AFL round 4 ?

[RoosterMarty]

I've on Sydney -12.5 so far, on early before the line increases.

$15 @ 1.92

[mighty_tiger_79]

via the ozbet newsletter

West Coast v Essendon
Friday 6.40pm, Subiaco, Ch 7 8.30pm

Last time: West Coast 14.11 (95) bt Essendon 10.8 (68) at Subiaco Oval, Round 18, 2009

The time has come to stand up. And that is a remark not just aimed at West Coast.

Yes, the Eagles occupy a place in the bottom half of the ladder following three defeats and are now facing the very real prospect of missing finals for the third season in succession under John Worsfold. But Essendon have an alarming record at Subiaco Oval in recent times and need to correct that to fully capitalise on last Saturday night's crucial win over Carlton at the MCG.

It's fair to suggest this contest doesn't have the same appeal as last Friday night's showdown between St Kilda and Collingwood and we can only hope the clanger count doesn't escalate to a level where it ruins an important Friday night fixture.

The Eagles butchered the footy once more at crucial times and in areas that good sides don't against North Melbourne, consigning them to another defeat. The midfield didn't have a handle on Brent Harvey and despite Mark LeCras' five goals and Matt Priddis working gallantly, the number of contributors was well down on Worsfold would have expected.

The Bombers introduced some new faces, including Claremont teenager Travis Colyer, against Carlton and their leg speed was telling in the win. Essendon flagged earlier in the week their intention to select a slick side for Subiaco, but the balance must be right.

Too often, Essendon don't defend with the same gusto as they do when running forward and such a flaw results in opposition sides scoring a string of unanswered goals.

West Coast don't have a forward line that strikes fear into the heart of rivals, but they are a hard nut to crack on home soil and for that reason, it is hard to select them to lose the first four of 2010.

VERDICT: West Coast by 13 points.

Result
West Coast Essendon
$1.57 $2.37



North Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday 12.10pm, Etihad Stadium, Live Fox 1

Last time: Sydney 15.10 (100) bt North Melbourne 13.7 (85) at SCG, Round 14, 2009

The eyes of the football world were on Etihad Stadium last weekend when North Melbourne hosted West Coast.

How would the Kangaroos, a week after being absolutely flogged by St Kilda, respond? From the outset, it was obvious they would be winning as champion captain Brent Harvey enjoyed operating with a 40-foot leg-rope against a disappointing Eagles on-ball department.

The challenge for Brad Scott's young side is to back that performance up. It will be easier said than done given Sydney arrived in town after another quality display, this time against Richmond. The Swans have followed the close loss to St Kilda in round one with emphatic victories over Adelaide and the Tigers and look very much like a side en route to a finals berth.

Daniel Bradshaw kicked four goals against Richmond as he dined out on a midfield that was well on top from the get-go, while the forward line might have a different look than the Swans teams that were strutting their stuff at the MCG in late September only a few years ago, but is extremely effective, nonetheless.

It will test the young North defence, which was assisted last weekend by the use of Daniel Wells as a rebounding defender. His precise disposal was important for the Kangaroos, as was the ruck work of Hamish McIntosh, who will be tested by the combination of Mark Seaby and Shane Mumford.

The Swans boast several new faces, with Seaby and Ben McGlynn being particularly impressive, but the old names such as Kirk, Bolton (x2), Malceski, O'Keefe, McVeigh and co. still have an enormous influence each week.

It is their experience that is likely to overwhelm the Kangaroos

VERDICT: Sydney by 21 points.

Result
North Melbourne Sydney
$2.50 $1.52
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

Adelaide v Carlton
Saturday 1.10pm, AAMI Stadium, Live Ch 10

Last time: Adelaide 27.14 (176) bt Carlton 16.8 (104) at Etihad Stadium, Round 22, 2009

If Adelaide's injury curse doesn't cease soon, the Crows might very well struggle to field a fit 22.

Their dwindling stocks took another massive hit at the MCG last Sunday when a host of stars succumbed and in an indication of their plight, Adelaide's official injury list this week had 14 players listed from a test through to out for the season.

