AFL RD 15

[mighty_tiger_79]

ive no doubt we will win easily but 100points im not sure

we took the foot off the pedal v adelaide and have done it a couple of times this season

[OnSong]

ive no doubt we will win easily but 100points im not sure

we took the foot off the pedal v adelaide and have done it a couple of times this season

Took the foot off the pedal? Pfft. Geelong were bulldozed by a powerful side.

[CoverKing]

Dees/swans/pies/Roos

Despite kangas terrible form against the saints, the saints coming off a bye, kangas in a terrific form! Dees cause bullies are terrible, swans because Adelaide are the worse team in the comp IMO, and pies because they are just too good

[mighty_tiger_79]

carlton +21.5/freo +6.5/cats +2.5/ port magpies win = $1.95 then add north adel win = $2.22


blues +13.5/freo -1.5/cats -3.5/pies +17.5/ port magpies win = $2.26 then add north adel win = $3.40

[OnSong]

To change things up a bit, I'm using site sponsor Sportsbet odds this week.

Game 1: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

I tipped the Dees in the toss of the coin game last week and this one is similar. The Bullies love Etihad but I like Frawley on Hall and Rivers on Jones more than I like Markovic and Williams on Watts and Jurrah. Probably best for a no-bet this one as I'm not confident but I'll be tipping the Demons tonight. Just the whole Etihad factor puts me off.

Best bets: Demons 1-39 looks like value to me @ $2.40.

Game 2: Richmond v Carlton

Expect a typical Richmond dogfight in this clash. Jamison out paves the way for J-Roo. The Blues have too many winners in the line-up to back against them with any conviction though. Typically high-scoring games, weather permitting, clearing 180 points or more 9 of the last 10 encounters.

Best bets: Cartlon 1-39 @ $2.25.

Game 3: Fremantle v Gold Coast

Pav's 250th will be a big win for the Dockers. But the GC travelled to Paterson's stadium quite well last time they played West Coast. West Coast are better than Freo, which makes you wonder. No bet game for me. Nothing appeals at all.

Best bets: GC line of 40.5 @ $1.92

Game 4: Essendon v Geelong

Geelong fans are saying the Cats by how much and I agree with them. The last four games between these two have yielded comfortable Geelong wins and this shall be no different.

Best bets: Geelong 40+ @ $1.71 coz I saw them take their foot off the pedal against Adelaide last week. 60+ is $2.70. Tempted.

Game 5: Adelaide v Sydney

Again, we have one target up forward and we kick terribly to him. Last quarter last week was indicative of a reasonable game style with Tippett in the ruck. Our defence has been excellent and strengthened with the inclusion of Talia. Patty Dangerfield at CHF looks like the move of a mad-man. Surely we can't win?? Sydney with Reed, Goodes and O'Keefe look too potent. They did a number on us last year at AAMI. More often than not low-scoring encounters. Slippery conditions, watch for the low match score lines.

I can't pick the Crows. Surely not.
Best bets: Sydney $1.42.

Game 6: Brisbane v Port Adelaide

The missus picked West Coast as bet of the round last week and claims Port are this week. So, to test her theory, I will be putting her weekly tip in my previews. Carlile out probably isn't a bad thing for Port fans, giving Jackson Trengove a key defensive role. I like Brisbane at the Gabba but for some reason, the missus feels the Power will pull a win out of the hat. I doubt it. Port v Brissy have been previously high scoring and relatively close.

Best bets: She says - Port 1-39 @ $3.60. I say Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.25.

Game 7: Collingwood v Hawthorn

Hawks with no Cyril but Buddy back. These two teams seem to zig zag in form in recent years. Dane Swan averages over 34 touches in their last three, should be a good H2H disposals battle with Sam Mitchell. No bet game for me but should be a cracker. Generally high-scoring encounters but watch the weather. Buddy also some solid returns against the Pies in recent years. Buddy has bags of over 5 goals in three of their last four as well.

Best bets: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20.

Game 8: North Melbourne v St Kilda

The panel of the footy show like the Roos and Saints of the bye might find it hard to break the hoodoo. Problem with the Kangas is they are a young team and their consistency has been over expectation. I reckon the Kangas have fooled a few and the Saints will win. Riewoldt has kicked 7 in their last two games against the Roos.

Best bets: St Kilda $1.80. Saints 40+ $6.20.

Specials:

Most goals: N Riewoldt, Franklin

Most disposals: S Black as a roughie.

Lowest score: Port $11 and St Kilda $17s appear value. Saints have struggled to score at times this year. Adelaide @ $5 will probably be the winner though!

