2011 Brownlow

[Johno6]

you said it before the west coast game.... 2 rounds ago?
and he didnt even play aginst eagles and they had a bye last round

now im more confused

lol

[Squids]

I just dont think Boyd is that good, he is terribly overated. He gets alot of the ball but doesn't do a thing with it. Plenty of better vote getters at the dogs.

Conney, Griffen, Giansircusa to name a few.




--- I always have a housemate who goes for the Bulldogs so I have to hate them.

[JK]

Must admit I've paid a bit more attention to Boyd this season and his disposal efficiency does appear quite ordinary at times (haven't checked the stats, so could end up wearing egg here) .. Excellent ball winner, but I would have thought Griffen would have stood out a bit more this season. (obviously no Bulldog is going to take home Charlie)

[Johno6]

Would gian have any chance as leading votes for sogs

[brent-83]

Would gian have any chance as leading votes for sogs

None.

Boyd and Griffin the only chances, and TBH I reckon Boyd is comfortably in front.

[CK]

great preview CK, can you do a in depth preview on all the chances.

thanks

No worries, OL - I hope these aren't too lengthy:

Scott Pendlebury – averaging more disposals per game (28.7) than in 2010 (26.6), which is his career high. Has some monster matches , such as round 1 (Port – 32 disposals), Rnd 2 (North Melb – 39 disp), Rnd 5 (Ess, 34 disp, 11 marks, 3 goals), Rnd 10 (West Coast – 31 disp, 2 goals). His run from round 14 is solid – does not drop under 25 disposals in any of these matches, all of which are wins. Based on his good polling last year (21 votes for fourth), he would have to be right up there again. If his vote history holds, could easily be on 24+ at this stage

Matthew Boyd – Boyd is on career best disposal average also (30.9, against a previous best of 30.3 last year), but be really wary with this statistic. In only four Bulldogs wins, does he exceed 30 disposals, and while he has some games of very high numbers (including – round 5, Frem – 45 disp; round 7, Sydney – 33 disp; round 12, St Kilda – 39 disp and Round 19, West Coast – 40 disp), all of those are in losses. Some of these losses are narrow enough for him to still pick up 2’s and an occasional 3, but don’t take short odds on to win it with that history.

Adam Goodes – Yet another on high numbers, although short of his 2009 best of 21.3 disposals per game. Running at 20.6 this year, crucially, he is well down on his usual mark tally, but at a career best tackle average per match of 3.7. Has some bigger games in wins: Rnd 3, West Coast 21 disp, 5 marks, 3 goals; rnd 7, Western Bulldogs 24 disp, 6 marks, 8 tackles; rnd 8, Port 27 disp, 7 marks, 2 goals; rnd 18 Western Bulldogs 34 disp, 10 marks, 2 goals and rnd 19 Essendon 29 disp, 6 marks, 3 goals. We know he catches the eye, but the intangible this year is Jude Bolton’s form, and whether he can take votes. On the upside, the captaincy factor may also work in his favour, so top 5 not out of the question.

Dane Swan – For a player we are so used to seeing huge numbers from, interestingly, this is his best season for average disposals per game, at 31.6. Some games have such big numbers, that ordinarily it would be hard to ignore, but this year, he has also added goalkicking to his game – a facet not noted before, and he is one goal shy of his best season tally already.
Some bigger matches for him are round 1, Port : 34 disp, 3 goals; rnd 2, Nth Melb 40 disp, 1 goal; rnd 4, Richmond 33 disp, 4 goals; rnd 8 Geel (loss) 30 disp, 1 goal; rnd 14 Sydney 33 disp, 8 marks, 1 goal; rnd 16 Nth Melb 39 disp, 2 goals; rnd 19 Ess 45 disp, 1 goal. The issue with Swan will always be his polling in the last two seasons, but the possibility – and it is just that – of a “correction” by the umpires for the last two seasons, and the chance of being marked better for some of those big games. Some of his matches can’t be ignored, surely.

[CK]

Chris Judd – Bear in mind here, without blowing the trumpet too much, I tipped Judd on this same forum in the 2010 Brownlow thread in July last year, and do keep an eye on him carefully. His numbers are marginally better per game than last year, but Carlton also win far more games. A slight issue for him may be 3 losses in the first 9 rounds, when he is unlikely to poll in any of those losses. It’s highly possible his first votes won’t come until round 5 against Adelaide and even then, he could miss to Bryce Gibbs and David Ellard in that game. Should start the ball rolling in round 6 with a 33 disp game against Sydney, and should be on the sheet in the round 10 win against Melbourne with 31 touches. From here, he starts a big run, with possible votes in round 12 against Brisbane (31 disposals), clear BOG in round 15 Richmond (31, 2 goals), and should also get the maximum in round 18 (Essendon) and round 20 (Melbourne), with possible minor votes in losses in round 16 (Western Bulldogs) and round 17 (Collingwood). Knowing his polling history, however, there may be other games in there for votes BUT don’t be lulled into really short odds. I’m not at all convinced he is over the line, on sheer numbers, and particularly with the possibility of losing votes to....

