Dutchy'$ Soccer System

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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Mop Up » Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:17 am

Oaksnaf wrote:
Mop Up wrote:Was just looking over the thread Dutchy! Was thinking to myself if you took the under in ADL games surely you would come up ahead with their dour style. Looked up the results and their games had
0 Goals - Once
1 Goals - 4 times
2 Goals - 7 times
3+ Goals - 3 times

Whats the standard line... 2.5 or is it more like 2 in adelaide games
If it was 2.5 you'd be laughing

That is such a small small sample. But you have the right idea.


True, but in the A-League alot of teams are shadows of themselves from previous years. I think sometimes you can be sucked into taking too big a sample for such things. Why look at stats from 2-3 yrs ago when its a completely diff team etc.....

But yes Dutchy, good to get some talk going, gives me something to read/do in my hour long lunch break ;) will be interested to see how this strategy progresses... if the betting agencies are slack in their lines and its generally 2.5 you could adjust your strategy for what 2 teams are playing.... get a good stats line on each team, etc.... see how work is next few days.. mite have a look and a dabble
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:The system is a martingdale system with small stakes, just to grind out a profit at the end of the season, Im pretty new to soccer betting so stil learning over the journey

Love the feedback though, always great to discuss strategies etc, should be much more of it on here


Interesting! Speaking of a Martingdale system, do you believe it works over time in a sporting environment? Given Mop Up's stats, betting 2.5 overs on ADL, you'd have lost 11 and won 3 and using a Martingdale, been in front. However, what happens if you'd lost 10 times straight?

Do you start with a kitty small enough to continue doubling up? Do you just blindly double up on an over 2.5 when ADL plays at Hindy, especially after say 9 straight system losses and we're up against a side that has a stingy defence?

Sorry for all the q's, just interested.
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:00 pm

I dont use a blind martingdale system on the one team in soccer (i do in NBA) in the AL I use it around the league as most games go over, has been dissappointing so far but confident over time it will be good.

I aloso dont double up all the time, sometimes I do it just to get my stakes invested back
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:05 pm

Dutchy wrote:I dont use a blind martingdale system on the one team in soccer (i do in NBA) in the AL I use it around the league as most games go over, has been dissappointing so far but confident over time it will be good.

I aloso dont double up all the time, sometimes I do it just to get my stakes invested back


Ahh, OK. But, if you don't always double up on losses though, you'd always finish with a loss though?
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:07 pm

devilsadvocate wrote:
Dutchy wrote:I dont use a blind martingdale system on the one team in soccer (i do in NBA) in the AL I use it around the league as most games go over, has been dissappointing so far but confident over time it will be good.

I aloso dont double up all the time, sometimes I do it just to get my stakes invested back


Ahh, OK. But, if you don't always double up on losses though, you'd always finish with a loss though?


No....for example in the NBA at the moment GSW have given me a $220 debt, so today I didnt want to bet that much to clear it so I bet $100 on them @ $1.91 (line) they won so my debt is now $130, Ill look to clear teh debt in the next bet, being a long season I can afford to do it....basically i chase the debt all season if need be until they are in profit
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:18 pm

Dutchy wrote:
devilsadvocate wrote:
Dutchy wrote:I dont use a blind martingdale system on the one team in soccer (i do in NBA) in the AL I use it around the league as most games go over, has been dissappointing so far but confident over time it will be good.

I aloso dont double up all the time, sometimes I do it just to get my stakes invested back


Ahh, OK. But, if you don't always double up on losses though, you'd always finish with a loss though?


No....for example in the NBA at the moment GSW have given me a $220 debt, so today I didnt want to bet that much to clear it so I bet $100 on them @ $1.91 (line) they won so my debt is now $130, Ill look to clear teh debt in the next bet, being a long season I can afford to do it....basically i chase the debt all season if need be until they are in profit


To be honest, that kicks the pants off the Martingdale system. Sort of like chip stack management in poker. 'As long as you have a chip and a chair'.

While pissed in spain I stupidly went to the cas and went a blind MD system on black at the roulette wheel starting with 20euros. I picked it up after 4 straight reds. After 3 more reds and a 0, I was shitting it and out of cash. the missus wanted to rip my nuts off when I took another 300 euros out to place on black to try to cover the loss. Fortunately for me, black came up. Not having the balls to continue I pulled back and had a smaller bet on black coming up again which it did and I walked out on a small gain. That was the last time I used MD, although I guess the lesson is to start small and manage your pile.
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Mop Up » Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:09 pm

Where you get ya over/under odds Dutchy?? I been looking everywhere but none of the agencies I can find offer it
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:55 pm

Mop Up wrote:Where you get ya over/under odds Dutchy?? I been looking everywhere but none of the agencies I can find offer it


Almost every agency has at least under/over 2.5....
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Fri Nov 27, 2009 5:55 pm

CCM Win
$100 @ $2.00
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Fri Nov 27, 2009 7:22 pm

Dutchy wrote:CCM Win
$100 @ $2.00


I'm on this too Dutchy. CCM unbeaten at home. Perth are a bit dodgy on the road.

$20 @ $1.93 (5 mins late on getting $2 :evil: )
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:30 pm

devilsadvocate wrote:
Dutchy wrote:CCM Win
$100 @ $2.00


I'm on this too Dutchy. CCM unbeaten at home. Perth are a bit dodgy on the road.

$20 @ $1.93 (5 mins late on getting $2 :evil: )


0 - 0 ft.

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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Fri Nov 27, 2009 9:36 pm

CCM just thought it would happen tonight after 2 cracking wins, should have let it go..
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Sun Nov 29, 2009 5:54 pm

QLD/Well Over 2.5
$125 @ $2.22
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Johno6 » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:51 pm

well done Dutchy..

won the bet with time to sit back and enjoy the rest of teh half..
R.I.P Mum 28/02/12



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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Thu Dec 03, 2009 5:48 pm

ADL/GC Over 2.5
$100 @ $2.28 :(

MV/QR Over 2.5
$125 @ $2.15 :(

CCM Win
$100 @ $2.00 :(

QLD/Well Over 2.5
$125 @ $2.22 :D

AL -$189.30
EPL +$9.60
Other -$225
TOTAL -$404.70
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:54 pm

Crashing your thread again this week Dutchy.

Gone for a multi:

ADL/NWC Under 2.5 - The reds and the jets have the fewest goals scored for so far this season.
WEL/MEL Over 2.5 - Melbourne are the highest scoring side in the comp, while Wellington are playing to equal the longest home winning streak in the comp. Both sides have scored plenty of goals this season.

$10 @ $3.04
Last edited by devilsadvocate on Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Fri Dec 04, 2009 4:40 pm

good luck, did you look at the stats for goals against NEW and ADL?
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby devilsadvocate » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:02 pm

Dutchy wrote:good luck, did you look at the stats for goals against NEW and ADL?


I did, and it's not the prettiest picture, but I'm banking on both strikeforces continuing to be rubbish.
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:08 pm

I think I'll just back the reds to win. Good luck
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Re: Dutchy'$ Soccer System

Postby Dutchy » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:12 pm

Adelaide win
$125 @ $2.22
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