OAKSY Doggies Tips

[mighty_tiger_79]

ANGLE PARK

race 2

3 is the top pick from 1,2

3/1,2
1,2,3
3/f
f/3
1,2/3
3/4,6,7,9

3/1,2/1,2
3/1,2/1,2,4,6,7,9
1,2,3
1,2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3,4,6,7,9

race 7

4-7-5

these are the clear top runners

4,7
4,7/4,5,7
4,5,7

4,7/4,7/5
4,7/4,5,7/4,5,7
4,5,7
4,7/4,5,7/f
4,5,7/4,5,7/f

4,7/4,7/5/f
4,7/4,7/f/5
4,7/5/f/4,7
4,7/f/5/4,7
4,7/5/4,7/f
4,7/f/4,7/5
4,5,7/4,5,7/4,5,7/f
4,5,7/4,5,7/f/4,5,7
4,5,7/f/4,5,7/4,5,7

[mighty_tiger_79]

I normally start structuring my bets out about 5 minutes before the race. As they say it is 20% handicapping/ 80% wagering.

Looking at the market purely and my own S/R stats. I have rated all runners except Ratings 1,3 better than my S/R breakeven point. I can take unders on those selections, but ideally don't want too.

It looks like they might back #1,4,7,8 as the TOP 4 in the market. Betfair suggests this too. On that basis I already know that my #2 CARRY ON STEVE will be the value.

BANK $1000 for TIER 3 today.

$33 win #2

1-2,4-2,4,7,8 $15

1-2,4-2,4 $10

4-1,2,7,8-1,2,6,7,8 $10

4-1-2,3,6,7,8 $5

7,8-1,2,4,7,8-1,2,4,6,7,8 $20

1-2,4,7,8-2,4,7,8-2,3,4,6,7,8 $25

i think utilising a few of the corporates that allow you to bet on the three totes in one transaction is a must on these meetings as each tab can differ greatly and also betfair for win betting when you have a runner that is against JOE

[Oaksnaf]

OUT $118
IN $44

BANK $926



Race 2 there is already $200 on the nose for #2 BAZZ AS BOSS can be a good indication that will be wanted in the betting throughout. Not sure if they are a betting kennel though.

Have to watch. Already at this stage based on tipsters #8 HOT OR NOT won't be looked at. More will include in exotics as is BOX 8.

Betting looks to be 2-6,7-1 roughly.

#6 is rated better than my S/R break even point so I can invest. Will take into consideration the level of betting on #2 as the market comes closer to the start. I need #4 to start at around $22 to be of some value for the exotics for mine.

Other than that we are looking at unders for #1,2,7 if I think that is what the market will do.

TOP RATING will be the value.

[Oaksnaf]

The just invested about 10% of the pool onto #4 - will have to see if that is the only bet for this runner, or if it stays in the market. Will have to include for 2nd in exotics if betting continues as is well graded and perhaps I have missed something on this runner.

[Oaksnaf]

#6 WIN $64

2-1,4,6,7,8-1,4,6,7,8-1,4,6,7,8 $25

2-6-1,4,7,8 $10

6-1,2,4,7,8-1,2,4,7,8 $16

1,4,7,8-2,6-1,2,4,6,7,8 $10

2,6-2,6-1,4,7,8 $20

BOX QUIN 1,4,7,8 $18

[Oaksnaf]

WIN #8 $15

[Oaksnaf]

NO dice in that race. The #2 drifted much further than what I originally thought.

- $114

BANK $812

Both 2nd Ratings winning at unders and being firm throughout the market was why I didn't back them. I stood them out in exotics and nearly collected with #3 just edging out #8. Not the start I wanted. But you get that.

Turns out the money on #4 was wrong. And I was deadly wrong on NOWITZKI.

[Oaksnaf]

Going through my market and what not - I am willing to RISK #7, by risk that means NO WIN bet, and I won't be including for 3rd in exotics if is around odds on. Reason for that, someone posted on another forum stats of favourites running 3rd. And there wasn't much difference between the favourite and the worst ranked runner finishing 3rd.

I will assume that the favourite will start $2.40 and under.

WIN #1 $55
WIN #4 $20
WIN #2,6 $7.50

1-2,3,4,6,7-2,3,4,6,7,8 $15
1,4-1,4,7-1,2,3,4,6,7 $25

7-1,2,4,6-1,2,3,4,6,8-1,2,3,4,6,8 $50
7-1-2,4,6 $10

BOX QUIN #1,2,4,6 $18

A big investment in this race as I am willing to risk the favourite. These are the races where you can really hit/miss.

[Oaksnaf]

Race 4 looks like they are going to be hitting #2 MONEY TO BURN hard. Not sure if this is favourite punters loading onto a selection after Race 3 refund?

WIN #1 $25
WIN #4 $27
WIN #3 $22

2-1,3,4-1,3,4,6,8 $30
2-1,3,4-1,3,4 $10
2-6-1,3,4 $10

1,3,4-1,2,3,4-1,2,3,4,6,8 $25

6-1,2,3,4-1,2,3,4 $15

[Oaksnaf]

And that is all that it takes in these TIER 3 days. My break-even point for 3rd rating is $6. Rated $6.50 and wins at $21.20 - just missed trifecta bets with #8 running 2nd.

