OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

And there are tracks where JOE does quite well. Ballarat is not one of them. Only 25% of favs win there or something. This can give you greater confidence betting outside favourites.

I keep note of betting trends in form - and spikes and drops in wagering - trying to work out what JOE reacts too and where and why the money is coming.

For instance:
L3 runs
L/S Win
BOX
Trainer
Grade
S/R
Placing behind FAST TIME

I am slowly finding that (I don't have the data to confirm though) that JOE creates unders on a runner who runs a faster 2nd place than they do a win time. Especially if they ran a FAST placing last start they are almost always heavily backed the following week (excluding heats / finals).

I call this the DRAGGED IN situation. Punters are dragged into thinking this runner is better than what it actually is. And if you finish 10L behind a 23.80 Bendigo time. Then you still run a 24.30 2nd placing. If your drawn a BOX too, this nearly puts this runner into favourtism. Even though they might have a best win time of 24.55. These are key factors for me finding out a false favourite and knowing how to wager around them.

[mighty_tiger_79]

yeah a Dragged In factor could include myself in that department at times depending on if there is a drop in grade etc

[stampy]

wassat? i thought i am reasonably cluey but wtf!!!!!!!???? lol

[Oaksnaf]

Haha stampy I don't know much either when compared to others. But what I do know has helped me wager better than what I was last year so at least I am learning from the right people.

[Oaksnaf]

The basic start would be to keep a record of all your bets from the type of bet to the sport you bet on. From there you can work out an idea on what you bet on the most in terms of the type of events and then you can see what events your highest wagers go on. It gives you a basic idea of what kind of punter you are.

Forget about the profit and loss for now. Just concentrate on what areas you bet on. And then justify it.

If you are interested in learning some self control then keeping track of your bets is a good eye opener.



I will try and keep up to date on what I am betting on and why just to see if it interests anyone.

[Oaksnaf]

BENDIGO

RACE 5

8 SUPER CALIBER $3.37
7 CLAYOQUOT $5.71
6 PRINCE VALIANT $7.05
5 LUMENS OF LIGHT $7.83
10 CLOVALLEY WES $9.67
1 LIKE FINE WINE $10.74
4 MADAS SUZIE $16.37

An interesting race for mine. #1 Leads and fades, can weaken off a little. #6,7,8 are all more suitable outwide but the main pace to lead comes from #8.

#10 will appreciate the rails run and #5 will too with #4 hit/miss/fade and #1 fading too. Gives good ability to finish over the top.

[Oaksnaf]

BANK $1,505

I know that they will be rating #8 extremely well in this race. Could even be as much as $2.50. The L/S win of #6 will bring it into the market quite well also. This will leave me with OVERLAYS on #5,7. Probably a big overaly on #7 and a moderate one on #5.

The public will also invest on #1 to place here given the speed and the box at this distance. They will be ignoring #10 who I find is drawn quite well.

#5 WIN $26
#7 WIN $35

8-1,5,6,7,10-1,5,6,7,10 $60

5,6,7-5,6,7,8-1,5,6,7,8,10 $25

A more simpler betting race in this one.

[Oaksnaf]

The runner that I could have incorrectly handicapped is #4 MADAS SUZIE. This is the runner next backed after #8 early on in the market.

I will have to make an additional bet:

4-F-F $15

8-4-F $25

It is the only other runner wanted after initial bets. This is normally a good indication of track bets for mine.

[Oaksnaf]

BANK $1349

WARRAGUL

RACE 1

8 THUNDEROUS CHEER $3.43
5 ATEHNA GODDESS $4.71
6 PRINCE WASABI $5.81
4 UNCLE MORE $7.17
7 BLACK EYED PAPA $12.14
1 PRINCESS KATIE $22.85
3 PRINCESS TIF $28.21
2 BRANDYS PUZZLE $43.00

The consistency from #8 and box draw will be an advantage. #5 will improve with early pace and #6 is apparently the better one in the litter. #4 L2 has imp. City run ok. Warragul will suit.

