Horse Racing Tips & Discussion

[gadj1976]

MR 8 5 $7.50 fixed. Looks good to me.
BR 7 6
BR 8 1

[gadj1976]

MR 8 5 $7.50 fixed. Looks good to me.
BR 7 6
BR 8 1

Just a second in the last in Bris.

[Brodlach]

RIP Better Loosen Up, just about my all time favourite horse. Huge win for Australia in the 1990 Japan Cup

[mighty_tiger_79]

RIP Better Loosen Up, just about my all time favourite horse. Huge win for Australia in the 1990 Japan Cup

RIP

He would been a good age

[Brodlach]

30 years old

[Booney]

Pakenham Quaddie this evening :

1,3,5,13,14/1,5,11,12/1,2,5,7/1,7,9,12

[Spargo]

Really keen on Lauterbrunnen in the 7th at Doomben tomorrow. Nicely weighted & ready to win.
I doubt the $4.50 on offer at the moment will be there come race day.

[Booney]

Pakenham Quaddie this evening :

1,3,5,13,14/1,5,11,12/1,2,5,7/1,7,9,12

Yeah....always the ******* way.

[LPH]

2nd Favourite Day’s Racing every year, for me – behind Derby Day in Melbourne.
5 Group 1s @ Rosehill, although its debatable whether or not a 2 yr old race should carry over $3 million in prize money. This has always been a bit of ‘bug-bear’ of mine because I think it’s a major contributing factor in why Breeders & Owners focus on Sprinters & young horses for quick returns & why less Australasian horses are competing in the Melbourne Cup – anyway enough Political discussion.

To the races (BTW, Hope you got a piece of the $26 The Quarterback )

I don’t like the Bendigo Meeting, this time each year, I think there are too many ‘intangibles’ to bet with any confidence, so I’m betting away from that venue.

Golden Slipper – I like a couple in this race; Flying Artie & Good Standing. If I can get EVEN money the PLACE for Flying Artie, I’ll go hard. I think he will settle back & Ollie will need a bit of luck in the straight, but he’ll be finishing hard – he’s a genuine winning hope, I think he’ll be better in the Sires Produce over 7 furlongs, but he’s well in tomorrows race. The other one is a colt that won the Skyline. If he can reproduce that run, he will take a ‘power of running down’. Jockey is the best in Sydney IMHO, I know McDonald won the Premiership, but Bowman gets the best out of most of his mounts, where JM tends to ride for the better owners in Goldolphin. I like the $15 & the $4.20 for Good Standing (Ladbrokes) that will do me. In the past I have applied the following ‘system’ to picking the winner of the Slipper – it has worked very well in isolating the winner:
1. Eliminate any horse that has never started by March 11th
2. Eliminate any horse that has not run @ Rosehill
3. Eliminate any horse drawn outside barrier 10
4. Eliminate any horse that has finished further back than 4th at any start
5. Eliminate any visiting rider who is not well up his premiership table
6. Eliminate any horse that has not won, one of its most recent 3 starts
7. Eliminate any horse with a win strike % below 33%, unless the horse has a win/place figure of 25/100

Applying this system, came up with the following Horses:
No. 8 Good Standing, No. 13 Yankee Rose, No. 15 Honesty Prevails

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 8, 13, 15


George Ryder – Best horse in the country, Winx? One would have to answer Yes to that question, but unfortunately as a result, we'll never get a price about her - same as Black Caviar
I think First Seal can run well @ $10, can she beat Winx? Logic would say no, but anything can happen. I also like Turn Me Loose @ $9 & don't forget the 3 yr old, Press Statement. I think I'll 'punt' on Turn Me Loose @ the Price - a small win bet I think.

Galaxy – Flamberge scratched. Rosehill’s shute is really difficult to get across from a wide gate & the amount of work they have to do will mean the last 100m will be telling. Dothraki had excuses in the Oakleigh Plate (was wide the whole trip) & considering that, ran well for 7th. 2nd Up record is good 50% win, 5/6 Placing. Gate is perfect, Rider very good, Trainer excellent. $21 & $6 very juicy, that will do me!