Marc Murphy: Well and truly his best year, stats wise, he could easily start with BOG’s in round 1 (Richmond) and round 2 (Gold Coast), with 31 and 36 touches respectively. Also a real BOG chance in round 5 against Adelaide (34 disposals, 7 tackles), round 6, Sydney (25 disposals, 10 tackles, noting Judd should also poll here); round 10, Melbourne (31 disp, 7 tackles, and again fighting it out with Judd for votes); round 11, Port (32 disposals), round 12, Brisbane (28 disposals, 7 tackles), round 13 Sydney (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals). Possible minor vote in the round 18 win over Essendon (with Judd and Betts to get the other votes here).

One thing really worth noting with the two Carlton players: in only THREE games, does Murphy have more handballs than kicks. In TEN games, Judd has more handballs than kicks. This could prove very crucial in the minds of the umpires when deciding impact on games. Murphy is absolutely not to be discounted at all as a very live chance.

[overloaded]

great work CK.

I think you have summed it up pretty well and this is a great read.

How many players do you think can win it. How many are in the race?

[CK]

In all honesty, OL, I don't see the winner coming from outside any of the players I've mentioned, although will also write up Dean Cox in a moment. I suspect Boyd can be discounted overall and really have my doubts on Dal Santo also.

[CK]

Dean Cox: the thing to bear in mind here, is his best vote tally is only 12 votes (2006), and he has better seasons statistically. In 2008, he was averaging 22 disposals and 26 hitouts, yet only scored 3 votes. This year, however, he has pushed closer to goal and had a number of games with multiple goals.

In his favour this year are some clear dominant efforts in a winning team. He should almost certainly get the 2 or 3 in round 1 v North Melb, with 29 disp and 29 hitouts, 2 goals; rnd 2 v Port, 21 disp, 34 hitouts (with Andrew Embley getting the 3 votes here); possible votes in a loss to Sydney in round 3 (20 disp, 38 hitouts, 2 goals). Should get close to the maximum in the round 6 win over Melbourne with 23 disp, 12 marks, 20 hitouts; chance at a minor vote in the round 9 win over Western Bulldogs (Kennedy to get three here with 10 goals), after 23 touches, 33 hitouts; minor votes in the round 11 Gold Coast win (26 disp, 9 marks, 28 hitouts, 2 goals); minor votes in the round 17 loss to St Kilda (22 disp, 36 hitouts).

Should get the maximum in both round 18 v Fremantle (22 disp, 6 marks, 42 hitouts) and round 19 v Western Bulldogs (27 disp, 13 marks, 37 hitouts, winning goal). His chances should be clear by about round 6 - if he is alerady in double figures to that point, then he could be the one to swamp the leaders, provided he misses no more games with injury.

[overloaded]

thanks CK.

media park reckons Petrie is a chance. Where do you see him at? could he score most for Kangas?

[brent-83]

thanks CK.

media park reckons Petrie is a chance. Where do you see him at? could he score most for Kangas?

I reckon he is a very real chance for the Kangas this year. Swallow the obvious danger. If multies are allowed this year I'll be putting him in some that is for sure.

Reckon he is a chance to poll in Rd 6, 9, 12, 14, 17, 18.

[MAY-Z]

thanks CK.

media park reckons Petrie is a chance. Where do you see him at? could he score most for Kangas?

I reckon he is a very real chance for the Kangas this year. Swallow the obvious danger. If multies are allowed this year I'll be putting him in some that is for sure.

Reckon he is a chance to poll in Rd 6, 9, 12, 14, 17, 18.

i have him polling in 5 11 & 14

but i havent done past rd 16 in detail

[White Line Fever]

thanks CK.

media park reckons Petrie is a chance. Where do you see him at? could he score most for Kangas?

I reckon he is a very real chance for the Kangas this year. Swallow the obvious danger. If multies are allowed this year I'll be putting him in some that is for sure.

Reckon he is a chance to poll in Rd 6, 9, 12, 14, 17, 18.

I hope multis are allowed I will riding your coat tails this year !!!

[Stumps]

S. Thompson any chance of being around the mark? What are his odds or win \top 3?

[brent-83]

S. Thompson any chance of being around the mark? What are his odds or win \top 3?

Not enough wins to push top 3.

[PPLions]

Centrebet have odds up for the leading voter getter from each team now.
As expected, they wont allow multis.

Current odds for the medal:

Judd 1.63
Pendlebury 7.00
Goodes 9.00
Boyd 10.00
Murphy 10.00
Swan 12.00
Ablett 14.00

[White Line Fever]

Just for the record I've got $10 on Boyd at $61 earlier in year.

Can anyone confirm if multi are allowed this year in any form?

[overloaded]

Not bad value if you are thinking of backing Boyd and Cox in this bet....TAB have them shorter than that with Judd ion the market


Betstar....
AFL • BROWNLOW MEDAL WITHOUT JUDD

PENDLEBURY Scott 3.65
GOODES Adam 4.25
SWAN Dane 4.50
ABLETT Gary 7.00
MURPHY Marc 7.00
DAL SANTO Nick 12.00
BOYD Matthew 13.00
Any Other Player 15.00
COX Dean 21.00

[Squids]

Stop wasting money and just put it all on Judd.



Still $1.92 at Betfair...30c better than Sportsbet and Centrebet.....what top value.