The TOP 4 have it between them for mine.

RACE 2

7 GRACIES GIFT $3.34
3 EL GARI $5.09
8 MILLA MAGIC $6.28
2 PARKFIELD CHAMP $7.76
5 JACQUIE WHO $10.64
10 KOOCHIE KOO $16.22
1 BETTER NOT DOUBT $27.47
4 CLOHS MATE $41.87

An interesting race here. Anything JOE backs into $3 will not be worth touching. I am thinking that #2 may present plenty of value and #5 being the unders.

There are strong runners in this race, moreso than pacey ones. This will give #8 a much better chance in the race and also #2.

RACE 3

8 IDLE WAYS $3.69
3 SMASH IT $4.56
4 AMSONA BELLA $6.94
5 RISOTTO $8.57
7 RAKURA $9.52
1 ELLIES PORTRAIT $13.07
6 HILL BILLY THYME $24.58
2 HIGH DRAMA $37.47

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 4

9 TOP REALITY $3.30
6 BIG MAC MIKADO $5.03
8 WILLY MAKE IT $6.21
4 ALAN WAY $8.52
10 BURNSYS BRUISER $10.52
1 LIL MISS TENBY $14.43
7 KABOOM MAXIMUS $17.81

Hard to separate the placings here.

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 5

5 KAPALOS $3.59
3 DEANO GIRL $4.92
1 SUNDAE SMASHER $6.08
8 HORIZON BOY $6.76
7 BELLA MIKADO $10.30
2 BORDERLANDS $17.44
4 LUCKNOW HILTON $29.53
6 MISS JENNY $55.56

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 6

3 COSMIC AFFAIR $3.64
5 ULTRA SMOKEY $4.04
4 TOMBSTONE $7.61
7 MASTER MIKE $9.40
6 ASHTON CAYA $10.44
8 MARRY RICH $15.91
1 KINETIC BOOST $17.68
2 FAWN CHOW $41.07

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 7

5 TUBS ROCKET $3.21
7 MASTER OLLIE $4.89
4 DAINTREE ARCADE $5.44
3 GALOS GOLD $8.29
8 SUPER FLY $14.03
1 DA CARTEL $17.32
6 BLONDY DRAMA $19.25

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 8
1 MAKE DO $3.19
5 MY SENORITA $6.00
3 FAST AS ESCARGOT $6.67
2 DEMON BOMBER $8.23
8 ROYAL COLOUR $11.29
4 SISCO RETURN $15.49
6 OILY $17.22
7 TEENAS PLANE $26.24

Am willing to bet really wide in this race. Can see the TOP 7 all having a chance of running inside the TOP 3. Bet overlay in exotics and bet wide behind #1.



QUADDIE: 1,3,5,8 / 3,4,5,6,7 / 4,5,7 / 1

[Q.]

Going to Angle Park tonight, anything to keep an eye on?

[stampy]

stray dogs?

[Groover]

Going to Angle Park tonight, anything to keep an eye on?

We have a couple of chances
R1 #4 Lango, ran a good 3rd last week and meets similar opposition, should be in the finish

R8 #6 Spiral Bound, Will struggle in this event IMO

R9 #2 Miss Woods, box draw really helps her in this race, should sit off the pace just behind the 4, last time they met she was able to run it down, hopefully there is a bit more rain about and then id say she will salute.

R9 #5 Shady Tree, Is better than form reads and i would be putting him in the back end of the exotics.

My tips for the night
R1-4
R2-6
R3-3
R4-7
R5-5
R6-1
R7-6
R8-3
R9-2
R10-6
R11-1

[Groover]

Going to Angle Park tonight, anything to keep an eye on?

We have a couple of chances
R1 #4 Lango, ran a good 3rd last week and meets similar opposition, should be in the finish

R8 #6 Spiral Bound, Will struggle in this event IMO

R9 #2 Miss Woods, box draw really helps her in this race, should sit off the pace just behind the 4, last time they met she was able to run it down, hopefully there is a bit more rain about and then id say she will salute.