As for the rest of the card? Money back up to $50 for the 1st 4 races, so perhaps a punt on those races with well priced runners might be an option too. Weary let me down last week – needed the run? Small field, big price, Money back the win, I’ll back up E/Way this week with Zac Purton taking the ride. Rank outsider, $51 & $13. But a 1 x 4 bet, knowing money back for win, might be worth a small gamble. He can cause a ‘boil over’, whether he will or not – I’d hate to not be on @ those odds & besides, $13 for 3rd will do

Happy Punting Lads

[Booney]

Slipper - Kiss and make up.

Waterhouse has 6 Slippers, Kiss and make up good enough to make it 7 for her.

[OnSong]

2nd Favourite Day’s Racing every year, for me – behind Derby Day in Melbourne.
5 Group 1s @ Rosehill, although its debatable whether or not a 2 yr old race should carry over $3 million in prize money. This has always been a bit of ‘bug-bear’ of mine because I think it’s a major contributing factor in why Breeders & Owners focus on Sprinters & young horses for quick returns & why less Australasian horses are competing in the Melbourne Cup – anyway enough Political discussion.

To the races (BTW, Hope you got a piece of the $26 The Quarterback )

I don’t like the Bendigo Meeting, this time each year, I think there are too many ‘intangibles’ to bet with any confidence, so I’m betting away from that venue.

Golden Slipper – I like a couple in this race; Flying Artie & Good Standing. If I can get EVEN money the PLACE for Flying Artie, I’ll go hard. I think he will settle back & Ollie will need a bit of luck in the straight, but he’ll be finishing hard – he’s a genuine winning hope, I think he’ll be better in the Sires Produce over 7 furlongs, but he’s well in tomorrows race. The other one is a colt that won the Skyline. If he can reproduce that run, he will take a ‘power of running down’. Jockey is the best in Sydney IMHO, I know McDonald won the Premiership, but Bowman gets the best out of most of his mounts, where JM tends to ride for the better owners in Goldolphin. I like the $15 & the $4.20 for Good Standing (Ladbrokes) that will do me. In the past I have applied the following ‘system’ to picking the winner of the Slipper – it has worked very well in isolating the winner:
1. Eliminate any horse that has never started by March 11th
2. Eliminate any horse that has not run @ Rosehill
3. Eliminate any horse drawn outside barrier 10
4. Eliminate any horse that has finished further back than 4th at any start
5. Eliminate any visiting rider who is not well up his premiership table
6. Eliminate any horse that has not won, one of its most recent 3 starts
7. Eliminate any horse with a win strike % below 33%, unless the horse has a win/place figure of 25/100

Applying this system, came up with the following Horses:
No. 8 Good Standing, No. 13 Yankee Rose, No. 15 Honesty Prevails

Box Trifecta: 1, 2, 7, 8, 13, 15


George Ryder – Best horse in the country, Winx? One would have to answer Yes to that question, but unfortunately as a result, we'll never get a price about her - same as Black Caviar
I think First Seal can run well @ $10, can she beat Winx? Logic would say no, but anything can happen. I also like Turn Me Loose @ $9 & don't forget the 3 yr old, Press Statement. I think I'll 'punt' on Turn Me Loose @ the Price - a small win bet I think.

Galaxy – Flamberge scratched. Rosehill’s shute is really difficult to get across from a wide gate & the amount of work they have to do will mean the last 100m will be telling. Dothraki had excuses in the Oakleigh Plate (was wide the whole trip) & considering that, ran well for 7th. 2nd Up record is good 50% win, 5/6 Placing. Gate is perfect, Rider very good, Trainer excellent. $21 & $6 very juicy, that will do me!

As for the rest of the card? Money back up to $50 for the 1st 4 races, so perhaps a punt on those races with well priced runners might be an option too. Weary let me down last week – needed the run? Small field, big price, Money back the win, I’ll back up E/Way this week with Zac Purton taking the ride. Rank outsider, $51 & $13. But a 1 x 4 bet, knowing money back for win, might be worth a small gamble. He can cause a ‘boil over’, whether he will or not – I’d hate to not be on @ those odds & besides, $13 for 3rd will do

Happy Punting Lads

If I find time I'll try and follow these!