Such misfortune makes it extremely difficult for Neil Craig as he encounters the toughest season of his coaching career. He must now come up with a game plan that will handle a Carlton side, boosted by the return of champion captain Chris Judd, in a game that could tell us a fair bit about where the respective sides are at.

Try as they might, the Blues don't have a forward structure that resembles anything potent following the departure of Brendan Fevola to Brisbane and the skill level is suspect, also. Defensively, they are still lacking that power backman capable of nullifying the big boys.

One of those would have been Kurt Tippett this weekend, but he injured an ankle in the shock loss to Melbourne and will be sidelined for some weeks. The Crows were woeful in front of goals against the Demons and it is hard to see how they can muster a competitive total six days later.

Combine that with a Carlton side with its season on the line and the belief levels that will be soaring due to the presence of Judd and a match that tipsters would have pencilled in as a gimme for the home team back in March, now needs some serious thought.

VERDICT: Carlton by 19 points.

Result
Adelaide Carlton
$1.93 $1.84
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

Collingwood v Hawthorn
Saturday 5.10pm, MCG, Ch 10 6.30pm

Last time: Hawthorn 18.13 (121) bt Collingwood 11.10 (76) at MCG, Round 16, 2009

After missing the finals in 2009, many were very interested to see how Hawthorn would respond this season.

If the opening three weeks are any guide, the hunger and commitment Alastair Clarkson's side showed when winning the 2008 grand final, has been rediscovered. A solid win over Melbourne in round one was followed with gutsy efforts against Geelong and the Western Bulldogs.

Sadly though, those efforts have been in vain with the Cats and Bulldogs wearing down the Hawks, who are clearly battling in the ruck department in being able to only call on Brent Renouf. And if that wasn't a serious enough concern for Clarkson, he must now face up against a snarling Collingwood without brilliant full-forward Lance Franklin, who was suspended for a week at the tribunal.

Franklin and Jarryd Roughead have destroyed the Magpies on more than one occasion and with no Franklin, expect the Magpies defence to surround Roughead and make the Hawks find alternative avenues to goal.

The Magpies didn't score a goal against St Kilda for more than two quarters last Friday night in a game when Mick Malthouse lost the plot and the after-effects of such a disappointing loss may not be revealed for some time.

Can Collingwood get their head around how they were broken down by a broken down opposition? They need more from their small forwards and should be able to call on the benefit of an extra couple of days rest given the Hawks waged their war against the Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon.

Malthouse loves the world being against him and he has got that this week.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 31 points.

Result
Collingwood Hawthorn
$1.59 $2.32
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

Brisbane v West Bulldogs
Saturday 5.10pm, GABBA, Live Fox 1

Last time: Western Bulldogs 16.11 (107) bt Brisbane 8.8 (56) at MCG, Second Semi-Final, 2009

Power v speed. That is one way to describe what awaits those tuning in to watch this contest at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Can the Jonathan Brown-Brendan Fevola show extend for another week and overwhelm a fleet-footed Bulldogs line-up or will the run and stun brand of football implemented by Rodney Eade's men snare another rival.

Brown is in career-best form at present and along with his new forward partner, has contributed more than half of Brisbane's goals this season. It is a dangerous statistic for Eade, but just might prove the Lions Achilles heel down the track if the workload isn't spread more evenly and an injury, or setback of some kind, occurs to one of the two.

The Bulldogs had several opportunities to flick off Hawthorn's switch during the third quarter last Sunday, but were wasteful in front of goal. Barry Hall came to the party late and finished with six as the Dogs ran away in the last term. The loss of Jason Akermanis with a hamstring injury and Liam Picken (ankle) upsets the balance of Eade's side, but Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen are running nicely.

The same can't be said for Simon Black, who battled calf tightness in the win over Port Adelaide. His absence allowed several of the team's younger players to step up and they did so with glee, with Justin Sherman celebrating his 100th in style.

The Lions win over the Power was soured by the loss of Mitch Clark and Ashley McGrath through suspension -- penalties which are likely to be felt in what is arguably the match-of-the-round.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 12 points.

