OAKSY Doggies Tips

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 8

2 CROSS CUT $3.50
1 BELLA CLARE $4.32
7 CHECK MY SWAGGER $7.32
5 DYNA OFERA $8.13
10 ALLEN NATE $10.04
3 STAGGERED $15.30
8 WHY NOT LINDSAY $28.79
4 JOJO JUNIOR $43.88

[Squids]

AG12 no.6

[Squids]

AG12 no.6

winner

[Oaksnaf]

HEALESVILLE

RACE 1

2 RUTHLESS STAGGER $3.62
6 BEAR OF ZEUS $4.96
8 DONS LADY $6.12
7 EL GARI $7.56
1 MR NICE GUY $8.40
5 SPOT THE PATCH $9.33

RACE 2

1 DREAMERS DISEASE $3.84
2 VE DU FEAR $4.74
8 UNDER TAKER $5.85
5 BOY DEXTER $8.02
4 DROOLIN KNOCKA $11.00
3 BUZZ CUTTER $12.22
7 ROMAN DELIGHT $16.77

RACE 3

3 FEARSOME WARRIOR $3.28
6 EXCELLENT TALENT $5.56
4 CAPTAINS MOUNT $6.87
1 HILLVIEW JAKE $7.63
8 MAXZIVA $11.63
7 RAUCOUS $12.92
5 SOUTHWOOD STONE $21.88
2 BLUE TO BITS $33.35

RACE 4

2 ALLEN BARRY $2.94
4 RIPPLEBROOK JAN $6.16
5 DR SANSCHA $8.44
8 ONYA JACK $10.43
1 DR JAMIE $11.58
3 MY ULTRA JET $12.87
7 LARAHS WISH $15.89
6 LIGHTNING TESS $17.66


RACE 5

3 DR SUNOVA $3.22
8 BUBADANG $5.45
1 DR WILLO $6.06
2 WILL HE BOLT $10.26
7 KRUEZER ON FIRE $12.67
6 TWEETMAN $14.08
4 MY SENORITA $19.31
9 GO WILD PHIL $23.84


RACE 6

2 CATCHING FIRE $2.73
4 KOKO KOLA $5.14
3 RYLEES ENFORCER $7.83
8 UNIQUE VENOM $8.70
1 HERADIAS $10.74
5 DEMONSTROUS $20.21
6 PURE DECEPTION $30.80
7 ALWAYS PUZZLED $46.95


RACE 7

3 GARDAM ACE $2.16
2 REGAL GLADIATOR $7.65
1 DR WANGDANG $9.45
6 RAZOR HAWK $10.50
5 FALLS ROAD MAN $16.00
7 KAMBA $17.77
8 HERO OCTANE $21.94
4 JACKS BRUTUS $24.38

RACE 8

2 EARLY RETURN $2.74
3 DR EZECHIEL $6.37
5 RAINBOWS GIFT $7.08
6 SURFONIC $10.79
1 WALK DON’T RUN $11.98
7 LEAD SINGER $14.80
4 DR THANOA $16.44
8 FUEL PUMP $30.93

RACE 9

1 ALLEN EMMETT $2.40
6 EVER SO SWEET $5.57
5 SUPER RICO $6.88
10 JACAS MATE $11.65
2 UNFANTASIZED $12.95
3 CHASER LESSON $19.73
8 LANEY KEATS $37.13
7 BELJAY BLITZ $56.59

RACE 10

6 GOOD FOR YOU $3.71
5 HERE COMES ALEX $4.58
8 DINS ECHO $8.61
1 WARM IT UP $9.57
2 BLACK QUILL $11.81
9 CHILE RUM $13.13
4 ALLEN KERO $14.58
3 TSUNAMI JOE $16.20

RACE 11

10 FIERY ANN $4.20
6 MUST DO IT $4.67
7 DARK WARRIOR $5.76
1 DR DUFUS $7.90
2 FEARSOME BOY $12.04
3 JACKS ELLE $13.38
5 BLAZING MADAM $16.52
8 TOW AWAY $34.54

ACE 12

2 IM PUMPED $3.54
4 TRUE WISHES $5.40
7 LASTING EFFECT $6.00
3 SOUTHWOOD JUMA $7.41
6 DR AYE JAY $11.29
1 ELITE STREAK $12.54
5 SOUTHERN EXPRESS $23.61
8 IMPERFECTION $49.35

[Groover]

Got 3 dogs in today at strathalbyn
R5 no.1 lango - should go well from the red, can run good sections and is strong. Main danger in the race will come from number 2
R8 no.1 spiral bound - track specialist who should be winning
R9 no.7 shady tree - ran well in recent runs, doesnt win often but will be good place value

[Groover]

Got 3 dogs in today at strathalbyn
R5 no.1 lango - should go well from the red, can run good sections and is strong. Main danger in the race will come from number 2 *winner* paid $3.20 and $1.50
2 ran 2nd quin paid $4.00 exacta $9.10
R8 no.1 spiral bound - track specialist who should be winning *missed the start ran 5th*
R9 no.7 shady tree - ran well in recent runs, doesnt win often but will be good place value *checked 1st turn ran 4th*

[shake'n'bake]

Long time reader first time poster...