[mighty_tiger_79]

i agree with the freo game, and freo dont have sandilands either i dont think?????/

but surely the fraudmantle will get a win here......

dont like tonights game

and ive got a stupid gut feeling about port as well so again im staying out of that

[Big Al]

had a few $2 line bets on the following for the weekend
Nth melb +2
collingwood -23
brisbane -17.5
freo -40
Carlton -25.5

[Swervyn]

Good write up... Just thought Id throw a few arguments out there.

How would Adelaides backline be strengthened by the inclusion of Talia?? 1st gamer!?!?!

Collingwood go in with a big forward line I reckon Cloke, Dawes, Brown maybe even swing Tarrant up there..Hawks cant cover that. Plus Jolly is 10 times the player of Hale. Hopefully weather stays away & Pies by Plenty!

North have won 4 in a row, all crap teams though, St Kilda are currently a crap team so therefore the Roos can win. Reiwoldt kicked 7 in past couple of games against North you say... Well he has had about 7 kicks in his last 2 games in 2011. Thompson to hold him.

[gadj1976]

2/07/2011 7:38:21 PM 531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $14.28

2/07/2011 7:38:21 PM 531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $9.18

2/07/2011 7:38:20 PM 531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
$2 = $5.67

2/07/2011 7:38:20 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $13.94

2/07/2011 7:38:19 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
$2 = $8.61

2/07/2011 7:38:19 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
$2 = $5.53

2/07/2011 7:38:18 PM 531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $19.27

2/07/2011 7:38:18 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $29.27

2/07/2011 7:38:17 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $18.81

2/07/2011 7:38:16 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
$2 = $11.62

2/07/2011 7:38:16 PM 1016 * AFL:AFL R15 WBd-Melb H2H Western Bulldogs $2.05
531057 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel QrByQr Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel $1.35
531148 * AFL:AFL R15 Adel-Syd PtsSt Sydney -20.5 $2.10
531340 * AFL:AFL R15 Bris-Port Mgn24.5 Brisbane 1-24 $3.40
$2 = $39.51

2/07/2011 7:19:14 PM 531139 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel SMargin Geelong 100+ $9.00
531722 * AFL:AFL R15 NMlb-StK Mgn24.5 North Melbourne 1-24 $3.50
$2 = $63.00

2/07/2011 7:19:12 PM 530888 * AFL:AFL R15 Frem-GC HTLine Gold Coast +20.5 $1.90
531722 * AFL:AFL R15 NMlb-StK Mgn24.5 North Melbourne 1-24 $3.50
$2 = $13.30

2/07/2011 7:19:12 PM 530888 * AFL:AFL R15 Frem-GC HTLine Gold Coast +20.5 $1.90
531139 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel SMargin Geelong 100+ $9.00
$2 = $34.20

2/07/2011 7:19:10 PM 530888 * AFL:AFL R15 Frem-GC HTLine Gold Coast +20.5 $1.90
531139 * AFL:AFL R15 Ess-Geel SMargin Geelong 100+ $9.00
531722 * AFL:AFL R15 NMlb-StK Mgn24.5 North Melbourne 1-24 $3.50
$2 = $119.70

[OnSong]

To change things up a bit, I'm using site sponsor Sportsbet odds this week.

Game 1: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

I tipped the Dees in the toss of the coin game last week and this one is similar. The Bullies love Etihad but I like Frawley on Hall and Rivers on Jones more than I like Markovic and Williams on Watts and Jurrah. Probably best for a no-bet this one as I'm not confident but I'll be tipping the Demons tonight. Just the whole Etihad factor puts me off.

Best bets: Demons 1-39 looks like value to me @ $2.40. FAIL

Game 2: Richmond v Carlton

Expect a typical Richmond dogfight in this clash. Jamison out paves the way for J-Roo. The Blues have too many winners in the line-up to back against them with any conviction though. Typically high-scoring games, weather permitting, clearing 180 points or more 9 of the last 10 encounters.

Best bets: Cartlon 1-39 @ $2.25. FAIL

Game 3: Fremantle v Gold Coast

Pav's 250th will be a big win for the Dockers. But the GC travelled to Paterson's stadium quite well last time they played West Coast. West Coast are better than Freo, which makes you wonder. No bet game for me. Nothing appeals at all.

Best bets: GC line of 40.5 @ $1.92 FAIL

Game 4: Essendon v Geelong

Geelong fans are saying the Cats by how much and I agree with them. The last four games between these two have yielded comfortable Geelong wins and this shall be no different.

Best bets: Geelong 40+ @ $1.71 FAIL coz I saw them take their foot off the pedal against Adelaide last week. 60+ is $2.70. Tempted. FAIL

Game 5: Adelaide v Sydney

Again, we have one target up forward and we kick terribly to him. Last quarter last week was indicative of a reasonable game style with Tippett in the ruck. Our defence has been excellent and strengthened with the inclusion of Talia. Patty Dangerfield at CHF looks like the move of a mad-man. Surely we can't win?? Sydney with Reed, Goodes and O'Keefe look too potent. They did a number on us last year at AAMI. More often than not low-scoring encounters. Slippery conditions, watch for the low match score lines.

