AFL RD 12

[redwhiteandblueblooded]

Well, Sydneys **** kicking fked me over today. Very disappointing result.

ditto!
bastards

[Johno6]

my 2 bets for the weekend are

Saints - 12.5 at $1.90

Multi

St Kilda -12.5
West Coast -8.5
Geelong 1-39
Collingwood -30.5
@ $14.40

good start

[mighty_tiger_79]

nice work Johno

[Johno6]

I lost a decent Amount on Miamis last 2 games. So really needed it

Interested to see odds of dogs v crows next week

[mighty_tiger_79]

I lost a decent Amount on Miamis last 2 games. So really needed it

Interested to see odds of dogs v crows next week

dogs $1.30 if not shorter and thats my opinion

[Big Al]

nice one johnno
I would have the dogs at $1.60

[Johno6]

No tipper this week. Can't see crows scoring goals.
I think dogs will win by 5 goals

[OnSong]

Here's how I see the round unfolding:

Game 1:

Hate the Saints, hate betting on the Dogs more, will probs leave this match alone.
However, ins for the Dogs include Hudson (I rate his work rate), Libba (little star) and Cooney (probably better for the break).
Outs for Saints include Montagna (gun) and they've brought in Gamble and R Clarke (spuds), as well as Gram.
Midfield will be carried by Nick Dal Santo, Jack Steven and David Armitage against Griffen, Boyd and Ward. It's here the Dogs have the ascendency (if any).
Morris will have Roo and these two sides are low-scorers in previous encounters.

Best bets: Avoid the Saints line bet here. I can't see it being a high scoring match. Dogs line of 12.5 looks value. FAIL The 25 point head start at $1.50 looks a little more secure. WIN
Either team under 15.5 @ $2.80 FAIL
I reckon one of these teams is a shot for lowest score of the round (StK $17, WB $9) FAIL (But got close, the Dees ruined it on Sunday. )
A bit of a random one: StK/Wbd/StK/StK @ $26 (just for fun). FAIL
I started my multis with match score under 179.5 @ $1.85 WIN



Game 2:

I never bet on my own team and Adelaide are playing terribly.
Looking at the line-up, WC shades them just in the midfield, Embley on a wing against Petrenko looks volatile. He ripped up Port last time he was at AAMI.
The Crows are light on goal kicking power, with only Tippett carrying any danger of kicking a bag. Our defence has been good but geez, Darling, Lynch, Le Cras and Kennedy will surely score more than Tippett, Gunston, Douglas and Wright.

Best bets: WC @ $1.65 represents value. WIN The Crows have been dismal in last quarters too, perhaps 4th quarter highest scoring @ $3.40 is a good thing too. WIN

Game 3:

I can’t really read the GC and North are hardly consistent. I won’t bet on this game.
The Suns weren’t bad @ home against the Cats, so perhaps $2.65 at half time is the go here.
The Kangas lost to Brissy, who lost to the Coasters, the GC line of 20 points looks tempting.

Best bets: GC line (20.5) $1.90 FAIL and bit random: GC/GC/NM/NM ($17). FAIL

Game 4:

Don’t ask me why, I have a feeling for the Hawks this week. Franklin in, Cyril up and about, should test the undefeated Cats, who are waiting for the next challenge. For me, it’s just a matter of time for Geelong to lose and the Hawks are a bit of a bogey team. Selwood named on the pine is also a strange one…? The Hawks LOVE the G. J-pod not so much…..

Best bets: Hawthorn $2.75. FAIL Hawthorn line +15.5 @ 1.90. WIN Random: Hawks 40-49 $21. FAIL

PS: Be sure to cover your arse with Geelong in other multis.

Game 5:

Won’t bet on the result of this one, the Lions without big red Merritt to take Waite. Waite most goals of the round would be a good bet, as would Brown, who will be Brissy’s only avenue to the big sticks. I think Unitab have nailed the line here, so I’m even nervous about that to be honest.

Best bets: Carlton 40 to 59 @ $4 seems nice. FAIL (by 2 points! Ack!)


Game 6:

Sydney are a great team at home especially. The Tigers have little hope of knocking them off. The Swans have too many guns. O’Keefe, Goodes, McVeigh, Kennedy, Bolton all in good form, plus Malceski and Jack in. Swans will cover that line nicely. Two milestones too so get around it.

Best bets: Sydney -22.5 @ $1.90. FAIL Goodes named at FF so perhaps a good thing for first goal/most goals. FAIL

Game 7:

The Dons welcome back Watson, Welsh and Hurley, axing some no name spuds at last. They’ve been poo without Watson. Freo without Sandi are real stragglers. The Dons are near full strength this week. I like them to bounce back in Perth.

Best bets: Essendon $1.97. FAIL Can they do it in a big way? $7.50 says they can by more than 40. FAIL I might have a small dabble at that.

Game 8:

The Pies have some guns out and I liked the Demons last week. They keep their solid line-up while the Pies lose arguably 2 of their best 3 middies. Collingwood’s fwd and def is pretty nice-looking though, while the Dees break even with them in the centre. The Pies love a last quarter so the $3.25 for highest scoring quarter seems the go. They should cover the 5 goal line too. Just. For a saver, either team under 15.5 @ $4 might be the go. FAIL

Best bets: Coll -29.5 @ 1.90. WIN 4th Quarter highest scoring @ $3.25 WIN

Well, there's a review of how my weekend's punting went.
I didn't obviously bet on all of them, as Sydney's margin was the only one that cost several of my multis. No collects but I nailed the highest scoring quarters of the two matches. How Freo drubbed Essendon with no Mundy and Sandi is beyond me.

[Big Al]

nice one johnno
I would have the dogs at $1.60

more like $1.25 are the crows going that bad