Heading out to Angle Park tonight, anything we should be following?

Any help would be appreciated

[Groover]

Long time reader first time poster...

Heading out to Angle Park tonight, anything we should be following?

Any help would be appreciated

I have 4 dogs in tonight, all should be a chance.
R1 #6 Lango
R7 #5 Spiral Bound
R9 #7 Miss Woods
R10#6 Shady Tree

Ill be boxing Spiral bound and Shady Tree so keep a lookout!

[stampy]

ouch!

[Oaksnaf]

HEALESVILLE

RACE 1

5 HORIZON BOY $3.85
3 MRS DIRTS $4.75
1 ABBEY LEE $5.28
2 RED FLYNN $7.24
8 SWAHILI SAM $11.04
9 CHUICK PIES $18.70
7 ROMAN DELIGHT $28.50
10 COOL OPAL $43.44

RACE 2

6 RUTHLESS STAGGER $3.26
4 UNDER TAKER $4.97
7 BEARD OF ZEUS $7.57
1 BUZZ CUTTER $8.41
3 DROOLIN KNOCKA $10.39
2 EL GARI $11.54
5 BOY DEXTER $26.81
8 MR NICE GUY $50.46

RACE 3

4 SENOR CONAN $3.70
1 SMASH IT $6.27
7 DR GEE GEE $6.96
6 UNFLEXABLE $8.60
3 MAYBE NOW $10.61
8 PURE PROOF $11.79
5 MAGENTA SKYE $13.10
2 DASHING REDLEGS $17.97

RACE 4

3 TWEETMAN $2.96
6 MERCILESS $5.57
1 CARRY THE SPIRIT $6.88
9 BOOM BOOM SHIRAZ $10.48
4 MY SENORITA $11.64
7 HERODIUM $14.38
8 ARWHO $21.91
5 WICKED WARLORD $24.35

RACE 5

4 DINS ECHO $3.39
1 KID CONDOR $5.74
2 ACOLA STAR $7.09
3 ARVOS HANNAH $7.88
8 EVER SO SWEET $8.75
5 DR DUFUS $13.34
7 CITY STAR $22.59
6 DR JAMIE $34.42

RACE 6

2 IM PUMPED $3.98
7 DARK WARRIOR $4.91
5 GOOD FOR YOU $6.74
1 ALLEN EMMET $7.49
3 GARDAM ACE $9.25
6 FEARSOME WARRIOR $12.68
4 BUBUDANG $21.48
8 ALLEN BARRY $32.74

RACE 7

5 BLACK ANGUS $3.91
8 CHEAP RUSH $4.83
7 NOLEN $5.36
6 DR EZECHIEL $8.17
3 DENISE MAGIC $11.21
2 SIPPIN SIZZURP $13.84
4 RAUCOUS $21.10
1 LUSCIOUS LILY $49.02

RACE 8

1 CEE WALLER $3.33
8 RAINBOWS GIFT $4.11
4 DIRTY MARY $5.64
5 GOLD BULLION $11.79
7 ZALDINI $13.10
2 FUEL PUMP $16.17
6 DR THANOS $17.97

RACE 9

2 GOLD BREAK $3.49
3 MR RUMBY $5.91
6 REST AND RESTORE $6.57
4 BRING IT HOME $8.11
5 MONALEEN FLYER $10.01
1 GIFTED JAY JAY $12.36
8 NORTHERN GUNNA $18.83
7 ALWAYS PUZZLED $28.71

RACE 10

4 BARCARDO $3.65
3 KEV BALE $5.01
1 BULLBAR JEANNE $6.18
2 SUNSET DIVA $6.87
6 CANTIKA WANITA $10.47
5 SOUTHERN EXPRESS $19.70
8 BLUE TO BITS $21.89
7 TSUNAMI JOE $37.06

RACE 11

1 AN THAT $4.27
9 MINER RUSH $5.27
2 FIERY ANN $7.23
3 CAPTAINS MOUNT $8.03
6 GOLD SIENNA $9.92
7 ALLEN KERO $11.02
8 DR SINBAD $13.61
4 APACHE GALO $20.74

RACE 12

3 GOTTEM $3.63
8 CENTRALIAN $4.48
6 LEKTRA CONCRETE $7.59
1 MEXICO JOE $8.43
4 BLUE ROOKIE $9.37
10 FLOPSY DIXON $11.57
7 POWER ELECT $17.63

Hope the good HVL form continues.

[stampy]

gunna clean up today, i can feel it!!!!!

[stampy]

top rater wins the first and pays 6.90 here and 11.80 nsw!

[stampy]

took the first 3 top raters in a patent multi, looking at $250ish profit for $7 outlay go the #4!

[stampy]

ah well still a return of $30 for me $7!

[Oaksnaf]

When your winning. Your not losing.

TIER 3 today. Yesterday needed a different wagering approach, think I was still stuck in TIER 3 mode.

I will try and write down a few wagers that I place throughout the day to see if anyone else has thoughts on the wagering side and what I am missing.