Result
Brisbane West Bulldogs
$1.97 $1.81
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

Richmond v Melbourne
Sunday 11.10am, MCG, Live Fox 1

Last time: Richmond 12.14 (86) bt Melbourne 12.10 (82) at MCG, Round 18, 2009

If Richmond supporters thought it couldn't get any worse, they were sadly mistaken.

Not content with getting hammered on field by Sydney last Saturday night, Daniel Connors got hammered off it, with his alcohol-fuelled antics at the team's hotel earning him a black eye from Ben Cousins and an eight-week suspension by the club. For his part, Cousins copped a week, as did Luke McGuane and Dean Polo.

Their absence leaves an impotent football team extremely vulnerable for a match many viewed as winnable if everything went right. The optimism is now all with Melbourne, who in a terrific sign for the future, followed up their brave effort against Collingwood with a quality defensive performance to take down Adelaide.

If Dean Bailey's young charges can remain switched on this weekend and get the points in a match they are expected to win, they will be in the top eight after the first month of the season. It would be quite a turnaround.

The spread of contributors for Melbourne over the last fortnight has been heartening for coach Dean Bailey, who has pumped the games into the kids in the hope he can fast-track their development. Draftees Tom Scully and Jack Trengove are going well, Jack Grimes looks a player, Jamie Bennell is growing in confidence and the input of Aaron Davey, James McDonald and Brad Green can't be understated.

Richmond, on the other hand, are rudderless and devoid of any confidence. It is really hard to see the upside coach Damian Hardwick believes is around the corner.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 43 points.

Result
Richmond Melbourne
$3.60 $1.28
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

Geelong v Port Adelaide
Sunday 12.10pm, Skilled Stadium, Fox 1 5.30pm

Last time: Geelong 18.14 (122) bt Port Adelaide 13.10 (88) at Skilled Stadium, Round 13, 2009

When Geelong skipped out to a 21-point lead against Fremantle in the third quarter last Sunday afternoon, it appeared the premiers would march to another victory.

And while the Cats would be denied success by an impressive, resurgent Fremantle outfit, Mark Thompson's men lost no admirers. Geelong hit town minus Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney and Matthew Scarlett and had to do battle in warm conditions only six days after working overtime to bring down Hawthorn under a baking Melbourne sun.

They now return to Skilled Stadium to host Port Adelaide in a match where the premiership flag and retired captain Tom Harley are expected to be on display, not to mention Mooney, Scarlett and Ottens.

It can't be described as an ambush if you know what is coming up, but Port Adelaide should be bracing themselves for an April storm. The Power were eclipsed by Brisbane when it mattered most. Forget they were able to kick late goals and add a semblance of respectability to the final total.

Coach Mark Williams must find a way for his midfield to get first hands on the ball, or at worst, nullify the effectiveness of Geelong's blue-chip running division because the defence is still only modest, despite the best efforts of Nathan Krakouer, Alipate Carlile and Troy Chaplin.

The ability of Geelong to take the ball from end to end at sages last Sunday against Fremantle was breathtaking, as were the individual acts of brilliance from Gary Ablett.

The Cats destroyed Port in the 2007 grand final and while the margin in this match is unlikely to resemble that, the dominance the home team looks like having in general play, may just.

VERDICT: Geelong by 68 points.

Result
Geelong Port Adelaide
$1.12 $6.00
* Market information correct at time of sending. ALL BETTING OPTIONS

St Kilda v Fremantle
Sunday 2.40pm, Etihad Stadium, Live Fox/Ch 7

Last time: St Kilda 17.9 (111) bt Fremantle 4.4 (28) at Etihad Stadium, Round 4, 2009

In all due respect to what Fremantle has achieved thus far, only the most ardent Dockers supporter (perhaps, believer) could have forecast Mark Harvey's men would have been 3-0 and venturing to Etihad Stadium for a top-of-the-table showdown with St Kilda.