[gadj1976]

BR 1 7 (Fri night)

[mighty_tiger_79]

just had a quick squiz at the Sydney quaddie......................mmmmmm it is an absolute dart job for me.

of any races that I have seen recently, none have been Sydney on a Saturday, so am only really relying on the Melbourne form..........and that generally doesn't stack up in Sydney against the home track advantage

so FWIW the numbers I have come up with this thus far, but will need to be looked at and culled at some stage are

1st leg - 1,2,3,4,7,8,13,14
im not real sure on the 13, a maiden from NZ, must have something going for it, and Opie on it.......
the 4 is the real value here at 40/1.
2l from the winner in the Vic Derby, 3rd up tomorrow, should be close to peak fitness and is the value here.
14 - Jameka - I love this horse, I feel its a tad short at the $6.50 however from the draw.

2nd - leg - 1,2,4,7,8. these are my main players here and there isn't anything among them that no one else has found.
a few roughies at massive odds 13,15,16,17 - most have form around each other.
13 - is $26 and beat the 8 last start and has a better draw than the 8.........who is half its price...
15,16,17 - are all drawn well to be right in the race, and to be honest if one of these bobs up, I wouldn't be shocked....

3rd leg - ridiculously difficult
2,3,7,9,10,11,13

risking the 14 and 17

there are a host of other chances who are also in the mix here.......

4th leg
now I must be seeing something here, I haven't had a drink yet, that's about to be poured, but I just have the 1 as my clear cut top pick
I like the 16,17 as some roughies. 16 - for Kathy, who can whip me as many times as she likes in the final 100m, and its drawn well.

looking deeper, I guess 4,5,7,8,10,13 are in the mix, but really the toppy looks a special at $9.....

[gadj1976]

18/Mar/16 6:34 PM SB 834992 BR07 OPEN HANDICAP - PLUTORIUS WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:29 PM SB 835236 SR09 BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES - TWO BLUE WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:28 PM 19/03 SR 8 WP 15
18/Mar/16 6:26 PM SB 835210 SR07 GOLDEN SLIPPER - HONESTY PREVAILS WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:25 PM SB 835184 SR06 ROSEHILL GUINEAS - VANBRUGH WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:24 PM SB 835168 SR04 RANVET STAKES - HAURAKI Win
18/Mar/16 6:24 PM SB 835161 SR03 THE SEBRING - DENPURR WinPlc

[LPH]

Good Standing NEVER in it
Flying Artie $2.30 Best Tote
Box Trifecta!!! Hope you got on!
Dothraki $6 yesterday!!! (Paid $3.50 today)

[Spargo]

Really keen on Lauterbrunnen in the 7th at Doomben tomorrow. Nicely weighted & ready to win.
I doubt the $4.50 on offer at the moment will be there come race day.

No luck whatsoever - senior jockey would've helped.

[gadj1976]

18/Mar/16 6:34 PM SB 834992 BR07 OPEN HANDICAP - PLUTORIUS WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:29 PM SB 835236 SR09 BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES - TWO BLUE WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:28 PM 19/03 SR 8 WP 15
18/Mar/16 6:26 PM SB 835210 SR07 GOLDEN SLIPPER - HONESTY PREVAILS WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:25 PM SB 835184 SR06 ROSEHILL GUINEAS - VANBRUGH WinPlc
18/Mar/16 6:24 PM SB 835168 SR04 RANVET STAKES - HAURAKI Win
18/Mar/16 6:24 PM SB 835161 SR03 THE SEBRING - DENPURR WinPlc

She Touse

[stampy]

how many name changes has sandown had in the last few years ffs

[mighty_tiger_79]

Shizen track anyway

[LPH]

Had a pretty good day on the punt last week – the Trifecta in the Slipper helped but the Place Divi of $6 on Dothraki was ‘Golden’

So to this week - another Cracking BMW this year. This WFA event has really improved in the quality of the fields since the ATC moved it away from Golden Slipper Day, as a ‘stand alone’ Group 1 Major. Also its Easter, so Oakbank is on. Although I love all Horse Racing, Jumps Racing is actually my fav – in fact, when I lived in the UK, I really enjoyed watching Jumps Dog Racing – yes, they really have Greyhound Hurdle Races – feckin’ funny when they clip the hurdle & ‘cartwheel’ over it – !!!