R9 #5 Shady Tree, Is better than form reads and i would be putting him in the back end of the exotics.

My tips for the night
R1-4
R2-6
R3-3
R4-7
R5-5
R6-1
R7-6
R8-3
R9-2
R10-6
R11-1

Tipped 4winners 2seconds and 2thirds, hope ya found a few good collects

[Oaksnaf]

Well done groover

[Oaksnaf]

HEALESVILLE

RACE 1

3 SMASH THE CLOCK $4.07
5 SUPERIOR HAILEY $5.02
1 TIME TRAP $5.58
8 BLACK DIDDY $8.51
2 COOL CORNELIUS $10.51
4 KNOCKA MAGIC $16.01
7 IM CONNECTED $17.79
6 MOUYONG BEN $21.96

RACE 2

4 IMA LEGEND $3.04
3 LIKE JAMES $5.72
2 MRS DIRTS $7.06
8 CHUCK PIES $10.76
7 BILLY WHITE WOLF $11.96
6 BLUE ADDISON $13.29
1 BLIND BURRA $18.23
5 BLISTERING MAGIC $20.25

If anything in this race #4 should be too strong and is drawn outside some runners who do not have a great deal of pace. But I think #2 will be the biggest improver.

You need to watch #5 in the market early. Kennel is of a punting kennel and you will know what they think of this runner early in the market.

RACE 3

1 RAMPANT LION $4.02
4 SPEEDY IN OZ $4.96
7 BABY PIE $7.56
8 NASH $8.40
5 SNOW SURFER $10.38
6 DR RUBY $11.53
2 REGAL GLADIATOR $15.82
3 SIR PLEDGE $19.52

#1 RAMPANT LION should be too strong here. Shouldn't be off too much concern if #2,3 head to the rails as they are weak when bumped. #4 will show pace as will #5 making it harder for #6 to come across, who simply must ping - otherwise rearward.

I have both #7,8 jumping better than #6 and moving across to take middle. CRAN 311 runners are yet to crash to the rails here. I think #7 may be overrated but must include.

Value in this race is #5 who has the pace to sneak into a good position.


RACE 4

8 NOT EXPOSED $3.66
2 INCLUSION $4.07
3 HIGH SUMMER $6.20
6 REGAL DIAMONDS $8.50
7 DR MINDY $12.96
1 MAYBE NOW $17.78
4 SIN CARA $21.95
10 YOUNG NORMAN $41.30

#8 wants the fence, but doesn't crash too much across. Will be extremely strong in the finish.

For mine #2 is perfectly drawn, runs straight will move to middle of the track mid-late race and is also strong in the finish. Trialed well here when pup and should have won maiden final when cramped for room box 4 I think. Is the one to watch. DEDES goes well here.

#3 has lots of pace early, probably going to be fading, giving #2 even more room early as #1 will be slow out.

#2 is the key to the race and also if #8 cannot get across, expect it to win. #8 has proven ability here already and is likely to be well backed.

RACE 5

4 PURE PROOF $2.56
8 HORIZON BOY $5.35
2 DR ZSA ZSA $8.16
3 SHOTS $11.19
5 WEALTH $12.43
7 REGAL VILLAIN $17.06
6 IMPERFECTION $26.00
1 JUST CALL ME $32.09

An interesting race in which JOE should be spot on #4 goes straight early and is strong in the finish, gets better track this time around. #8 will be ok out and will move to the middle of the track and also likes to storm home when straightening up. Last 50m is good for this runner. Ignore l/w time. That is the key to punters ignoring this runner and letting #4 jump odds on.

#2 has pace. But fades badly. Was dragged at Sale, but already wanted to stop at the bend. Typically SALE faders, fade more here.

The runner which I will get wrong is #1 JUST CALL ME. Wants to get off the rails here and will miss the kick early. Trainer doesn't go well here either.

