AFL round 14

[mighty_tiger_79]

ATS = line betting
for exampple
geelong -9.5 - the cats need to win by 10 or more to collect
st kilda +9.5 the saints can lose by 9 and you still collect

[know all]

Ok cheers for that i guessed it had something to do with points in,just didnt no for sure

[WestIndiesWonder24]

I am heading over to melbourne for the Ess v Coll clash also seeing the hawks bulldogs and StK v Geelong blockbuster>>>

Anyone got any hunches or good tips for these games?????

[Dutchy]

I am heading over to melbourne for the Ess v Coll clash also seeing the hawks bulldogs and StK v Geelong blockbuster>>>

Anyone got any hunches or good tips for these games?????

Ill post my big footy preview here tomorrow but I like

Essendon +12.5
Hawks +17.5
Saints +12.5

[Q.]

Where did you get Saints +12.5?

[Dutchy]

Where did you get Saints +12.5?

Apologies +10.5

[Q.]

No wuckers, just letting ya know I spotted Saints +11.5 @ $1.90 in pUnitab this arvo.

[Dutchy]

No wuckers, just letting ya know I spotted Saints +11.5 @ $1.90 in pUnitab this arvo.

ahh nice, BF also have a +11.5 market, just need liqudity

[Dirko]

Gonna smack some on Freo. They've beaten Carlton 10 out of the last 11.
In Perth no Pavlich means some toss bag will step up and kick a bag....

[Pigskin10]

3 Units on Essendon 40+ @ 11.0

Cheers

[Q.]

3 Units on Essendon 40+ @ 11.0

Cheers

WTF? Did you just 'do a Grub'?

[another grub]

I am not alone

[Dutchy]

Blockbuster weekend is upon us and some big games and some open markets which is much different to last weeks strong favourites. Collingwood and Essendon open up the round with both teams full of confidence, Collingwood come into this game of a 6 day break while th Bombers have had the full week while bBoth teams have pretty good injury lists. The suspension of McVeigh is an interesting one but one that should bind the group together as no one gets a free ride. Collingwood are yet to beat a top 8 team at the MCG this season and have lately been preying on some low hanging fruit, they have been doing it well granted but suspect they will face a Essendon team ready to fully test them tomorrow night. Essendon may have been a little fortunate to have beaten Collingwood on ANZAC Day but looking closer they had the same scoring shots and had 4 more Inside 50's. Essendon have won all 4 of their games at the G this year and are 5-3 ATS when going in as underdogs for the season. Catching +12.5 points here is good enough for me to have a nice wager on the Bombers.

Brisbane and Port go at it at AAMI, Id love to punt on the Power here but coming off a 6 day break plus travel with Brisbane have a nice 7 day break (and play on Saturday for every game from here on in for the rest of the year!) and Brisbane being in some real nice from I just cant. Brisbane have the socring power and the midfield, we all know that, but looking at their stats over the past 8 weeks they are conceeding on everage only 77 points per game (AFL Average 92). Then look at Port in the same period and they are conceeding on average 108 ppg. Brisbane's injury list is starting to reduce nicely while Port have some of their prime movers still out, a no bet here but a Brisbane victory wouldnt not suprise after looking at the stats.

Melbourne/WCE - urrhhhh! Nup, no, cant do it.....ill stay out...NO BET

Bullies and Hawks go at it Sat night at ES, this is only the 3rd trip to ES for the Hawks this year. Bullies have a 6 day break while Hawks 7 but coming back from Perth. Bullies were maybe a bit lucky last week with only accurate kicking giving them the win. Im tempted to take a punt on the Hawks with 3 goals in here for a small stake, think the odds for the Hawks may have over corrected a tad here. No great science to this selection but have a gut feel the Hawks can keep this close. Hawks +17.5 will do me for a small stake.

Adelaide and Richmond meet on the neutral Gold Coast vanue. Both travel but Adelaide have the one days extra break in this one. Adelaide are really building and Richmond are just being Richmond. 23 point start here isnt enough I feel for an Adelaide team that will be looking for a kill, they have the day break here and are much better than a 4 goal better side than the Tigers. Adelaide -23.5 and on the ML for multis certainly looks a sound bet.

Sydney come home to face the Roos coming off 4 losses to some reasonable teams and havent played at the SCG since Round 9. Remarkably this is only the 2nd trip out of Melbourne for the Roos this year. I quite like this scenario and the Roos probably need to get away as a group since the coaching changes. The Roos get nearly 4 goals in here on the small SCG without Barry Hall and I quite like it for a small Stake the Roos +23.5 will do me.

The big game eh? Looks an amazing match up on Paper, looking at the stats its quite clear Geelong are the attacking team with more options going forward but the Saints have it all over the Cats in the defensive stakes, they are averaging on 38 Inside 50's conceeded this season which is amazing (Geelong 44) and only average 3 less Inside 50's on the offence. Saints are only conceeding 59 points per game on average, from my observations this isnt they defence its their defensive skills up the ground. IF they can do this to the Cats they are an undeniable chance in this clash. Cats have been a bit off the boil if you can say that, losing 4 of their last 5 games ATS, and in the last five games they have averaged 3 more scoring shots conceeded and are scoring 5 less points per game than the first 8 games of the season. Not much but there is a significant drop off on all their early season stats. The Saints havent had this drop over the past month. We know the Saints play ES well, Geelong have only played there twice this year, an easy win against the Bombers and that close win against the Bullies which they should have lost. This will be a great tussle but I really think the Saints have the goods here to get the win. A part of me also thinks that the cats have been wound back a tad to try and peak for September, they know a top 2 spot is certain and it aint going to make any difference which spot your in. It wouldnt suprise me one bit if they have been putting extra work into their legs over the past 2-3 weeks. Saints +10.5 in what promises to be a close game seems generous to me and Ill be on it

Carlton come into their clash with Freo off a 14 day break before the Bombers game and now a 9 day break into this game , this break must help any niggles they have had, and a trip away together is probably what the club needs. They have the motivation of Freo knocking them over up on the Gold Coast earlier in the year also. I like Cartlon to get the job done here with a superior midfield and with Freo struggling with injuries and suspension of key experienced players I just cant see who is going to win this for them. Ill probably just take the Blues at the Moneyline with a multi Adelaide to get around the evens.

Suggested Bets
Essendon Line
Adelaide Line
Hawks Line
Roos Line
Saints Line
Blues/Crows ML Multi

Good luck

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Interesting stat on ''League Teams '' last night.
The top 5 have won 25 of their last 26 games.

[another grub]

Is this value lads???? St Kilda up by 17 at half time. Geel 2 inj players. St Kilda 40+ is paying $10

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Backed the far ken draw. Jesus.

[gadj1976]

The only bet I had this week was on betfair. I spotted that North were 5.10 greater than 15.5pts or 3.3 for either side less than 15.5pts. Pretty happy Syd only won by 15 in the end.

Any reason why Sportsbet have ditched the Tri-bet? That tends to be my favourite. I saw it for one game last week but didn't see any this week (didn't look overly hard I must say).

[Dutchy]

pretty sure its still offered Gadj....Early in the last term Saints were being traded at $1.04/$1.05, so could have got 20/1 the Cats by laying the Saints!

I think my preview was pretty spot on - Defence beats Offence

[mighty_tiger_79]

hopefully the win by the saints will shorten them in the premiership market and the cats can drift

have taped the game and will watch it tomorrow

[Q.]

Thankyou Sainters