Anyway, to the races:
I have been going to Oakbank since the mid 70s. We used to go as 6 families on the Monday, arrive @ 4:30am & park on top of the Hill in the Members. One Dad used to bring a TV & plug it into his lighter socket in his car & the TV would sit on the bonnet!
Can you remember Channel 9 had the coverage & KEVIN SATLER used to do the hosting? Yes, I am actually THAT old.

That Dad (Lee his name was) was a big punter & would go ‘racing’ every week. His words have stayed with me since:
“At Oakbank, back horses that are either trained on track or have won @ the track” – this has made me some good money over the years.
With this in mind, I have the following bets on the Flat for Saturday: Race 5 North Beach @ $51 & $14 – check its form @ Oakbank, & the main bet is Riziz in Race 6 – the gate is a concern, but I think he can ‘burn them off’ & get the lead before the run down the hill. I reckon the $2.50 on offer the Place is ‘easy money’ – he can win @ the $7.50 as well, 1 x 3 units. He’ll do me – gunna back him tonight @ that price as I don’t think I will get that good on Saturday.
So far as the Jump Races – the size of the fields are really disappointing but in Race 3, the Hurdle, I like the Musgrove runner No. 2 Earthbound. Musgrove has 3 of the 8 runners in the race but this one has the BEST form over the jumps. You can disregard the trial 4th of 5, he would’ve just been ‘having a look’ at the course. Pateman is an outstanding Jumps Jockey – just load up @ the $8 & $2.25 – 1 x 4 units.

Rosehill Races – the last meeting of the Carnival in Parramatta.
BMW looks a cracking race this year. Looking back on the previous winners of the race; there are Melbourne Cup Winners, Cox Plate Winners, Caulfield Cup Winners who have won this Mile & ½ WFA Classic. I am an Our Ivanhowe fan & was disappointed with his performance in the Australian Cup (well my wallet was, anyway). After the run in the Peter Young, I was confident he’d at least place in the Cup – he didn’t. Was the race run to suit? Perhaps not. Does he turn the tables on Preferment? I think so but only because Preferment is a better Mile ¼ horse than the 2400m. But as usual, for me at least, the price is too short @ $4.80.

Instead I’m looking @ Grand Marshal Eachway – will definitely run trip & will be able to settle forward. I also like the 3 yr old Montaigne. If Tarzino was running in this race, he’d be favourite & probably win it IMHO. This bloke ran 2nd to Tarzino in the Rosehill Guineas, albeit a well-beaten 2nd. Jockey, gate & weight are all favourable, as is the distance. The $10 & $3.10 with Ladbrokes fixed I’ll take but you might get a bit better ‘Best Tote’ tomorrow. Box Trifecta: 1, 4, 5, 9, 10

Vinery Stud Stakes for the fillies. I have been a fan of Jameka since the early Spring & she’s made me some money, particularly her Oaks win in November. She should run Top 3 at Randwick in a fortnight, all things being equal. At the set weights of 56kgs tomorrow, she should be too good for these – the danger (on form) is Risque. That said, again, the price is too short the win, for both. That said; $1.80 the place (if you could get it) would be OK, I think. I don’t believe anything below the Top 7 can win the race. I worry about the Hong Kong Jockeys & their inability to adapt to our ‘whip rules’, so that always warns me off backing Pebble & Purton. I am backing Honesta @ the price. $17 & $5 is good enough for her 3rd Up. Probably being set for a fortnight but if she’s to run well in the Oaks, then she’d need to run Top 5 here, One would think. 1 x 4 Units & happy for her to run 3rd.

If you are venturing to Oakbank, enjoy the Jumps & don’t get too hammered
Happy Punting, Lads.