OUT $164
IN $572

New BANK $1220

Heading into RACE 5

Will take the following quaddie for $70

2,3,4,10 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 3,6,7 / 1,2,4,5,6,7 = 19.44%

BANK $1,150

Onto Race 5 and my thinking is that JOE will back #3 who is good enough to win. Probably aided by #2 being rails and #10 pinging. Will be strong. And I have underrated looking at my market again.

Will be looking for the market with #4,10 and maybe even #6 if the money goes onto 3 more so.

[Oaksnaf]

Are these errors on betfair, this the second race in a row with a ridiculous bet on #6 at $2.20 and now $2.30 with $1,815 matched on Campaspe Tina ??

RACE 5

#4 WIN $60
#10 WIN $15
#6 WIN $5

3-2,4,10-2,4,10-2,4,6,10 $25

2,4,10-2,3,4,10-2,4,6,10 $30

JOE has #5 in market, must include.

5-2,3,4,6,10 - 2,3,4,6,10 $15

3-2,4,5,10 -2,4,5,10 $15

2,4,10-2,3,4,10-2,4,5,6,10 $10


3-2,4,10-2,4,10 $15

[Oaksnaf]

QUINELLA 2,4,6,10 $18

[Oaksnaf]

OUT $208 / Quaddie out too
IN $61

BANK $1003

Back to where we started.

[Oaksnaf]

Race 6

Have this as an open race here. Can still back unders on a few of these selections.

Basically the break-even points for my ratings are:

TOP - $2.96 / 33.7%
2nd - $5.07 / 19.7%
3rd - $6 / 16.7%
4th - $8.40 / 11.9%
5th - $13.50
6th - $22
7th - $22
LAST - $43.60

Will still back #4 if JOE agrees, will want $3.20 roughly anyway.

But the exotics in this race, will be a little more spread.

[Oaksnaf]

Race 6 - another extremely strange bet on betfair with #1...... what is going on?

#4 WIN $30 (if drifts will invest more)
#5 WIN $30
#2 WIN $10

1,4,5-1,4,5,6-1,2,4,5,6,7 $40
4-1,2,5,6,-1,2,3,5,6,7 $35
6-1,4,5-1,2,4,5 $10
5-1,2,4,6-1,2,3,4,6,7 $15

4-1,5,6-1,5,6 $5
1-4-2,5,6 $5

4-1,5,-1,2,3,5,6,7-F $10

[Oaksnaf]

Race 6 - another extremely strange bet on betfair with #1...... what is going on?

#4 WIN $30 (if drifts will invest more)
#5 WIN $30
#2 WIN $10

1,4,5-1,4,5,6-1,2,4,5,6,7 $40
4-1,2,5,6,-1,2,3,5,6,7 $35
6-1,4,5-1,2,4,5 $10
5-1,2,4,6-1,2,3,4,6,7 $15

4-1,5,6-1,5,6 $5
1-4-2,5,6 $5

4-1,5,-1,2,3,5,6,7-F $10

And that is what happens when you can find some value in the exotics with #2


OUT $190
IN $756

Days end:

BANK $1,569

Not one top rating wins today, but wagering was much improved in betting the right combinations with the right values.

[Oaksnaf]

I got my numbers messed up originally after Race 2 - I forgot to subtract a further $74.

A break up of the bets so you don't lose yourself in a profit

WIN BETS:

R1 $33 / $0
R2 $79 / $0
R3 - NO RACE
R4 $74 / $572
R5 $80 / $61
R6 $70 / $195

OUT $336
IN $828

+$492

POT 146%

EXOTICS

R1 $85 / $44
R2 $99 / $0
R3 NO RACE
R4 $90 / $0
R5 $128 / $0
R6 $120 / $561
Quaddie: $70 / $0

OUT $592
IN $605

+$13

POT 8%

BANK $1,505

[mighty_tiger_79]

good day at the office as we have come to expect

well done

[Oaksnaf]

This is something I have only recently figured out that I should be paying attention too. Splitting up all my bets into categories and same with tracks/grades/favourites etc.

It helps give me a bigger picture of where I need to invest more, or less. Given that the last race in exotics had a huge profit. It leaves you in your mind that most of the profit came from that. But in-fact it saved you from a huge exotic betting loss.

This is something you need to realise when punting - what wagers are working and why.

I invested more than double I would normally on an overlay in Race 4 on #3,4 simply because the odds available were more double my break-even S/R and certainly more than double my actual ratings. I bet in reverse in a way, larger wagers are placed more often on runners above $5 than they are below $5.


Initially I did have a problem even placing $20 on a $10 pop. But now I have my mind on track to work in the correct way - and that is - betting the overlays hard. But you need the numbers to back you up and get your handicapping in order so your S/R make sense and your not having your 4th selection have a higher S/R than your Top etc.

TIER 3 magic tomorrow !

[mighty_tiger_79]

your first sentence is a must

there are tracks where you will perform better at

you will find you can hit grade 5 healesville races in the same manner you hit FFA races at shepparton for example

i would be more confident betting 400m at horsham than the 400m at gawler for example across all grades