down to 7 Runners, still a long way from the desired 3 – last year this was enough Elimination Stages, but we will need more for this year’s Event.

Elimination Stage 5: Australian Jockey
Rule out any non-Australian Jockey – remove 1, 2, & 5
Corey Brown won his 2nd Cup last year, I’m going to remove him because Harry White was the last to Jockey to win the Cup back-to-back on DIFFERENT horses (Arwon 1978 & Hyperno 1979), the most recent back-to-back winner is Glen Boss when he rode 3 in row on Makybe Diva. Interestingly, there have only been 5 Jockeys do it – White did it twice, winning on Think Big in 1974 & 75.

Now down to 4 runners: Marmelo (9), Avilius (10), Yucatan (11), Cross Counter (23)
Technically, McDonald is a Kiwi & Scofield a Saffer, but they have been riding here for a long time, so I consider them Aussie Riders.

I have to take one out, so I remove Cross Counter due to the injury doubt.

So there’s the 3 for this year’s 1st Leg: 9, 10, 11 – 2 x 5 yr olds & a 6 yr old; Yucatan (5/1), Marmelo (15/1), Arvilius (12/1), the Fav, the 2017 Fav & a Godolphin Stayer trained here. Marmelo & Avilius are drawn together in the middle of the field & Yucatan the ‘Carpark’.

The more I look at it, the more I think Marmelo is a good chance of upsetting Yucatan. He was equal favourite for this race last year & ran 9th, after a 1st up 6th in the Caulfield Cup. The price is right for me & who among us wouldn’t love to see the Owner follow through on his

Looking at the probable ‘speedmap’, I see Rostopovich & Yucatan working across. Best Solution pushing up inside them, with Runaway, Chestnut Coat & Ace High all going forward as well. I think it will be a good, solid pace up front – I would be shocked if they repeated the ‘walking race’ of 2 years ago because I reckon the International Trainers felt that’s why they got all beat by Michelle Payne’s mount.

I expect McDonald will be happy to sit 2 or 3 wide on Yucatan, in ‘free galloping room’. I think Bowman gets a great spot 1 or 2 out & 4 or 5 back. Best Solution does what he does best & hugs the rail, ‘bowling along’ in front - he can win it, if he runs the 2 Mile.

It could wind up a true staying test, so I’m happy to have both Marmelo & Avilius as my ‘run on’ chances. That said, I am always respectful of Aiden O’Brien so I have had a small bet on CliffsofMoher & I am wary of the well weighted Youngstar & Cross Counter - although the injury it sustained recently is a worry.

Godolphin are here to win it. The Internationals have now worked out the ‘profile’ required to give themselves the best chance of winning; a 4,5 or 6 yr old weighted around 54.5 kgs that is NOT dower, but a stayer who can quicken from the 2 furlong mark. While Lloyd Williams must always be respected in the big Cups – having won 4 of the past 11 Cups, including the last 2!

I don’t expect to win on the race, having only cracked the Trifecta twice in 30 odd years, but FWIW:

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 22 (20%) $42 (4 Units)
Stand Out Trifecta: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Field (25%) $132 (13 Units)

Box Pick 4: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 22, 23 (3%) $50 (5 Units)
Stand Out Pick 4: 9, 10, 11 / 1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 17, 22, 23 / Same as 2nd / Same as 2nd & 3rd (5%) $50 (5 Units)

There you go Lads, once again I’ve expelled way too much energy & effort on the hardest race in the Country to tip a winner – by no means do I believe I’ll come out in front, but hey, that’s not the point is it? Bullshit! It’s all about One’s wallet! Of which mine has taken a battering this Spring!

I hope that helps you a little in an even more difficult version of ‘The Great Race’ to analyse. If there are any Scratchings or late changes, I’ll update before the race. But that’s how I see it at this stage. As always enjoy the build-up & the Day. I have to work, but I do have access to the ONLY Television on Campus with an external Ariel… Hehehe

Injury doubt?? Faaaaaaaaaaaaark

[Corona Man]

Well stuff that. What’s in the next race?

[OnSong]

Looks like Avilius was pulled up. Deadset I've backed a fair few to be put down in recent years, hoping it's not curtains here too

[Corona Man]

Looks like Avilius was pulled up. Deadset I've backed a fair few to be put down in recent years, hoping it's not curtains here too

I was on it too. Was inconvenienced by the runner who broke down with a lap to go. Lost 8 lengths at that point. Spent the petrol tickets catching up to the field.

[OnSong]

Looks like Avilius was pulled up. Deadset I've backed a fair few to be put down in recent years, hoping it's not curtains here too

I was on it too. Was inconvenienced by the runner who broke down with a lap to go. Lost 8 lengths at that point. Spent the petrol tickets catching up to the field.

Ah yeah, that's fair enough then.

[Armchair expert]

The SAFOOTY.NET QUADDIE

Taken from the cup comp thread, big shout out to the morons who didn't add numbers next to their selections.......


1,3,6,9.10,11,13,15,16,17,22,23,24
1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,16
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,11,13,14,17
1,3,4,5,6,7,9,12,17

We still alive

We still alive, thanks to yours truly

[DOC]

We get the quaddie, pays$24246. Think we would have lost!

[daysofourlives]

We get the quaddie, pays$24246. Think we would have lost!

$6k profit according to the cost Booney posted of 18k

[Armchair expert]

Yep we win 6k for our 18k investment

WINNERS ARE GRINNERS

[Booney]

Bowman given a 30 day suspension for his ride on Marmelo.

[DOC]

Moreso, he was given half or thereabouts of the suspension for being 1kg overweight. I bet the connections of that horse are lamenting an opportunity lost.

[Brodlach]

Moreso, he was given half or thereabouts of the suspension for being 1kg overweight. I bet the connections of that horse are lamenting an opportunity lost.

How do you weigh out fine but weigh in a kilo over?


Did he stop for an all you can eat lunch on the way to the barrier?

[Lightning McQueen]

LM's horse scratched, disappointing for him, reason??

Barrier?

Yep, after the Monday night rain it was going to be too difficult to get across from the carpark where the barriers start on a bend, we were still hopeful as he was to ease out and slip behind them in the early stages, trainers decision is always the right one.

He's running Saturday in a race with bigger prize money and similar field, the enigma of running on Melbourne Cup day was the only real incentive to run yesterday but yeah, I woke up disappointed to read the email.

My day got better, went to the pub instead, walked in, went to put a tri on and there was the tiniest faint line near one of the race letters so the machine wouldn't read the ticket, by the time the bar staff fixed it the race had started and my ticket would've put me $180 up within minutes, she tried to make me look like an idiot too until I showed her what caused it, I then got a free beer.

[helicopterking]

Ive dabbled back into the ownership game.
Grafton
Race 1 -#9 Shinar.

[DOC]

Moreso, he was given half or thereabouts of the suspension for being 1kg overweight. I bet the connections of that horse are lamenting an opportunity lost.

How do you weigh out fine but weigh in a kilo over?


Did he stop for an all you can eat lunch on the way to the barrier?

Guessing. To make the weight he restricted fluids, soon as he weighed out he poured it in. Or, he was over when he weighed out (normally notified at the track).