I can't pick the Crows. Surely not.
Best bets: Sydney $1.42. FAIL

Game 6: Brisbane v Port Adelaide

The missus picked West Coast as bet of the round last week and claims Port are this week. So, to test her theory, I will be putting her weekly tip in my previews. Carlile out probably isn't a bad thing for Port fans, giving Jackson Trengove a key defensive role. I like Brisbane at the Gabba but for some reason, the missus feels the Power will pull a win out of the hat. I doubt it. Port v Brissy have been previously high scoring and relatively close.

Best bets: She says - Port 1-39 @ $3.60. FAIL I say Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.25. WIN

Game 7: Collingwood v Hawthorn

Hawks with no Cyril but Buddy back. These two teams seem to zig zag in form in recent years. Dane Swan averages over 34 touches in their last three, should be a good H2H disposals battle with Sam Mitchell. No bet game for me but should be a cracker. Generally high-scoring encounters but watch the weather. Buddy also some solid returns against the Pies in recent years. Buddy has bags of over 5 goals in three of their last four as well.

Best bets: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20. FAIL

Game 8: North Melbourne v St Kilda

The panel of the footy show like the Roos and Saints of the bye might find it hard to break the hoodoo. Problem with the Kangas is they are a young team and their consistency has been over expectation. I reckon the Kangas have fooled a few and the Saints will win. Riewoldt has kicked 7 in their last two games against the Roos.

Best bets: St Kilda $1.80. WIN Saints 40+ $6.20. FAIL

Specials:

Most goals: N Riewoldt, Franklin FAIL

Most disposals: S Black as a roughie. FAIL

Lowest score: Port $11 FAIL and St Kilda $17s FAIL appear value. Saints have struggled to score at times this year. Adelaide @ $5 FAIL will probably be the winner though!

Not much green amongst that lot but if you took my tips on total match scores you would have been well and truly up for the weekend, unless you had Geelong in your multis.
I had a belting 24/1 multi starting with Cartlon highest score of the round ($6) into Coll win, Geelong 40+ and St Kilda. F*ck you Geelong.

What did we learn though?

Avoid backing a team in a match involving Melbourne.

[Pag]

I had a crap weekend too.

Melbourne Tri over 15.5 - Loss
Sydney 1-39 - Loss
Geelong -44.5 - Loss
Collingwood -22.5 - Win

[Johno6]

I had a good weekend but was only couple smaller bets and a small multi.
Next week is my bets for a syndi I'm in.
So will hopefully hav a great weekend.

[OnSong]

I had a good weekend but was only couple smaller bets and a small multi.
Next week is my bets for a syndi I'm in.
So will hopefully hav a great weekend.

I had a good weekend with most of my other legs. Just Geelong effed me in the A.

Collingwood last week, Geelong this week, what a crock of shite.

[OnSong]

What were the Dons paying? There was nothing in favour of them winning that match. Nothing. Maybe the Etihad factor?

[OnSong]

If you took early week odds, you would have got 180 to 1 to pick the 8. Lol

[Johno6]

They would've been about $7
I still don't know how they won
Worst thing is now a fired up Geelong play eagles off the bue
I don't think home gelid advantage will still help

[mighty_tiger_79]

They would've been about $7
I still don't know how they won
Worst thing is now a fired up Geelong play eagles off the bue
I don't think home gelid advantage will still help

am i missing something here - gelid

[mighty_tiger_79]

What were the Dons paying? There was nothing in favour of them winning that match. Nothing. Maybe the Etihad factor?

8 day break v 6 day break

plus you did say that geelong were bulldozed by a powerful side when it was suggested geelong had taken the foot off the pedal v crows - and it looks like you were spot on as the bombers are a better side then the crows, and if the crows bulldozed the cats then why wouldnt the bombers

[mighty_tiger_79]

They would've been about $7
I still don't know how they won
Worst thing is now a fired up Geelong play eagles off the bue
I don't think home gelid advantage will still help

cats go west and then to the gabba

i wouldve thought they wouldve won v bombers but droppped against the west coast and then maybe rest some v brisbane

[OnSong]

What were the Dons paying? There was nothing in favour of them winning that match. Nothing. Maybe the Etihad factor?

8 day break v 6 day break

plus you did say that geelong were bulldozed by a powerful side when it was suggested geelong had taken the foot off the pedal v crows - and it looks like you were spot on as the bombers are a better side then the crows, and if the crows bulldozed the cats then why wouldnt the bombers

Lol. It wasn't like the Crows game was a hard hitout though, more like a walk in the park. Geelong's ins, Essendon's outs, everything aligned for a Cats win. I just don't get it.