ACE 6

7 MISTER MOOMS $3.22
4 PATS DUNROAMING $4.42
3 DARKEN RAHL $6.73
8 CELEBRATION $10.26
5 RED SCAR BOY $11.40
1 MATLOCK $14.08
6 FRAME $26.49
10 HELLO HOTLIPS $49.84

Another interesting race here that could present plenty of value.

#1 wants off the fence
#3 has to ping
#4 will ping and go straight
#5 MAD RAILER - who runs home
#6 wants the rails and MUST ping
#7 PINGS consistently and RAILS
#8 Stuck out wide but is suited there,

#10 NO


This race presents itself that 3,4,5,6,7 all have possible carnage together.

If anything #7 and #4 show too much pace for these and lead all the way together. #8 gets a great cart into the race. #6 she can ping, but there will be much bigger bodies on her inside and with #1 wanting off. Creates havoc

RACE 7

7 CENTRALIAN $3.53
1 STILL WATCH $5.38
2 DEL RIO $6.64
3 IM THE COOLEST $7.38
6 MAYBE CHEAP $11.25
5 TASHELLE LEA $12.50
8 DR SANSCHA $21.17
4 MISS SLATER $35.85

All indications show that #6 is better off to hold the middle of the ground. Begins quite quickly, but last 50m is only query here.

#1 can be an explosive runner. Has had some injuries, but gee she can run.

#2 enjoys here and isn't bothered by having runners close by. If I suspect that #1 misses the kick, DEL RIO will be leading this race along with #7.

RACE 8

1 NORTHERN TROUBLE $3.66
3 RAINBOWS GIFT $4.07
6 CARRAK $6.20
7 TAYLER MINES $11.66
5 WALK DON’T RUN $12.96
4 DOT MAN $14.40
8 NORTHERN GUNNA $17.78
9 PURE DECEPTION $33.45

#1 she loves the rail. Absolutely loves it. Improves 3-5L on the rail. She also loves it here. Is among stiff competition in #3 who might want to get off the track a little early and then sweep back. Basically, if no-one can cross Northern Trouble. She should win.

#7 can be value has been trialing well up straights. First run here was disappointing I must say. But can improve given that #6 will ping, #5 slow out, #4 moderate, #3 moderate and wanting wide and #1 will rail madly.

RACE 9

1 KOOBLA KAHN $4.15
4 VALIANT CRUSADE $4.61
5 WINNERS CIRCLE $5.69
8 RUTHLESS STAGGER $6.33
3 UNO MORDI $9.64
7 KERCEM $18.14
6 SMOOTH PLEDGE $30.72
10 MISS JENNY $57.81

Surely the TOP 5 fill the exotics in this race. There is a big difference in form between those 5 and the other 3. Makes exotic betting a little better. BUT #1 will provide all the value and I am willing to have on top as #4 may want off, #5 will want rails. #8 will still be green and still moves around a lot in the running.

#1 will hold the rails, will be strong in the finish and will be $10.

RACE 10

2 BACARDO $2.85
1 DR GEE GEE $5.36
4 DEVILS OWN $6.62
7 MASTER OLLIE $10.09
6 JAY JAY MIKADO $11.21
3 DR CHANTELLE $17.09
8 ASHTON CAYA $26.05
5 PREMIER MAGIC $39.70

For me #2 BACARDO is the bet of the day. Perfectly drawn and will be the strongest runner in the finish.

RACE 11
1 CHEAP RUSH $3.06
3 MONALEEN FLYER $5.76
5 BRITSLERS PATCH $7.90
7 RAZOR HAWK $8.78
6 TOP REALITY $9.75
2 QUICK HEAT $12.04
4 BLUE DUCK ROSE $22.65
8 DENNIS GIRL $34.53

RACE 12

7 JOSHUA TREE $2.29
1 LORDLY $4.31
4 MY SENORITA $8.11
3 DAMIEN FLEX $13.73
6 COOLY QUEEN $20.93
2 UNO TALKS CHEAP $23.25
8 CUSSEN PARK $35.44
10 BIG MAC MIKADO $60.02