BALLARAT

RACE 1

1 CARN BANDIT $3.93
4 AUDATIOUS $4.85
2 CARRY ON STEVE $6.66
7 FIVEWAY ARANDT $8.22
8 LARAHS WISH $9.13
6 SHOWOOD ELLIE $15.46
3 SANCTIFIED $17.18
5 TIM TAM TIM $29.09

There is only really speed from 1,2,4,7,8.

#1 will enjoy the grade of runners and the rails as the other ones with pace who need to cross will run off the bend when weakening. #4 can probably hold outside #1 with #2 just in behind. #6 will want to move towards the rails and probably causes havov with #5 TIM TAM TIM.

This is a good exotic race for mine, there will be no value on the top rating as JOE will back in. The value runners seem to be 2,4. Which will boast well as I have these featuring.

RACE 2

6 NOWITZKI $2.89
2 BAZZ AS BOSS $4.89
8 HOT OR NOT $8.29
7 CLASSIQUE $9.21
1 PADDY CAMBAZ $11.37
4 SOUTHWOOD QUEEN $15.60
3 FULL OF BUBBLES $23.77
5 MR ZED $40.26


RACE 3

1 CAN OF WORMS $3.70
4 TOMMIE HUNT $5.08
7 WAVE THYME $5.64
6 AMY SPECIAL $7.74
2 VAPOUR KING $10.61
3 KOBUTA $14.56
8 FLASHING BESSY $24.65
5 HAY AFFAIR TWO $46.39

For me this is an interest race. A few runners drawn inside out and the T1 will be interesting. #1 might want to get off the rails early on in the race. But will still want to hold rails down back. It is important that #4 is close to the rails early, otherwise doesn't handle running on outside of other runners very well and is likely to drift off the track. This can be said for #2 who I don't find many reasons to back here.

#7 must lead here otherwise may be in for a shock. Will probably be found in the market, but there is pace from 4,6 on inside and with 1 drifting off and possibly 3, this could cause issues. Am willing to risk, especially if is on @ $2.00

RACE 4

The favourite sustained a spike wound to the left hock L/S. Litter-mate also won debut at WBL then failed next start. This runner seems slightly better and market suggested that on debut. The spike wound must have been severe enough for 10 days as I have seen runners given no stand-down and only 3 days for this injury.

2 MONEY TO BURN $3.11
1 ROCKAFELLA $5.85
4 WATTA DESTINY $6.50
3 JOHNNY MANG $8.03
6 DADSMAN $11.01
8 WHERES SUZIE $15.11
9 JAY KING $23.02
7 EXTRA CLASSY $35.09

A few wide runners drawn middle boxes give advantage to pace from BOX 2. I think can LAW and might even be able to get $3.50 which I would be happy with.

RACE 5

4 ELITE DIGGER $3.01
10 LACE OUT $5.10
3 OUR FIREMAN $7.77
2 SIXTEEN CANDLES $8.63
6 CAMPASPE TINA $11.84
8 CLINICAL FINISH $14.62
5 JOHNS PEDRO $22.28
7 YARANYACKA $33.96

Hard to get in front of these railers early and considering 5,6 racing patterns I think 7,8 will find it hard to get into this race. #4 to LAW.

[Oaksnaf]

RACE 6

4 HES SCHMICK $3.78
5 MATTY MOOSE $5.19
1 MAJOR SMASH $6.40
6 JIMMI POWER $9.76
2 CHILI DIPPER $10.84
7 READ MY MIND $12.05
3 PLAYBOY MANSION $16.52
8 HOLLY MADE ME $20.40

[mighty_tiger_79]

goodluck Oaksy

i think the wagering approach should be connected into the confidence of your market but also dependant upon the grade of the meeting

[Oaksnaf]

Hi MT. I normally wager around what JOE does. I write down the reason why I think they will find a runner at what price and keep a rough record of whether this is a good trend for false favourites and underrated runners. There is a lot of reaction betting and betting trends to find out to see where I can fit my markets into and get an edge ahead of JOE public.

[mighty_tiger_79]

and depending on how confident JOE is compared to you, then the money is in the exotics i would think. the quinella and exactas i would hit harder without JOE and also depending on your confidence you can then spread the bets out to trifectas and first 4s and should get OVERS.

[Oaksnaf]

I normally start structuring my bets out about 5 minutes before the race. As they say it is 20% handicapping/ 80% wagering.

Looking at the market purely and my own S/R stats. I have rated all runners except Ratings 1,3 better than my S/R breakeven point. I can take unders on those selections, but ideally don't want too.

It looks like they might back #1,4,7,8 as the TOP 4 in the market. Betfair suggests this too. On that basis I already know that my #2 CARRY ON STEVE will be the value.

BANK $1000 for TIER 3 today.

$33 win #2

1-2,4-2,4,7,8 $15

1-2,4-2,4 $10

4-1,2,7,8-1,2,6,7,8 $10

4-1-2,3,6,7,8 $5

7,8-1,2,4,7,8-1,2,4,6,7,8 $20

1-2,4,7,8-2,4,7,8-2,3,4,6,7,8 $25