But that is what awaits the Dockers after their excellent come-from-behind success against Geelong last Sunday, a result which was heavily influenced by the undeniable brilliance of Matthew Pavlich.

Time and time again, the multiple All-Australian and greatest player in Dockers history showed just why he is held in such high regard. That performance will stand the test of time and be one of the better individual games we will see in 2010.

And talking of impressive, you couldn't help but admire the resilience and sheer courage of St Kilda last Friday night. Nick Riewoldt's hamstring was gone, as were the lights inside Sam Fisher's head, while Lenny Hayes' looked like a war casualty.

If ever there was a time for the Saints to say enough is enough, it would have been at Etihad Stadium. Instead, the workload was spread, the win was achieved and the legend grew.

The challenge for Ross Lyon's men is to avoid a letdown and show the football world that there is life after Riewoldt. Michael Gardiner shapes as a forward option in the absence of Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke, who has a week's suspension to serve, as does Brendon Goddard, who is a class act wherever he is used.

Pavlich pushed up the ground at crucial times against Geelong and how he is used by Harvey will be interesting, as is the plans that Lyon will use to nullify his influence.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 21 points.

Result
St Kilda Fremantle
$1.34 $3.25

[RoosterMarty]

I love having a punt on Friday night footy but they have served up a pretty ordinary game tonight both football wise and betting wise.

[gadj1976]

I've got money on WCE and Ess 151-160 points, paying $9.

[Dogmatic]

I've got money on WCE and Ess 151-160 points, paying $9.

Looks sick at half time.

[Punk Rooster]

Half Time
1 unit Ess (+44.5) @ $1.88

trying to salvage original stake- I don't believe the WCE are that good a side, or can sustain that effort.

[Spearhead]

On Sportsbet I have Mark Lecras to be highest goalscorer for round (from limited pool), only $1 @ $17 but I like what I see so far!!

[Punk Rooster]

On Sportsbet I have Mark Lecras to be highest goalscorer for round (from limited pool), only $1 @ $17 but I like what I see so far!!

your bet is looking better than mine!
just want the Dons to reel the margin back into something more repectable.
2 bad teams playing (?) football here...

[gadj1976]

I've got money on WCE and Ess 151-160 points, paying $9.

Looks sick at half time.

starting to look ok Dogmatic, 138 points 5 mins into the last.

[gadj1976]

Essendon are killing me, 3 points in a row, 141 points 9 mins into the last.

I put my $40 free bet on this, COME ON SOMEONE - 20 more points!!!!

[gadj1976]

148

12 mins in

[gadj1976]

155!

[Punk Rooster]

Essendon are killing me, 3 points in a row, 141 points 9 mins into the last.

I put my $40 free bet on this, COME ON SOMEONE - 20 more points!!!!

if Essendon could do something besides bomb it in long to no-one, they might be a chance

[gadj1976]

161!!!!! BLOW THE SIREN!!!

[Punk Rooster]

161!!!!! BLOW THE SIREN!!!

now 167

[gadj1976]

161!!!!! BLOW THE SIREN!!!

now 167

BLOW THE **** SIREN YA PACK OF BARSTEDS

[gadj1976]

******* mob of ******* ****, i ******* hate ******* essendon the ****

[Punk Rooster]

Half Time
1 unit Ess (+44.5) @ $1.88

trying to salvage original stake- I don't believe the WCE are that good a side, or can sustain that effort.

Ess blew out to +52.5, & came in as far as +36.5- offering a 16 point double playfor those game enough.
Was waiting (hoping) for a few Ess goals, to get an Eagles line of -20.5... regardless, live market closed

[Punk Rooster]

Half Time
1 unit Ess (+44.5) @ $1.88

trying to salvage original stake- I don't believe the WCE are that good a side, or can sustain that effort.

Ess with junk-time goals, reducing my loss from 1 unit, to .12

[Punk Rooster]

1 unit Syd 40+ @ $4.25
2 units Syd 25+ @ $2.60
3 units Syd 15.5 @ $2.00

Sydneys defence have restricted their opponents to low scores, whilst kicking enough themselves.